EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

ROW PERM Certifications (FY/CY Matrix)-- Updated with FY2011 Q1&Q2 data

CY-PD-- FY-2007-- FY-2008 -- FY-2009 -- FY-2010 - Q1&Q2-2011 --- CY Total
2005 ---2,318 -----186 ---------21 ----------12 ---------1 ---------2,538
2006 --24,695 -----754 --------254 ----------70 ---------4 --------25,777
2007 --26,680 --14,473 --------661 -------1,523 --------44 --------44,381
2008 --- N/A ---13,895 -----14,059 ------ 6,574 -----2,451 --------36,979
2009 --- N/A ----- N/A ----------8 ------21,199 -------737 --------21,944
2010 --- N/A ----- N/A --------N/A -------7,877 -----9,232 --------17,109
2011 --- N/A ----- N/A --------N/A ---------N/A -----2,811 --------14,387
Total -53,693 --29,308 ----16,003 -------37,255 ----15,280

Columns show FY PERM approvals, rows show PD by CY.

Q& Spec,
As we can see ROW 2011(Q1+Q2) PERM had lot of cleanup of CY2010 and prior year cases, not sure what the Prevailing Wage data for 2008 & 2010 shows, similar to FY 2011?

[qesehmk]

GCW ...

If you insert line breaks ... you can turn your thought into a haiku as well :-)

Thank you, Q.


Today's wisdom: Data is like mashed potato. If you make flat of mashed potato, it is called Burger. If you make globe of it, it is called Bonda

[qesehmk]

Veni

I love this format. Thanks a ton.

You are right about 2010 PERM surge. However mind you .... in 2011 we will not only see 15280*2 but also the remnant of the surge from 2010 in the I140 and 485 line. Again ... hate to rain on this parade ... but you know what .... knowledge is liberating ...
The more I think about it .... the more our fate hinges on what CO really meant by 12K extra visas from EB1? Did he mean 12K half year ... full year ... including EB5 .. or excluding EB5!!! Who knows !!

ROW PERM Certifications (FY/CY Matrix)-- Updated with FY2011 Q1&Q2 data

CY-PD-- FY-2007-- FY-2008 -- FY-2009 -- FY-2010 - Q1&Q2-2011 --- CY Total
2005 ---2,318 -----186 ---------21 ----------12 ---------1 ---------2,538
2006 --24,695 -----754 --------254 ----------70 ---------4 --------25,777
2007 --26,680 --14,473 --------661 -------1,523 --------44 --------44,381
2008 --- N/A ---13,895 -----14,059 ------ 6,574 -----2,451 --------36,979
2009 --- N/A ----- N/A ----------8 ------21,199 -------737 --------21,944
2010 --- N/A ----- N/A --------N/A -------7,877 -----9,232 --------17,109
2011 --- N/A ----- N/A --------N/A ---------N/A -----2,811 --------14,387
Total -53,693 --29,308 ----16,003 -------37,255 ----15,280

Columns show FY PERM approvals, rows show PD by CY.

Q& Spec,
As we can see ROW 2011(Q1+Q2) PERM had lot of cleanup of CY2010 and prior year cases, not sure what the Prevailing Wage data for 2008 & 2010 shows, similar to FY 2011?

[veni001]

For the sale of completeness, here is the analysis of the PWD data based on the minimum education and experience required.


Min Education ----------------- No. ---- % --- % Education
EB2
Doctorate(PhD) -------------- 1,828 --- 3.94% ---- 5.56%
Master's ------------------- 19,254 -- 41.54% --- 58.56%
Bachelor's + 5 -------------- 9,935 -- 21.43% --- 30.22%
Other Degree (JD, MD, etc.) - 1,862 --- 4.02% ---- 5.66%
EB2Total ------------------- 32,879 -- 70.93% -- 100.00%

EB3
Bachelor's ------------------ 8,742 -- 18.86% --- 64.89%
Other Degree (JD, MD, etc.) --- 162 --- 0.35% ---- 1.20%
Associate's ------------------- 636 --- 1.37% ---- 4.72%
High School/GED --------------- 714 --- 1.54% ---- 5.30%
None ------------------------ 3,219 --- 6.94% --- 23.89%
EB3 Total ------------------ 13,473 -- 29.07% -- 100.00%

Grand Total---------------- 46,352 - 100.00%

I don't think it tells us anything new. The overall % split between EB2 and EB3 has remained about the same over the last year.

As we have discussed earlier, different Countries have different individual EB2/EB3 splits, ranging from probably India having most EB2 to Mexico having least. Country data is not part of the PWD data.

Since we don't know these, the utility of the data is limited.

Spec,
Good work!

Few points to make a note of... while considering PW data to draw conclusions at PERM certifications
1. We know no one want to apply in EB3 anymore...... this is FACT! unless they don't have a choice.
2. Since we saw 60-70% decline across the board for EB1, those cases will reflect in EB2(new cases)--> PW Data reflect this.
3. Any I&C supposed to be EB1 to EB2 cases will not affect SOFAD ,at least for now! ( what is this % )
Note: I&C account for 50% of PERM certifications(average)
4. As we have seen from our previous analysis 80% EBI&C PERMs on average are EB2, but what percentage of these are new Vs Porting?
5. Which means about 55% of ROW PERM certifications are EB2 (I am still not able get good handle on this!)

[veni001]

Veni

I love this format. Thanks a ton.

You are right about 2010 PERM surge. However mind you .... in 2011 we will not only see 15280*2 but also the remnant of the surge from 2010 in the I140 and 485 line. Again ... hate to rain on this parade ... but you know what .... knowledge is liberating ...
The more I think about it .... the more our fate hinges on what CO really meant by 12K extra visas from EB1? Did he mean 12K half year ... full year ... including EB5 .. or excluding EB5!!! Who knows !!

Thank you Q,
Please see few points i brought up to consider from my reply to Spec's Q1&Q2 2011 PW data analysis.

[gcwait2007]

The more I think about it .... the more our fate hinges on what CO really meant by 12K extra visas from EB1? Did he mean 12K half year ... full year ... including EB5 .. or excluding EB5!!! Who knows !!

What?????? You are crashing many people's positive thoughts, high energy and dreams! (that includes mine )

Some where I read: AILA has reported that the EB-2 cut-off dates in Visa Bulletin in May 2011 may progress ahead substantially because of large unused EB-1 numbers since October 2010 since it has about 12,000 unused EB-2 numbers. I am not able to access that AILA document to validate my point unfortunately.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q/ Spec & Others,

So the SOFAD summation on conservative basis is as follows:

EB1 will provide minimum 12K

EB2 ROW-M-P will provide 34,434 - 27,406 =7028 ~ 7K

EB5 will provide 7854-1880 = 5974 ~ 6K

Total SOFAD on conservative basis = 25K.

I am not really happy to calculate this way

There are upgrades and then PWMB.

However I am prepared to accept whatever I cannot change and destiny happens...

Here is 1 thing that may make you a bit happier. There is almost 6K EB2IC quota missing from your numbers. So the SOFAD will be 30-31K.

GCW, This in fact is a very good and simplistic summary of the current situation minus any hifi calculation.
- I still hope that since the 12k news came from the man himself there is credibility about it with still another half year to go where definitely there should be no explosion in EB1 applications 12K definitely looks very safe.
- The EB2 ROW SOFAD has been calculated by many ways most of the approaces have reached more than 8k however many people do believe that we may not see any SOFAD from EB2 ROW at all. According to the trackitt trend 8K is a conservative call.
- On Eb5 also your numbers are fairly conservative.
- What’s missing is the I/C regular cap, as Q points out which is 5.6K for this year. SOFAD by definition means visa numbers from all sources, since EB2 is so spillover dependant we have kind of forgotten the regular cap and thanks to porting being equal to the annual cap (Worst case scenario) its effect has /will become minimal.
Since all you assumptions are either conservative or at best centrist I would say that 30K is a fairly conservative figure. This would put the date at around 01-FEB-2007.

[TeddyKoochu]

What?????? You are crashing many people's positive thoughts, high energy and dreams! (that includes mine )

Some where I read: AILA has reported that the EB-2 cut-off dates in Visa Bulletin in May 2011 may progress ahead substantially because of large unused EB-1 numbers since October 2010 since it has about 12,000 unused EB-2 numbers. I am not able to access that AILA document to validate my point unfortunately.

Veni

I love this format. Thanks a ton.

You are right about 2010 PERM surge. However mind you .... in 2011 we will not only see 15280*2 but also the remnant of the surge from 2010 in the I140 and 485 line. Again ... hate to rain on this parade ... but you know what .... knowledge is liberating ...
The more I think about it .... the more our fate hinges on what CO really meant by 12K extra visas from EB1? Did he mean 12K half year ... full year ... including EB5 .. or excluding EB5!!! Who knows !!

Guys I believe that the June bulletin will definitely be a litmus test on this. In the may bulletin we saw 4.5K numbers being allocated, now if we see another 4-4.5K in June then we can be fairly sure that the 12K is EB1. I think the May parade was really halted by the overhype on porting and the new inventory is delayed because they seem to be applying the ported cases to the rigt category. Lets hope for the best. I certainly hope that there will be a minimum of 1 month’s movement in June. Now to give you an idea of the Kazarian memo impact people with 35 publications are getting RFE's while until last year people with 5 publications would have a smooth sailing.

[qesehmk]

Sorry ... guys here is a correction.
The numbers will certainly be at least equal to last years SOFAD. Probably some more. Upto 31. However if it has to be more than that then EB1 needs to cough up 12K more in second half. Now that - 31+12 = 43K SOFAD in my opinion is the absolute top line i.e. most optimistic forecast sufficient to make July 2007 current.

The downside to this is ...
EB2 ROW demand stays same as last year.
EB1 12K number was full year and included EB5.

That would still mean 24K SOFAD of which 6K could go to PWMB + porting. So 18K should still bring EB2IC to Oct 2006. But as I said that's the pessimistic scenario. But as you can see the real unknown at this point is not EB2ROW - given all the spectacular work that veni and Spec and others have done. The real unknown is EB1 itself and what that 12K is really ... full year / half year / EB5 in or out?

So take your pick and move date from oct 2006 through Jul 2007.

Again sorry ... don't really mean to dampen anybody's spirit..

Have a great weekend!!!

Thank you Q,
Please see few points i brought up to consider from my reply to Spec's Q1&Q2 2011 PW data analysis.

What?????? You are crashing many people's positive thoughts, high energy and dreams! (that includes mine )

Some where I read: AILA has reported that the EB-2 cut-off dates in Visa Bulletin in May 2011 may progress ahead substantially because of large unused EB-1 numbers since October 2010 since it has about 12,000 unused EB-2 numbers. I am not able to access that AILA document to validate my point unfortunately.

[gcwait2007]

This would put the date at around 01-FEB-2007.

Mine is 20th Feb 2007.

I am a firm believer of destiny.

If there is destiny that I should get the GC by Sept 2011, no one can stop it.

If it is otherwise, then all I wish that I should be prepared in advance so that so that I don't feel disappointed later and spending a infuriated year ahead...

[qesehmk]

Now to give you an idea of the Kazarian memo impact people with 35 publications are getting RFE's while until last year people with 5 publications would have a smooth sailing.

Teddy thanks.. Good piece of info.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy thanks.. Good piece of info.

Q here is the link you can have a first hand account.
- http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...2-first-author

[Spectator]

Q here is the link you can have a first hand account.
- http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...2-first-author

Teddy,

I read that one too. I think the key point might be there are only 54 citations on 22 papers. That raises doubts on International Acclaim and the impact of the work.

Have you noticed also that (TSC in particular) have approved a lot of EB1 cases over the past week or so.

EB2-ROW (No M-P) continues to rise and now stands at 94% of last year's total at this point of the year.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I read that one too. I think the key point might be there are only 54 citations on 22 papers. That raises doubts on International Acclaim and the impact of the work.

Have you noticed also that (TSC in particular) have approved a lot of EB1 cases over the past week or so.

EB2-ROW (No M-P) continues to rise and now stands at 94% of last year's total at this point of the year.

Here is another one. The point is until last year these cases would have seen straight approvals.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...sc-please-help

I will research the Trackitt EB2 Trend and write soon.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

EB2-ROW (No M-P) continues to rise and now stands at 94% of last year's total at this point of the year.

Spec
Teddy keeps looking at the 485 tracker which shows YoY reduction in approvals. Teddy correct me if i am wrong.

I am feeling that with this trend EB2 ROW will yield the same numbers as last year (do you remember what that was?).

@ spec, the current trend is 89%. I agree with you that its worsening.
@ q, I believe the situation has worsened we will get lesser SOFAD from EB2 ROW than last year. I have refined things a bit added an effectiveness factor based on last year's effectiveness for this method.

Details below.

Whole of FY 2010 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 513 + 63 + 5 + 34 = 615
Whole of FY 2009 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 720 + 80 + 7 + 43 = 850

So 2010 ROW consumption should be (615/850) * (40-5.5) = 25K.
2010 ROW SOFAD = 43.5 - 25 - 6 = 12.5K

Actual 2010 SOFAD from EB2 ROW was 9.5K so we should have a effectiveness factor which is ~ 75%.

Now

7 Months of FY 2011 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 273 + 32 + 2 + 27 = 334
7 Months of FY 2010 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 310 + 41 + 3 + 21 = 375

Current Rate = 89%.

Now EB2 ROW SOFAD would be

EB2 ROW + M + P consumption 2010 = 43.5 -9.5 -6 = 28K.
EB2 ROW SOFAD this year = 40-5.5- (89/100 * 28) = 9.5K

Multiplying with the effectiveness factor of 75% this would be 7K.

[Spectator]

Teddy,

I think this year is particularly difficult for forecasting; a number of factors have changed, so it's good to try to use different and innovative methods.

I have 3 or 4 different simulations running for both EB1 and EB2-ROW, some of which give quite different results to my old method.

Really, I set them up to compare after the FY has finished and we have actual numbers. I can then assess if one or other copes better than a traditional analysis.

Until then, I treat the results as interesting, but too uncertain to discuss in public.

[gcwait2007]

Teddy,

I think this year is particularly difficult for forecasting; a number of factors have changed, so it's good to try to use different and innovative methods.

I have 3 or 4 different simulations running for both EB1 and EB2-ROW, some of which give quite different results to my old method.

Really, I set them up to compare after the FY has finished and we have actual numbers. I can then assess if one or other copes better than a traditional analysis.

Until then, I treat the results as interesting, but too uncertain to discuss in public.

The more we think and guesstimate about SOFAD with the available data, we get anxious and unconscious fears of lesser SOFAD.

The best option is to take a break and wait for new data (I-485 pending inventory list as of 04/01/2011) to come out. The new list may provide a closer perspective.

[veni001]

Spec,
Good work!

Few points to make a note of... while considering PW data to draw conclusions at PERM certifications
1. We know no one want to apply in EB3 anymore...... this is FACT! unless they don't have a choice.
2. Since we saw 60-70% decline across the board for EB1, those cases will reflect in EB2(new cases)--> PW Data reflect this.
3. Any I&C supposed to be EB1 to EB2 cases will not affect PD movement from net SOFAD ,at least for now! ( what is this % )
Note: I&C account for 50% of PERM certifications(average)
4. As we have seen from our previous analysis 80% EBI&C PERMs on average are EB2, but what percentage of these are new Vs Porting?
5. Which means about 55% of ROW PERM certifications are EB2 (I am still not able get good handle on this!)

@ spec, the current trend is 89%. I agree with you that its worsening.
@ q, I believe the situation has worsened we will get lesser SOFAD from EB2 ROW than last year. I have refined things a bit added an effectiveness factor based on last year's effectiveness for this method.

Details below.

Whole of FY 2010 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 513 + 63 + 5 + 34 = 615
Whole of FY 2009 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 720 + 80 + 7 + 43 = 850

So 2010 ROW consumption should be (615/850) * (40-5.5) = 25K.
2010 ROW SOFAD = 43.5 - 25 - 6 = 12.5K

Actual 2010 SOFAD from EB2 ROW was 9.5K so we should have a effectiveness factor which is ~ 75%.

Now

7 Months of FY 2011 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 273 + 32 + 2 + 27 = 334
7 Months of FY 2010 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 310 + 41 + 3 + 21 = 375

Current Rate = 89%.

Now EB2 ROW SOFAD would be

EB2 ROW + M + P consumption 2010 = 43.5 -9.5 -6 = 28K.
EB2 ROW SOFAD this year = 40-5.5- (89/100 * 28) = 9.5K

Multiplying with the effectiveness factor of 75% this would be 7K.

Teddy,
Nice work, I agree ROW may not yield as much spillover as it did in FY 2010. But this is expected with the exponential drop in EB1 filings/approvals.

Comparing PERM data for 2010 & Q1+Q2 for 2011

-------------FY 2010 -------Q1&Q2 FY 2011----- %(Full-year)
ROW,MP ----37,225------------15,280 --------------82%
IND ---------28,930------------17,854 -------------123%
C -------------4,052 -------------2,113 -------------104%

1. Even though ROW PERM filings are less this year compared to FY 2010, % of EB2 is higher this year compared to last year, which means we are definitely not going to get as much Spillover as we have seen from ROW last year! this is given now.
2. If we offset increase in EB2I&C PERM for decrease in EB1I&C (resulting new EB2), means traditional & porting EB2I&C filings are more or less equal to FY 2010.
3. We have to revisit EB1 to account for full year Spillover to EB2(i would think this will be 20k+)
4. I am not expecting any change in EB4 or EB5 compared to FY 2010.

[qesehmk]

Teddy
I agree here. That's why I have two factors in my model
SYA - same year approval rate
R485 - ROW EB2 485 filings in 2011 as % of 2010 filings.

Multiplying with the effectiveness factor of 75% this would be 7K.

The more we think and guesstimate about SOFAD with the available data, we get anxious and unconscious fears of lesser SOFAD.

The best option is to take a break and wait for new data (I-485 pending inventory list as of 04/01/2011) to come out. The new list may provide a closer perspective.

GCW ... actually the PERM data that came out this week was something new. But yes I agree sometimes we can beat it to death and we could still turn out wrong!! So we might as well take a chill pill.

[anuran]

The best option is to take a break and wait for new data (I-485 pending inventory list as of 04/01/2011) to come out. The new list may provide a closer perspective.

If the inventory that is to come, is to be as of 04/01/2011, what are the chances that you will see an appreciable difference with respect to Jan'11 inventory. The Dec'09-Mar'10 inventory data showed that pending cases for India was down by 1132. And the cutoff dates moved by 3 months during that period. Keeping that in mind, and the fact that the cutoff dates for India did not budge during Jan'11-April'11, chances for any change in numbers for India in the new inventory is nil. In fact the pending cases might have appreciated. On the other hand, it might have some useful info for China. With respect to ROW, EB2-ROW being current, inventory data is of no use. Trackitt shows that CIS approved 12 EB2-I in April. All the approved petitions had PD in 2006 and older. There have been no approvals after 04/19. That may or may not mean that CIS has just about exhausted the annual quota for India EB2. All in all my contention is the if the inventory is dated 1st of April, then there will be no useful info for EB2-I.

[kd2008]

PERM audit processing has moved to Dec 2009. According to trackitt there are very few audits starting Jan 2010 and beyond. So going ahead we will be looking at new and porting demand mostly. This is good. We will be able to firm up the number of cases pending from 2006 till now in a pretty confident way.

[Spectator]

The more we think and guesstimate about SOFAD with the available data, we get anxious and unconscious fears of lesser SOFAD.

The best option is to take a break and wait for new data (I-485 pending inventory list as of 04/01/2011) to come out. The new list may provide a closer perspective.

I agree.

The information relating to PERM beyond July 2007 and PWMB in general was well worthwhile discussing.

Now, I will wait until (if ever) USCIS decide to publish the next Inventory.

In the meantime, I leave you all with a compilation of all the figures for CY Priority date PERM Approvals by FY of Approval. First, the individual Countries/Groups, followed by a summary for China+India and Mexico-Philippines-ROW.

In future, having these in a single post may prove useful.

All Certified PERM by Calendar Year of Receipt (PD) by FY of Approval

CHINA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 186 ------- 8 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------------- 0 ------- 194
2006 ------- 3,053 ------ 39 ------ 16 ------- 3 ------------- 0 ----- 3,111
2007 ------- 3,607 --- 1,916 ----- 179 ----- 198 ------------- 5 ----- 5,905
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,365 --- 1,915 ----- 666 ----------- 188 ----- 4,134
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 2 --- 2,169 ------------ 60 ----- 2,231
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 1,016 --------- 1,369 ----- 2,385
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----------- 493 ------- 493
Total ------ 6,846 --- 3,328 --- 2,112 --- 4,052 --------- 2,115 ---- 18,453


INDIA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 393 ------ 27 ------- 5 ------- 1 ------------- 0 ------- 426
2006 ------ 11,461 ----- 108 ------ 54 ------ 11 ------------- 1 ---- 11,635
2007 ------ 12,719 --- 8,335 ----- 962 --- 1,005 ------------ 43 ---- 23,064
2008 ----------- 0 --- 8,099 -- 10,358 --- 3,702 --------- 1,193 ---- 23,352
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 8 -- 15,054 ----------- 940 ---- 16,002
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 9,157 -------- 11,849 ---- 21,006
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 3,804 ----- 3,804
Total ----- 24,573 -- 16,569 -- 11,387 -- 28,930 -------- 17,830 ---- 99,289


MEXICO ---- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 403 ------ 32 ------- 3 ------- 3 ------------- 0 ------- 441
2006 ------- 2,975 ----- 142 ------ 39 ------ 16 ------------- 2 ----- 3,174
2007 ------- 3,064 --- 1,409 ----- 141 ----- 126 ------------- 8 ----- 4,748
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,861 ----- 591 ----- 878 ----------- 528 ----- 3,858
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 1 --- 1,787 ------------ 73 ----- 1,861
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----- 496 ----------- 572 ----- 1,068
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----------- 187 ------- 187
Total ------ 6,442 --- 3,444 ----- 775 --- 3,306 --------- 1,370 ---- 15,337


PHIL. ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 192 ------- 9 ------- 1 ------- 3 ------------- 0 ------- 205
2006 ------- 1,913 ------ 64 ------ 19 ------ 15 ------------- 0 ----- 2,011
2007 ------- 2,716 --- 1,519 ------ 99 ------ 84 ------------- 1 ----- 4,419
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,403 --- 1,510 ----- 483 ----------- 145 ----- 3,541
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 2 --- 1,986 ------------ 48 ----- 2,036
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----- 734 ----------- 833 ----- 1,567
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----------- 219 ------- 219
Total ------ 4,821 --- 2,995 --- 1,631 --- 3,305 --------- 1,246 ---- 13,998


ROW ------- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 ------- 1,723 ----- 145 ------ 17 ------- 6 ------------- 1 ----- 1,892
2006 ------ 19,807 ----- 548 ----- 196 ------ 39 ------------- 2 ---- 20,592
2007 ------ 20,900 -- 11,545 --- 1,421 --- 1,313 ------------ 35 ---- 35,214
2008 ----------- 0 -- 10,631 -- 11,958 --- 5,213 --------- 1,769 ---- 29,571
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 5 -- 17,426 ----------- 616 ---- 18,047
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 6,647 --------- 7,815 ---- 14,462
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 2,405 ----- 2,405
Total ----- 42,430 -- 22,869-- 13,597 --- 30,644 -------- 12,643 --- 122,183


Ch & In. -- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 579 ------ 35 ------- 5 ------- 1 ------------- 0 ------- 620
2006 ------ 14,514 ----- 147 ------ 70 ------ 14 ------------- 1 ---- 14,746
2007 ------ 16,326 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 ------------ 48 ---- 28,969
2008 ----------- 0 --- 9,464 -- 12,273 --- 4,368 --------- 1,381 ---- 27,486
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------ 10 -- 17,223 --------- 1,000 ---- 18,233
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -- 10,173 -------- 13,218 ---- 23,391
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 4,297 ----- 4,297
Total ----- 31,419 -- 19,897 -- 13,499 -- 32,982 -------- 19,945 --- 117,742


ROW-M-P --- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 ------- 2,318 ----- 186 ------ 21 ------ 12 ------------- 1 ----- 2,538
2006 ------ 24,695 ----- 754 ----- 254 ------ 70 ------------- 4 ---- 25,777
2007 ------ 26,680 -- 14,473 --- 1,661 --- 1,523 ------------ 44 ---- 44,381
2008 ----------- 0 -- 13,895 -- 14,059 --- 6,574 --------- 2,442 ---- 36,970
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 8 -- 21,199 ----------- 737 ---- 21,944
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 7,877 --------- 9,220 ---- 17,097
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 2,811 ----- 2,811
Total ----- 53,693 -- 29,308 -- 16,003 -- 37,255 -------- 15,259 --- 151,518

ALL ------- 85,112 -- 49,205 -- 29,502 -- 70,237 -------- 35,204 --- 269,260

The tables represent the FY (October to September) that PERM applications with Priority Date in a Calendar Year were Certified.

As an example, say you wanted to know the number of PERM for Indian applicants with a PD in 2007 Certified in FY2008. First go to the table for India, then the FY2008 column. Go down the column until you reach 2007. The resulting figure, 8,335, is the number of PERM with a PD of 2007 Certified in FY2008 for Indian applicants.

If you wanted to know the number of PERM with a PD of 2008 Certified to date, you would go down the first colum until yo reached 2008, then across to the last column "CY Total". For India, that would be 23,352.

To convert to numbers of I-485 applications, you would need to make your own assumption about denial rate at I-140 stage and the split between EB2 and EB3 applications. Additionally, you would need to allow a factor for number of I-485 applicants per I-140 approval (often 2.1 - 2.25 is used).

[veni001]

I agree.

The information relating to PERM beyond July 2007 and PWMB in general was well worthwhile discussing.

Now, I will wait until (if ever) USCIS decide to publish the next Inventory.

In the meantime, I leave you all with a compilation of all the figures for CY Priority date PERM Approvals by FY of Approval. First, the individual Countries/Groups, followed by a summary for China+India and Mexico-Philippines-ROW.

In future, having these in a single post may prove useful.

All Certified PERM by Calendar Year of Receipt (PD) by FY of Approval

CHINA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 H1 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 186 ------- 8 ------- 0 ------- 0 ---------- 0 ------- 194
2006 ------- 3,053 ------ 39 ------ 16 ------- 3 ---------- 0 ----- 3,111
2007 ------- 3,607 --- 1,916 ----- 179 ----- 198 ---------- 5 ----- 5,905
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,365 --- 1,915 ----- 666 -------- 188 ----- 4,134
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 2 --- 2,169 --------- 60 ----- 2,231
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 1,016 ------ 1,369 ----- 2,385
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -------- 493 ------- 493
Total ------ 6,846 --- 3,328 --- 2,112 --- 4,052 ------ 2,115 ---- 18,453


INDIA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 H1 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 393 ------ 27 ------- 5 ------- 1 ---------- 0 ------- 426
2006 ------ 11,461 ----- 108 ------ 54 ------ 11 ---------- 1 ---- 11,635
2007 ------ 12,719 --- 8,335 ----- 962 --- 1,005 --------- 43 ---- 23,064
2008 ----------- 0 --- 8,099 -- 10,358 --- 3,702 ------ 1,193 ---- 23,352
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 8 -- 15,054 -------- 940 ---- 16,002
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 9,157 ----- 11,849 ---- 21,006
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------ 3,804 ----- 3,804
Total ----- 24,573 -- 16,569 -- 11,387 -- 28,930 ----- 17,830 ---- 99,289


MEXICO ---- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 H1 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 403 ------ 32 ------- 3 ------- 3 ---------- 0 ------- 441
2006 ------- 2,975 ----- 142 ------ 39 ------ 16 ---------- 2 ----- 3,174
2007 ------- 3,064 --- 1,409 ----- 141 ----- 126 ---------- 8 ----- 4,748
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,861 ----- 591 ----- 878 -------- 528 ----- 3,858
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 1 --- 1,787 --------- 73 ----- 1,861
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----- 496 -------- 572 ----- 1,068
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -------- 187 ------- 187
Total ------ 6,442 --- 3,444 ----- 775 --- 3,306 ------ 1,370 ---- 15,337


PHIL. ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 H1 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 192 ------- 9 ------- 1 ------- 3 ---------- 0 ------- 205
2006 ------- 1,913 ------ 64 ------ 19 ------ 15 ---------- 0 ----- 2,011
2007 ------- 2,716 --- 1,519 ------ 99 ------ 84 ---------- 1 ----- 4,419
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,403 --- 1,510 ----- 483 -------- 145 ----- 3,541
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 2 --- 1,986 --------- 48 ----- 2,036
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----- 734 -------- 833 ----- 1,567
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -------- 219 ------- 219
Total ------ 4,821 --- 2,995 --- 1,631 --- 3,305 ------ 1,246 ---- 13,998


ROW ------- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 H1 -- CY Total
2005 ------- 1,723 ----- 145 ------ 17 ------- 6 ---------- 1 ----- 1,892
2006 ------ 19,807 ----- 548 ----- 196 ------ 39 ---------- 2 ---- 20,592
2007 ------ 20,900 -- 11,545 --- 1,421 --- 1,313 --------- 35 ---- 35,214
2008 ----------- 0 -- 10,631 -- 11,958 --- 5,213 ------ 1,769 ---- 29,571
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 5 -- 17,426 -------- 616 ---- 18,047
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 6,647 ------ 7,815 ---- 14,462
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------ 2,405 ----- 2,405
Total ----- 42,430 -- 22,869-- 13,597 --- 30,644 ----- 12,643 --- 122,183


Ch & In. -- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 H1 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 579 ------ 35 ------- 5 ------- 1 ---------- 0 ------- 620
2006 ------ 14,514 ----- 147 ------ 70 ------ 14 ---------- 1 ---- 14,746
2007 ------ 16,326 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 --------- 48 ---- 28,969
2008 ----------- 0 --- 9,464 -- 12,273 --- 4,368 ------ 1,381 ---- 27,486
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------ 10 -- 17,223 ------ 1,000 ---- 18,233
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -- 10,173 ----- 13,218 ---- 23,391
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------ 4,297 ----- 4,297
Total ----- 31,419 -- 19,897 -- 13,499 -- 32,982 ----- 19,945 --- 117,742


ROW-M-P --- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 H1 -- CY Total
2005 ------- 2,318 ----- 186 ------ 21 ------ 12 ---------- 1 ----- 2,538
2006 ------ 24,695 ----- 754 ----- 254 ------ 70 ---------- 4 ---- 25,777
2007 ------ 26,680 -- 14,473 --- 1,661 --- 1,523 --------- 44 ---- 44,381
2008 ----------- 0 -- 13,895 -- 14,059 --- 6,574 ------ 2,442 ---- 36,970
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 8 -- 21,199 -------- 737 ---- 21,944
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 7,877 ------ 9,220 ---- 17,097
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------ 2,811 ----- 2,811
Total ----- 53,693 -- 29,308-- 16,003 --- 37,255 ----- 15,259 --- 151,518

ALL ------- 85,112 -- 49,205 -- 29,502 -- 70,237 ----- 35,204 --- 269,260

Spec,
Nice work, I am assuming FY 2011 H1 --> First half of FY 2011.

Q,
I would recommend posting this right after the predictions on page 1(header) of this thread for quick reference and update when ever new information is released from DOL/USCIS/DOS

[Spectator]

Spec,
Nice work, I am assuming FY 2011 H1 --> First half of FY 2011.

Veni,

Correct.

I'll change it to Q1-Q2, since people probably aren't familiar with that terminology.

I was planning to update the FY2011 approvals in the post as the new data is released.

[admin]

Veni

I create a separate category for all supporting data and calculations in a folder called "FACTS AND DATA". Lets put any useful calculations there.

Thanks!

Spec,
Nice work, I am assuming FY 2011 H1 --> First half of FY 2011.

Q,
I would recommend posting this right after the predictions on page 1(header) of this thread for quick reference and update when ever new information is released from DOL/USCIS/DOS