EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

veni - i agree that porting likely drops. but do you (and the others) see my angle on the china eb demand drop, which would leave more spillover to eb2 I.

Yes, EBC demand dropped by 60% in 2008&2009 when compared to 2006&2007.

[veni001]

Ravi ... humour never fails to lighten up your mood. Thanks.

On your speculation / hunch about why PERM processing stopped ... I belong to your camp. I think things happen for a reason. And the immigration policy drives USCIS and DOS actions. So yes .... laws give them the framework but policy is at times equally or more important.

Q,
I am hoping USCIS got a reason in holding March Inventory update!

[anuran]

Everyone seems to be assuming that CIS is an intelligent being. I disagree.

PERM processing stopped - Reason: They are lazy.
No March Inventory update - Reason: There is nothing for them to show (perhaps it just looks like Jan inventory).

PS: ravi.shah, can you please tell me which chinese restaurant you go to?

[zenmaster]

Everyone seems to be assuming that CIS is an intelligent being. I disagree.

PERM processing stopped - Reason: They are lazy.
No March Inventory update - Reason: There is nothing for them to show (perhaps it just looks like Jan inventory).

PS: ravi.shah, can you please tell me which chinese restaurant you go to?

After July2007 happened, they have got to be careful and reasonable. They need to be able to justify to everyone.
Restaurant : China Chalet, Florham Park, NJ

[gcseeker]

With great power comes great responsibility...We the council of illuminati trusted you to keep the location of the chinese restaurant an secret between us and you.Now you have broken the sacred covenant.There will be consequences....We will have to send the terminator back in 2020 to retrogress the PD dates back to 1998.

I hope you are happy now Ravi.

Signed Illuminati
(Kindly excuse my stale comedy )

After July2007 happened, they have got to be careful and reasonable. They need to be able to justify to everyone.
Restaurant : China Chalet, Florham Park, NJ

[anuran]

Gosh, now I got to go china chalet. I never knew it got mixed up with Illuminati and stuff. But I am far far away from there. Can someone buy themselves a meal, eat the cookie and post me the fortune note? Just the note, I care less for the lucky numbers.

Anyway, after reading all of the discussion above I see that we are more confused than ever and CIS plays the same unpredictable role in this drama. I just hope the cutoff moves into mid 2007. There are 50 reasons for it to and another 50 for it not to. Gook luck to all of us.

[Spectator]

Spec

My mistake. I meant completions and wrote receipts.

Its the completions that are tracking to about 70K per annum. Of which significant would be EB2/3 IC and EB3ROW which are all retro categories.

So the EB1 EB2ROW will be very less (someone could do the math and figure out). This method will corroborate at least the magnitude of SOFAD.

p.s. original post corrected.

Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

[qesehmk]

Spec I tend to use a different time horizon. Since our concern is visa numbers consumption .... it would be wise to apply a 3 month offset to the I-140 applications to allow for 485 approval. In other words when looking at I-140 data I would take Jul-Jun horizon.

If you do that tehn there is a 16% descrease in I-140 completions but 25% increase in receipts. So it is apt to be worried about this situation.

I think your scenarios are quite agreeable. Scenario 3 is what could throw a very solid wrench in EB2 wheel of approvals. That's exactly what we saw in 2010 when they pushed through PERM cases to generate ROW EB2 demand. It could easily happen in next 4 months.

If that I-140 surge doesn't materialize then chances are there won't be substantial effect on 485 pipeline and our SOFAD projections won't go to dogs!!

Sometime I feel sorry for this uncertainty .... and people will think we are putting our hands on both rocks while predicting. But that's the fact of life. Who can predict how USCIS will behave and whether they will take up on I-140 backlog. We can only pray they don't for now (in our own narrow self-interest of course!)

Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

[veni001]

Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

Spec,
As usual very good analysis, i believe completions include Rejections/Denials, am i correct?

Also if we compare pending(including customer action)i-140 cases with Oct 2009 its doubled (33 k Vs 16.7 k) and about 20% increase compared to Oct 2010(33k Vs 27.8k).

i140 receipts are about the same when compared to FY 2010, 77k Vs 33K from the first 5 months in FY 2011, but we know EB1 is down and EB2 is up within the 33k receipts from FY 2011.

[Spectator]

A follow up to something I mentioned in my previous post.

The PWD data suggests that the overall EB2:EB3 ratio OVERALL is pushing 70:30, based on the minimum requirements stated for the job (I posted about this earlier in the thread).

We have discussed previously that since India probably has a higher ratio, maybe ROW-M-P has a lower ratio.

For calculation purposes, we have used 50:50 for ROW-M-P.

If ROW-M-P is 50:50 and China is slightly higher at 60:40 then the India ratio must be 86:14.

There are limits to how far this can be pushed.

For instance, if ROW-M-P is lowed to 40:60, then India becomes 95:5.

China's ratio may be higher. Chinese students seem to continue to Masters and PhD. This doesn't necessarily translate to EB2, but looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

Having said the above, I think the overall split is probably slightly lower than 70:30. I have no doubt that some of the EB2 PWD returns are too high for the employer to progess further and continue through PERM and beyond.

I thought it was interesting. I was surprised at the extent of the effect, even though I knew it wouldn't be insignificant.

[Spectator]

Spec I tend to use a different time horizon. Since our concern is visa numbers consumption .... it would be wise to apply a 3 month offset to the I-140 applications to allow for 485 approval. In other words when looking at I-140 data I would take Jul-Jun horizon.

If you do that tehn there is a 16% descrease in I-140 completions but 25% increase in receipts. So it is apt to be worried about this situation.

I think your scenarios are quite agreeable. Scenario 3 is what could throw a very solid wrench in EB2 wheel of approvals. That's exactly what we saw in 2010 when they pushed through PERM cases to generate ROW EB2 demand. It could easily happen in next 4 months.

If that I-140 surge doesn't materialize then chances are there won't be substantial effect on 485 pipeline and our SOFAD projections won't go to dogs!!

Sometime I feel sorry for this uncertainty .... and people will think we are putting our hands on both rocks while predicting. But that's the fact of life. Who can predict how USCIS will behave and whether they will take up on I-140 backlog. We can only pray they don't for now (in our own narrow self-interest of course!)

Q,

Personally, I don't think it will affect this year either. The examples were merely illustrative of various scenarios.

I was just noting that in this case, when you rob Peter to pay Paul, it is only a loan. Peter needs to be paid back eventually! (sorry about the awful metaphor!)

How and when is, I agree, anybody's guess.

[qesehmk]

Spec
I would imagine PWD data is common to CP and 485. But if it is not then that might explain the discrepancy.
For CP cases, China and Philipines tend to have very high EB3 compared to EB2

Looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

[Spectator]

Spec
I would imagine PWD data is common to CP and 485. But if it is not then that might explain the discrepancy.
For CP cases, China and Philipines tend to have very high EB3 compared to EB2

Q,

Agreed the PWD must be common to all processes. They only diverge upon I-140 approval.

Your point is well taken for Philippines (and Mexico). They don't have many EB2 cases anyway.

China, I'm not so sure. EB3-C definitely has high CP (30-40%). Even allowing for that, the number of EB3-C cases over a longer period is less than EB2-C over a shorter period.

I will factor in that M & P have few EB2 cases and report back. I still think the figures will be quite high and put a limit on the ratio that can be applied to ROW, since they represent a significant % of the total.

Again, thanks for pointing that out.

Edit: Thinking about it, the 50:50 used in the calculation s is for ROW-M-P, so the figures are valid. All it means is that the ROW EB2 component within the 50% is higher if M-P are lower. That is probably correct.

[veni001]

A follow up to something I mentioned in my previous post.

The PWD data suggests that the overall EB2:EB3 ratio OVERALL is pushing 70:30, based on the minimum requirements stated for the job (I posted about this earlier in the thread).

We have discussed previously that since India probably has a higher ratio, maybe ROW-M-P has a lower ratio.

For calculation purposes, we have used 50:50 for ROW-M-P.

If ROW-M-P is 50:50 and China is slightly higher at 60:40 then the India ratio must be 86:14.

There are limits to how far this can be pushed.

For instance, if ROW-M-P is lowed to 40:60, then India becomes 95:5.

China's ratio may be higher. Chinese students seem to continue to Masters and PhD. This doesn't necessarily translate to EB2, but looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

Having said the above, I think the overall split is probably slightly lower than 70:30. I have no doubt that some of the EB2 PWD returns are too high for the employer to progess further and continue through PERM and beyond.

I thought it was interesting. I was surprised at the extent of the effect, even though I knew it wouldn't be insignificant.

Spec,
With the increased insight on PD movement this trend went up at a rapid rate from FY2010 to FY 2011. I was looking at 2010 PERM data and comparing with Q1 2011 PERM data, taking $34/hr(70k/yr) offered wage as ref for a EB2 qualified JOB.

FY 2010:
EBI certified- 28,930
PWD>$34/hr = 14,982 (51%)

Q1 FY 2011:
EBI certified- 9,299
PWD>$34/hr = 7,313 (79%)

We may not see any EB3I filings coming next year

[whistleblower]

Not to distract you from your ongoing discussion but I think why PERM processing.stopped. Atlast my email. Didn't fell on deaf ear.

[Gclongwait]

Not to distract you from your ongoing discussion but I think why PERM processing.stopped. Atlast my email. Didn't fell on deaf ear.

You need to elaborate if you want us to derive any conclusions from your post

[kd2008]

Spec,
With the increased insight on PD movement this trend went up at a rapid rate from FY2010 to FY 2011. I was looking at 2010 PERM data and comparing with Q1 2011 PERM data, taking $34/hr(70k/yr) offered wage as ref for a EB2 qualified JOB.

FY 2010:
EBI certified- 28,930
PWD>$34/hr = 14,982 (51%)

Q1 FY 2011:
EBI certified- 9,299
PWD>$34/hr = 7,313 (79%)

We may not see any EB3I filings coming next year

Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.

[qesehmk]

veni I agree here. I personally know many people with 6 figure salaries classified as EB3.

Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.

[srinivasj]

You need to elaborate if you want us to derive any conclusions from your post

whistleblower wrote on this forum before about blowing the whistle on perm approvals without any audits by writing to Senator Grassley

[MorningSun]

GoodMorning everyone, since the last time I have posted, India won the WorldCup and UConn won the National Title. How are things looking for EB2I with priority date of 1/29/07. Please enlighten.

Best to all.

[anuran]

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year.

[whistleblower]

whistleblower wrote on this forum before about blowing the whistle on perm approvals without any audits by writing to Senator Grassley

You are misquoting me. Goal was to make sure PERMs are scrutnized well enough before they are approved (60-90 days to approval and not 3-5 days). Email was intended to check with DOL if they are scrutnizing PERMS rigorously enough that most of them are qualified in EB2. With everyone filing in EB2, this category has lost it's meaning. So long term goal was to tweak DOL. Everyone needs little tweaking here and rthere. All shady PERMS should be audited.

[srinivasj]

You are misquoting me. Goal was to make sure PERMs are scrutnized well enough before they are approved (60-90 days to approval and not 3-5 days). Email was intended to check with DOL if they are scrutnizing PERMS rigorously enough that most of them are qualified in EB2. With everyone filing in EB2, this category has lost it's meaning. So long term goal was to tweak DOL. Everyone needs little tweaking here and rthere. All shady PERMS should be audited.

sorry if i misquoted...I was trying to point the same..

[gcwait2007]

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year.

This can be written in Haiku, as follows:

Sitting on the wall
Either side or stagnant
Your mind


gcw07

[anuran]

That sure is more elegant than what I said.