EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

ifaith

That's poor choice of words by Ron. He means he is cautiously optimistic that the dates will move much more in Q4.

Hi Raj
Did you see Ron's comment on the same link
"""
Re: EB2 visa availability
The USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with creating cutoff dates or publishing the Visa Bulletin. That is the sole province of the State Department. I suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."""

What does he means by " suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."
Can anyone comment on this.

Thanks

[leo07]

I asked Ron about it. Let's see what he comes back with. Basically, I thought only Ron can know what he really 'meant'?

Hi Raj
Did you see Ron's comment on the same link
"""
Re: EB2 visa availability
The USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with creating cutoff dates or publishing the Visa Bulletin. That is the sole province of the State Department. I suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."""

What does he means by " suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."
Can anyone comment on this.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

I only responded to iFaiths question and explained what I thought it meant

... only Ron can know what he really 'meant'?

[leo07]

I had the same question as iFaith when I read Ron's comment. I thought it could have been a poor choice of words( like you did ) or some inconclusive chain of thought.

I only responded to iFaiths question and explained what I thought it meant

Here is Ron's response for the same. This must bring cloture to question: "No, I think that we will see more movement than we have seen in the last couple of fiscal years. The numbers of visas available for this year's fourth quarter should be higher than what we have seen in the recent past. I really don't expect to see any miracles from the CIS (that is, I don't expect to see them step up and start approving cases at a faster rate), so the supply will be higher and the known demand will stay about the same. This should cause faster cutoff date movement in order to attract more cases for consular processing."

[qesehmk]

Glad to know that my interpretation was good.

I think he is right on Q4 spillover. He may be right on date movement. But he is dead wrong on USCIS' ability to utilize visas.

With so many preadj cases, USCIS will be able to utilize all visas without any doubt.

I had the same question as iFaith when I read Ron's comment. I thought it could have been a poor choice of words( like you did ) or some inconclusive chain of thought.



Here is Ron's response for the same. This must bring cloture to question: "No, I think that we will see more movement than we have seen in the last couple of fiscal years. The numbers of visas available for this year's fourth quarter should be higher than what we have seen in the recent past. I really don't expect to see any miracles from the CIS (that is, I don't expect to see them step up and start approving cases at a faster rate), so the supply will be higher and the known demand will stay about the same. This should cause faster cutoff date movement in order to attract more cases for consular processing."

[bieber]

Q

If DOS moves dates cautiously and spillover levels will be as per your calculations here, then visa wastage is bound to happen, do u agree?

If they don't allow new I485s now (in intervals), they will most likely have to open gates at somepoint, which will be very good for me, looking at the direction they are going it may become reality soon

[qesehmk]

In that case teh visas will fall down to EB3. But they won't be wasted.

The situation when spillover > EB2 485 cases waiting for visa AND USCIS doesn't move dates far beyond Jul 2007 is difficult to fathom. Since a 485 case usually takes at least 3 months to process ... if indeed spillover is going to be that big AND USCIS hasn't moved dates means:

1. The spillover is not that high inthe first place.
2. USCIS is ok with FD from EB2 to EB3 but is not ok with moving dates aggressively ahead.

We will know better next month. My hunch is 1 is true rather than #2

Q

If DOS moves dates cautiously and spillover levels will be as per your calculations here, then visa wastage is bound to happen, do u agree?

If they don't allow new I485s now (in intervals), they will most likely have to open gates at somepoint, which will be very good for me, looking at the direction they are going it may become reality soon

[leo07]

Yes. I think whether CIS would waste visas this year or not is debatable. Like bieber pointed out, if they wait until September to move dates for EB2, then they could end up wasting some visas. Plus, the disorderly allocation of visas is inevitable in that case.

On contrary, TSC has been sitting on 140's for a while now, when they begin to come out, it could throw some numbers off.( my 140 is stuck there for 181 days)

Glad to know that my interpretation was good.

I think he is right on Q4 spillover. He may be right on date movement. But he is dead wrong on USCIS' ability to utilize visas.

With so many preadj cases, USCIS will be able to utilize all visas without any doubt.

[qesehmk]

Dude .... do you really think they will waste visas when they have at least 100K preadj cases in EB alone? Do really think that rather than going the visas waste they won't fall-down to EB3?

Yes. I think whether CIS would waste visas this year or not is debatable. Like bieber pointed out, if they wait until September to move dates for EB2, then they could end up wasting some visas. Plus, the disorderly allocation of visas is inevitable in that case.

On contrary, TSC has been sitting on 140's for a while now, when they begin to come out, it could throw some numbers off.( my 140 is stuck there for 181 days)

[bieber]

Q,
yes, they can use those visas for EB3. do you see keeping EB2 not current and allocating EB2 visas to EB3 as a possibility? Still under the assumption of spillover > pending(pre-adjudicated) 485s

[leo07]

Honestly, Yes, I can see that happening if they wait until September. because they will have only 18-20 working days to play with. Unless they have a plan in place already, which I doubt, to allocate visas to EB3 as well.

I think that by September 30th, even if there are handful of EB3s approved ahead of Eb2s they are really in trouble. There must be well choreographed act to not get into any sort of trouble

Dude .... do you really think they will waste visas when they have at least 100K preadj cases in EB alone? Do really think that rather than going the visas waste they won't fall-down to EB3?

[anuran]

I think that by September 30th, even if there are handful of EB3s approved ahead of Eb2s they are really in trouble. There must be well choreographed act to not get into any sort of trouble

CIS can pull of anything and not get into trouble. One such is the report that CIS, in the past, has approved 485s without PD being current.

[leo07]

yes, I have seen those cases. In all practical sense, CIS has no incentive to allocate visas to EB3 over EB2. All, I'm saying is they will not go out of their way to help anybody, but try to work within the framework as much as possible.

CIS can pull of anything and not get into trouble. One such is the report that CIS, in the past, has approved 485s without PD being current.

[qesehmk]

Bieber

If you look at EB1, USCIS has preferred to keep the category current before allowing any FDs to EB2. So that is why I think that EB2 should be current before any FD is allowed to EB3.

If SpOv > EB2-485; then dates must move aggressively at latest in Jun to avoid visa wastage or spillover to EB3. I think it is already late to move dates if SpOv > EB2-485 were the case.

And so I think that is NOT the case. Hope I am wrong on this one!

Q,
yes, they can use those visas for EB3. do you see keeping EB2 not current and allocating EB2 visas to EB3 as a possibility? Still under the assumption of spillover > pending(pre-adjudicated) 485s

[leo07]

Q, I agree with your equation. I think that by June 1st approvable 485 cases for (EB1+EB2) will be much less than available Visas( visas in hand ). That is Where DOS has to gamble, IMO

[pch053]

I just hope that USCIS doesn't waste visas during spillover; since the overall visa numbers have been properly utilized in the last few years, I am somewhat hopeful that visas won't be wasted this year too. On a related note, does USCIS issue RFEs on already pre-adjudicated cases, especially if the pre-adjudication date is a bit old. For example, if someone's case was pre-adjudicated 2 years back is there a strong possibility that USCIS will issue RFE on employment verification, W2, paystubs, etc. I am asking this because if USCIS moves the dates only during Aug-Sep and there are lots of RFEs (like the ones described above), USCIS might not have ample time to adjudicate those cases by end of Sep (which essentially means that those visas will be wasted for FY11).

[haripathhi]

I totally agree with pch.There is a strong possibility of the RFE's being issued on pre-adjudicated cases by the USCIS in this current economy.

I just hope that USCIS doesn't waste visas during spillover; since the overall visa numbers have been properly utilized in the last few years, I am somewhat hopeful that visas won't be wasted this year too. On a related note, does USCIS issue RFEs on already pre-adjudicated cases, especially if the pre-adjudication date is a bit old. For example, if someone's case was pre-adjudicated 2 years back is there a strong possibility that USCIS will issue RFE on employment verification, W2, paystubs, etc. I am asking this because if USCIS moves the dates only during Aug-Sep and there are lots of RFEs (like the ones described above), USCIS might not have ample time to adjudicate those cases by end of Sep (which essentially means that those visas will be wasted for FY11).

[TeddyKoochu]

Honestly, Yes, I can see that happening if they wait until September. because they will have only 18-20 working days to play with. Unless they have a plan in place already, which I doubt, to allocate visas to EB3 as well.

I think that by September 30th, even if there are handful of EB3s approved ahead of Eb2s they are really in trouble. There must be well choreographed act to not get into any sort of trouble

Guys I remember there was a discussion long back on this when we tried to explain the high number of approvals in Oct. That time it was reasoned out that the cap number was allocated in September. So for this scenario I feel that 2 months should be good time to at least attach the cap number so probably Aug is ok Sep maybe late. Leo please pray for me this way you are also assured your 485

[nayekal]

Sorry guys. It was not my intention to divert your attention from the current topic, but I couldn't resist in posting this info, which I find it very interesting and for you guys analyze.
http://www.immigration-information.c...e-issues-66/de

Basically talking about the demand data, I always thought the numbers listed are for only for those apps with I485 being applied and probably pre-adjudicated or not. But, we never accounted for those cases where some one pays an invoice fee for IV Application process (currently $794.00), then these cases will appear in demand data.
People who have their PD's with I140's approved within 12-18 months of the current date, will receive these invoices (but not every one) and among them few people might pay off these fees and send their application files. These apps for both primary and dependants might be added to demand data, but still not eligible for visa numbers as they are not current.

[nayekal]

Sorry guys. It was not my intention to divert your attention from the current topic, but I couldn't resist in posting this info, which I find it very interesting and for you guys analyze.
http://www.immigration-information.c...e-issues-66/de

Basically talking about the demand data, I always thought the numbers listed are for only for those apps with I485 being applied and probably pre-adjudicated or not. But, we never accounted for those cases where some one pays an invoice fee for IV Application process (currently $794.00), then these cases will appear in demand data.
People who have their PD's with I140's approved within 12-18 months of the current date, will receive these invoices (but not every one) and among them few people might pay off these fees and send their application files. These apps for both primary and dependants might be added to demand data, but still not eligible for visa numbers as they are not current.

Sorry. My earlier link, didn't work
http://www.immigration-information.c...ication-13933/

[qesehmk]

nayekal the inventory says that it includes consular processing applications as well. So yes there are some apps for which the date was never current .... yet people could apply under CP.

Not sure if you are referring to something else? Pls explain ...

Sorry guys. It was not my intention to divert your attention from the current topic, but I couldn't resist in posting this info, which I find it very interesting and for you guys analyze.
http://www.immigration-information.c...e-issues-66/de

Basically talking about the demand data, I always thought the numbers listed are for only for those apps with I485 being applied and probably pre-adjudicated or not. But, we never accounted for those cases where some one pays an invoice fee for IV Application process (currently $794.00), then these cases will appear in demand data.
People who have their PD's with I140's approved within 12-18 months of the current date, will receive these invoices (but not every one) and among them few people might pay off these fees and send their application files. These apps for both primary and dependants might be added to demand data, but still not eligible for visa numbers as they are not current.

[nayekal]

Q, what I am thinking is may be we have these kind of apps included in demand data for EB2 I & C before 2007 as well.
For example, we have 17200 pending for visa numbers prior to Jan 2007, say out of which we might have 400 of these cases
which will never have a visa number allocated until their PD's fall within current dates.
With this assumption, I believe, the spillover number that could applied can be greater than the number suggested in demand data, which we are seeing.

Also, I read in some forums (will try to provide reference later), few people will start receiving this kind of invoices when NVC predicts their PD's will become current in next 6 months or so. Last week, one of my colleague received it with a pd of Oct 2007.

[qesehmk]

Yes. That's true. But at the same time remember there are some 485 applications that are invisible since they are at district offices. And some that are PWMB. And some that are not yet documentarily qualified (which is a prerequisite before you could be adjudicated). So the 485 inventory is a good (and the best available) approximation to overall 485 demand for adjudication.

However ever since USCIS has started publishing 485 inventory .... life has become much easier. Earlier people used to do pure guesswork (with a bit of intelligence and peripheral data)!

Q, what I am thinking is may be we have these kind of apps included in demand data for EB2 I & C before 2007 as well.
For example, we have 17200 pending for visa numbers prior to Jan 2007, say out of which we might have 400 of these cases
which will never have a visa number allocated until their PD's fall within current dates.
With this assumption, I believe, the spillover number that could applied can be greater than the number suggested in demand data, which we are seeing.

Also, I read in some forums (will try to provide reference later), few people will start receiving this kind of invoices when NVC predicts their PD's will become current in next 6 months or so. Last week, one of my colleague received it with a pd of Oct 2007.

[veni001]

Yes. That's true. But at the same time remember there are some 485 applications that are invisible since they are at district offices. And some that are PWMB. And some that are not yet documentarily qualified (which is a prerequisite before you could be adjudicated). So the 485 inventory is a good (and the best available) approximation to overall 485 demand for adjudication.

However ever since USCIS has started publishing 485 inventory .... life has become much easier. Earlier people used to do pure guesswork (with a bit of intelligence and peripheral data)!

Q,
January inventory actually accounted for the field office inventories as well? you mean field offices are different from district offices?

[qesehmk]

Veni,

I meant the same. But I thought that the work has just started. Spec in fact has pointed out earlier that even after the edict came out about transferring 485 cases into TSC, not all cases will be transferred.

Q,
January inventory actually accounted for the field office inventories as well? you mean field offices are different from district offices?