DoS demand data published : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Calculated break-up month wise as given below:
Month India China Cumu Total
May-06 1312 0 1312
Jun-06 1696 0 3008
Jul-06 1505 265 4778
Aug-06 1677 693 7148
Sep-06 1745 773 9666
Oct-06 1747 732 12145
Nov-06 1737 667 14549
Dec-06 1881 770 17200
If 12K visas are allocated in May'11 VB, then cut off date will be 10/22/2006.
Last edited by gcwait2007; 04-08-2011 at 02:39 PM.
Did you mean to Sept 22nd or Oct 22nd?
Until Sept, we have only 9666, so I believe we should cross Sept and move into Oct.
Thanks for point out the typo. Corrected now.Originally Posted by nayekal
GCwait2007,
As per your data for Oct..the grand total is 12145.
Oct-06 1747 732 12145
We have a monthly quota of 240 per month for each India and China, which adds up to 12625. Does it mean, we have chances to see the bulletin hitting Nov 2006 as well.
It is out. 01 JUL 2006.
Last edited by gcseek; 04-09-2011 at 08:13 PM.
ITS all about the porting folks.
"D. VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS
Family-sponsored: The extremely high level of demand during the first few months of FY-2011 resulted in the retrogression of most worldwide cut-off dates in January or February. While most of these cut-offs have begun to advance slowly, heavy demand in the Family First preference has caused a further retrogression for May. At this time it is not possible to predict the rate of forward movement, but some movement is anticipated in most categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:
Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)
China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
Last edited by arorasa; 04-08-2011 at 04:19 PM. Reason: incomplete post
"No August or September estimate is possible at this time. " Thats when the normal spillover kicks in correct?
2 months movement might not be that bad after all. It says that it will move one or more weeks for EB2-I in the next couple of bulletins; so it might push that PD to Aug'06 during July bulletin. The final push might come during the Aug - Sep bulletins which (i hope) will push the PDs to somewhere in 2007.
Yes, that's true. In the past couple of years the normal spillover has been mainly from EB2-ROW and EB5 and this year the additional numbers are from EB1.
Good News Overall that finally EB2-I moved but definitely short of expectations by atleast 3 months. I believe the full 12K was not allocated we should see forward movement in June hopefully as well. I believe that porting number is the uncertainity or is being grossly over-estimated.
Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)
Teddy
have you noticed this?
in the last section, 'Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences'
looks like EB2 ROW will definitely give some spill across,
just like significant means 2 months, may be high demand for porting means 5000
This does not appear to be good news. DOS has stated that porting is "very high" and it appears like we will not see a whole lot of movement in Q4
How do they apply?
EB2I & EB2C are not showing same PD in May 2011 VB and I am wondering how do they apply Spillover VISAs now? in-addition monthly quota
it's hilarious, porting numbers are not showing up in the demand data but impacting the date movement
Isn't the spill over supposed to go to EB2-I as long as the EB2-I dates are lagging behind EB2-C dates, meaning for the next bulletin the spillover will primarily be going to EB2-I?
Possibility of another 12K for EB1 is high by end of FY2011?Teddy
have you noticed this?
in the last section, 'Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences'
looks like EB2 ROW will definitely give some spill across,
just like significant means 2 months, may be high demand for porting means 5000
From May 2011 VB "At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years."
If you compare with april bulletin, eb2c moved by one week. (22 jul 06 to 01 aug 2006). that looks like normal quota.they have rationed out the excess unused numbers and those were only enough to get eb2i till 1 jul 06 from 08 may 06. my 2 cents.EB2I & EB2C are not showing same PD in May 2011 VB and I am wondering how do they apply Spillover VISAs now? in-addition monthly quota
From May 2011 VB
"As mentioned earlier, the number of applicants who may be “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is unknown. As a result, the cut-off date which governs use of Section 202(a)(5) numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal, in an attempt to ascertain the amount of “upgrade” demand in the pipeline while at the same time administering use of the available numbers. This action risks a surge in demand that could adversely impact the cut-off date later in the fiscal year. However, it also limits the possibility that potential demand would not materialize and the annual limit would not be reached due to lack of cut-off date movement"
above two statements contradict each other!
Unless there is lot of porting from ROW i don't think there will be any surge of new applications with only 2-3 month forward movement to EB2IC.
Remember EB2I&C were at 01AUG2006 in September 2008.
KLPD ? or may be not yet ? undecided :P
Veni001
do you mean total EB1 Spilldown will be 24k?
It looks like they just want to test the waters with possible 485 filings from May-July2006 period
Quote from visa bulletin
under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.
Does this mean, EB2 I annual limit of 2800 is completely used, which means these visa numbers are allocated for people who ported from EB3 I to EB2 I. So, for half year, this is the kind of porting numbers we are seeing, then it means for a full year it might be close to 6000 or more.
Unless there is 6K porting(Eb3-Eb2) pending(or DOS&USCIS expecting 6k porting in the next 30 days) i don't think they can use all 12k( let's hope this # is correct) spillover.
I believe that we will get atleast 15K from EB2 ROW, on trackitt the usage is 60% when compared to last year.Teddy
have you noticed this?
in the last section, 'Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences'
looks like EB2 ROW will definitely give some spill across,
just like significant means 2 months, may be high demand for porting means 5000
Looks like it!
May be USCIS is using different monthly allocation for EB2I
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