Update from Shusterman law firm:
EB-2 Movement in May
Will EB-2 India will advance "substantially" in May?
There are 18,000 persons with EB-2 priority dates in 2006 who are waiting for green cards, 13,000 of them from India.
Given the 7% country quota, we expect the India EB-2 to move forward in May between 2 weeks and 2 months.
The dates will move eventually - July or before. Whether the movement will be in May or Jun is anybody's guess. We can only hope they do move in May.
If the assumption is 12K numbers will fall down in May - then the dates should move by 6-9 months. If the dates don't move, clearly the fall down hasn't materialized.
Last year we didn't see any FD FA until Q4. Sorry to be stating this cold fact. But just wanted to stay away from hype and emotion.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Firstly, let me be clear that I'm talking about the PDs of:May-June-July of 2007. ( My typo before when I said 2006)
If the dates move until April 2007 in the coming VB, the chances for further movement this year will slim down significantly.
On the other hand, if they move the dates to Sept-Oct 2006 in May 2011 VB, the chances for reaching May-June-July of 2007 increase significantly.
Well, if DOS moves the dates to Aug-2007 in May VB, of course that's the best case scenario
Originally Posted by ifaith
Leo ... very wise observation. Agree.
Firstly, let me be clear that I'm talking about the PDs of:May-June-July of 2007. ( My typo before when I said 2006)
If the dates move until April 2007 in the coming VB, the chances for further movement this year will slim down significantly.
On the other hand, if they move the dates to Sept-Oct 2006 in May 2011 VB, the chances for reaching May-June-July of 2007 increase significantly.
Well, if DOS moves the dates to Aug-2007 in May VB, of course that's the best case scenario
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I am no lawyer but I think the country Quota of 7% shoudn't apply over spillover. Anyone .. please comment.....
Qesemk .. any comments on shusterman's news update
7% won't be applicable to those 12000. They will STRICTLY be given to all EB2 guys in order of their PD.
India dates will move significantly simply based on EB1 FD. Then there will be EB5 and EB2 ROW unused numbers. So all in all things look pretty good. It doesn't matter much if the move happens in May or July. It will happen. Hang in there.
p.s. - If that lawyer actually said that then now you know who not to go to for legal help !! Oink Oink!!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
really surprising to know that Shusterman didnot consider 7% before making a statement about months/years. may be he/she just wants to attaract some traffic
kd2008
Really, IV fighting the war without number experts all these years? I lost whatever impression I had on them once they made Q's thread private.
If it takes 10-20 millon dollars for lobbying, why can't they just put it on website and interested parties will arrange that money. Don't ask but donate the money policy doesn't have much success.
Beiber, what you say is true. I thought my post was inappropriate for this thread so I deleted it. My apologies.
Guys, you can post what you think is valuable. I support all organizations that support immigration including IV.
If some of us had some bad experiences with a few individuals, that shouldn't prevent us from contributing to a good cause in future.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Guys I have my priority date at Feb 29, 2008. When do you think it could be current based on revised predictions.
New to this blog! Q, it's good.
I was recently going through some old documents to find my school leaving certificate, saw lots of old stuff, documents, marksheets, true copies, receipts, applications, zeroxes,...etc
Hopefully it will end one day, no more of all these needed!
I agree with most of the analysis so far here. I think if 12k comes in May, then will move till september-october 2006, and should reach till mid 2007 by end of this fiscal season. After that what they do, I can't think! Mine is November 2007, I don't think it's going to hit it this year. But anyways, am readying 485 documents needed just in case.
Following are the numbers before Oct -2006. These total to ~ 12K.
EB2-C - 3521
EB2-I - 9345
Based on this we can expect the PD for EB2-I to be 01-OCT-2006 if the 12K numbers are infused in the system. If not I think these will certailnly come to us in Jul.
kd2008
I didnot mean to direct that post at you, I'm deleting my post too
My hunch is that Feb'08 PD will be current sometime between June - Sep'12; we will get a clearer picture in the next few months.
Fingers crossed for that Feb'08 PD. As far as I can see, there is potential for a PD movement like that. Cheers.
I agree with the above. I myself have a jan 08 PD and while I dont think I have any hopes of a GC in the next few months, I think there is a fair chance of being able to file I-485 in the next 3/4 mnths. Its impossible to predict what they will do once the dates hit Aug 07 or once they realize they have more than enough visas to clear the backlog.
Another link on the 12K FD to EB2; doesn't provide any new information but describes again on how spillover is handled amongst retrogressed countries:
http://www.usimmlaw.com/EB2Story.htm
"The State Department is about to start allocating more than 12,000 extra visa numbers to EB2 applicants. Most will go to applicants from India. The EB2 India date in the May Visa Bulletin will advance for the first time since September, 2010. EB2 India and China may continue to advance for the rest of the fiscal year - unlikely to pass December, 2006."
interesting statement where he/she mentions India and China may continue to advance for the rest of the fiscal year - unlikely to pass December, 2006.
Pch
Actually I feel it might not take till June 2012 ,if the USCIS advances all the way to Aug 2007 in the May/June VB the dates will not probably move much till the end of the year.If they move it only till April 2007 ...chances are highly improved they will push it all the way to Dec 2007 or Jan 2008 ...so you might get to file much sooner.Again this is all gut feeling , cannot back it up by numbers.
Mine is in Nov 2007 and I am expecting USCIS will probably move the Post Aug 2007/Sep 2007 group of apps along with the 2008 ones in a chunk movement and not in increments.
Hi Q,
I note that you have updated the opening thread in the first page, with my quote of numbers. Thanks for the same.
Can you please revise them as follows:
Low / Pessimistic: 28K
High/ Optimistic: 34K
Net SOFAD estimated: 30K
PD cut off date: March 2007.
Thanks,
GCW'07
Last edited by gcwait2007; 04-07-2011 at 02:37 PM.
I thought my pd would be current ( Oct 2007 ) but looks like there are lot of *'s(if's and when's) attached to it... Damn it...
Last edited by soggadu; 04-07-2011 at 03:36 PM.
Nishant welcome. Thanks for kind words. Lots of people are doing a lot of good work and generally they respect each other here. So the credit goes to many many people you will come across here.
I agree w what PCH said. Likely Jun-Sep 2012.
Thanks GCW. Apprecaite it. I have updated teh header.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
May 2011 DOS Demand Data.. Let number crunching begin
The demand data hasn't changed, so the predictions are the same. Visa bulletin generally comes a day after the demand data. However if a government shutdown happens, the visa bulletin might get delayed unless they release that today.
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