EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Friends ... as promised, head of the thread updated!

Teddy, Spec and others; I included your information to the best of my knowledge. Pls let me know if you want to change it.

[veni001]

Friends ... as promised, head of the thread updated!

Teddy, Spec and others; I included your information to the best of my knowledge. Pls let me know if you want to change it.

Q,
Good Job.

[anuran]

To a large extent your line of thinking is true. But there are estimates out there that indicate EB2I may have racked up to 98000 I-485/I-140 cumulative. That make it absolutely impossible for the PD to become current with the estimated spillover ranging between 20000 to 36000. Those numbers have to be used to make India/China PD equalize and then move forward. You see how this number game goes? All the best.

[qesehmk]

Experts - have a question. Is it fair to say that EB2 I/C PERMS/I-140s will likely have dropped significantly in 2008 and 2009 (economy + greater scrutiny). So making EB2 I/C dates current or advancing them significantly is unlikely to create a huge influx of 485s as we saw in 2007. Not making a statement but really just a question. Any color on this would be highly appreciated.

The statement could be true but for a different reason. The reason is that DOS and USCIS have improved their visibility and coordination to pending applications. Economic conditions certainly matter. But IMHO that wouldn't deter USCIS from opening the flood gates for a couple of months.

To a large extent your line of thinking is true. But there are estimates out there that indicate EB2I may have racked up to 98000 I-485/I-140 cumulative. That make it absolutely impossible for the PD to become current with the estimated spillover ranging between 20000 to 36000. Those numbers have to be used to make India/China PD equalize and then move forward. You see how this number game goes? All the best.

Of course ... there is a huge number EB2IC waiting to file 485 post Jul-2007. The question is whether DoS will open flood gates or take in new applications in a controlled manner.

[anuran]

"Of course ... there is a huge number EB2IC waiting to file 485 post Jul-2007. The question is whether DoS will open flood gates or take in new applications in a controlled manner."

That is the big question. This year is sort of special in that all indications are that the backlogs till July 2007 will get eliminated. How will/should DoS react to that condition? DoS has all along acted as if there is nothing beyond this date. But, they do know that there is a lot of 485s out there. Sanity would dictate to them to take it easy. However, those who just go by the book would open the sluice fully. This where I am ending up scratching my head too. Will DoS dare to setup an arbitrary number or dare to open the gates? Well when I say arbitrary number, I am of course assuming that DoS has no hidden data beyond the published visa numbers used to estimate the PD in VB.

[qesehmk]

True. Most of us will be scratching our heads! No one can say what will happen. Ability to file 485 allows applicants to earn EAD and AC21 option. However, it makes absolutely no difference to the cycle time to get GC.

"Of course ... there is a huge number EB2IC waiting to file 485 post Jul-2007. The question is whether DoS will open flood gates or take in new applications in a controlled manner."

That is the big question. This year is sort of special in that all indications are that the backlogs till July 2007 will get eliminated. How will/should DoS react to that condition? DoS has all along acted as if there is nothing beyond this date. But, they do know that there is a lot of 485s out there. Sanity would dictate to them to take it easy. However, those who just go by the book would open the sluice fully. This where I am ending up scratching my head too. Will DoS dare to setup an arbitrary number or dare to open the gates? Well when I say arbitrary number, I am of course assuming that DoS has no hidden data beyond the published visa numbers used to estimate the PD in VB.

[krishnav]

Hello,

Can someone please shed some light on this question.

Thanks.


Sept 2007 Priority Date?



Hello All,

This is my first post here. First of all congratulations on the great work you guys have been doing and thanks for all the support with answering the queries.

I had a question about priority dates. My priority date is sept 2007..I am sure its really difficult to get current this year. Assuming it doesn't and lets say the dates only go to July 2007, why does USCIS always wait till April/May to move the current dates likes this year (Its been at May 2006 since Sept 2010). If this year was an exception, normally how long does it take for the dates to move from jyly 2007 to sept 2007?

Also, what kind of a chance is there for the PD to go to sept 2007?

Thanks a lot.

[veni001]

Hello,

Can someone please shed some light on this question.

Thanks.


Sept 2007 Priority Date?



Hello All,

This is my first post here. First of all congratulations on the great work you guys have been doing and thanks for all the support with answering the queries.

I had a question about priority dates. My priority date is sept 2007..I am sure its really difficult to get current this year. Assuming it doesn't and lets say the dates only go to July 2007, why does USCIS always wait till April/May to move the current dates likes this year (Its been at May 2006 since Sept 2010). If this year was an exception, normally how long does it take for the dates to move from jyly 2007 to sept 2007?

Also, what kind of a chance is there for the PD to go to sept 2007?

Thanks a lot.

Krishnav,
We cannot completely rule out that EB2IC dates will not move beyond July 2007, hopefully we will get a glimpse in may 2007 Bulletin(next week).
The reason dates are not moving in the beginning of FY is because no spillover or fall across applied by USCIS, without which EB2I gets only 233 VISAS per month ({7% of 40k}/12).

[krishnav]

Krishnav,
We cannot completely rule out that EB2IC dates will not move beyond July 2007, hopefully we will get a glimpse in may 2007 Bulletin(next week).
The reason dates are not moving in the beginning of FY is because no spillover or fall across applied by USCIS, without which EB2I gets only 233 VISAS per month ({7% of 40k}/12).

Thanks Veni001 for the response.

I understanf without spillover EB2I only gets less number (233 as you said) of VISAS per month. But why dont the dates change even by a day or week for months? Essentially, my question is why do they want to wait till May or June to get an actual count of the spillover numbers available when they should be concentrating first on the available count of visas.

Now, if there 233 x 6 = 1398 visas already taken care of but all of them fall under dates before May 08 2006 then never mind...I understand. Sorry, if this is a stupid question.

[veni001]

Thanks Veni001 for the response.

I understanf without spillover EB2I only gets less number (233 as you said) of VISAS per month. But why dont the dates change even by a day or week for months? Essentially, my question is why do they want to wait till May or June to get an actual count of the spillover numbers available when they should be concentrating first on the available count of visas.

Now, if there 233 x 6 = 1398 visas already taken care of but all of them fall under dates before May 08 2006 then never mind...I understand. Sorry, if this is a stupid question.

No one knows how and when USCIS applies Fall across and Spill over numbers. Last year it started in last quarter, this year is going to be in May, as per the sources.

[leo07]

Krishnav, firstly there's no stupid question. In fact, yours is a good question.

Basically, there are two parameters for EB2I( to certain extent C): a. Existing EB2-I applications before may 08 2006. b. Upgraded Eb3I Applications that have priority dates before May 08,2006.

In the current scenario where CIS strictly moves with monthly available visas--> In a given month, for the dates to move even by a day, =Sum(all_eb2I_applications_with_PD_before_may08_20 06_including_upgraded_Eb3_2_EB2_cases) < ~275

However, with Charles O's claim that there are 12k additional EB1 visas readily available to be applied to EB2IC, the above equation could be thrown out of the window.

Thanks Veni001 for the response.

I understanf without spillover EB2I only gets less number (233 as you said) of VISAS per month. But why dont the dates change even by a day or week for months? Essentially, my question is why do they want to wait till May or June to get an actual count of the spillover numbers available when they should be concentrating first on the available count of visas.

Now, if there 233 x 6 = 1398 visas already taken care of but all of them fall under dates before May 08 2006 then never mind...I understand. Sorry, if this is a stupid question.

[krishnav]

No one knows how and when USCIS applies Fall across and Spill over numbers. Last year it started in last quarter, this year is going to be in May, as per the sources.

Thanks again Veni001

[krishnav]

Krishnav, firstly there's no stupid question. In fact, yours is a good question.

Basically, there are two parameters for EB2I( to certain extent C): a. Existing EB2-I applications before may 08 2006. b. Upgraded Eb3I Applications that have priority dates before May 08,2006.

In the current scenario where CIS strictly moves with monthly available visas--> In a given month, for the dates to move even by a day, =Sum(all_eb2I_applications_with_PD_before_may08_20 06_including_upgraded_Eb3_2_EB2_cases) < ~275

However, with Charles O's claim that there are 12k additional EB1 visas readily available to be applied to EB2IC, the above equation could be thrown out of the window.

Thanks you Leo07

[TeluguBidda]

No one knows how and when USCIS applies Fall across and Spill over numbers. Last year it started in last quarter, this year is going to be in May, as per the sources.

Are you sure? The only update so far is that 12000 visas from EB-1 will be added to EB-2 category. There has not been any update or talk around general falldown or spillover

[veni001]

Are you sure? The only update so far is that 12000 visas from EB-1 will be added to EB-2 category. There has not been any update or talk around general falldown or spillover

Don't know, but we will by next week!

[nuvikas]

Latest post by Ron - Interesting

Possible EB-2 Priority Date Movement in the Coming Months

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 11040563 (posted Apr. 5, 2011)"


Following-up on his earlier observations on EB-1 demand and "spill-down" to EB-2 reported on InfoNet on March 29, 2011 (InfoNet Doc. No. 11032960), Charlie Oppenheim discussed scenarios for EB-2 movement in the coming months. In preparation of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin, DOS will consider the approximately 12,000 unused EB-1 numbers that will "spill-down" to EB-2, EB-2 demand and possible unused numbers, and will consult with USCIS on its processing potential. A quick look by DOS at this point indicates that there is the possibility for greater advancement of the India EB-2 category than had earlier been thought. Doing so will give DOS better visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand in the pipeline, and will better ensure that all visas allowed annually are used. However, a rapid advance could spur a surge in demand that could impact the cut-off dates later in the year. The May Visa Bulletin, generally issued mid-April, will contain a discussion of visa availability projections for the remainder of the year.

[baba2s]

Good news.

This confirm that 12000 is available from just first 6 months ( its not estimate for full FY). Assuming another 12000 for next 6 months, we are looking for lot spillover

24000 (EB1) + 10000 ( EB2 ROW) + 7500 (EB5) = 40000+
wow.. Happy days ahead

Latest post by Ron - Interesting

Possible EB-2 Priority Date Movement in the Coming Months

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 11040563 (posted Apr. 5, 2011)"


Following-up on his earlier observations on EB-1 demand and "spill-down" to EB-2 reported on InfoNet on March 29, 2011 (InfoNet Doc. No. 11032960), Charlie Oppenheim discussed scenarios for EB-2 movement in the coming months. In preparation of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin, DOS will consider the approximately 12,000 unused EB-1 numbers that will "spill-down" to EB-2, EB-2 demand and possible unused numbers, and will consult with USCIS on its processing potential. A quick look by DOS at this point indicates that there is the possibility for greater advancement of the India EB-2 category than had earlier been thought. Doing so will give DOS better visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand in the pipeline, and will better ensure that all visas allowed annually are used. However, a rapid advance could spur a surge in demand that could impact the cut-off dates later in the year. The May Visa Bulletin, generally issued mid-April, will contain a discussion of visa availability projections for the remainder of the year.

[leo07]

Thanks for the post. It's good to see that DOS is trying to forecast this time, instead of strictly going by numbers.

Depending on how far they move dates in May-Bulletin, there could be a danger however for "border-line"(May-June-July 2007 PDs) folks.

[ifaith]

Thanks for the post. It's good to see that DOS is trying to forecast this time, instead of strictly going by numbers.

Depending on how far they move dates in May-Bulletin, there could be a danger however for "border-line"(May-June-July 2006 PDs) folks.

Hi Leo07
Can you elaborate on "there could be a danger however for "border-line"(May-June-July 2006 PDs" not sure what danger you are talking about.

Thanks
A

[veni001]

Good news.

This confirm that 12000 is available from just first 6 months ( its not estimate for full FY). Assuming another 12000 for next 6 months, we are looking for lot spillover

24000 (EB1) + 10000 ( EB2 ROW) + 7500 (EB5) = 40000+
wow.. Happy days ahead

If this is going to be the case then, they need to move dates to DEC 2007 in May 2011 to give enough time to process new applications to utilize all FY 2011 VISAS by September 2011.

[khushraho]

First of all thanks for the good work..Good work..This is my first post in this forum..


My question is, did your Eb2 prediction take into account the possible 140 rejections?

This is important as USCIS is behind these small body shopping companies now a days and they constitute at least half of these PERM approvals..

My swag is 75% approval and 25% rejection. Anywhere close?

[qesehmk]

Khush,

Welcome to forum. The I-140 approval rejection is baked into "the 50% reduction in new 485 filings" assumption.

First of all thanks for the good work..Good work..This is my first post in this forum..


My question is, did your Eb2 prediction take into account the possible 140 rejections?

This is important as USCIS is behind these small body shopping companies now a days and they constitute at least half of these PERM approvals..

My swag is 75% approval and 25% rejection. Anywhere close?

[veni001]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...s-2011-feb.pdf

Receipts and approvals are down!

[anuran]

There are lots of predictions that seem to project May VB dates somewhere between 01Jan2007 to even early 2009. As of now DoS seems to have 12000 visas and indications are that it would be divided between India and China as 9000 and 3000 visas respectively - an approximate 36% of the backlog. The cumulative pending I485s till October2006 is 10109 for India & 3609 for China. This can be cleared with 12000. This would leave India and China with further pending 13000 and 6000 485s, respectively... and a PD of October 2006. Furthermore backlogs can be cleared only as DoS gets a better picture of more spillovers. Interestingly some Chinese websites are indicating that some lawyers have been in communication with DoS and think that their 2800 allocation will also be exhausted in May'11. If that is true then Dec2006 PD in May is a possibility.

However I do understand what some seem to think as overall predicted spillover in the range of 40k and the expected complete abolition of the 34183 pending 485s for I/C. And thus the predicted movement of the PD to Aug 2007 sometime during May-Sep'2011. I cannot see any reason to predict dates beyond that. However, I have a feeling that from May'11 onwards the PD will move much more steadily and rapidly than we have been seeing in the past. That would be due to the efficient processing and management of spillovers by the whomsoever is dealing them.

[pch053]

This is the link to the thread in Ron's forum which updates on the discussion related to EB2 PD movement. Based on my understanding after reading the update, they will consider 12,000 FD from EB1 to EB2 for the May bulletin. This will translate to around approx. 9,000 visas going to EB2-I & 3,000 going to EB2-C and the PD will be in the range of Oct'06. I will be interested in seeing Ron's reply on EB2 movement prediction in this thread.
http://www.immigration-information.c...ovement-13856/