EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Thanks qeshmk. You are awesome . I think you should also consider a career in personal coaching ( just my opinion- look at how well you explained my situation!!!! ) Thanks buddy!!!!!!

You are very welcome Punjabi. Best wishes.

Spectator I saw a post from you but now its gone. I think you made some suggestions to change the layout of information. I would be happy to improve. Let me know if so.

[TeddyKoochu]

The latest demand data has some bad news for us the table shows the cap as 140K so probably no FB spillover for this year. Q I believe that this dashes any chances whatsoever of the dates reaching 01-AUG-2007, also I believe that the SOFAD that we should consider changes from 26.5 K to 20K and this would only take is to the end of 2006 (01-JAN-2007) conservative.

[qesehmk]

The latest demand data has some bad news for us the table shows the cap as 140K so probably no FB spillover for this year. Q I believe that this dashes any chances whatsoever of the dates reaching 01-AUG-2007, also I believe that the SOFAD that we should consider changes from 26.5 K to 20K and this would only take is to the end of 2006 (01-JAN-2007) conservative.

Teddy thanks and agree but i wouldn't be as hard in terms of hopes being dashed. On the contrary I feel much better that ROW is now current-current (485 and labor). Pls refer to the top of the thread that I have updated.

[Spectator]

Spectator I saw a post from you but now its gone. I think you made some suggestions to change the layout of information. I would be happy to improve. Let me know if so.

I had a typo in the attachment which I wanted to correct.

Currently I don't seem to be able to upload the corrected file using the upload manager.

I will try later. Hopefully I will have better luck then.

[Spectator]

The bad news however is that in 2011 FB spillover is absent (at least so far we haven't heard anything). That takes away 10K compared to last year. Otherwise the EB2 backlog would be cleared through Jun-Jul 2007.

The fact that DOS stopped allocating FB visas 2 weeks early wasn't a great sign - I agree.

I think the jury is still out on this one.

The VB always uses the term:

The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.

until around July/August, when USCIS finally give DOS the information they need to make a proper determination.

Quite why it takes USCIS so long is beyond me.

We should know for sure in Jan/Feb 2011, when the Visa Statistics for FY2010 are published.

Let's hope it is good news.

[qesehmk]

The fact that DOS stopped allocating FB visas 2 weeks early wasn't a great sign - I agree.

I think the jury is still out on this one.

The VB always uses the term:

until around July/August, when USCIS finally give DOS the information they need to make a proper determination.

Quite why it takes USCIS so long is beyond me.

We should know for sure in Jan/Feb 2011, when the Visa Statistics for FY2010 are published.

Let's hope it is good news.

Thanks. I think it would be wise to not rely on any FB spillover when predicting 2011.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy thanks and agree but i wouldn't be as hard in terms of hopes being dashed. On the contrary I feel much better that ROW is now current-current (485 and labor). Pls refer to the top of the thread that I have updated.

Thanks Q I went through the first post, lets hope for EB2 ROW to be as it is. Hoping for the best. On the FB I was just hoping that we could have atleast the same as last year though, if the news is true then its certainly is bad news though; but yes your predictions for EB2 ROW demand make up this deficit. Also did you notice something else the demand data for Nov VB is less than the inventory for Oct, this leads me to believe that all pending prior to May 06 have a cap number assigned, this might help to increase the predictions.

[Spectator]

Q,

Thanks for the latest prediction.

It took me a while to get my head around it Perhaps I was having a senior moment!

I think I now know what the figures are saying and I had a suggestion as to how the presentation could be tweaked slightly.

I think the revision shows more clearly the total usage of visas, the spare visas available, where they came from and the projected SOFAD.

The layout more closely matches your commentary and makes it easier (at least for me) to see where the figures are coming from.

It is of course just a personal observation and is meant to be constructive.

If I am reading the spreadsheet incorrectly, please (and I am sure you will) correct me.

PS My problems regarding uploading seem to be related to IE9 Beta, which I am using on the other computer.

[qesehmk]

Teddy / Spec

Good inputs. Thanks. Will update the thread soon!.

Thanks Q I went through the first post, lets hope for EB2 ROW to be as it is. Hoping for the best. On the FB I was just hoping that we could have atleast the same as last year though, if the news is true then its certainly is bad news though; but yes your predictions for EB2 ROW demand make up this deficit. Also did you notice something else the demand data for Nov VB is less than the inventory for Oct, this leads me to believe that all pending prior to May 06 have a cap number assigned, this might help to increase the predictions.

Q,

Thanks for the latest prediction.

It took me a while to get my head around it Perhaps I was having a senior moment!

I think I now know what the figures are saying and I had a suggestion as to how the presentation could be tweaked slightly.

I think the revision shows more clearly the total usage of visas, the spare visas available, where they came from and the projected SOFAD.

The layout more closely matches your commentary and makes it easier (at least for me) to see where the figures are coming from.

It is of course just a personal observation and is meant to be constructive.

If I am reading the spreadsheet incorrectly, please (and I am sure you will) correct me.

PS My problems regarding uploading seem to be related to IE9 Beta, which I am using on the other computer.

[operas]

Thanks for your great analysis. My priority date is Feb 25 2010, I have my I 140 approved, when can I expect to file my 485 and approximately when will I have my greencard in hand ?

Thanks

[TeddyKoochu]

Guys I did some research on Trackitt to see EB2 ROW approvals for Oct.

Oct 2009 - 173
Oct 2010 - 33

Now the drop in Eb2 ROW usage is pretty huge and potentially this could add 15-16K more SOFAD to us. Here's today’s equation.

15-16K added due to ROW decline
6.6K lost due to FB
1.5K added becoz cases prior to May 2006 will use last years cap.

All in All around 10K extra SOFAD is expected. Guys don't bank on this for now however we should wait to see the approvals data till another quarter to be judgmental. However the trend is great for us. 10K extra means 4 months of movement which may mean a date of 01-MAY-2007 (Optimistic).

[Spectator]

Guys I did some research on that website to see EB2 ROW approvals for Oct.

Teddy,

I think you can call it TRACKITT here. No one will delete or edit your post for such a heinous crime!

Now the drop in Eb2 ROW usage is pretty huge and potentially this could add 15-16K more SOFAD to us.

It' a bit early to extrapolate that sort of conclusion. At least wait until the month finishes!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I think you can call it TRACKITT here. No one will delete or edit your post for such a heinous crime!



It' a bit early to extrapolate that sort of conclusion. At least wait until the month finishes!

Spectator I agree lets acknowledge that this data is from TRACKITT (Old habbit ). I agree that its premature and only mid month but the trend is fairly decisive, here is EB1.

Following are the figures for EB1, the approval rate decline is even more dramatic.

EB1 A - 2
Eb1 B - 0
EB1 C - 2

EB1-A - 26
EB1-B - 44
EB1C - 38

I believe that we should keep observing this trend over time and we will have higer SOFAD this year much higher even without FB. It could possibly be 45K which could wipe out all backlog prior to Aug 2007.

[gcq]

Teddy,

I think you can call it TRACKITT here. No one will delete or edit your post for such a heinous crime!

Good One !

[TeddyKoochu]

Good One !

Guys I edited my post to acknowledge "TRACKITT" , do comment on the approvals trend even though its just half a month (Multiply 2010 by 2 or even 3) it looks pretty decisive.

[qesehmk]

Updated the header of the thread based on Spec's inputs. Thanks Specs.

Teddy, regarding your trackitt observation - first of all its ok to call out TRACKITT. But its not ok to call out that other website !! Oink Oink !! Just kidding!! You can call out anything you want. Our purpose is to bring clarity. Which way it comes doesn't really matter.

But on another note - next week I am going to list a bollywood poem just to lighten up that thread!! Its getting quite heady. Any suggestions? Anybody? I am thinking of "Pappu Can't Dance Sala"!! :-) Kidding again!! But that little cheat indeed tried to smear my name .... so i might as well be serious.

Anyway ... getting back to more value added topics ...


Teddy looking at trackitt appproval trend would be waaaaaayyyy tooooo early. I would recommend it after Q1 i.e in January. Secondly you mentioned that visa demand data is lower than inventory. Well that's always the case. Because demand data relates to only APPROVABLE CASES. Many cases are not mature enough and are not reported to DOS. So we shouldn't read too much into that data point.

Teddy,

I think you can call it TRACKITT here. No one will delete or edit your post for such a heinous crime!



It' a bit early to extrapolate that sort of conclusion. At least wait until the month finishes!

Thanks for your great analysis. My priority date is Feb 25 2010, I have my I 140 approved, when can I expect to file my 485 and approximately when will I have my greencard in hand ?

Thanks

This will be an extremely wild guess. There are about 57K in backlog today. Between Jul-07 and your date there are approx 45K more. Plus I would expect 15-20K EB3 conversions. So we are in 120K neighborhood. At 25K SOFAD per year we are talking 5 years from now for you to get your GC.

In general for EB2 5 years wait since PD is a very decent timeframe. So sit back and relax!

p.s. - When would the date be current depends on USCIS doing another round of 2007 fiasco. If that happens it will probably happen around Sep 2011. But that's is tougher to predict. GCPerm (jai shrikrishna!) spent a lifetime claiming that floodgates are going to open. So there are good people thinking that it will actually happen sometime. Not sure when exactly!

[tarz1309]

Q,

Thanks for starting this blog.
Legal Immigration itself is such a convoluted process that weakens the roots of hairs, having bunch of shams running a blog for information & exchange added to the woes.

Looking forward to rational, logical & free exchange in this blog.

[qesehmk]

tarz, thanks.

We can certainly take credit for helping some people by running this same thread on IV. No other thread was even gathering a small fraction of daily views this one was. That speaks to the value people received.

What I was personally disappointed with was IV's animosity towards other immigration websites. Thats the reason we came here. Over here people are welcome to refer to any other site and bring useful information from wherever it belongs without plageurizing (pardon my spelling) and without infringing on anybody's copyright.

Q,

Thanks for starting this blog.
Legal Immigration itself is such a convoluted process that weakens the roots of hairs, having bunch of shams running a blog for information & exchange added to the woes.

Looking forward to rational, logical & free exchange in this blog.

[tarz1309]

Q,

& I was disappointed that this thread in IV was restricted to donors after more than 2 million views. The intentions were amply clear to grab as much as donations in the garb of volunteering.
Once again thanks for taking this pain to host this blog & the admin work involved in doing this.

[qesehmk]

I think we can learn from that and ensure openness and respectful environment here. However we still wish IV the best.

Q,

& I was disappointed that this thread in IV was restricted to donors after more than 2 million views. The intentions were amply clear to grab as much as donations in the garb of volunteering.
Once again thanks for taking this pain to host this blog & the admin work involved in doing this.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks Q my responses inline.

Teddy, regarding your trackitt observation - first of all its ok to call out TRACKITT. But its not ok to call out that other website !! Oink Oink !! Just kidding!! You can call out anything you want. Our purpose is to bring clarity. Which way it comes doesn't really matter.

But on another note - next week I am going to list a bollywood poem just to lighten up that thread!! Its getting quite heady. Any suggestions? Anybody? I am thinking of "Pappu Can't Dance Sala"!! :-) Kidding again!! But that little cheat indeed tried to smear my name .... so i might as well be serious.

Congrats on creating a platform where free speech is accepted and where atleast one can honestly and respectfully call and acknowledge the source of data. For me and all others who are on your blog you are the winner (Both on merit & truth). In this information and in internet age distorting facts is not easy and the exposure can be extremely embarrassing it destroys all goodwill in a single shot.


Anyway ... getting back to more value added topics ...


Teddy looking at trackitt appproval trend would be waaaaaayyyy tooooo early. I would recommend it after Q1 i.e in January. Secondly you mentioned that visa demand data is lower than inventory. Well that's always the case. Because demand data relates to only APPROVABLE CASES. Many cases are not mature enough and are not reported to DOS. So we shouldn't read too much into that data point.

Coming to the demand data I believe that there is a catch yes it shows documentarily qualified candidates but only those waiting for a visa number. Now the inventory is kind of sand witched between the Oct and Nov demand data and really the demand data should be a superset of the inventory. Both the demand data's showed ~ 34K which the inventory is standing out at 35K, this leads me to believe that the 1200 folks prior to May 2006 do not show on the demand data because they already have a cap number assigned to their cases. I had read on Ron's blog a few days back wherein there was a report that the inventory would contain the cases for district offices and NVC as well, looks like this is the case now.

With regards the Trackitt trend I also believe that it’s early days (I also said it ) but just like elections sometimes early leads if narrow can be completely wrong but if the trend is something like 1/3rd for EB2 ROW and almost nothing for EB1 it could well be a good sneak peek. Agree that we should check after a quarter. The trackitt trend kind of justifies you assumption of the EB2 ROW demand this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

The latest demand data has some bad news for us the table shows the cap as 140K so probably no FB spillover for this year. Q I believe that this dashes any chances whatsoever of the dates reaching 01-AUG-2007, also I believe that the SOFAD that we should consider changes from 26.5 K to 20K and this would only take is to the end of 2006 (01-JAN-2007) conservative.

Friends do you last year which was the demand data that showed the EB numbers table updated to show FB, it could be a case that this table is still being computed and while its WIP they reset it back to the regular annual thresholds.

[qesehmk]

Teddy Regarding demand data being a superset .... that is true for dates that are current. Isn't it. For dates that are not current it doesn't matter. So a lot of EB2IC cases are not even reported to DOS. Hope this helps clarify.

Friends do you last year which was the demand data that showed the EB numbers table updated to show FB, it could be a case that this table is still being computed and while its WIP they reset it back to the regular annual thresholds.

:-) hope so. May be they will have better idea after 2010 report is published.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy Regarding demand data being a superset .... that is true for dates that are current. Isn't it. For dates that are not current it doesn't matter. So a lot of EB2IC cases are not even reported to DOS. Hope this helps clarify.


:-) hope so. May be they will have better idea after 2010 report is published.

Thinking this over a little further, when the dates are current like EB2 ROW there is more likelihood that since the cases are not pre-adjudicated then Inventory will be greater than demand data. Refer current inventory and demand data for EB2 ROW.
For retrogressed countries almost all cases are preadjudicated so they should appear on the inventory and demand data both.
- New filings like dependants will not show up on demand data but on inventory as they are WIP, but this should be less that 500.
- The 1200 odd cases prior to May 2006 my hypothesis (maybe wring) have a cap number associated to them and hence they are on the inventory and not on the demand data. A lot of these people got RFE's at a bad time.
Now since the numbers are small either could be a superset but with this info of inventory > demand data Iam just guessing that the 1200 odd cases will go from last years cap, however no VB movement in the 2 months is giving an indicator to the contrary.

[Spectator]

Q,

Sorry to be a pain.

I have poured over your spreadsheet and have found a few minor errors:

a) The quota for EB5-ROW should be 7,852 to reflect China having no allocation per the DOS Demand text.

b) The quota for EB3-China should be reduced by 300 and EB3-ROW should be increased accordingly. See Demand Data text for the reasons.

c) The figure of 8,547 for EB1 FA Given appears too high. Shouldn't the figure just be the sum of EB1-China (2,905) and EB1-India (3,856) for a total of 6,761. I'm not sure where the extra 1,786 has come from.



The spreadsheet still doesn't show the most important figures of how many spare visas are available to EB2-C & EB2-I and therefore SOFAD.

This can be derived from your SOFAD table by adding an extra row.

At the simplest level, spare visas are: (Using the figures from your spreadsheet)

i) Unused visas from EB5 = Quota - Existing backlog - Projected Demand = 9,940 - 23 - 4,218 = 5,699

ii) Unused visas from EB1 = Quota - Existing backlog - Projected Demand = 40,040 - 11,223 - 20,271 = 8,546

iii) Unused visas from EB2-Current (ROW, M, P) = Quota - Existing backlog - Projected Demand = 34,435 - 13,912 - 8,192 = 12,331

That give a total number of spare visas of 26,576 and SOFAD of 26,576 + 2,803 + 2,803 = 32,182

I think it is important that both the spare visas and SOFAD are shown in your presentation jpg to bring clarity to the figures.

The attachment shows the amendments and revisions discussed above for your consideration. If you can't work out how the figures are derived, just ask, although I think that shouldn't be a problem to you.