EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[kd2008]

New demand data out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 4,200 13,200 0 17,400
January 1, 2008 9,725 22,950 0 32,675
January 1, 2011 9,800 23,050 100 32,950

[zzz666]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html

Sorry...kd2008 beat me by 1 min

[gcwait2007]

New demand data out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 4,200 13,200 0 17,400
January 1, 2008 9,725 22,950 0 32,675
January 1, 2011 9,800 23,050 100 32,950

For India, EB3 to EB2 porting has been happening and exceeding >233 visas each month

[shaumack]

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

For India, EB3 to EB2 porting has been happening and exceeding >233 visas each month

[qesehmk]

Shaumack ... very interesting post. Thanks.

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

[Gclongwait]

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

I have a question on this part of the statement

"I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

[pch053]

I don't think EB3 folks with PDs between 2006 - July 2007 who are porting to EB2 will need to refile their I485. Of course, some of them might have missed the boat during July - Aug 2007 time and they need to file their new I485 but that also applies to EB2 folks (i.e. who directly applied in EB2 to begin with) also.

I feel there might be somewhat increased EB3 -> EB2 filing in the coming years but I don't have an idea whether it will cross 6,000 by a huge margin. From the pending EB inventory, there are around ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 (1st Jan 2011 is same as July-Aug'07 as far as the pending cases are concerned). If we assume that 50% of these folks will successfully port to EB2 category (I think this is an upper bound), then there will be effectively around 7.5K porting (max) from EB3->EB2 in the coming 1 -2 years. This doesn't account for people who might have missed filing during July - Aug'07 and I don't know what will be a reasonable number for the same.

Just my thoughts, not sure whether there is a flaw in my reasoning. Thanks!

[kera.sam]

We also need to figure a way to estimate the new I485 applications being filed for the dependents once they successfully port from EB3 to EB2. Imagine an EB3 2005 getting married in October 2007. Once the EB3 to EB2 conversion is complete, the primary applicant will add the dependents which will account for additional visa numbers. Please correct me if I am wrong. I am not sure if there is way at all to calculate this number other than getting it from the inventory report.

[quizzer]

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

Based on the latest demand data, will there be any change to the predicted/calculated Jul-Sep 2011 PD for EB2I? Nov 2006 - Mar 2007?

[veni001]

.....
.......
.......

My $0.002 cents on this.

It's not two cents! two mills, kidding.

[veni001]

I have a question on this part of the statement

"I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

Same I-485 will be used, one can not have two I-485 applications pending at the same time.

[shaumack]

I have a question on this part of the statement

"I believe most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

Sorry for not being attentive. I was rushing through this during my lunch break. As veni mentioned you cannot have more than one I-485 pending at a time. The whole point is that most of the spillover will be used by folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has successfully ported from EB3 to EB2 but are not current now. They will eventually be as dates would progress to late 2006 or early 2007 after FY 2011. This will bring in whole new lot that will continue chewing up visa numbers.

I feel there might be somewhat increased EB3 -> EB2 filing in the coming years but I don't have an idea whether it will cross 6,000 by a huge margin. From the pending EB inventory, there are around ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 (1st Jan 2011 is same as July-Aug'07 as far as the pending cases are concerned). If we assume that 50% of these folks will successfully port to EB2 category (I think this is an upper bound), then there will be effectively around 7.5K porting (max) from EB3->EB2 in the coming 1 -2 years.

Since we know that EB3-I is gonna be a black hole, I will not be surprised that in coming years more and more EB3s with PD between 2002 - 2005 would find different ways to qualify them to port from EB3 to EB2 either by a) changing jobs that would qualify them to EB2 b) persuading their current employers to upgrade their case to EB2 or c) attaining higher education and then changing jobs. With fleeting time more n more people are becoming aware that EB3 to EB2 porting is the ONLY way to get out of this mess and there is no point in hanging on to their current EB3 jobs. So we will continuously see porting happening with folks with PD between 2002-2005 in addition to those who will port from ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 as you mentioned. So porting number will keep on rising and would never plateau.

It's not two cents! two mills, kidding.

Lol ..tru that .. I was rushing … but as long as it adds to the discussion it is all good.

[pch053]

I agree the porting numbers will probably rise in the coming years but the question is by how much, which probably is not very easy to guess either! From seeing people's estimates, it seems that EB3->EB2 porting will be in the range of 4K - 6K for the current year. Going by the green card allocation numbers, the EB3->EB2 porting was estimated to be around 3K for the last year. In the coming year, EB3->EB2 porting might be more than what we are seeing this year but I am not sure whether there will be significant increase from what we are seeing now in the coming year (maybe it will be 15 - 20% more; I am just throwing up a number here).

On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.

THanks!

[veni001]

I agree the porting numbers will probably rise in the coming years but the question is by how much, which probably is not very easy to guess either! From seeing people's estimates, it seems that EB3->EB2 porting will be in the range of 4K - 6K for the current year. Going by the green card allocation numbers, the EB3->EB2 porting was estimated to be around 3K for the last year. In the coming year, EB3->EB2 porting might be more than what we are seeing this year but I am not sure whether there will be significant increase from what we are seeing now in the coming year (maybe it will be 15 - 20% more; I am just throwing up a number here).

On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.

THanks!

Mostly depend on where do we stand by October 2011 and also FY2011/2012 PERM certifications.

[qesehmk]

.... most of the spillover will be used by folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has successfully ported from EB3 to EB2 but are not current now.

Have you calculated how much true porting might be today. (where true means not just the ones that are eating into SOFAD this year but also the ones are being ported but the date is not current yet). We know the answer about SOFAD piece (likely that is 3-4K). The question is what is the other piece and is it significant.

On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.

I think its quite possible to reach Aug 07 by Sep 12. Almost a certainty. If the date reaches nov-dec 06 this year. That leaves hardly 14-15K for 2007. So everything else being constant if porting rises to 5-6-7K ... should still be more than enough to make Aug 07 current by Sep 12.

p.s. - I didn't comment on Demand data since there was nothing new / unexpected there.

[bieber]

why there would be more porting for EB3 people with June06-Jul07 dates? compared to 02-May06

also remember that dates moved to Aug06 in 2008 for brief period, I think spouce 485s of Aug06-Jul07 EB2 will be more than porting EB3s of the same time frame

[veni001]

why there would be more porting for EB3 people with June06-Jul07 dates? compared to 02-May06

also remember that dates moved to Aug06 in 2008 for brief period, I think spouce 485s of Aug06-Jul07 EB2 will be more than porting EB3s of the same time frame

Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

[veni001]

Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

April 2011 VB is out!
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5368.html
No change for EB2I

[qesehmk]

Thanks Veni.
Status quo continues.

April 2011 VB is out!
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5368.html
No change for EB2

[veni001]

Thanks Veni.
Status quo continues.

That's right!

EB2C - 2 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3I - 3 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3ROW - 3 weeks forward movement (Very Good!)

[qesehmk]

Look at the EB3I 3 weeks movement. That's very interesting.

If 3 weeks on 6 months is equivalent to "X" 485 cases then for full year that would be 2X 485 cases (given that spillover is absent).

I would roughly imagine that is about 4-5K. Of that 4-5K on a full year 2.8K is attributable to quota. So it tells us that EB3I->EB2I porting isn't a big issue. Right?

That's right!

EB2C - 2 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3I - 3 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3ROW - 3 weeks forward movement (Very Good!)

[pch053]

In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

[qesehmk]

That is the difference between DoS demand data and USCIS 485 inventory. DoS demand does include CP demand (to the extent the case is ready to assign a visa).

And yes its DoS that moves the dates based on demand data. They DO NOT look at USCIS 485 inventory.

In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

[bieber]

Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

very true veni

[veni001]

In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

Pch053,
Yes, they do but CP number is not significant for EB2I/C or even ROW, Spec posted CP calculations (post#509) in this thread.
3.72% for EB1(all countries, total 1971 cases in Fy 2010)
0.74% for EB2I(102 cases in FY 2010)
1.18% for EB2C( only 70 cases in FY 2010)
3.11% for EB2ROW(1,167 for Fy 2010)

CP percentage is high for EB3( overall 16% ) , i believe mainly due to 245(i) cases.