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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #826
    GCW that statement is not even worth 5 seconds of attention. If we give credence to such things ... we are doing disservice to those who come here for objective good information.

    p.s. - Don't doubt your good intentions though!
    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Ron has replied to one of the queries as follows-

    Re: EB2 will not become current for India/China I have to disagree with that assessment. The number of "spill over" visas from Worldwide EB2 last year was almost equal to the known EB2 India backlog. The reason that the backlog did not go down was because more than 15,000 India EB3 cases with earlier priority dates were upgraded to EB2. That is going to come to an end in the not too distant future. When it does, India EB2 will start moving forward very quickly.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  2. #827
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    GCW that statement is not even worth 5 seconds of attention. If we give credence to such things ... we are doing disservice to those who come here for objective good information.

    p.s. - Don't doubt your good intentions though!
    Sorry for quick posting without adding my comments.

    According to Ron, the actual spillover was around 42K last year. However the whole spillover did not go for EB2 India and China backlog clearence/ reduction. While 27K helped to move the date to 08-May-2006 for EB2 India and China, rest 15K went for porting.

    According to Ron, one can expect similar spillover this year as well but porting will be cleared. Over a period of time, the porting wave is expected to stop and spillover will be passed to clear the backlog of EB2India and China.

  3. #828
    Last year there was a surge in PERM approvals which resulted in EB2 ROW to consume significant and yet they did manage to provide visas to EB2 IC. But it is nowhere in teh range what you are quoting below.

    This year there will be some after effects of the PERM surge from last year but the ROW approvals will be much less compared to 2010. However since FB spillover is missing this year (almost 10K) ...overall SOFAD will be slighly less or equal to last year.

    Ron G's statements and numbers are a gimmick to attrack more EB2->3 cases to his account.

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Sorry for quick posting without adding my comments.

    According to Ron, the actual spillover was around 42K last year. However the whole spillover did not go for EB2 India and China backlog clearence/ reduction. While 27K helped to move the date to 08-May-2006 for EB2 India and China, rest 15K went for porting.

    According to Ron, one can expect similar spillover this year as well but porting will be cleared. Over a period of time, the porting wave is expected to stop and spillover will be passed to clear the backlog of EB2India and China.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  4. #829

    Just a genaral suggestion...

    I think when we quote somebody, in this case Mr Ron Gotcher, we must also quote the question we posed initially. If not, the quote can develop it's own meaning, much different from the original. I know it's more a oversight on your part but I wanted to bring it up. I'm sure I have done this many times before...so please don't take it personally. I'm no way defending the logic in Ron's answer, I know his answer is flawed.

    Here is the question posed to Ron:

    "My employer's immigration attorney indicated that EB2 will never become current in the future even if the dates advance by a year to July 2007. According to him it will only advance few months at a time even if visa numbers are available. According to him the powers to make EB2 current rests with the state department and that they would not do it in the future as CIS opposes making EB2 current.

    This is the first time I heard this version. Is this correct ? "

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Ron has replied to one of the queries as follows-

    Re: EB2 will not become current for India/China I have to disagree with that assessment. The number of "spill over" visas from Worldwide EB2 last year was almost equal to the known EB2 India backlog. The reason that the backlog did not go down was because more than 15,000 India EB3 cases with earlier priority dates were upgraded to EB2. That is going to come to an end in the not too distant future. When it does, India EB2 will start moving forward very quickly.

  5. #830
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    I think when we quote somebody, in this case Mr Ron Gotcher, we must also quote the question we posed initially. If not, the quote can develop it's own meaning, much different from the original. I know it's more a oversight on your part but I wanted to bring it up. I'm sure I have done this many times before...so please don't take it personally. I'm no way defending the logic in Ron's answer, I know his answer is flawed.

    Here is the question posed to Ron:

    "My employer's immigration attorney indicated that EB2 will never become current in the future even if the dates advance by a year to July 2007. According to him it will only advance few months at a time even if visa numbers are available. According to him the powers to make EB2 current rests with the state department and that they would not do it in the future as CIS opposes making EB2 current.

    This is the first time I heard this version. Is this correct ? "
    I agree with you completely

  6. #831
    Agree about context.

    By the way I agree with the attorney with a qualifier. I do think that EB2 won't be current anytime soon EXCEPT for a month or two max to create a window to take in additional 485 applications. But other than that exception actually the other attorney is right on money.


    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    I think when we quote somebody, in this case Mr Ron Gotcher, we must also quote the question we posed initially. If not, the quote can develop it's own meaning, much different from the original. I know it's more a oversight on your part but I wanted to bring it up. I'm sure I have done this many times before...so please don't take it personally. I'm no way defending the logic in Ron's answer, I know his answer is flawed.

    Here is the question posed to Ron:

    "My employer's immigration attorney indicated that EB2 will never become current in the future even if the dates advance by a year to July 2007. According to him it will only advance few months at a time even if visa numbers are available. According to him the powers to make EB2 current rests with the state department and that they would not do it in the future as CIS opposes making EB2 current.

    This is the first time I heard this version. Is this correct ? "
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  7. #832
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Based on Ron's comments, 15K EB3-I cases were ported to EB2 category. Does this estimate look correct? I think EB3->EB2 porting was much lower than this number last year; else, we would have observed the number of pending EB2 cases shrinking in a similar proportion. Or, maybe I am mis-interpreting Ron's statement.

  8. #833
    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    Based on Ron's comments, 15K EB3-I cases were ported to EB2 category. Does this estimate look correct? I think EB3->EB2 porting was much lower than this number last year; else, we would have observed the number of pending EB2 cases shrinking in a similar proportion. Or, maybe I am mis-interpreting Ron's statement.
    Ron has over estimated the porting cases by 5 times.

  9. #834
    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Ron has over estimated the porting cases by 5 times.
    I agree. If there was such high porting, the dates would have retrogessed to way behind. My understanding of the bulletin date is that the last date that can get a visa is where it is set. If porting was 15K then many people from for eg 2004, 2003 or for that matter any date who are porting also could not have gotten visas therefore the dates would have retrogessed. I think most gurus here by now agree that porting is just enough to use the 2.7K visas a year.

    Ofcourse the one thing that may be happening is most porting is from dates after 8th May 06 which anyway is not current. My gut instinct is that more porting may be happening on PD after July 07 since before that people already have EAD and AP which gives them freedom from employer, freedom from visa stamping and freedom from the 2 month sword hanging on your head if you lose your job.

    Wonder what gurus say about this?

  10. #835
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    EB2 / EB3 Ratio

    Earlier in the thread, there was a conversation about the ratio of EB2 to EB3 applications in the PERM data.

    There were differing opinions, but mainly these were based on gut feel. There was also a discussion about using Salary level and Wage Level to further refine the data.

    Recently DOL have published data on Prevailing Wage Determination (PWD) requests for both FY2010 and Q1 FY2011 http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

    This data includes the minimum educational and experience requirements, which could be very useful for determining EB2 vs. EB3.

    The analyzed data is presented below. I was quite aggressive in pruning the Other category when determining which Preference Category the job was likely to fall under, although it doesn’t form a huge % of the data set.

    PWD Requests FY2010

    Category -- No. ------ %

    EB2 ------ 33,404 -- 65.84%
    EB3 ------ 17,332 -- 34.16%

    Total ---- 50,736 - 100.00%

    Min Education --------- No. ----- %

    Bachelors + 5 -------- 9,916 -- 29.69%
    Masters ------------- 18,904 -- 56.59%
    PhD ------------------ 2,169 --- 6.49%
    Other (JD, MD etc) --- 2,415 --- 7.23%

    Total --------------- 33,404 - 100.00%

    Obvious non EB2 removed from Other

    The data for FY2010 is not the complete picture, since is only covers the period from Jan 20, 2010 to 30 Sep, 2010. Pro-rated for the entire year would give a total of c.73k.
    (2)Disclosure data includes prevailing wage determinations issued from the OFLC iCERT Visa Portal System between January 20 and September 30, 2010 when employers began electronic filing of requests for prevailing wage determinations.
    (3)Prior to January 1, 2010, all prevailing wage determinations were received and processed by State Workforce Agencies. No national level electronic record data are available.


    PWD Requests Q1 FY2011

    Category -- No. ------ %

    EB2 ------ 16,309 -- 68.94%
    EB3 ------- 7,348 -- 31.06%

    Total ---- 23,657 - 100.00%


    Min Education --------- No. ----- %

    Bachelors + 5 -------- 4,679 -- 28.69%
    Masters -------------- 9,828 -- 60.26%
    PhD -------------------- 992 --- 6.08%
    Other (JD, MD etc) ----- 810 --- 4.97%

    Total --------------- 16,309 - 100.00%

    Obvious non EB2 removed from Other


    The % splits have remained fairly consistent.

    Unfortunately, Country data is not provided in the PWD data. I don’t think it would be an unfair assumption, given the Cut Off Dates, to suppose that the % of EB2 applications for India would be higher than shown and that ROW would be lower.

    Overall, that leads me to think that, for ROW, a 50:50 split for EB2:EB3 might be be a reasonable working assumption to make.

    Beyond that, I don’t want to make any further inferences.
    Last edited by Spectator; 03-28-2011 at 01:29 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  11. #836
    Spec, good to see you back. Your information makes perfect sense to me. As EB3 has become a black tunnel, it would be natural we would see increased appetite for EB2. For ROW, 50-50 split makes sense. It is supported by trackitt data.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Earlier in the thread, there was a conversation about the ratio of EB2 to EB3 applications in the PERM data.

    Overall, that leads me to think that, for ROW, a 50:50 split for EB2:EB3 might be be a reasonable working assumption to make.

    Beyond that, I don’t want to make any further inferences.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  12. #837
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Spec, good to see you back. Your information makes perfect sense to me. As EB3 has become a black tunnel, it would be natural we would see increased appetite for EB2. For ROW, 50-50 split makes sense. It is supported by trackitt data.
    Does it make any change in EB2 forward predictions? Thanks.

  13. #838
    Probably not. I think I was using the same assumptions. However the denial rates data that somebody published a few pages back probably helps us by a month or two.

    p.s. I think I have used 50-50 ratio between ROW and IC as well as between EB2-3.

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Does it make any change in EB2 forward predictions? Thanks.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  14. #839
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    .....
    .........
    ........
    Overall, that leads me to think that, for ROW, a 50:50 split for EB2:EB3 might be be a reasonable working assumption to make.[/SIZE][/FONT]

    Beyond that, I don’t want to make any further inferences.
    Spec,
    Welcome back, good analysis.

    Also (%) of the porting cases from the PERM data is unknown.

  15. #840
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Spec,
    Welcome back, good analysis.

    Also (%) of the porting cases from the PERM data is unknown.
    + 1, Spec welcome back as always very thorough, highly detailed and great analysis from you.

  16. #841
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    + 1, Spec welcome back as always very thorough, highly detailed and great analysis from you.
    +2, liked his approach, liked his candid expression

  17. #842
    "...probably helps us by a month or two."

    Qesehmk, the prediction chart shows Nov'06 for EB2 for this year; does the prediction reflect the above said probability.

    On a lighter note, there ain't copyright involved.
    Last edited by MorningSun; 03-03-2011 at 10:31 PM.

  18. #843
    The month or two would be on top of the "Copyrighted" (LoL) prediction in the header :-)

    On another note .... did you guys see the immigration related news items last couple of days? Looks like 2011 there could be another push for immigration reform. The timing will be crucial. It has to happen in 2011 or max early in 2012. They can't afford to do it close to elections.

    Quote Originally Posted by MorningSun View Post
    "...probably helps us by a month or two."

    Qesehmk, the prediction chart shows Nov'06 for EB2 for this year; does the prediction reflect the above said probability.

    On a lighter note, there ain't copyright involved.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  19. #844

    Emerging Movement in Congress for Advance Degree Foreign Worker Immigration Reform

    Guys,
    I found it on http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

    * In his States of Union speech in January 2011, the President emphasized importance of retaining and attracting foreign brains to the nation and legislation to reform the employment-based immigration system. Unfortunately, this word has yet to be followed through by the President. However, some leaders in both Houses in the Hill have been inspired by his speech, and slowly but cautiously bring forward this legislation into the front. Report indicates that Rep. Zoe Lofgren, the current Ranking member of House Judiciary Immigration Subcommittee and the former chairwoman of the same Subcommitte until the end of 2010 has prepared and will introduce a bill which will propose certain high level of foreign workers to obtain permanent resident status and allow them to bypass annual numerical limitation and the labor certification process. There are already two bills in the House to call for the House to reform the employment-based immigration at the level, one by Rep. Jeff Flake of Arizona and the other by Rep. Isaa of California. Interestingly, Senior Senator Orin Hatch of Utah who used to support CIR but lately turned into an anti-CIR senator facing reelection in November 2012 lately urged the Obama Administration to expand H-1B visa numbers and to do something about foreign brain immigration. The CIR that includes legalization of undocumented aliens still remains in the bolt for fear of potential backfires during the November 2012 election season, particularly in the current state of the nation struggling with the high unemployment rate, but the issue of importance of retaining high level of foreign brains within the U.S. has been facing less challenges, particularly from the viewpoint of controlling oursourcing of American businesses and the pressures from business leaders and academic community. Last week, the CEO of 3M Company in Minnesota brought this issue into the front by accusing the Obama Administration for failing to take a leadership on immigration reform to retain and attract top foreign brains and the company's threat to take more manufacturing & R&D businesses out to the certain Asian countries. This CEO eventually had to face a huge uproar from certain segment of the society, but it represented the impatience of the business community with the Obama Administration's failure to take a leadership in the reform of employment-based immigration system. As the nation's economy improves further, such pressure is likely to rise and expand. Something to watch closely.

    Do you guys think some thing positive will happen this year.

    Thanks

  20. #845
    Pandit zenmaster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nayekal View Post
    Guys,
    I found it on http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

    * In his States of Union speech in January 2011, the President emphasized importance of retaining and attracting foreign brains to the nation and legislation to reform the employment-based immigration system. Unfortunately, this word has yet to be followed through by the President. ........

    Do you guys think some thing positive will happen this year.

    Thanks
    Hi nayekal,

    As you already know, no one knows what is going to happen. Albeit, there is always a chance of something to happen. It is more of politics than the 'NEED' to do something about Immigration.
    Let all hope that some legislation passes soon or atleast doors open for all for a month or two so that we are relieved from the H1B troubles.

    Good Luck to all !

  21. #846
    I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
    2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
    Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?

  22. #847

    Lightbulb

    nuvikas

    my understanding is that TSC is more electronic while NSC (not NBC!) is more manual and handles exceptions.

    They probably transferred your case for some sort of exception/due diligence. Looks like that has now cleared and your case is all set and back in TSC where it will finally receive a visa number in next 4-5 months.


    Quote Originally Posted by nuvikas View Post
    I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
    2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
    Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  23. #848
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nuvikas View Post
    I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
    2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
    Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?
    nuvikas,

    That is entirely to be expected. The National Benefits Center (NBC) handles the routing of cases for local Field Office interview.

    In line with this memo http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...a-12-15-10.pdf all Employment Based retrogressed cases preadjudicated at Field Offices are being transferred to Texas Service Center (TSC).

    This allows them to be counted and included in the quarterly USCIS Inventory Reports.

    When you become Current, TSC will handle final adjudication and approval.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  24. #849

    FAQ: Which center has my case?

    Spec, so, how does one find out where the case is? I know my case was filed in TSC.

    Thanks

  25. #850

    Thanks qesehmk & Spectator for your quick response.

    Thanks again. You guys are wonderful for having quoted the actual memorandum.

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