EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[mygctracker]

I'm confused, why are the approval numbers so low esp 2007 & 2008 ? Gurus can you please help me understand these numbers.

----------------------------
YEAR APR DCN %A %D
----------------------------
2005 5,042 340 94% 6%
2006 2,991 146 95% 5%
2007 2,459 283 90% 10%
2008 2,148 172 93% 7%
2009 3,893 300 93% 7%
2010 3,140 306 91% 9%
----------------------------

[veni001]

I'm confused, why are the approval numbers so low esp 2007 & 2008 ? Gurus can you please help me understand these numbers.

----------------------------
YEAR APR DCN %A %D
----------------------------
2005 5,042 340 94% 6%
2006 2,991 146 95% 5%
2007 2,459 283 90% 10%
2008 2,148 172 93% 7%
2009 3,893 300 93% 7%
2010 3,140 306 91% 9%
----------------------------

Looks like this is sampling data than actual data?

[Gclongwait]

Looks like it's only dealing with the "exceptional ability" sub category in the case of EB2. Most people may be under the "advanced degree" subcategory...

[qesehmk]

I'm confused, why are the approval numbers so low esp 2007 & 2008 ? Gurus can you please help me understand these numbers.

----------------------------
YEAR APR DCN %A %D
----------------------------
2005 5,042 340 94% 6%
2006 2,991 146 95% 5%
2007 2,459 283 90% 10%
2008 2,148 172 93% 7%
2009 3,893 300 93% 7%
2010 3,140 306 91% 9%
----------------------------

Looks like it's only dealing with the "exceptional ability" sub category in the case of EB2. Most people may be under the "advanced degree" subcategory...

you are right GCL. EB2 data given is only as it relates to the "Exceptional Ability".

However, the EB1 data is certainly confusing. Although the website says, the data pertains to all of EB1; it looks like the data only relates to "Extraordinary" EB1 (i.e. pulitzer, oscar or olympic medal etc).

[kd2008]

Well, The catergories are

Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)
Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16)
Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12)
Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17)
Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13)
Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18)

Professionals holding advanced degrees, new arrivals (E21)
Professionals holding advanced degrees, adjustments (E26)

as per immigration statistics handbook. So its EB1A and EB1B non-AOS cases. I hope that makes sense. Or it may be EB1A and EB1B cases primary applicants only. Who knows!

[gcwait2007]

Can some one please clarify?

EB2 India for Jan 2007 was 1505 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1540 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.
EB2 India for Feb 2007 was 1431 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1444 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.

How the figures have increased? Is USCIS include EB3 to EB2 porting cases also?

[Gclongwait]

Can some one please clarify?

EB2 India for Jan 2007 was 1505 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1540 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.
EB2 India for Feb 2007 was 1431 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1444 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.

How the figures have increased? Is USCIS include EB3 to EB2 porting cases also?

That's a good question....Would'nt any increase in numbers from 2002 to 2007 be because of porting? Why else would say even 2002 numbers increase from 86 to 98.

[qesehmk]

It looks like that's porting.

Can some one please clarify?

EB2 India for Jan 2007 was 1505 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1540 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.
EB2 India for Feb 2007 was 1431 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1444 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.

How the figures have increased? Is USCIS include EB3 to EB2 porting cases also?

[gcwait2007]

It looks like that's porting.

As per Ron, porting is never counted. EB3 application will continue to be there and if a EB-2 is recognized with in the cut off date, GC/ visa will be issued, while EB3 application will continue to be pending.

Can some one please clarify? Thanks in advance.

[TeddyKoochu]

As per Ron, porting is never counted. EB3 application will continue to be there and if a EB-2 is recognized with in the cut off date, GC/ visa will be issued, while EB3 application will continue to be pending.

Can some one please clarify? Thanks in advance.

Guys it could also be addition of local office cases.

[kd2008]

USCIS updated that statistics page. Now Table B provides data on the approval and denial for the E-12 classification (Outstanding Professor or Researcher) of the Form I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers.

I hope this helps with EB1 calculations. These numbers are only primary applicants. No dependents.

[zzz666]

It took me few days to go thru the blog....Thanks to all for your contributions.....my PD is Feb 2011 in EB2. I'll probably be a fu*king millionaire before I get the GC in Eb2 n if I become one then please forgive me if I use a couple of numbers in EB5. Just saying.

On a serious note, guys n gals....dont forget -> more than anything else, LIFE is the biggest thing...Enjoy it everyday!!

[gcwait2007]

It took me few days to go thru the blog....Thanks to all for your contributions.....my PD is Feb 2011 in EB2. I'll probably be a fu*king millionaire before I get the GC in Eb2 n if I become one then please forgive me if I use a couple of numbers in EB5. Just saying.

On a serious note, guys n gals....dont forget -> more than anything else, LIFE is the biggest thing...Enjoy it everyday!!

LOL... You have excellent optimism

[gcwait2007]

Folks,

Have you seen this. USCIS posted Approval and Denials Statistics for I-140 EB1 & EB2 category from 2005 thru 2010.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Later USCIS clarified that these data are EB1A and EB1B.

These data represent 35% to 40% and rest 60% to 65% used by EB1C.

[qesehmk]

Thanks GCWait. This is useful info.

Also check this out at Ron Gotcher's website. Are labor filings really up?

I think what he says makes sense. Filings in last few years may be up because of
-----------------A) category porting EB3->2 (which we knew and our model factors that in) and
-----------------B) job porting i.e. AC21. (which we knew but didn't factor in our model.)

So the second piece may create some upside to our model. (may be a couple of months max).

Later USCIS clarified that these data are EB1A and EB1B.

These data represent 35% to 40% and rest 60% to 65% used by EB1C.

[TeddyKoochu]

Later USCIS clarified that these data are EB1A and EB1B.

These data represent 35% to 40% and rest 60% to 65% used by EB1C.

Yes these tables represent EB1 A & B respectively. The big reason for EB1 A denials is that its a self filed petition and people fro pretty diverse fields do it. EB1 B requires a Phd or super specialization so if you have the qualification you are kind of good to go. A rough breakup out of my gut feeling is EB1-A - 15%, EB1-B - 25% and EB1-C 60%. So EB1-A really is the smallest component. Guys what are your thoughts about EB2 I140 denial percentage, IMHO as I have been saying its probably 20%.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks GCWait. This is useful info.

Also check this out at Ron Gotcher's website. Are labor filings really up?

I think what he says makes sense. Filings in last few years may be up because of
-----------------A) category porting EB3->2 (which we knew and our model factors that in) and
-----------------B) job porting i.e. AC21. (which we knew but didn't factor in our model.)

So the second piece may create some upside to our model. (may be a couple of months max).

Q a large category of folks who do it are also those who change employers and file labor and I140 again, they can capture their PD if the previous I140 was approved. I don't believe that Eb2-EB3 porting could be that large.

[qesehmk]

Teddy given that EB1-B is tougher than EB2, won't you think EB2s denial % will be less than or equal to EB1-B (i.e. 6-7%)?

Yes these tables represent EB1 A & B respectively. The big reason for EB1 A denials is that its a self filed petition and people fro pretty diverse fields do it. EB1 B requires a Phd or super specialization so if you have the qualification you are kind of good to go. A rough breakup out of my gut feeling is EB1-A - 15%, EB1-B - 25% and EB1-C 60%. So EB1-A really is the smallest component. Guys what are your thoughts about EB2 I140 denial percentage, IMHO as I have been saying its probably 20%.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy given that EB1-B is tougher than EB2, won't you think EB2s denial % will be less than or equal to EB1-B (i.e. 6-7%)?

Q here is the reason why.

- EB1-B people would apply only if they are Phd.
- EB2 is being applied by folks who have a 3 Yr only degree + experience high chance of denial.
- Folks with 3 + 2 or 3 + 1 also face educational evaluation issues.
- 4 Yr degree folks also face issues typically if their branch is no IT and they work in IT.
- Ability to Pay RFE's are more likely for EB2 as companies file more petitions, while EB1-B most companies may file 1 or 2 except for the really big ones.
- People are whole heartedly trying for PD porting and its better to try and get denied than not just try at all, all that is lost is money but all that can be gained is priceless.

[qesehmk]

That's interesting. Good logic. Thanks.

Q here is the reason why.

- EB1-B people would apply only if they are Phd.
- EB2 is being applied by folks who have a 3 Yr only degree + experience high chance of denial.
- Folks with 3 + 2 or 3 + 1 also face educational evaluation issues.
- 4 Yr degree folks also face issues typically if their branch is no IT and they work in IT.
- Ability to Pay RFE's are more likely for EB2 as companies file more petitions, while EB1-B most companies may file 1 or 2 except for the really big ones.
- People are whole heartedly trying for PD porting and its better to try and get denied than not just try at all, all that is lost is money but all that can be gained is priceless.

[veni001]

Thanks GCWait. This is useful info.

Also check this out at Ron Gotcher's website. Are labor filings really up?

I think what he says makes sense. Filings in last few years may be up because of
-----------------A) category porting EB3->2 (which we knew and our model factors that in) and
-----------------B) job porting i.e. AC21. (which we knew but didn't factor in our model.)

So the second piece may create some upside to our model. (may be a couple of months max).

This guy is trying to draw some business, remember he doesn't speak facts all the time.

[veni001]

This may be old post Court case against Infosys accuses it of visa and tax fraud

This could impact not only H1B/L1B but also EB1C filings, going forward.

[qesehmk]

You r right. He is generally quite inflammatory. But in this case he could actually be right.

This guy is trying to draw some business, remember he doesn't speak facts all the time.

[gcwait2007]

What happened to last year's Family Based Visa left overs? Have they not been carried to EB category in this year?

[gcwait2007]

Ron has replied to one of the queries as follows-

Re: EB2 will not become current for India/China I have to disagree with that assessment. The number of "spill over" visas from Worldwide EB2 last year was almost equal to the known EB2 India backlog. The reason that the backlog did not go down was because more than 15,000 India EB3 cases with earlier priority dates were upgraded to EB2. That is going to come to an end in the not too distant future. When it does, India EB2 will start moving forward very quickly.