EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Monica12]

How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?

ssvp, what I would do is make an appointment for the medicals and cancel it later if dates dont get current. There is no charge if you cancel the appointment but you dont want to miss an appointment also if dates become current. So, nevertheless make the appointment.

[qesehmk]

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

Nishant, I have been going over this statement that Murthy put on their forum again and again:

"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

For the life of me I cannot understand what they are implying. By new filings, do they mean PWMB who will be current in Oct or people who filed in April-Sep,2011 or both. What's your take on this statement?

[qblogfan]

agree, I think they may not approve all the cases that are current.

It's possible that they will approve only several hunderds next month.

I don't think he will approve 6000 next month.

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

[Monica12]

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

Q, yes,I agree... that's what I thought... the statement just doesnt make sense, considering it was made clear in Oct vb that the intention is to generate new demand. Thanks for clarifying.

[qesehmk]

Whoever made that statement (murthy?) basically recycled the oft repeated statement from DoS website rather than paying attention to the more relevant CO
statement in latest VB.

Lets cross fingers for people post Jul 2007.

Q, yes,I agree... that's what I thought... the statement just doesnt make sense, considering it was made clear in Oct vb that the intention is to generate new demand. Thanks for clarifying.

[Dojoapril]

Looks like it all boils down to the "Luck factor" for people who are current in October. Good Karma = GC.

[10102007]

Looks like it all boils down to the "Luck factor" for people who are current in October. Good Karma = GC.

Perhaps you should spell it Good Carma=GC.

[GhostWriter]

First post here. I have been following this great forum for a few months now, my PD is far away (EB2-I, end of 2009) so was watching from the pavilion. Thanks to Q and all other gurus here for the great analysis. I signed up today to view Spec's latest miracle. Also have a few questions
- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.
- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).

[venkat]

Hello Guys,

I've generally been a silent observer of this forum. Here is something i heard from my friend who upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and became current last week. His EB3 priority date was May 2006.

It seems his attorney got an email from USCIS as soon as his EB2 140 got approved. The email said that this year's visa numbers got over and that he may be approved only next month (i.e October) because that is when next year's quota kicks in.

So it looks like officially the current year's visa numbers are finally over.

Hope this info helps our Gurus.

[veni001]

I saw this link on Trackitt to the actual communication by the Visa Office to USCIS http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf


It is always good to see the actual communication, rather than an interpretation of it by a third party.

Hello Guys,

I've generally been a silent observer of this forum. Here is something i heard from my friend who upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and became current last week. His EB3 priority date was May 2006.

It seems his attorney got an email from USCIS as soon as his EB2 140 got approved. The email said that this year's visa numbers got over and that he may be approved only next month (i.e October) because that is when next year's quota kicks in.

So it looks like officially the current year's visa numbers are finally over.

Hope this info helps our Gurus.

venkat,
Welcome, please see Spec's post above with link to the DOS document referring FY2011 quota exhaust.

[gc_usa]

What do you think about PD of Jan8 2008 ? Should I change job right now or wait since I am so close ?

I am getting new offer and new company will file for GC in EB2 after 1 year. They said they are ok and they do in EB2. salary is 20% more than what I make. Do you think I will get a chance to file for I 485 this year can switch after 6 months ?

[gc_usa]

venkat,
Welcome, please see Spec's post above with link to the DOS document referring FY2011 quota exhaust.

If they ran out of visas in a middle of Sep month does that mean EB1 and EB2 row's demand from Sep will force DOS to retro date for EB2 IC ?

What are chances of PD with Jan 2008 to file I 485 before Dec ?

[PlainSpeak]

How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?

I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

[gc_usa]

I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

I was thinking to do medical ahead of time but I don't think it will make a huge difference if I do now or later when date is current. So many people got medical done when July 2007 gate was open. We don't have any chance for gate opening again and we get close to 3 week before date becoming current. so that should be fine.

[qesehmk]

gc_usa, assuming that your company is able to retain your PD; your time to GC won't be affected too much .... may be GC through new company will be delayed by 6-12 months max (assuming they are efficient).

When people generally don't take the route of job switch, they should do it out of the risk of new application, rather than the delay in time-to-get-GC. For Jan 2008, I think in 2012 you have a good chance of at least filing 485. 50% of actually getting the GC in hand.

What do you think about PD of Jan8 2008 ? Should I change job right now or wait since I am so close ?

I am getting new offer and new company will file for GC in EB2 after 1 year. They said they are ok and they do in EB2. salary is 20% more than what I make. Do you think I will get a chance to file for I 485 this year can switch after 6 months ?

I would agree PlainSpeak. You are right here.

I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

If they ran out of visas in a middle of Sep month does that mean EB1 and EB2 row's demand from Sep will force DOS to retro date for EB2 IC ?

What are chances of PD with Jan 2008 to file I 485 before Dec ?

EB2IC dates haven't moved ahead enough to warrant a retro yet. For the secondquestion please see the answer to Gc_USA.

[gc_usa]

gc_usa, assuming that your company is able to retain your PD; your time to GC won't be affected too much .... may be GC through new company will be delayed by 6-12 months max (assuming they are efficient).

When people generally don't take the route of job switch, they should do it out of the risk of new application, rather than the delay in time-to-get-GC. For Jan 2008, I think in 2012 you have a good chance of at least filing 485. 50% of actually getting the GC in hand.



I would agree PlainSpeak. You are right here.



EB2IC dates haven't moved ahead enough to warrant a retro yet. For the secondquestion please see the answer to Gc_USA.

Thanks Q

When you say 2012 means before Sep 2012 or Dec 2012 ? I mean I would get a chance in upcoming bulletin which are going to generate demand ? or Deep later in 2012 like Nov 2012 where DOS will try to generate demand for 2013 ?

[qesehmk]

I mean Sep 2012. Regarding timing of intake, I have always maintained that they must generate demand before end of Q2. i.e mar 2012. With the October bullletin CO showed an appetite to take in fresh demand even earlier. Nobody knows exactly when they will do it. But in next 1-5 months for sure they must take all the cases they think will be able to process in 2012.

My "judgement" is that Jan 2008 should scrape through.

Thanks Q

When you say 2012 means before Sep 2012 or Dec 2012 ? I mean I would get a chance in upcoming bulletin which are going to generate demand ? or Deep later in 2012 like Nov 2012 where DOS will try to generate demand for 2013 ?

[rahil1]

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

My priority is may 2 2007. I will be current in October.I applied 485 in 2007. I was asking about my chances of getting GC in next month or so..

[qesehmk]

Sorry - I misread. For a normal case without any "locha" it should be a matter of days and weeks.

My priority is may 2 2007. I will be current in October.I applied 485 in 2007. I was asking about my chances of getting GC in next month or so..

[rahil1]

Sorry - I misread. For a normal case without any "locha" it should be a matter of days and weeks.

thanks you Q. Hope you are right...

[iamdeb]

News from Murthy

1. Visa Number Limit Reached for FY11

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) issued an announcement dated September 15, 2011 stating that all employment-based (EB) visa numbers for fiscal year 2011 (FY11) have been utilized. This means that no more immigrant visa numbers are available in the EB categories until October 1, 2011. This does not prevent qualified applicants from filing for adjustment of status to permanent residence under the cutoff dates in the September 2011 Visa Bulletin, valid through the end of September.

No Cause for Alarm: Reaching Annual Limits is the Goal

The DOS announcement is not a cause for alarm. It simply means that the EB immigrant visa numbers for FY11 have been depleted. FY11 ends on September 30, 2011. It is normal for the numbers to run out prior to the end of the fiscal year. It is the goal of the DOS to establish cutoff dates in a manner that will minimize any waste of immigrant visa numbers by having a surplus at the end of the year. (Unused immigrant visa numbers do not automatically roll over to the next fiscal year.) This goal has to be balanced against certain limitations on the immigrant numbers that can be used during the first three quarters of the fiscal year and the goal of having numbers available throughout that twelve-month period.

Lack of Available EB Numbers Impacts GC Approvals

With no available EB immigrant visa numbers, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will be unable to approve additional EB I-485 ("green card") cases in September 2011. In order to issue an approval of an I-485, there must be a visa number available. These immigrant visa numbers are issued by the DOS, and the September 15th, 2011 announcement makes it clear that no more visa numbers are available for FY11. Some individuals still may receive approval notices for their I-485s after September 15th, 2011, as there is a slight delay between the approval and transmission of the notice.

I-485 Adjustment Applications may be Filed

The lack of visa numbers does not have an impact on the eligibility to file I-485 cases under the September 2011 Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. The cutoff dates in the Visa Bulletin remain valid until the end of the month, permitting the filing of I-485s, even if the actual visa numbers are not immediately available.

FY2012 Begins October 1, 2011

New EB visa numbers will become available on October 1, 2011. This is reflected in the October Visa Bulletin, discussed in our September 16, 2011 NewsBrief, October 2011 Visa Bulletin: Forward Movement for EB2 India / China. The USCIS can continue to process I-485 applications and request visa numbers from the DOS. Those requests will simply be held by the DOS in a pending capacity. Visa numbers will be issued for these cases as visa numbers become available beginning Monday, October 3, 2011 - the first business day of the month. We would expect that approval notices will start to arrive a few days later. MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers will be updated on important matters related to the visa bulletin and availability of visa numbers.

[evoori]

Need little help. People here are saying that DOS did this pipeline building last year for FB too. I am trying to find how long they took to build this pipeline. I compiled the data for Oct 2007 to May 2011. Looking into this what are your thoughts on how long will DOS take to build the pipeline ?

[kolugc]

What I understand so far is, most likely by end of

2012 Sept - PD dates will move through Jan - Mar 2008
2012 Oct - PD dates will move through Feb - May 2008 (if they start taking in fresh cases to build the pipeline as they did this Oct 2011)

Please correct me If I am wrong, this is assuming if everything goes normal....

[evoori]

I think it should be 2008..

What I understand so far is, most likely by end of

2012 Sept - PD dates will move through Jan - Mar 2012
2012 Oct - PD dates will move through Feb - May 2012 (if they start taking in fresh cases to build the pipeline as they did this Oct 2011)

Please correct me If I am wrong, this is assuming if everything goes normal....

[nishant2200]

This I also had pointed earlier.

My feeling is they can't hold the line for a very long time because they have at least 8k pre-adudicated apps already, n these folks will be tormenting CIS for status.

Next two VB should have movement it seems exactly like FB. How much no one can read their mind, but 3 months at a time is a gut feeling.

End of 2007 is really needed I feel.

Frustratingly on iphone keyboard I have generated this table of FB intake approach last year, so that we may see inspiration to EB which looks like similar this year.

VB--F2A--F2B

Sep 2010--01Jan10--01Jan05
Oct 2010--01Apr10--01Apr05
Nov 2010--01Jun10--01Jun05
Dec 2010--01Aug10--01Jun05
Jan 2011--01Jan08--15Apr03
Sep 2011--01Dec08--01Jul03
Oct 2011--08Jan09--15Jul03

So it does look like DOS is familiar with the game of taking intake in Q1 and then retro in Q2.

Need little help. People here are saying that DOS did this pipeline building last year for FB too. I am trying to find how long they took to build this pipeline. I compiled the data for Oct 2007 to May 2011. Looking into this what are your thoughts on how long will DOS take to build the pipeline ?