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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #7601
    Qblogfan :Thank you. Do you know how many cases from Aug 2007-Aug 2008? I ask coz my PD is Aug 2008.

  2. #7602
    Yoda
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    What was the denial rate we were looking at for PERM when calculating the data?
    I was just running through the MDB for 2011 from FLD DataCenter and found that 9000 were in denied state of the total 60K. thats around 15%.
    Last edited by srimurthy; 09-22-2011 at 12:57 PM.

  3. #7603
    Thanks for laying it out, appreciate your efforts and time well spent on this.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

  4. #7604
    I don't know the exact number and I don't want to mislead you.

    My personal opinion is around 40k. Again, I don't have accurate information, just for your reference.


    Quote Originally Posted by RMS_V13 View Post
    Qblogfan :Thank you. Do you know how many cases from Aug 2007-Aug 2008? I ask coz my PD is Aug 2008.

  5. #7605
    Your charts are so impressive! I admire your math ability and analysis!

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

  6. #7606
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.
    Too good as always!

  7. #7607
    Sensei familyguy's Avatar
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    Very impressive..

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

  8. #7608
    When is the report of how much visa numbers were used for what countries per each EB/FB category in FY2011 expected?

  9. #7609

    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.
    Excellent work Spec!!

  10. #7610
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by visagcinfo View Post
    When is the report of how much visa numbers were used for what countries per each EB/FB category in FY2011 expected?
    visagcinfo,

    If memory serves me correctly, it is published in January.

    Edit:- Just checked and last year's report came out on January 21, 2011.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  11. #7611
    Spec

    you tables are fantastic and easy to follow. The color coding very easily leads people to understand the best case worst case and average case scenario. Props to you!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  12. #7612
    Sophomore sha_kus's Avatar
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    Thumbs up

    Awesome Spec ... very good insight.... bravo..


    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

  13. #7613
    When do you guys think EB2 India Dec 2008 PD will be current?. Thanks

  14. #7614
    Quote Originally Posted by nostwal View Post
    When do you guys think EB2 India Dec 2008 PD will be current?. Thanks
    Looks like 2013.

  15. #7615
    Thanks SSVP22. Man this is crazy how much time we got to wait for the Green Card. Hope some reform gets passed in near future.

  16. #7616
    Thanks Spec.
    I guess that is when we know for sure/see it in writing if all the visa numbers were used or any wasted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    visagcinfo,

    If memory serves me correctly, it is published in January.

    Edit:- Just checked and last year's report came out on January 21, 2011.

  17. #7617

    will I get GC in next month or so?

    I am going to be current October but since the spill over is not going start till may, is there a chance of me getting GC before that?

  18. #7618
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.
    Thanks Spec, very helpful

  19. #7619
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.
    mehhh... they are ok... not bad... you can do better spec...

    (wink)i am trying to down play so that spec will come up with same excellent performance every time, this is how our client treats my offshore team...ssshhhh...keep it a secret...(wink)(wink)

    hmm..hmm... yes, please keep them coming...we will see...
    Last edited by soggadu; 09-22-2011 at 03:42 PM.

  20. #7620
    Soggadu, you are funny as hell Taking the pangaa with the Great the Spec ( sorry, couldn't resist...I'm a big fan of ZNMD)

    Rahil, I'm in the same boat as you. If you go back a few pages, there's a post by Teddy which explains there might be 250 or 750 visas available in Oct ( depending on if they go by monthly quota or Quarterly quota for India). So, a few lucky ones will get approvals in Oct and Nov ( if dates don't retrogress in Nov).
    Now, the million dollar question is if we will see any spillover and how early that will happen (q1 /q2 or we have to wait till q3/q4)?
    Last edited by Monica12; 09-22-2011 at 04:30 PM.

  21. #7621

    so the possibility is quite bleak

    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    Soggadu, you are funny as hell
    Rahil, I'm in the same boat as you. If you back a few pages, there's a post by Teddy which explains there might be 250 or 750 visas availabel in Oct ( depending on if they go by monthly quota or Quarterly quota for India). So, a few lucky ones will get approvals.
    Now, the million dollar question is if we will see any spillover and how early that will happen?
    For me at least I will be able to file 485 for my wife

  22. #7622
    Quote Originally Posted by rahil1 View Post
    For me at least I will be able to file 485 for my wife
    Actually, we really don't know what is going to happen. In the next few VB, they might move 2-3 months each and then retrogress OR make a big movement in Nov and then retrogress OR stop in Nov, then move in Dec, stop in Jan, move in Feb Or they might stop and retrogress in Nov (not likely in my opinion) ....So, lots of possibilities here. Depending on movement of dates, people will get approvals.
    They surprised us in Oct..so they might surprise us again.

  23. #7623
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    Actually, we really don't know what is going to happen. In the next few VB, they might move 2-3 months each and then retrogress OR make a big movement in Nov and then retrogress OR stop in Nov, then move in Dec, stop in Jan, move in Feb Or they might stop and retrogress in Nov (not likely in my opinion) ....So, lots of possibilities here. Depending on movement of dates, people will get approvals.
    They surprised us in Oct..so they might surprise us again.
    Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

    The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
    1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
    2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
    3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

    All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".
    Last edited by nishant2200; 09-22-2011 at 04:26 PM.

  24. #7624
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

    The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
    1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
    2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
    3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

    All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".
    How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?

  25. #7625
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

    The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
    1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
    2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
    3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

    All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".
    Nishant, I have been going over this statement that Murthy put on their forum again and again:

    "Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

    For the life of me I cannot understand what they are implying. By new filings, do they mean PWMB who will be current in Oct or people who filed in April-Sep,2011 or both. From this statement, it means that the date movement will depend on the visa supply, which we know is not much. What's your take on this statement?
    Last edited by Monica12; 09-22-2011 at 04:44 PM.

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