EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[cool_mj007]

Hi gurus, I did some data aggregation and have a few questions.

Background info:
I looked at the total EB category visas issued by country of origin for past 4 years and the EB2 IC sofad share has gone up lately. the 2011 numbers are estimates based on the calculations you guys have done in the past. See table below (chart attached).

FY Total EB visas EB2 - IC SOFAD
2007 153,667 8.5%
2008 161,506 13.5%
2009 136,769 9.6%
2010 148,377 17.8%
2011 (est.) 140,000 20%

Data source: tables for past 4 years from USCIS site http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10...leV-PartII.pdf

Questions:
1. First of all the total number of EB visas for past years never adds up to 140K per year, why is that? Is there something I am missing or misinterpreting from the reports?

2. If the total availability varies year over year then do we have a way of accounting/adjusting for that in the calculations you guys do? What are the factors that affect the variability?

3. How do you see those numbers change for 2012. Any estimates on what will be the total availability universe?

EB2_IC_SOFAD_percentage.png

[bieber]

Nishanth

Eventhough I still think there will be a hard stop at Aug15(17), 2007, there are 2 CO statements from which I'm drawing my conclusion,

according to other forum (can't remember the name) CO wants to talk with CIS regarding 140 numbers once the dates reach Aug15,2007

In october bulletin, it's clearly mentioned this move is to build the pipeline, which makes complete sense because demand data already shows bigger number than IC quota, so they want to be ready for SO season (which I thought would be doubtful before the bulletin is released),

the important point is, it takes few months before receipts turn into Demand, will CO consider that and decide the movement based on receipts or he will just move the dates till he see actual demand?

[nishant2200]

Bieber, thanks for clarifying. I agree with your line of thought also having a weight. Especially since we saw the official communication from VO to CIS about visa numbers run out of FY 2011 and the reason that the sudden demand shown by USCIS in early August in words written, I have even greater faith in the CO communication portrayed to the chinese friends at NIU and mittbbs.

Also the experts here said that if really there is 12k sudden demand, visas left are not enough to satisfy this fully, as well as keep India EB2I/C dates at 15th April 2007. And presto, we did see them run out of visa numbers two weeks early. It seems to me that CO did honor the EB2I/C dates as much as they could and his intent was to keep them there, to progress further to gauge demand in next FY.

The 140 numbers idea, I think CO must have already embarked upon it by now, if he is going to use that. According to Ron Gotcher, USCIS does not have 140s properly grouped by country, category, PD etc to have a meaningful answer to CO's query. I am doubting that statement by Ron, he is under-estimating USCIS at least partially.

So now, if he had to do this once dates reached August 15th, 2007, why he didn't reach there in the Oct bulletin itself.
a. does he/USCIS need more time to come up with this answer
b. does he consider July 15th 2007 as the real date till which most applications would have been received, and August 15th 2007 is more like new demand, since he thinks majority of people could not apply and are PWMB.
c. ?

Either way, I think the intent does seem to be to generate the demand early on, and not wait till SO season.

Nishanth

Eventhough I still think there will be a hard stop at Aug15(17), 2007, there are 2 CO statements from which I'm drawing my conclusion,

according to other forum (can't remember the name) CO wants to talk with CIS regarding 140 numbers once the dates reach Aug15,2007

In october bulletin, it's clearly mentioned this move is to build the pipeline, which makes complete sense because demand data already shows bigger number than IC quota, so they want to be ready for SO season (which I thought would be doubtful before the bulletin is released),

the important point is, it takes few months before receipts turn into Demand, will CO consider that and decide the movement based on receipts or he will just move the dates till he see actual demand?

[soggadu]

All you need is proof that vaccination is given to you. Even if you have it from India, It would work. I am talking from personal experience. I just got my form I 693 done.

I have one question for the Guru's or anyone else who may have noticed this:

I have varicella history. MY doctor asked me the age when I had it. In the form he put VH but also a date in the date received column as (01/01/1988, 1988 is birth year plus the age I had varicella). When I asked the assistant she said the system automatically generate this date. Did anyone else also had the same experience. I thought they just need to put VH.

ur DOB is really 1988? wow u must be the youngest of the lot...

[qesehmk]

I wouldn't be surprised to find people w PD 1990s and also people born in 1990s entering GC Q now!! Give it a few more years and with USCIS' grace there will be many such examples - unfortunately.

ur DOB is really 1988? wow u must be the youngest of the lot...

[Spectator]

Hi gurus, I did some data aggregation and have a few questions.

Background info:
I looked at the total EB category visas issued by country of origin for past 4 years and the EB2 IC sofad share has gone up lately. the 2011 numbers are estimates based on the calculations you guys have done in the past. See table below (chart attached).

FY Total EB visas EB2 - IC SOFAD
2007 153,667 8.5%
2008 161,506 13.5%
2009 136,769 9.6%
2010 148,377 17.8%
2011 (est.) 140,000 20%

Data source: tables for past 4 years from USCIS site http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10...leV-PartII.pdf

Questions:
1. First of all the total number of EB visas for past years never adds up to 140K per year, why is that? Is there something I am missing or misinterpreting from the reports?

2. If the total availability varies year over year then do we have a way of accounting/adjusting for that in the calculations you guys do? What are the factors that affect the variability?

3. How do you see those numbers change for 2012. Any estimates on what will be the total availability universe?

cool_mj007,

I see slightly different totals. You need to look at Table V, Part 3 for the full totals.

FY ------------ Total ---- EB
------------ EB visas --- Alloc.
2007 -------- 154,460 -- 147,148
(in addition there were 7,312 recaptured visas used for a total visa allocation of 154,460)
2008 -------- 162,949 -- 162,704
2009 -------- 140,987 -- 140,000
2010 -------- 150,262 -- 150,657
2011 (est.) - 140,000 -- 140,000

The yearly allocation of EB visas depends on whether there was under-use of FB visas the previous FY.

The Visa Office have already published some information on the allocation for FY2012. It appears it will be 140,000. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf That makes sense, since FB should never under-use visas as every Category is retrogressed for all Countries.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q,

That number represents cases that may not have been updated over several FY - however long Trackitt has been running.

Over 100 have a PD that has never been Current, so are unlikely to be updated until the PD becomes Current. Others with older PD are just people who created a profile and then lost interest in Trackitt. It is surprising how many active members post about their approval, yet don't update their profile with the approval.

The ratio of Trackitt approvals to real approvals generally takes the un-updated cases into account.

There are around 4k total approvals of EB2-I in total on Trackitt. The number really only represents the 20% ish run rate for cases that are never updated.

Yes, there may be more with PDs earlier than the current Cut off Date that will be updated with an approval in the future that haven't been updated in the last 6 months or year, but if they haven't bothered to date, the number will probably be low.

Some may well be denied cases or people have just given up and gone back, but there is no way to know so, or how many they represent.

That is how I see it - it would be interesting to hear TK's view.

Based on historical data normally 10-15% used to be the norm for cases that are not updated. Now with greater clarity it’s not surprising that this number has risen. However there are ~ 425 cases un-updated that were last entered / updated since Jul 2011. I do however believe that most of these cases belong to people who did not update them after the excitement and euphoria one would have after getting GC. However there would definitely be some who are still waiting, though there are very few complaints on all forums about people complaining definitely some are there. I would have a offset of 1000 to represent the people who are current but not approved for a variety of reasons. Some case may even belong to PWMB's.

[Spectator]

Based on historical data normally 10-15% used to be the norm for cases that are not updated. Now with greater clarity it’s not surprising that this number has risen. However there are ~ 425 cases un-updated that were last entered / updated since Jul 2011. I do however believe that most of these cases belong to people who did not update them after the excitement and euphoria one would have after getting GC. However there would definitely be some who are still waiting, though there are very few complaints on all forums about people complaining definitely some are there. I would have a offset of 1000 to represent the people who are current but not approved for a variety of reasons. Some case may even belong to PWMB's.

Thanks Teddy.

[nishant2200]

yeah, if he does 3 month move in next VB, if he does I mean, I really feel afraid we all are sweeping away in this new hope, then it would stop at 15th Oct 2007, meaning we both would be looking at Dec VB in November for our chance.

I just read the last line and was thinking yaaa why not..... :-):-)

on a serious note, why don't we follow what hopeful bhai have suggested and go through primary doc..... Would be free right...

hey N.... amour pd is in n for NOVEMBER right?..

[Monica12]

Guys, I have been wondering how USCIS will deal with all the SR's, info pass etc once October starts...considering visas will not be available if they go by monthly quota for IC.
Is there a chance of an early quarterly spillover ?
Any thoughts?

[qesehmk]

Great discussion on vaccinations.

Moved it to its own thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3-Vaccinations

[Kanmani]

Nishant & Spec


Pls through the following link to find if it helps in splitting primary + dependants

Here is a link http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/data/DSLPR10c.shtm which details the FB & EB immigrant visas

[veni001]

Nishant & Spec


Pls through the following link to find if it helps in splitting primary + dependants

Here is a link http:/ /www. dhs.gov/files/statistics/data/DSLPR10c.shtm which details the FB & EB immigrant visas

Kanmani,
We have this info posted in FACTS AND DATA section under i140 to 485 Ratios(post#2)

[veni001]

Thanks Veni

I & Nishant were looking for Primary + Dependents data for India and China alone

Do we have one ?

Kanmani,
Nope, but IMHO having that data is not going to change (I&C) ratios much!

[cool_mj007]

@Spectator, thanks for clarifying, I am amazed by the deep knowledge you guys have over the issue.
At this point I think you guys have a better understanding of the GC process/numbers than USCIS folks
Thanks again

cool_mj007,

I see slightly different totals. You need to look at Table V, Part 3 for the full totals.

FY ------------ Total ---- EB
------------ EB visas --- Alloc.
2007 -------- 154,460 -- 147,148
(in addition there were 7,312 recaptured visas used for a total visa allocation of 154,460)
2008 -------- 162,949 -- 162,704
2009 -------- 140,987 -- 140,000
2010 -------- 150,262 -- 150,657
2011 (est.) - 140,000 -- 140,000

The yearly allocation of EB visas depends on whether there was under-use of FB visas the previous FY.

The Visa Office have already published some information on the allocation for FY2012. It appears it will be 140,000. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf That makes sense, since FB should never under-use visas as every Category is retrogressed for all Countries.

[nishant2200]

Kanmani,
Nope, but IMHO having that data is not going to change (I&C) ratios much!

On the whole I do think that the C folks do tend to have kids and especially older ones those born outside of USA more than India. I am simply basing this off the fact that most C folks start their immigration journey via MS or PhD studies in USA, and most of these by experience I have seen in my university as well as discussed with my friends in other universities, already come in with dependents including spouse and a child. They mostly come on Research or Teaching assistantships and the stipend is used to sustain the family in USA. I do not know reasons behind this difference vs I folks. So Kanmani you do have a point, although as Veni said, might not affect the overall ratio a whole lot, because the ratio is combined, as well as the I contributes to the EB2 immigrant universe much more than C in terms of quantity.

[nishant2200]

I wouldn't be surprised to find people w PD 1990s and also people born in 1990s entering GC Q now!! Give it a few more years and with USCIS' grace there will be many such examples - unfortunately.

This is recently joking told my relatives in bay area, who were happy about my promotions etc, I told them, due to GC wait, I will one day even be a Director or Vice President of engineering here, don't be amazed, it's not a huge billions of dollars company. This is mostly due to nature of wait, and time pass to overcome my boredom. My heart will still be just dreaming of SOFAD & freedom. We need to print one of those shirts which have 'Got Milk?' written on them, and instead write 'Got SOFAD?'

[Monica12]

This is recently joking told my relatives in bay area, who were happy about my promotions etc, I told them, due to GC wait, I will one day even be a Director or Vice President of engineering here, don't be amazed, it's not a huge billions of dollars company. This is mostly due to nature of wait, and time pass to overcome my boredom. My heart will still be just dreaming of SOFAD & freedom. We need to print one of those shirts which have 'Got Milk?' written on them, and instead write 'Got SOFAD?'

Lol! Good one dude !
In my dreams these days..I see words " green card, USCIS, deportation, I-485, spill over, fiscal year.....the list goes on and on". When I meet friends instead of saying..Hi! How are you?..I end up asking " what's your PD? "

[RMS_V13]

Ditto on the PD
Also, exactly what I think..the PD has moved by 12-15 months every FY. Why would it be different this year? If any it should be a tad bit quicker.

Intellectually I get the math that the gurus have done but historically like you said the PD has moved 12-15 months in one FY. I'm hoping that it follows the same trend coz my PD is Aug 2008. Really conflicted here

[benjiding]

My H1 VISA expires in March 2012, my I-94 shows Oct 2012. I was stuck in India for stamping for 3 months , so I guess when I entered they gave I94 till Oct 2012. My question is when should I apply for extension? Before March 2012 probably?
My EB2 priority date is May 2008.

[grnwtg]

At the start of 2011, nobody were aware about strict rules around EB1 which led to good amount of spill over, I guess in 2010 we got some thing from Family Visa section which was not predicted at the start of 2010.
If we get some thing like above two cases we will definetly move till Mar-May'08 ( I mean getting green card), I guess uscis has used reasoning like you in sending NVC receipts till June'2008.

On the flip side if we dont get any thing like last couple of years we will be stuck at Nov-Dec 2008 when we reach August'2012, again CO might likely move dates till March '2008- April'2008 ( I mean getting only EAD) for getting Demand FY2013.

According to me there is definetly chances of moving till Feb'08 to April '08 for a month when we get Visa Bulletin for October'2012.

Ditto on the PD
Also, exactly what I think..the PD has moved by 12-15 months every FY. Why would it be different this year? If any it should be a tad bit quicker.

[Stemcell]

On the whole I do think that the C folks do tend to have kids and especially older ones those born outside of USA more than India. I am simply basing this off the fact that most C folks start their immigration journey via MS or PhD studies in USA, and most of these by experience I have seen in my university as well as discussed with my friends in other universities, already come in with dependents including spouse and a child. They mostly come on Research or Teaching assistantships and the stipend is used to sustain the family in USA. I do not know reasons behind this difference vs I folks. So Kanmani you do have a point, although as Veni said, might not affect the overall ratio a whole lot, because the ratio is combined, as well as the I contributes to the EB2 immigrant universe much more than C in terms of quantity.

English barrier prevents them from entering the workforce right away as compared to the headstart Indian/filipino have over English.
Japs and Koreans strangely enter workforce right away more so than chinese....i cant seem to explain that...

[soggadu]

My H1 VISA expires in March 2012, my I-94 shows Oct 2012. I was stuck in India for stamping for 3 months , so I guess when I entered they gave I94 till Oct 2012. My question is when should I apply for extension? Before March 2012 probably?
My EB2 priority date is May 2008.

benji... dont wait till last minute... apply before 6 months... realistically, may 2008 may not be current this FY...

[Pedro Gonzales]

" what's your PD? "

Now there's a good Tee shirt slogan, 'What's your PD, yaar?"

[skpanda]

My H1 VISA expires in March 2012, my I-94 shows Oct 2012. I was stuck in India for stamping for 3 months , so I guess when I entered they gave I94 till Oct 2012. My question is when should I apply for extension? Before March 2012 probably?
My EB2 priority date is May 2008.

Apply anytime during Oct 2011 to March 2012 (anytime during 6 months before the expiration date on H1 Approval).

Your I94 is only for your stay in USA. So even if you did not work on H1 in April 2012, you can still stay in US based on your I94.

PS: My H1 expires in Feb 2012, I am applying for H extension in 1 week from now.