EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Bieber
Thats ok. You should be looking at 09 and prior. That's what matter because it tells you how big a story backlog was then.

sorry i made a mistake, I just looked for Chicago not Atlanta, ignore my last post,

roughly there are about 5000 cases from 2009 that are approved in Q1 Fy2010

Q, Spec,
Can we guess how many EB2/EB3 based on PW wage level?
I see 2/3 of the certified cases are in wage Level1& Level 2, 1/3 of the certified cases in wage Level3&Level 4. I see the same trend in FY 2010 data!

Also FY 2011 Q1 ROW PERM approvals are about 21.5% when compared to total FY 2010 ROW PERM approval! I am not sure if this is going to have the same trending as FY 2010!

Veni, both are good observations. I can't guess about wage level for now.

But regarding the other observation (ROW composition), that's an interesting one. The labor composition sohuldnt change unless somebody is intervening and trying to push some cases vs others. I will leave it at that.

[Spectator]

Just adding to the statistics.

This is a like for like comparison of Q1 Approvals in FY2010 & FY2011.

CERTIFIED CASES FY2010
Received – Total ---- %
FY2010 ------- 6 --- 0.05%
FY2009 -- 10,190 -- 86.37%
FY2008 --- 1,286 -- 10.90%
FY2007 ----- 299 --- 2.53%
FY2006 ------ 16 --- 0.14%
FY2005 ------- 1 --- 0.01%
Total --- 11,798 - 100.00%

CERTIFIED CASES FY2011
Received - Number ---- %
FY2011 --- 6,979 -- 38.02%
FY2010 --- 9,004 -- 49.05%
FY2009 --- 1,048 --- 5.71%
FY2008 --- 1,298 --- 7.07%
FY2007 ------ 24 --- 0.13%
FY2006 ------- 1 --- 0.01%
FY2005 ------- 1 --- 0.01%
Total --- 18,355 - 100.00%

[Spectator]

Q, Spec,
Can we guess how many EB2/EB3 based on PW wage level?
I see 2/3 of the certified cases are in wage Level1& Level 2, 1/3 of the certified cases in wage Level3&Level 4. I see the same trend in FY 2010 data!

Also FY 2011 Q1 ROW PERM approvals are about 21.5% when compared to total FY 2010 ROW PERM approval! I am not sure if this is going to have the same trending as FY 2010!

It's a good idea.

I think it has to be more than just the level (possibly level & wage?). I have seen a previous discussion where it was proposed and an EB2 person said they were Level 1 for their (SOC Code is it?).

[cool189]

It looks like the turn-around rate for PERMs is reducing. Does this mean the amount of spill over will reduce for EB2-IC in 2011?

Just adding to the statistics.

This is a like for like comparison of Q1 Approvals in FY2010 & FY2011.

CERTIFIED CASES FY2010
Received – Total ---- %
FY2010 ------- 6 --- 0.05%
FY2009 -- 10,190 -- 86.37%
FY2008 --- 1,286 -- 10.90%
FY2007 ----- 299 --- 2.53%
FY2006 ------ 16 --- 0.14%
FY2005 ------- 1 --- 0.01%
Total --- 11,798 - 100.00%

CERTIFIED CASES FY2011
Received - Number ---- %
FY2011 --- 6,979 -- 38.02%
FY2010 --- 9,004 -- 49.05%
FY2009 --- 1,048 --- 5.71%
FY2008 --- 1,298 --- 7.07%
FY2007 ------ 24 --- 0.13%
FY2006 ------- 1 --- 0.01%
FY2005 ------- 1 --- 0.01%
Total --- 18,355 - 100.00%

[Spectator]

Like for like by Country for FY2010 & FY2011 Q1 PERM Approvals.

Country -------- Q1 FY2011 ----- ---- Q1 FY2010 --
China ------- 1,004 --- 5.47% ------ 764 --- 6.48%
India ------- 9,299 -- 50.66% ---- 4,530 -- 38.40%
Mexico -------- 710 --- 3.87% ------ 563 --- 4.77%
Philippines --- 746 --- 4.06% ------ 578 --- 4.90%
ROW --------- 6,596 -- 35.94% ---- 5,363 -- 45.46%
Total ------ 18,355 - 100.00% --- 11,798 - 100.00%

ROW + M + P - 8,052 -- 43.87% ---- 6,504 -- 55.13%

[veni001]

It's a good idea.

I think it has to be more than just the level (possibly level & wage?). I have seen a previous discussion where it was proposed and an EB2 person said they were Level 1 for their (SOC Code is it?).

Spec,
Since we have only about 8K cases(including M&P) for ROW it is probably a good idea to look in depth and see how many could actually fall into EB2? I have been hearing/seeing posts that if the job is IT related then SOC job zone should be 5(off-course wage) to be eligible for EB2?

[veni001]

It looks like the turn-around rate for PERMs is reducing. Does this mean the amount of spill over will reduce for EB2-IC in 2011?

Not necessarily, SOFAD depends on EB1/EB2 ROW demand. There are more IND PERM approvals than ROW in Q1 FY 2011 when compared to Q1 FY 2010 or when compared to the entire year. PERM approval does not always mean i140 filing/approval.

[veni001]

Like for like by Country for FY2010 & FY2011 Q1 PERM Approvals.

Country -------- Q1 FY2011 ----- ---- Q1 FY2010 --
China ------- 1,004 --- 5.47% ------ 764 --- 6.48%
India ------- 9,299 -- 50.66% ---- 4,530 -- 38.40%
Mexico -------- 710 --- 3.87% ------ 563 --- 4.77%
Philippines --- 746 --- 4.06% ------ 578 --- 4.90%
ROW --------- 6,596 -- 35.94% ---- 5,363 -- 45.46%
Total ------ 18,355 - 100.00% --- 11,798 - 100.00%

ROW + M + P - 8,052 -- 43.87% ---- 6,504 -- 55.13%

Spec,
Out of which 5,361(57.6%) are in IT sector out of which 3,044 (56.7%) are in wage levels 1&2. Something we may be able to use towards Porting calculations?

[Spectator]

Spec,
Out of which 5,361(57.6%) are in IT sector out of which 3,044 (56.7%) are in wage levels 1&2. Something we may be able to use towards Porting calculations?

Veni,

I'm not sure.

For me at least, I only think we can say that there are probably quite a lot of Porting applications that have been Certified in Q1.

Beyond that, we can't say much.

For instance, we can't determine the original PD in EB3, so we don't know whether they are what I call "Effective" Porting numbers.

That is that the original PD is a date that the Cut Off Date will reach this FY. Some of the Certifications must be for PDs that will be reached in future FYs. There is still a huge advantage to getting an EB2 Certification, even if it is not Current immediately, or in this FY.

[soggadu]

Does all these calculations mean more spillover for EB2I/C this year? My pd is Oct 22 2007, i would need around 25K to get current .... keeping my fingers crossed...

[Spectator]

Does all these calculations mean more spillover for EB2I/C this year? My pd is Oct 22 2007, i would need around 25K to get current .... keeping my fingers crossed...

I hope you mean Oct 22, 2006.

SOFAD would have to be considerably higher than 25k for Cut Off Dates to move to October 22, 2007 for both India and China.

[bhayzone]

Hello folks, this is my first post here and I'm really glad to have come across this forum. The discussions on all the other forums related to immigration have degraded so much that, getting any real information is like looking for a needle in a haystack. I hope this forum remains as rich in content as it has been started with.

Now, getting to work. I did some number crunching to get a rough idea of how many EB1 and EB2 ROW PERMs were certified in 2010. I apologize if someone has already done this crunching and this seems like a double post.

Steps to arrive at the number of EB1 and EB2 ROW PERMs in 2010
Used data from the 2010 PERM certification text file (http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx).
FILTER Denied, Widthdrawn & POTENTIAL EB3 (wage < 50k)
1) Total - 81413.
2) Subtract "Denied" & "Widthdrawn" - Total remaining 70239
3) Removed all PERMS with wage < 50k - Total remaining 53997

Remaining are all EB1 or EB2.
Assuming, everyone above 100k wage => EB1
Total EB1 = 13340

All the remaining are EB2. Out of those,
EB2 ROW (non I/C) = 16402
EB2 I = 21515
EB2 C = 2744

So we potentially have 13340 EB1's and 16402 EB2 ROW PERMS approved in 2010. I know that this analysis is riddled with assumptions. But I believe that my assumptions represent the worst possible case e.g EB1 is wage>100k and EB3 is wage<50k.

The one thing that bothers me about the 2010 data is that it contains PERMS that were certified in 2009 too (maybe due to them being certified-expired).

So does anyone believe that, come July-Aug, EB2 I/C will receive huge spillover? Am I missing things here?

[soggadu]

I hope you mean Oct 22, 2006.

SOFAD would have to be considerably higher than 25k for Cut Off Dates to move to October 22, 2007 for both India and China.

Yes > 25K spillover... my pd is oct 22 2007... Still hoping i will get a chance to file EAD this year...

[kd2008]

Hello folks, this is my first post here and I'm really glad to have come across this forum. The discussions on all the other forums related to immigration have degraded so much that, getting any real information is like looking for a needle in a haystack. I hope this forum remains as rich in content as it has been started with.

Now, getting to work. I did some number crunching to get a rough idea of how many EB1 and EB2 ROW PERMs were certified in 2010. I apologize if someone has already done this crunching and this seems like a double post.

Steps to arrive at the number of EB1 and EB2 ROW PERMs in 2010
Used data from the 2010 PERM certification text file (http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx).
FILTER Denied, Widthdrawn & POTENTIAL EB3 (wage < 50k)
1) Total - 81413.
2) Subtract "Denied" & "Widthdrawn" - Total remaining 70239
3) Removed all PERMS with wage < 50k - Total remaining 53997

Remaining are all EB1 or EB2.
Assuming, everyone above 100k wage => EB1
Total EB1 = 13340

All the remaining are EB2. Out of those,
EB2 ROW (non I/C) = 16402
EB2 I = 21515
EB2 C = 2744

So we potentially have 13340 EB1's and 16402 EB2 ROW PERMS approved in 2010. I know that this analysis is riddled with assumptions. But I believe that my assumptions represent the worst possible case e.g EB1 is wage>100k and EB3 is wage<50k.

The one thing that bothers me about the 2010 data is that it contains PERMS that were certified in 2009 too (maybe due to them being certified-expired).

So does anyone believe that, come July-Aug, EB2 I/C will receive huge spillover? Am I missing things here?

Welcome to the forum.
Eb1 does not require PERM. Only Eb2 and Eb3 require it. So your calculations need to be redone. Moreover, wages have nothing to do with Eb2 or Eb3, its the job requirements - do they need MS or BS+5 etc. This info is not available in the PERM database. Wage may be a weak correlating aspect but its not a discerning aspect. Hence the folks on forum look at trackitt data, historical data etc.

[veni001]

Welcome to the forum.
Eb1 does not require PERM. Only Eb2 and Eb3 require it. So your calculations need to be redone. Moreover, wages have nothing to do with Eb2 or Eb3, its the job requirements - do they need MS or BS+5 etc. This info is not available in the PERM database. Wage may be a weak correlating aspect but its not a discerning aspect. Hence the folks on forum look at trackitt data, historical data etc.

Kd2008,
That's correct EB1 doesn't need a labor. Yes, wage some what relates to category but no all the times. As bhayzone pointed >50k does not always mean EB2 and also when eliminating cases some of the wages are shown per hr/per week/bi-weekly/by month, it's not that simple to separate EB2/EB3. May be we have to agree to a combination of salary and wage level before start sorting them out.

Also we can weed out lot of positions( Ex: carpenters/cooks/baby sitters/landscapers,trucker...etc..)

[qesehmk]

Bhayzone welcome! We try to be civil here. But sometimes it gets nasty and we argue with each other. But that's about as rowdy as it gets here!!

Comig to your contributions and questions..... I agree w KD and Veni. EB1 doesn't need PERM. And also salary or even type of job in PERM file is no guarantee of a particular classification (2/3/4). But of course we can make a guess.

Regarding your confusion about 09 cases in 10 data: that's because USCIS year is from 1 oct to 30th sep. So in 2010 USCIS year - the data shown would be 1 oct 2009 to 30 sep 2010.

Welcome to the forum.
Eb1 does not require PERM. Only Eb2 and Eb3 require it. So your calculations need to be redone. Moreover, wages have nothing to do with Eb2 or Eb3, its the job requirements - do they need MS or BS+5 etc. This info is not available in the PERM database. Wage may be a weak correlating aspect but its not a discerning aspect. Hence the folks on forum look at trackitt data, historical data etc.

[bieber]

Yes > 25K spillover... my pd is oct 22 2007... Still hoping i will get a chance to file EAD this year...

I think sofad/backlog elimination and applying for EAD is not as closely related as we think, technically CIS cannot wait until all the backlog is eliminated to receive new 485s, the battle will be they may argue (not in exact terms) 5000 pending inventory will be more than annual quota of India, and we know that will be cleared so easily with small spillover.

if CIS/DOS sees things as they are and accept spillover is possible and be proactive then they can open gates this Q4 fiscal. otherwise they will do that next year and waste quite a few visas

[bhayzone]

Kd2008,
That's correct EB1 doesn't need a labor. Yes, wage some what relates to category but no all the times. As bhayzone pointed >50k does not always mean EB2 and also when eliminating cases some of the wages are shown per hr/per week/bi-weekly/by month, it's not that simple to separate EB2/EB3. May be we have to agree to a combination of salary and wage level before start sorting them out.

Also we can weed out lot of positions( Ex: carpenters/cooks/baby sitters/landscapers,trucker...etc..)

I normalized all wages (hr/week/bi/mth) into yearly wages for analysis. I do understand that wage is not the best factor in determining EB category, but I guess it is the best that we have. I think, not many people earning 50k will be eligible for EB-2. There might be some, but I think that number will be insignificant. Similarly, the assumption that everyone earning > 100k is EB1 is the worst case scenario for EB2 I/C. This assumption assumes the least number of spillover into EB2. As we raise the wage bar for EB1, the spillover into EB2 will increase. I hope that made sense :-)

It would be great if we can arrive at an agreement on a salary/wage combination to sort out the PERM data. I would like to do some more crunching for 2006 - 2010 PERM data.

[bhayzone]

Sorry ppl, did not read the above posts about EB1 not requiring PERM carefully :-)

[veni001]

Yes > 25K spillover... my pd is oct 22 2007... Still hoping i will get a chance to file EAD this year...

The chances are very slim to none this year. Look at Q1 PERM data, kind of consistent.

Not including PWMB,porting cases you need a minimum of 32K SOFAD to clear EB2(I+C) until July 2007 based 01-05-2011 inventory update!

[cool189]

I am new to this forum. I have a question about spill over. Based on Visa Office FY 2010 Data (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html), the total EB2-IC approvals (including spill over) is 26,500. I am assuming EB2-IC approvals for FY 2011 should remain more or less same as that of FY 2010. If anyone disagrees with this assumption, can they let me know the potential reasons for the EB2-IC approvals in FY 2011 to be significantly higher or lower than that of FY 2010? Thanks in advance!

[veni001]

I normalized all wages (hr/week/bi/mth) into yearly wages for analysis.
......................

It would be great if we can arrive at an agreement on a salary/wage combination to sort out the PERM data. I would like to do some more crunching for 2006 - 2010 PERM data.

That's a good idea.

[veni001]

I am new to this forum. I have a question about spill over. Based on Visa Office FY2010 Data (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html), the total approved EB2-IC (including spill over) is 26,500. I am assuming this spill over should remain more or less same for FY 2011. Can anyone let me know what could be the potential reasons for the EB2-IC approvals in FY 2011 to be significantly higher or lower than that of FY 2010 ?

Cool189,
Please look through this forum posts(few pages back), which talks about back log cases being approved in recent years( ex: ~150K, i140 approvals in FY 2009 vs ~75k in FY2010)

[Osaka001]

Hi bhayzone,
Do you have any idea on how many EB2 ROW PERM approvals turned into I-140 approvals and filed I-485 till Sep-2010, If we can get this number, we can guess spill over from EB2 ROW for FY'11.

[cool189]

Well .. it takes lot of time to go through each post to get the reasons .. is there any summary for this thread?

Cool189,
Please look through this forum posts(few pages back), which talks about back log cases being approved in recent years( ex: ~150K, i140 approvals in FY 2009 vs ~75k in FY2010)