Page 294 of 313 FirstFirst ... 194244284292293294295296304 ... LastLast
Results 7,326 to 7,350 of 7812

Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #7326
    Sophomore sha_kus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    United States
    Posts
    26
    Gurus,

    I was thinking seriously about this and somehow i feel that CO is preparing IC for a quarterly spillover. Move IC a little bit and after 3 months spill over visas if available. Just a thought.

  2. #7327
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC.

    So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.

    p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.
    Q here are the exact figures.

    EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
    EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44

    EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
    EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18

    EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
    EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22

    EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
    EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14

    For the month of Aug both EB2 ROW and EB1 have clocked significantly higher. EB2 ROW seems to be going well even in September its slightly above last year. EB1 in September seems to be dull. Another point to note is that EB2 India is just 11, normally they would white wash during a regular spillover season, out of these 4 are PWMB cases. So looks like the agencies have done a good job in cleaning up cases that were actually current by the Aug and September bulletins. Very few people are complaining about not being approved when current. So I feel Oct bulletins movement is out of 2012's cap, 2011 is done, maybe the excess usage in Aug was the reason for no movement in September but all this coincides with the high rate of I140 approvals.
    Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 09-15-2011 at 02:28 PM. Reason: Corrected 2010 to 2012

  3. #7328
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    Yes, I completely agree...future VBs should show more movement. It just doesn't make sense that they want to build demand ( as stated in Oct VB) when they will get only 2-2.5 K new cases in Oct. That no. is just not enough to build additional pipeline...
    Yes they have been making this announcement atleast since 2 years but this year it has come really early.

  4. #7329
    Hi Teddy,

    I personally know two cases which became current in June and have still not received there GC in EB2. They have not received any RFE and both have an approved I140. So seems like they have slowed down on EB2 and probably they are out of numbers ad may assign a visa number to them in October since visas have exhausted.

    Also when you say OCT visa bulletin is out of 2010's does that mean they can use the visas from the prior years. Please clarify

    Thanks

    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Q here are the exact figures.

    EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
    EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44

    EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
    EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18

    EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
    EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22

    EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
    EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14

    For the month of Aug both EB2 ROW and EB1 have clocked significantly higher. EB2 ROW seems to be going well even in September its slightly above last year. EB1 in September seems to be dull. Another point to note is that EB2 India is just 11, normally they would white wash during a regular spillover season, out of these 4 are PWMB cases. So looks like the agencies have done a good job in cleaning up cases that were actually current by the Aug and September bulletins. Very few people are complaining about not being approved when current. So I feel Oct bulletins movement is out of 2010's cap, 2011 is done, maybe the excess usage in Aug was the reason for no movement in September but all this coincides with the high rate of I140 approvals.

  5. #7330
    Teddy

    So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.

    Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.

    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Q here are the exact figures.

    EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
    EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44

    EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
    EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18

    EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
    EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22

    EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
    EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14

    For the month of Aug both EB2 ROW and EB1 have clocked significantly higher. EB2 ROW seems to be going well even in September its slightly above last year. EB1 in September seems to be dull. Another point to note is that EB2 India is just 11, normally they would white wash during a regular spillover season, out of these 4 are PWMB cases. So looks like the agencies have done a good job in cleaning up cases that were actually current by the Aug and September bulletins. Very few people are complaining about not being approved when current. So I feel Oct bulletins movement is out of 2010's cap, 2011 is done, maybe the excess usage in Aug was the reason for no movement in September but all this coincides with the high rate of I140 approvals.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  6. #7331
    Sensei familyguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    84
    Guys, if DOS move's the dates slowly, over a period of time to collect new applications then what does visa bulletin mean for people who have already applied 485? Don't you think VB will give people an impression that visas are available? Poor Janata will start contacting USCIS/Congressmen thinking that their dates are current and will be eager to find out status....

    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Yes they have been making this announcement atleast since 2 years but this year it has come really early.

  7. #7332
    Guru veni001's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    South-West
    Posts
    1,053
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy

    So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.

    Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.
    Q,
    Based on FACTS AND DATA and EB-485 inventories since 2010, i don't think it will be any closer to 6k number!

    Not having updates on trackitt does not always mean less approvals or application abandoned!.
    Last edited by veni001; 09-15-2011 at 01:36 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  8. #7333
    Veni
    Then what explains why these people are so close to getting GC, had at some point of time bothered to create a trackitt account but then gave up tracking these cases since Jan 2011.
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Q,
    Based on FACTS AND DATA and EB-485 inventories since 2010, i don't think it will be any closer to 6k number!

    Not having updates on trackitt does not always mean less approvals or application abandoned!.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  9. #7334
    Family Guy

    I was thinking abt this concept yesterday itself. Atleast 75% are not familiar with the words retrogression, demand pipeline , pre-adjudication etc.
    I had a thought of one year movement in the next bulletin, but I am afraid to speak out as our friends with 07 PDs are so anxious. With this concept in mind , I am eagerly searching for FB intake numbers in 2010 , to find how far they can stretch their pipeline .

  10. #7335
    Sensei familyguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    84
    I agree with you - I think moment will be big for only one month followed by retrogression...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Family Guy

    I was thinking abt this concept yesterday itself. Atleast 75% are not familiar with the words retrogression, demand pipeline , pre-adjudication etc.
    I had a thought of one year movement in the next bulletin, but I am afraid to speak out as our friends with 07 PDs are so anxious. With this concept in mind , I am eagerly searching for FB intake numbers in 2010 , to find how far they can stretch their pipeline .

  11. #7336

    EB5 usage

    Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
    FY11 YTD* 3,706
    FY10 1,885
    FY09 4,218
    FY08 1,360
    FY07 806
    FY06 744
    FY05 158
    *Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.

    From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

    Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.

  12. #7337
    Quote Originally Posted by familyguy View Post
    Guys, if DOS move's the dates slowly, over a period of time to collect new applications then what does visa bulletin mean for people who have already applied 485? Don't you think VB will give people an impression that visas are available? Poor Janata will start contacting USCIS/Congressmen thinking that their dates are current and will be eager to find out status....
    Family guy, I have been wondering the same thing..Is the movement in Oct VB (and hopefully the next few VBs), to just create new demand or if Q's theory is correct and there will actually be visas available for people who have already filed?

    The rate of approvals in first 2 weeks of Oct will hold key to that...very anxious now to see what will happen!

  13. #7338
    Monica

    I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.

    KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.

    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    Family guy, I have been wondering the same thing..Is the movement in Oct VB (and hopefully the next few VBs), to just create new demand or if Q's theory is correct and there will actually be visas available for people who have already filed?

    The rate of approvals in first 2 weeks of Oct will hold key to that...very anxious now to see what will happen!
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  14. #7339
    Quote Originally Posted by ssvp22 View Post
    I have not travelled to India since August 2000. So, hang on tight, you should get it soon
    wow ssvp... u have to rsvp a ticket to india soon...

  15. #7340
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Monica

    I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.

    KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.
    Yes..I understand Q bhai.. I'm just as perplexed as everyone here
    but I like your thoughts

  16. #7341
    Yoda
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    369
    Just curious.. if a person with pre-adjudicated 485 has left USA... will a GC be issued to him once his PD gets current? If yes.. that GC is wasted right? if no.. how will the USCIS know that they should not issue the GC since the person has left USA.

    I ask because, there is no need for the person to contact USCIS when his PD is current since he had already applied for 485.


    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy

    So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.

    Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.
    Last edited by skpanda; 09-15-2011 at 02:08 PM.

  17. #7342
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy

    So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.

    Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.
    Q, I believe that USCIS completed most of their Job in Aug that is why too little left for September, they have clocked almost double in Aug. Coming to Trackitt yes the case abandonment is higher than earlier, however if someone is waiting and no change in the case status apparent then there is nothing to update as well. People may have gone back especially in 2008 but that number is probably not that large to impact the post Jul 2007 inventory.

  18. #7343
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    Family guy, I have been wondering the same thing..Is the movement in Oct VB (and hopefully the next few VBs), to just create new demand or if Q's theory is correct and there will actually be visas available for people who have already filed?

    The rate of approvals in first 2 weeks of Oct will hold key to that...very anxious now to see what will happen!
    If they choose to release only 250 numbers in Oct then the probability of approval is 250 / 6000 i.e. 1 in 24 or 1 in 8 if they release 750. So really it will require a good deal of luck to get approved in October if one is current. The trend can be better if they decide to release more numbers or if the officers are given a free hand in approving all cases (Which seems unlikely). All the best to you and everyone who is current, may you all be amongst the lucky ones.

  19. #7344
    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Just curious.. if a person with pre-adjudicated 485 has left USA... will a GC be issued to him once his PD gets current? If yes.. that GC is wasted right? if no.. how will the USCIS know that they should not issue the GC since the person has left USA.

    I ask because, there is no need for the person to contact USCIS when his PD is current since he had already applied for 485.
    There are some cases wherein people get their GC after leaving, they would give their friends address or in some cases convert to CP and then attend interview. I have read about cases belonging to the category when people get their GC after going back they don't withdraw their 485, not sure how legally tenable this is. CP cases are fine as long at the employer provides the EVL.

  20. #7345
    Its possible that people give friends' address and receive GC after they move to India. Or USCIS issues GC and the GC is returned to them. In either case a visa number is wasted. Theoretically USCIS can reassign those numbers ... but I would doubt that they do.

    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Just curious.. if a person with pre-adjudicated 485 has left USA... will a GC be issued to him once his PD gets current? If yes.. that GC is wasted right? if no.. how will the USCIS know that they should not issue the GC since the person has left USA.

    I ask because, there is no need for the person to contact USCIS when his PD is current since he had already applied for 485.
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    ...if someone is waiting and no change in the case status apparent then there is nothing to update as well. People may have gone back especially in 2008 but that number is probably not that large to impact the post Jul 2007 inventory.
    This is trackitt update we aer talking where people just need to click on the email to update timestamp. I was talking about people pripr to 2007 Jul. But yes its possible that some people after Jul 2007 also might have gone back.

    This possibilit didn't hit me hard until I saw the trackitt data. Yes its possible people may not have updated trackitt even after getting GC and secondly they might have simply left. Don't know which is what and which is truly pending.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  21. #7346
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
    FY11 YTD* 3,706
    FY10 1,885
    FY09 4,218
    FY08 1,360
    FY07 806
    FY06 744
    FY05 158
    *Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.

    From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

    Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.
    This is good info, so we actually had just 6K SOFAD from EB5 so looks like those efforts are working.

  22. #7347
    Quote Originally Posted by RRRRRR View Post
    Hi Teddy,

    I personally know two cases which became current in June and have still not received there GC in EB2. They have not received any RFE and both have an approved I140. So seems like they have slowed down on EB2 and probably they are out of numbers ad may assign a visa number to them in October since visas have exhausted.

    Thanks, so there are indeed people who are current waiting for visa's. I made a typo intended to say that Oct 2011 bulletin is from 2012 cap.
    Also when you say OCT visa bulletin is out of 2010's does that mean they can use the visas from the prior years. Please clarify

    Thanks
    Thanks, so there are indeed people who are current waiting for visa's. I made a typo intended to say that Oct 2011 bulletin is from 2012 cap.

  23. #7348
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
    FY11 YTD* 3,706
    FY10 1,885
    FY09 4,218
    FY08 1,360
    FY07 806
    FY06 744
    FY05 158
    *Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.

    From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

    Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.
    interesting...less number of EB5's when business is good in US and more numbers issued when things are bad...

  24. #7349
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    If they choose to release only 250 numbers in Oct then the probability of approval is 250 / 6000 i.e. 1 in 24 or 1 in 8 if they release 750. So really it will require a good deal of luck to get approved in October if one is current. The trend can be better if they decide to release more numbers or if the officers are given a free hand in approving all cases (Which seems unlikely). All the best to you and everyone who is current, may you all be amongst the lucky ones.
    Damn! will need all the luck in the world now....Only hope is they don't pick cases randomly to approve but rather pick cases by PD.

  25. #7350
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    This is trackitt update we aer talking where people just need to click on the email to update timestamp. I was talking about people pripr to 2007 Jul. But yes its possible that some people after Jul 2007 also might have gone back.

    This possibilit didn't hit me hard until I saw the trackitt data. Yes its possible people may not have updated trackitt even after getting GC and secondly they might have simply left. Don't know which is what and which is truly pending.
    Q, Trackitt has been good on the approvals trend mainly, on the backlog it has not been reliable. I have seen the abandonment rates go up over the years. The chances of older cases being abandoned is higher, most people create their Id's itself when they are close to being current or are actually current this is especially true for EB2 ROW and EB1. For EB2-I and C too much time has elapsed. We have to find some kind of way to estimate how many people have gone back, maybe the agencies also do not have a handle on this that is why they are doing an intake in small steps and only the 485 data can be considered reliable.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 11 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 11 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •