Gurus,
I was thinking seriously about this and somehow i feel that CO is preparing IC for a quarterly spillover. Move IC a little bit and after 3 months spill over visas if available. Just a thought.
Gurus,
I was thinking seriously about this and somehow i feel that CO is preparing IC for a quarterly spillover. Move IC a little bit and after 3 months spill over visas if available. Just a thought.
Q here are the exact figures.
EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44
EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18
EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22
EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14
For the month of Aug both EB2 ROW and EB1 have clocked significantly higher. EB2 ROW seems to be going well even in September its slightly above last year. EB1 in September seems to be dull. Another point to note is that EB2 India is just 11, normally they would white wash during a regular spillover season, out of these 4 are PWMB cases. So looks like the agencies have done a good job in cleaning up cases that were actually current by the Aug and September bulletins. Very few people are complaining about not being approved when current. So I feel Oct bulletins movement is out of 2012's cap, 2011 is done, maybe the excess usage in Aug was the reason for no movement in September but all this coincides with the high rate of I140 approvals.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 09-15-2011 at 02:28 PM. Reason: Corrected 2010 to 2012
Hi Teddy,
I personally know two cases which became current in June and have still not received there GC in EB2. They have not received any RFE and both have an approved I140. So seems like they have slowed down on EB2 and probably they are out of numbers ad may assign a visa number to them in October since visas have exhausted.
Also when you say OCT visa bulletin is out of 2010's does that mean they can use the visas from the prior years. Please clarify
Thanks
Teddy
So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.
Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Guys, if DOS move's the dates slowly, over a period of time to collect new applications then what does visa bulletin mean for people who have already applied 485? Don't you think VB will give people an impression that visas are available? Poor Janata will start contacting USCIS/Congressmen thinking that their dates are current and will be eager to find out status....
Q,
Based on FACTS AND DATA and EB-485 inventories since 2010, i don't think it will be any closer to 6k number!
Not having updates on trackitt does not always mean less approvals or application abandoned!.
Last edited by veni001; 09-15-2011 at 01:36 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Family Guy
I was thinking abt this concept yesterday itself. Atleast 75% are not familiar with the words retrogression, demand pipeline , pre-adjudication etc.
I had a thought of one year movement in the next bulletin, but I am afraid to speak out as our friends with 07 PDs are so anxious. With this concept in mind , I am eagerly searching for FB intake numbers in 2010 , to find how far they can stretch their pipeline .
Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
FY11 YTD* 3,706
FY10 1,885
FY09 4,218
FY08 1,360
FY07 806
FY06 744
FY05 158
*Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.
From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.
Family guy, I have been wondering the same thing..Is the movement in Oct VB (and hopefully the next few VBs), to just create new demand or if Q's theory is correct and there will actually be visas available for people who have already filed?
The rate of approvals in first 2 weeks of Oct will hold key to that...very anxious now to see what will happen!
Monica
I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.
KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Just curious.. if a person with pre-adjudicated 485 has left USA... will a GC be issued to him once his PD gets current? If yes.. that GC is wasted right? if no.. how will the USCIS know that they should not issue the GC since the person has left USA.
I ask because, there is no need for the person to contact USCIS when his PD is current since he had already applied for 485.
Last edited by skpanda; 09-15-2011 at 02:08 PM.
Q, I believe that USCIS completed most of their Job in Aug that is why too little left for September, they have clocked almost double in Aug. Coming to Trackitt yes the case abandonment is higher than earlier, however if someone is waiting and no change in the case status apparent then there is nothing to update as well. People may have gone back especially in 2008 but that number is probably not that large to impact the post Jul 2007 inventory.
If they choose to release only 250 numbers in Oct then the probability of approval is 250 / 6000 i.e. 1 in 24 or 1 in 8 if they release 750. So really it will require a good deal of luck to get approved in October if one is current. The trend can be better if they decide to release more numbers or if the officers are given a free hand in approving all cases (Which seems unlikely). All the best to you and everyone who is current, may you all be amongst the lucky ones.
There are some cases wherein people get their GC after leaving, they would give their friends address or in some cases convert to CP and then attend interview. I have read about cases belonging to the category when people get their GC after going back they don't withdraw their 485, not sure how legally tenable this is. CP cases are fine as long at the employer provides the EVL.
Its possible that people give friends' address and receive GC after they move to India. Or USCIS issues GC and the GC is returned to them. In either case a visa number is wasted. Theoretically USCIS can reassign those numbers ... but I would doubt that they do.
This is trackitt update we aer talking where people just need to click on the email to update timestamp. I was talking about people pripr to 2007 Jul. But yes its possible that some people after Jul 2007 also might have gone back.
This possibilit didn't hit me hard until I saw the trackitt data. Yes its possible people may not have updated trackitt even after getting GC and secondly they might have simply left. Don't know which is what and which is truly pending.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q, Trackitt has been good on the approvals trend mainly, on the backlog it has not been reliable. I have seen the abandonment rates go up over the years. The chances of older cases being abandoned is higher, most people create their Id's itself when they are close to being current or are actually current this is especially true for EB2 ROW and EB1. For EB2-I and C too much time has elapsed. We have to find some kind of way to estimate how many people have gone back, maybe the agencies also do not have a handle on this that is why they are doing an intake in small steps and only the 485 data can be considered reliable.
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