EB5C does not have any visa allocated in the quota. This does not mean that they will get zero visas. What happens with spillover for EB2I-C will happen here similarly. In Q4 of FY 2012, if there are visas available in EB5, then they will be allocated in strict order of PD regardless of country or quota. So EB5C will get all the visas it needs as there are plenty leftover in this category.Originally Posted by veni001
Hi Teddy,
What are the chances of filing 485 for applicants who have 2008 PD's....
Thanks, FG
So the dates will only move till Dec 07 by Sep 2012.
Friends this is just an initial assessment. It is purely because of theI140 surge, we all know that it washed out the Aug and Sep bulletins. You would notice on Trackitt that EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals are coming quite fast. I think there is a 15-20% chance for Q1 2008 folks. I hope that this trend can be improved after measuring the approval rates for EB2 ROW and EB1 in Q1 2012. Good luck to all.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 09-13-2011 at 10:56 AM.
chances of BTM for EB2 IC
This question is for Q,Teddy,Veni, Nishant or any other expert out here.
As a part of BTM is there any chance of PD being made current for EB2 IC any time in the upcoming bulletins?
kd2008,
I am not sure if that "zeo" is a "zero" for FY2012 based on "Chinese Student Protection Act(CSPA)".
If none is allowed based on CSPA then i don't think spillover rule applies to EB5C in Q4?
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
iamdeb,
I think DOS/USCIS know how to move EB2IC cut-off dates to build the pipe line. So I don't think any chances of making "C" for EB2IC.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Teddy, this assumes slow date movement from now through Q3.
If CO doesn't believe in builiding pipeline to gather 25K+, he will stop the date right here till July2012 bulletin and that will jeopardize the likelihood of above
Thanks Teddy and pch053 for clarification.
I think its highly unlikely that the CSPA would be so restrictive. A country may not be allocated any visas in the quota but to debar it from getting any visas from spillover seems a bit too much.
Take a look at http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07_AppC.pdf
In a few years that restriction will also go away.
Last edited by kd2008; 09-13-2011 at 11:37 AM.
Teddy, please be more optimistic in ur analysisas i get a heartburn everytime i see Dec 2007, mine is unfortunately a month away, jan 2008.
Fellow GC aspirants, please support the bill HR 2161, follow the link and make your voice heard: https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr2161
Thanks!
Teddy
How much spillover including quota would take us to oct 2007 do you think ?
( In other words, if it is going to halt at oct 07 what is the net sofad)
I do believe that applying SO to EB5C would be circumventing the CSPA provision, and should ideally be frowned upon. However, right now, EB5 is being touted as something that will improve economy, get jobs etc, hence it may in fact be allowed by government. So both ways it's 50-50. Had it not been for the current economic policy taken by government encouraging EB5, I would have totally sided with Veni here.
No IMHO the chance is 0.1%.
I did not make it 0 as it is impossible to predict their whims.
It does seem to me that DOS/USCIS have a strategy for this, and we shall see it unfold this year, and the pattern will continue in upcoming FYs. This FY is borderline for that strategy as this FY also consists of some already pre-adjudicated inventory which can show up in demand data, as well as the PWMBs. The PWMB is the part which makes it most tricky. Some PWMB will always be there for various reasons, but the amount should not be as big. Every FY beginning, I think there will always be around 5-10k preadjudicated inventory, so that part is not going to baffle USCIS/DOS.
Last edited by nishant2200; 09-13-2011 at 12:40 PM.
I understand your feelings my friend, there are some chances for Q1 2008 friends to be able to file for 485, believe around 25%, C maybe be a tough call. This is still very early days.Teddy, please be more optimistic in ur analysis
The assumption is ~ 22K SOFAD. My assumption of porting is 6K which is higher than the others. This date is for actual GC issuance the intake must be buffered for ~ 30 (End of Dec 2007).
Chances are very less especially after the Oct bulletin showing guarded intake.
My priority date is 07/31/2007 - EB2 I. A question to all experts here -
What would be my appox timeline of getting EAD and Greencard itself?
Thanks - Shashidhar
One step at a time dude
wow...u were on vacation all this while???? dude!!!!!...Going to work after vacation, hopefully by late afternoon, can catch up more with forum, and use actual keyboard
The Oct VB has infused life into us, the talk of hibernate for 7 months is gone!
thank you both teddy and N....
On other note... teddy please dont change your stand on numbers... i like it when u are conservative, Q is optimistic, Veni is a she, Spec is analytic and N is all over the place with all his brilliant ideas....
Last edited by soggadu; 09-13-2011 at 12:58 PM.
I know. Just wanted to see what experts gonna say.
By the way my original post...
My priority date is 07/31/2007 - EB2 I. A question to all experts here -
What would be my appox timeline of getting EAD and Greencard itself?
Support the IDEA Act of 2011
If ever there was going to be a piece of legislation that will help EB2IC move forward for those who deserve it, it is THIS.
NOW is the time for you to support it.
If you have a reason to be here on this page, you HAVE to look at this and read the amendments it suggests to section 203(b) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.
Go and press the Support button NOW!!!
https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr2161
We need to take the number of people supporting this from 15 to 15000.
Last edited by manubhai; 09-13-2011 at 01:24 PM.
Guys the way VO is moving VISA dates one can get a GC within 2-3 months of filing 485. As per when somebody will be able to file 485 .... PLEASE READ THE FIRST POST and try to STAY CURRENT ON THE THREAD. You should be able to figure out the answers yourself. Its very difficult to answer everybody's personal situations. Besides it doesn't add much value for other people who are reading the thread.
Nishant / Veni, CSPA only states that quota is zero. I don't think it rules out spillover to EB5.
Now that VO has shown clear inclination towards moving dates slowly ahead, I am comfortable saying that in year 2012 teh chances of EB2 being C is ZERO.
Don, as of now the mean probability lies around Dec 2007. My own range is Oct 07 - Mar 08.
Veni, because there is substantial EB5 backlog. And while the chinese cant get any quota, doesn't prohibit them from filing EB5 or getting spillover. China is singlehandedly driving the demand in EB5 IMHO. The zero quota is designed to discourage that. But still the demand is robust.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Chinese Student Protection Act of 1992 allowed chinese students who were residing in USA in the 90s to immediately obtain their GCs . This was after the students' protest against chinese govt in 1989.
The US Govt issued GCs to those students immediately , by allowing above 7% country limit , with a conditional reduction of 1000 immigrant visas from the annual quota every FY( 300 from EB3 and 700 from EB5)
Bill text here.......... http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/.../~c102Y2B9qX::
With "Zero" EB5 Visas alloted every year, I dont think Chinese could apply in EB5 category . But I dont understand the context as well
Qblogfan may have enough information I guess.
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