EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[rdsingh79]

Thanks Veni and Q,

I know my frd Sugada..there are no guarantees in life except death and taxes

Singh, you have 100% chances with 0% guarentee.

[nishant2200]

Yes, exactly. And if this is the case, CO has taken a very very gutsy move, and this is at point of no return now then. Intake has to happen if the full 5.5k has been alloted in one shot, I think.

Now isnt there a possibility that at sometime dates may become 'U' or very far back to avoid porters, after the intake and until the SO season.

CO has taken full EB2 I/C supply and applied in first month of year. If you look at this movement , it is 6k as per USCIS data which is little bit higher than what DOS publishes every month ( Demand Data ). Now in Dec month CO may assume that there will be at least 3k spill over in year 2012. which he may apply in Dec 2011 and will move date to what ever point he thinks. ( No one knows how much he thinks that it can be reachable by End of 2012 ), this is where NVC theory comes in picture. Once USCIS's demand is 0 he will use those Cp cases and allocate extra visas assuming spill over for 2012 and move date ).

If he does this in Dec it will take 4-6 months ( USCIS can make I 485 processing time to 6 months ) for USCIS's pre adjudicate those cases by June / july 2012 and ready to consume Spill over visas. This way he can stop date to where it was in Dec 2011 till July 2011 and since he is conservative date may not retro in Spe 2012 but little bit may fall over to EB3 or he may do little adjustment in July 2012 and move date accordingly ) This works perfect since USCIS has already pre adjudicated most of cases before July 2012 and in last 3 months they only need to offset little bit and approve in 3 months ).

[nishant2200]

I think watching for approvals for people who became current in Oct VB is important. Are they really going to honor this movement, and if yes from where. I am still bit puzzled. On vacation, I need to take a break but just cant stop thinking.

[qblogfan]

me too.

I am curious whether they will approve 5-6k next month.

If they only approve 2800/12, that means it's just a pure BTM.

I think watching for approvals for people who became current in Oct VB is important. Are they really going to honor this movement, and if yes from where. I am still bit puzzled. On vacation, I need to take a break but just cant stop thinking.

[krishnav]

[QUOTE=qesehmk;8391]Agree w Veni. EAD 100% by Jun 2012. GC 100% by Sep 2012.



Hi Q, Veni, Others,

First of all, Congrats to all who became current!! Very happy for you.

I was surprised with you guys's prediction of someone with PD in late Sept getting EAD by June 2012 and GC by sept 2012. My PD is Sept 13 2007 and I was thinking, in case there is no further movement till May/June of 2012 (which is normally when spillover starts), my date might become current then and take another 3 months (approx) to get my EAD (so around Aug/Sept 2012). Is this prediction now becasue you believe there will be more movement in the next few months before the spillover period starts?? Am I missing something here?

Also, if some one gets his/her EAD by Jun 2012, how can he/she get their GC by Sept 2012. Isn't normally a standard to say it takes around 1 yr to get you GC after you get you EAD? Is it because the cases would be prejudicated?? If yes, what is the criteria for a case to be prejudicated. If these are things I can read about somewhere, could someone please point me there.

Thanks.

[veni001]

Hi Q, Veni, Others,

First of all, Congrats to all who became current!! Very happy for you.

I was surprised with you guys's prediction of someone with PD in late Sept getting EAD by June 2012 and GC by sept 2012. My PD is Sept 13 2007 and I was thinking, in case there is no further movement till May/June of 2012 (which is normally when spillover starts), my date might become current then and take another 3 months (approx) to get my EAD (so around Aug/Sept 2012). Is this prediction now becasue you believe there will be more movement in the next few months before the spillover period starts?? Am I missing something here?

Also, if some one gets his/her EAD by Jun 2012, how can he/she get their GC by Sept 2012. Isn't normally a standard to say it takes around 1 yr to get you GC after you get you EAD? Is it because the cases would be prejudicated?? If yes, what is the criteria for a case to be prejudicated. If these are things I can read about somewhere, could someone please point me there.

Thanks.

krishnav,

Since the new applications (PWMB) will not reflect in demand until Jan 2012, we can not rule out the possibility of BTM in the next two visa bulletins.

Any movement afterwords depends on how CO is allocating visas to EB2IC (all FY quota at once, monthly allocations, similar to FY 2010, quarterly spillover .... etc)

Once 485 is filed, getting GC purely depends on processing times and availability of numbers, I personally know people who received GC and EAD on the same day, about 3 months after filing their 485.

In some cases EAD arrived after GC!

[murali83]

Guys,

What are the numbers or data that are needed to determine if this 3 month movement came from the 2011 quota or 2012 quota. I strongly believe being the conservative guy CO is, he had no reason to move anything in Oct and he would not be obligated to give any explanation to anyone if the dates had stalled at April 15, 2007. Peaking its to July 2007 was not at all required even if he wanted to progress the dates little by little.

My gut feeling is that they expected a lot of applications from EB1/EB2 Row in Sep, but did not receive any and hence they moved the dates now so that visas dont go a waste from the 2011 quota. This is also in line with this forums predictions for 2011.

But to ascertain this further, what kind of numbers do we need, will the next months demand data help us, or what else do we need?

[bestin]

yeahhhhhhhhhh...i got current too....

[sugada]

no it won't be current or even may not go into 2008 this year (2012).... Don't keep false hopes....this forum is all about reality and calculations ( don't ask me what I am doing here then) than rumours.... But anyway welcome to the forum....

Thanks Soggadu, felt like joining the penguins to face winter with happy feet, but I read that there were not many applicants for GC after 2009 with start of this govt and I am hoping that recession might have definitely made its iron step there, any of this (or to bring more revenue) if have caused the decline may push up the PD to current.

[veni001]

Guys,

What are the numbers or data that are needed to determine if this 3 month movement came from the 2011 quota or 2012 quota. I strongly believe being the conservative guy CO is, he had no reason to move anything in Oct and he would not be obligated to give any explanation to anyone if the dates had stalled at April 15, 2007. Peaking its to July 2007 was not at all required even if he wanted to progress the dates little by little.

My gut feeling is that they expected a lot of applications from EB1/EB2 Row in Sep, but did not receive any and hence they moved the dates now so that visas dont go a waste from the 2011 quota. This is also in line with this forums predictions for 2011.

But to ascertain this further, what kind of numbers do we need, will the next months demand data help us, or what else do we need?

murali,

Even though we can not rule out the possibility of assigning visa numbers from previous FY in the month of October(Spec explained this before), the chances are very less based on how far EB2IC came along in the last FY.

I don't think USCIS just guessed increase in EB1/EB2ROW demand for Q4'11, but based on 140 completion in Q3-FY2011.

[pakkineni]

Thank you Q and ssvp22, My client because of some new policies they are strict this time. Looks like finding new contract is better option.

It seems the client cant afford consulting rate and wants to cut costs but likes you. Is there any way you can delay by at least 2 months .. that way at least you more than likely go past 485. I do think that there is a very good chance of another movement.

Visa extension you are going to need no matter what unfortunately. To go on EAD you need to have 485 filed at least for 6 months.

I agree w SSVP that you shouldn't trust the client to process GC after 1 yr. Tell them its so close that they should do it ASAP and you should have it in writing from them.

[qesehmk]

Guys ..... lets take a moment to remember those who died in 911 as well as those innocents who died around the world in various wars or terrorist incidents including the Mumbai Trains and Taj Hotel and Paliament in Delhi and many many others.

[Kanmani]

even may not go into 2008 this year (2012).... .

Soggadu bhai
LOL at you comments to Veni bro......

I am sure the CoD will move into 2008 this FY and I 'guess' it would halt at Apr 2008 at the end .

[Gclongwait]

Hey guys,
I am having trouble understanding how this movement can be due to allocation from next year. If they used 2800 for C and 2800 for I then how can India and china be at the same dates. Obviously C should have been further ahead of I. This has to be some spillover that has been used.

[qesehmk]

Very good insight GCL! Missed me too.

But here is a question - if the logic is that they are moving dates to create forward demand then if the dates have moved enough to take care of Q1 2012 EB2C demand, the movement could still happen using 2012 quota, right?

PLEASE NOTE - AT THIS TIME I DO NOT KNOW WHAT THIS IS. I AM ONLY RAISING A DOUBT.

Hey guys,
I am having trouble understanding how this movement can be due to allocation from next year. If they used 2800 for C and 2800 for I then how can India and china be at the same dates. Obviously C should have been further ahead of I. This has to be some spillover that has been used.

[rinku1112]

Guys, I have been a regular reader of this forum since its inception and enjoy reading every one of you who contribute here.

My PD is in June 2007 and I contribute 2 people to your PWMB statistics. Needless to say I am elated to be current in Oct to file my 485 after what seemed an endless wait for 4+ years after 140 approval. I must say I was pleasantly surprised with this movement in Oct, after bracing myself completely for another wait of 6-12 months. I am eager to apply my 485 asap and enjoy the peace of mind afforded as a result.

After all these years however, the dates couldn't have moved at a more inappropriate time for me. I have to travel to my company corporate headquarters in Europe in early November for 2 weeks and I might be formally handed more responsibilities by the corp big brass during this time. In other words this is a trip that I cant afford to miss professionally.

My questions: (1) Is it possible for me to travel on H1 and return safely (in mid Nov) after I file my 485/AP/EAD apps in Oct? (2) What will happen in the unlikely case of my 485 getting approved while I am in Europe; and I don't have an AP in hand yet by then?

I will be contacting my company lawyer early next week for advice too, but I have been having a restless weekend contemplating this so far and respect the collective wisdom on this forum very much to see if any of you have been in similar situations before and can give me some advice that can help me plan my decisions over the next month better?

I am so sorry, if this is not a relevant question on this thread and I will not feel slighted if this is moved by admins to a more appropriate location on this forum.

Thanks much in advance.

[10102007]

Looks like we can throw out all the prediction algorithms as the CO has just thrown a curve-ball. Feel happy for the guys who can apply for their 485 now. Just imagining what those guys must be going through (mostly relief I guess) makes me look forward to the day when the next batch of guys/ gals become current. For completely selfish reasons, I just hope that the next movement will be for 3 months, taking it to atleast Oct 15, but beyond that is even better because so many 'guru's in the forum have their dates in the second half of October.

Sometimes I feel a bit cheap and am disgusted at myself for postponing India trips just because of the fear of running in to the Great Black Hole of Stamping. Its disgusting because we have to put off the trips for not faults of ours. Anyways, these movements bring hope to so many of us. Hope can sometimes be a cruel thing but let us hope that this hope brings joy to all of us soon.

[ssvp22]

Looks like we can throw out all the prediction algorithms as the CO has just thrown a curve-ball.

I think we still need predictions so that we are able to tell amount of visa numbers consumed/left. With numbers i hand, we make sure history wont repeat itself where INS wastes visa numbers whilst people are waiting in the queue.

[qesehmk]

rinku
#1 - I don't see any problem whatsoever especially if you are working for a fortune 500. Even otherwise I don't see a problem as long as the company is reasonably known.

#2 - You don't need AP if you have a valid H1 in your passport. Even if you apply for one, the likelihood that you will get AP or an-approved-485 by Nov after filing in Oct is 20% or less. But as I said it will have no bearing on your ability to reenter (except if there is fraud involved - which I am sure doesn't look like one )

My questions: (1) Is it possible for me to travel on H1 and return safely (in mid Nov) after I file my 485/AP/EAD apps in Oct? (2) What will happen in the unlikely case of my 485 getting approved while I am in Europe; and I don't have an AP in hand yet by then?

Looks like we can throw out all the prediction algorithms as the CO has just thrown a curve-ball. ....

Sometimes I feel a bit cheap and am disgusted at myself for postponing India trips just because of the fear of running in to the Great Black Hole of Stamping. Its disgusting because we have to put off the trips for not faults of ours.

1010, actually the numbers moved almost exactly as per my prediction but I am baffled by the one month late move. I had predicted Jul 1st week.
When in September the dates stalled, it was a shocker and the explanation was that EB1 EB2ROW have unusually high demand. But it seems that demand didn't really materialize and CO now in order to save 2011 visas is probably moving dates in October and using 2011 visas to cover it.

We have seen high approvals in October in the past indicating usage of prior year visas. But still I don't want to thump my chest and say this is exactly what has happened here. We will see.

On another note - I think you are one courageous person to admit self-disgust on postponing india trip for fear of stamping.

[Rajesh_n21]

Guys, I have been a regular reader of this forum since its inception and enjoy reading every one of you who contribute here.

My PD is in June 2007 and I contribute 2 people to your PWMB statistics. Needless to say I am elated to be current in Oct to file my 485 after what seemed an endless wait for 4+ years after 140 approval. I must say I was pleasantly surprised with this movement in Oct, after bracing myself completely for another wait of 6-12 months. I am eager to apply my 485 asap and enjoy the peace of mind afforded as a result.

After all these years however, the dates couldn't have moved at a more inappropriate time for me. I have to travel to my company corporate headquarters in Europe in early November for 2 weeks and I might be formally handed more responsibilities by the corp big brass during this time. In other words this is a trip that I cant afford to miss professionally.

My questions: (1) Is it possible for me to travel on H1 and return safely (in mid Nov) after I file my 485/AP/EAD apps in Oct? (2) What will happen in the unlikely case of my 485 getting approved while I am in Europe; and I don't have an AP in hand yet by then?

I will be contacting my company lawyer early next week for advice too, but I have been having a restless weekend contemplating this so far and respect the collective wisdom on this forum very much to see if any of you have been in similar situations before and can give me some advice that can help me plan my decisions over the next month better?

I am so sorry, if this is not a relevant question on this thread and I will not feel slighted if this is moved by admins to a more appropriate location on this forum.

Thanks much in advance.

Rinku,

I have the same problem as you do. This unexpected movement came at a very difficult time. I will be traveling to India in mid-November. This means my GC has to be approved and I should have the GC in hand in 45 days. If it gets approved while I am out of the country, that could be a lot of pain. One of my friends, was on a business trip outside the country and on his return, he was harassed at the of Port of Entry by a disgruntled officer. He was told that his GC has been approved while he was outside the country. Because of the approval, his H1B got automatically cancelled. Hence, his H1B Stamp had no value and he did not have the GC card in hand. The officer was repeatedly harassing that he was going to deport my friend. Thankfully my friend is a cool guy, he kept his calm, survived the 3rd Checkup location, spend 3 hours in the airport and finally got released to enter the secure zone. No, he did not get that officers badge information.. hmm..

Long story short - If GC gets approved, and your only entry document is H1B stamp, then get ready to face the music..

Site Members,

My Question: What if my family decides to use Advance Parole to re-enter the country. Does that allow me to enter inside if my GC got approved while I was outside the country??

Anybody willing to help me out here with my first question on my first post

Thanks,
Rajesh

[superdesi2100]

Rinku,

I have the same problem as you do. This unexpected movement came at a very difficult time. I will be traveling to India in mid-November. This means my GC has to be approved and I should have the GC in hand in 45 days. If it gets approved while I am out of the country, that could be a lot of pain. One of my friends, was on a business trip outside the country and on his return, he was harassed at the of Port of Entry by a disgruntled officer. He was told that his GC has been approved while he was outside the country. Because of the approval, his H1B got automatically cancelled. Hence, his H1B Stamp had no value and he did not have the GC card in hand. The officer was repeatedly harassing that he was going to deport my friend. Thankfully my friend is a cool guy, he kept his calm, survived the 3rd Checkup location, spend 3 hours in the airport and finally got released to enter the secure zone. No, he did not get that officers badge information.. hmm..

Long story short - If GC gets approved, and your only entry document is H1B stamp, then get ready to face the music..

Site Members,

My Question: What if my family decides to use Advance Parole to re-enter the country. Does that allow me to enter inside if my GC got approved while I was outside the country??

Anybody willing to help me out here with my first question on my first post

Thanks,
Rajesh

There was some discussion on this on Page 241/242. Anyways, my cousin went through this last year. His lawyer advised him to go to the US consulate in India and have his passport stamped with an immigrant visa. The lawyer had told him at that time that as soon as the green card is issued, H1 is automatically null and void. He went to the US consulate in Mumbai and they stamped his passport with immigrant visa there. Just keep all the required documents with you, including letter of employment.

[visagcinfo]

.... actually the numbers moved almost exactly as per my prediction but I am baffled by the one month late move. I had predicted Jul 1st week.
When in September the dates stalled, it was a shocker and the explanation was that EB1 EB2ROW have unusually high demand. But it seems that demand didn't really materialize and CO now in order to save 2011 visas is probably moving dates in October and using 2011 visas to cover it.

.........

On another note - I think you are one courageous person to admit self-disgust on postponing india trip for fear of stamping.

Q,
Doesn't it mean that CO (or whoever it is) can do whatever he wants to do no matter what the rules or precedents say? (interpret the rules in the way he wants to)
Unusually high demand for EB1 EB2ROW showing up all in a sudden - I don't buy this story. I believe it is something made up. I can't prove it, but it is something they are saying to cover up something.
postponing trip - guess there are plenty such cases! Family can't go either from this year because dependent visa is also now processed like primary H1b.

[rinku1112]

rinku
#1 - I don't see any problem whatsoever especially if you are working for a fortune 500. Even otherwise I don't see a problem as long as the company is reasonably known.

#2 - You don't need AP if you have a valid H1 in your passport. Even if you apply for one, the likelihood that you will get AP or an-approved-485 by Nov after filing in Oct is 20% or less. But as I said it will have no bearing on your ability to reenter (except if there is fraud involved - which I am sure doesn't look like one )

Thanks Q. Appreciate your response buddy. That 20% chance of approval while I am still abroad is what got me thinking about this issue. The company itself is a multinational European company and a leader in its field. But I would not be surprised if the immigration officer at port of entry does not know about the company.

About Fraud - I wish I had done some fraud. I wouldn't have waited for 13 years to file 485. But no such luck

Cheers.

[soggadu]

Thanks Soggadu, felt like joining the penguins to face winter with happy feet, but I read that there were not many applicants for GC after 2009 with start of this govt and I am hoping that recession might have definitely made its iron step there, any of this (or to bring more revenue) if have caused the decline may push up the PD to current.

again, check the facts and data section .... You will see so many applications during and after 2009....

[rinku1112]

Rinku,

Long story short - If GC gets approved, and your only entry document is H1B stamp, then get ready to face the music..

Rajesh

Thanks Rajesh. I never thought I would have a worry in the world at the slightest when my PD ever got current I will let you all know what I hear from my lawyer on Monday about this travel situation post 485 filing and pre-AP approval. So what are you planning to do now about your travel?

There was some discussion on this on Page 241/242. Anyways, my cousin went through this last year. His lawyer advised him to go to the US consulate in India and have his passport stamped with an immigrant visa. The lawyer had told him at that time that as soon as the green card is issued, H1 is automatically null and void. He went to the US consulate in Mumbai and they stamped his passport with immigrant visa there. Just keep all the required documents with you, including letter of employment.

Thanks Superdesi. Sounds logical to me. I will check this fact as well with my HR/lawyers and see what they suggest. Appreciate your response.

Cheers.