EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qblogfan]

It's very likely!

In fact I think EB1 and EB2 ROW demand is too low for Q1 of 2012, so he has no other choice but to approve more EB2 C&I.

I saw on mitbbs a Chinese EB1 with PD July 6th was approved this week. You can see they are approving fresh new EB1 new cases in 2 months! I seriously suspect that there are some visas left in FY 2011 because of the stop of EB2 C&I in September VB. Why they are approving fresh EB1 case in 2 months?

This VB movement is not only for BTM, but also because of the low demand of EB1 and EB2 ROW. Last year he only used 15% of annual quota of FY 2011 in Q1 and he got worried that this year the approval in Q1 can be less than 15% if he does not approve EB2 C&I.

Just my two cents.

Something tells me that they have leftover visas from FY2011 which they will tag to PDs apr to july already from inventory .

So PWMBs will be the demand for the next FY 2012

This is just a guess . but who knows.........

Congratulations to everyone PD apr to jul

[mesan123]

first of all...congrats to Monica behen & leo....
Teddy, soggadu and Nishanth....you guys also may see light very soon ....happy for all the people who became current...

felt nice to see the 15th JULY 2007 date...as thatz the fiasco month...so all the people with EAD 's will be cleared now...

hope in next few months bulliten...we can see more movement....atleast to take extra inventory which gives EAD's for people.

[bieber]

I believe the next stop will be at 15th Aug 2007, Teddy you will be current very soon, hang in there

[TeddyKoochu]

first of all...congrats to Monica behen & leo....
Teddy, soggadu and Nishanth....you guys also may see light very soon ....happy for all the people who became current...

felt nice to see the 15th JULY 2007 date...as thatz the fiasco month...so all the people with EAD 's will be cleared now...

hope in next few months bulliten...we can see more movement....atleast to take extra inventory which gives EAD's for people.

I believe the next stop will be at 15th Aug 2007, Teddy you will be current very soon, hang in there

Also congrats to Veni even he is current now, Bieber & mesan123 thanks for your kind words. The EAD span extends till 15th Aug, 17th Aug was the last filing date.

[qblogfan]

congratulations to all the folks who become current.

hope T will be current next month!

good luck to all! we need to let the congress and DOS hear our voice!

continue to fight for a better treatment to EB immigrants!

Also congrats to Veni even he is current now, Bieber & mesan123 thanks for your kind words. The EAD span extends till 15th Aug, 17th Aug was the last filing date.

[bieber]

Veni brother congratulations, also to Monica, pch, leo and if i forget any

03may2007, I remember u

If CO did this last month, the party would have just continued..

[qblogfan]

I think he was over conservative on the September VB.

Now he realized that he needs to be less conservative.

Veni brother congratulations, also to Monica, pch, leo and if i forget any

03may2007, I remember u

If CO did this last month, the party would have just continued..

[nishant2200]

This is great news. I am on vacation n stuck on cumbersome typing on iphone.

As I have been saying earlier, they can always move dates to whatever they want and put some disclaimer as to why and any caveats. Like this is for only capturing demand, as they said this time. I had this discussion earlier n Spec responded, as well as Q.

I think they are setting the stage for this year. This is the first BTM, next I think they will goto 15-Aug-2007 as Bieber said, and then new territory of late 2007.

[nishant2200]

first of all...congrats to Monica behen & leo....
Teddy, soggadu and Nishanth....you guys also may see light very soon ....happy for all the people who became current...

felt nice to see the 15th JULY 2007 date...as thatz the fiasco month...so all the people with EAD 's will be cleared now...

hope in next few months bulliten...we can see more movement....atleast to take extra inventory which gives EAD's for people.

Thank you for ur wishes. My prayers for everyone. Need a drink now.

[bieber]

If all PMWBs wait for couple of weeks to file next month and mislead that there is no new demand, CO might just push the dates in 2009

[nishant2200]

He says the dates will slow stop or retro once enough demand is made. What is enough demand? Is it 30k, 25k, 20k? I think based on that, there will be more bursts. This is not the end of it.

Alright .... so my fears are right:

This is from the bulletin


So basically this is his BTM for now. So that he can general enough demand from PWMBs. It would be interesting to see what he would do if the PWMBs are in a couple of thousands. I wish the BTM was at least till Dec 2007.

[qblogfan]

quarter one goal is 38k for the whole world.

if the whole world consumption in Q1 is much lower than 38k, he may admit more cases. if the whole world consumption exceeds 38k, then stop.

just a wild guess.

He says the dates will slow stop or retro once enough demand is made. What is enough demand? Is it 30k, 25k, 20k? I think based on that, there will be more bursts. This is not the end of it.

[qblogfan]

nobody will hold off, I think people will rush into the pipe.

If all PMWBs wait for couple of weeks to file next month and mislead that there is no new demand, CO might just push the dates in 2009

[Pedro Gonzales]

A) This is the BTM that we've all been waiting for, just not as B as we'd all hoped for.
B) This marks the beginning of an era of quarterly spill over.
C) They were conservative with EB2-IC movement for the Sep VB, and maybe expected EB1 & EB2ROW demand didn't pan out, leaving us with unused 2011 visa numbers; these don't expire on Sep 30, 2011 as we all thought but can be used in October 2011.
D) Between the worsening economy, the lower than expected EB1/EB2ROW runrate demand, the elimination of all EB1/EB2ROW inventory, and the elimination of EB5 C visas (for 2012), we may see a pretty good spillover next year even if not as high as this years.
E) PWMB and Porting figures are lower than the 5K to 6K figure we had calculated earlier, so we may not see a big enough inventory build up of EB2-IC applicants for a retrogression, so dates may continue to move forward in future months.

Is there a sound basis to believe anything above, other than 'A'? We have no way of confirming 'B', 'C', or 'D' for at least another 3 months, although next month's demand data should give us an insight into 'E'.

I'm going to try to stay grounded and not get carried away just yet. My PD of Apr 25, 2008 isn't around the corner.

[qesehmk]

There are so many permuatations combinations and besides he can do what he pleases. As of now he has enough cases with him that he doesn't need to move a single day by May 2012 before spillover starts. However as we have discussed previously, May 2012 will be too late to process newly filed cases post Aug 2007. That's why whereevr the dates are going to land in 2012 September, that date must become current latest by Mar 2012.

It would be quite saddist to move the dates at the last hour and it will be equally saddist to move dates ONLY upto what 2012 will be able to process. It would be much more humane and prudent as well if the October BTM was to make everything current for one or two months OR at least move the dates to Dec 2007.

He says the dates will slow stop or retro once enough demand is made. What is enough demand? Is it 30k, 25k, 20k? I think based on that, there will be more bursts. This is not the end of it.

[Gclongwait]

I am beginning to believe in those NVC fee receipts now

[qesehmk]

A - quite likely.
B - False
C - Possible
D - Not necessarily
E - Absolutely.

A) This is the BTM that we've all been waiting for, just not as B as we'd all hoped for.
B) This marks the beginning of an era of quarterly spill over.
C) They were conservative with EB2-IC movement for the Sep VB, and maybe expected EB1 & EB2ROW demand didn't pan out, leaving us with unused 2011 visa numbers; these don't expire on Sep 30, 2011 as we all thought but can be used in October 2011.
D) Between the worsening economy, the lower than expected EB1/EB2ROW runrate demand, the elimination of all EB1/EB2ROW inventory, and the elimination of EB5 C visas (for 2012), we may see a pretty good spillover next year even if not as high as this years.
E) PWMB and Porting figures are lower than the 5K to 6K figure we had calculated earlier, so we may not see a big enough inventory build up of EB2-IC applicants for a retrogression, so dates may continue to move forward in future months.

Is there a sound basis to believe anything above, other than 'A'? We have no way of confirming 'B', 'C', or 'D' for at least another 3 months, although next month's demand data should give us an insight into 'E'.

I'm going to try to stay grounded and not get carried away just yet. My PD of Apr 25, 2008 isn't around the corner.

[Spectator]

2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.

I am not sure what the excitement is about.

This is nothing new.

Since at least 1993, China has received 1,000 less visas per year, split 300 from EB3 and 700 from EB5.

It was the quid pro quo for the CHINESE STUDENT PROTECTION ACT of 1992 (S.1216 102nd Congress) http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c102:S.1216: .

From the Bill :

(d) OFFSET IN PER COUNTRY NUMERICAL LEVEL-

(1) IN GENERAL- The numerical level under section 202(a)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act applicable to natives of the People's Republic of China in each applicable fiscal year (as defined in paragraph (3)) shall be reduced by 1,000.

(2) ALLOTMENT IF SECTION 202(e) APPLIES- If section 202(e) of the Immigration and Nationality Act is applied to the People's Republic of China in an applicable fiscal year, in applying such section--

(A) 300 immigrant visa numbers shall be deemed to have been previously issued to natives of that foreign state under section 203(b)(3)(A)(i) of such Act in that year, and

(B) 700 immigrant visa numbers shall be deemed to have been previously issued to natives of that foreign state under section 203(b)(5) of such Act in that year.

The same reduction was also shown for this year in this document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf

It has been that way for as long as I can remember.

Since China represents the bulk of EB5 approvals, CO either has to wait until July to release numbers to China as spillover, or more likely since demand from other Countries has been so low, operate Quarterly Spillover, which would not have the dangers inherent in operating it in EB2.

The effects of the Chinese Student Protection Act will have no bearing on lowering the number of EB5 approvals, either in FY2011 or FY2012

[GCFresher]

Thanks Q.

It is indeed a great relief ...for now

Alright ... now this is CRAZY!!!!! CO has moved dates for October by 3 months thus releasing exactly 6K of quota. So without any delay lets first congratulate those who are current (including GCFresher and Monica)!

First I thought of taking the credit by saying "I told you "FIRST WEEK OF JULY" for September bulletin. And yes it is very enticing to take credit except for the fact that this movement occured for next year.

I do not know whether they will use 2011 numbers for October approvals or 2012 EB2IC quota. In the past they have used PY number for CY. So its possible. But whatever it is ... guys this takes it one step closer to do a BTM. Lets hope for one ASAP!!

[qblogfan]

In the last FY, Mr.CO only assigned 2803/12=230 visas every month to EB2 China.

If B is false, he will only approve 230 visas for EB2 China, right?

A - quite likely.
B - False
C - Possible
D - Not necessarily
E - Absolutely.

[nishant2200]

C seems highly possible. Or they just want to do BTMs carefully in bursts to avoid overload on USCIS.

A - quite likely.
B - False
C - Possible
D - Not necessarily
E - Absolutely.

[qblogfan]

As far as I know, the student protection act granted GC to a bunch of people who didn't take part in the students protest in 1989. You only needed to lie to get a GC. It's called "blood card".

Even today some people lied to the US government that they have been abused by the Chinese government and they got GC in several months. Many Chinese folks faked some stories to humuliate China in order to get their green cards. It's a shame. I lived in China for 22 years and nobody bothered me and it's not as bad as the western media described. I will never lose dignity to get GC. I love and support my home country. My only purpose of staying here is to make a living.

Many people lied and got GC much quicker than the guys who work hard and pay tax. It's a ridiculous system.

I am not sure what the excitement is about.

This is nothing new.

Since at least 1993, China has received 1,000 less visas per year, split 300 from EB3 and 700 from EB5.

It was the quid pro quo for the CHINESE STUDENT PROTECTION ACT of 1992 (S.1216 102nd Congress) http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c102:S.1216: .

From the Bill :



The same reduction was also shown for this year in this document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf

It has been that way for as long as I can remember.

Since China represents the bulk of EB5 approvals, CO either has to wait until July to release numbers to China as spillover, or more likely since demand from other Countries has been so low, operate Quarterly Spillover, which would not have the dangers inherent in operating it in EB2.

The effects of the Chinese Student Protection Act will have no bearing on lowering the number of EB5 approvals, either in FY2011 or FY2012

[Kanmani]

If this movement is purely for building 2012 demand , they should have moved the dates beyond aug 07 also this is the known demand already in the pipeline except for PWMBs .

This movement could not be taken as a BTM too.

[Gclongwait]

If this movement is purely for building 2012 demand , they should have moved the dates beyond aug 07 also this is the known demand already in the pipeline except for PWMBs .

This movement could not be taken as a BTM too.

I agree. This is not BTM. This is too less for BTM. This is either first stage of BTM that can extend to another 6 to 9 to 12 months or this is simply filling up last years visas (not sure if thats possible). In my opinion BTM has to cover up next SO + a buffer which this obviously does not.

[gcseeker]

Congratulations to those whose dates became current today.

Kanmani and Gclongwait

The CO appears to be taking a very conservative approach and like Q/Teddy/Nishant pointed out .It could be various scenarios

1.CO is traditionally very conservative and he is taking an slow approach
2.Does not want to burden USCIS with big movements.
3.There will be bursts of BTM to build demand.


It can only be good going forward since dates are moving.CO will have to do another BTM if he truly wants to build demand before March 2012.
Previously I was very pessimistic in my opinion that 2007 will not get cleared in 2012. Now atleast I can dream that 2007 will probably get cleared by Aug 2012.Maybe it doesn't and the dates retrogress like the CO claims but atleast things are looking up.