EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[nishant2200]

Bad things stay longer with us my friend......it takes years!!

my pd is jan 2008 , for me
today=2 more years;

yeah I know, I keep going back to what I was doing in early 2007, why wasting time and not filed earlier A few months of wasting time is going to lead to 2 years of additional wait for me too!

[orangeca]

Bad things stay longer with us my friend......it takes years!!

my pd is jan 2008 , for me
today=2 more years;

Another similar Story from Yahoo finance, all these guys will also come in EB5 eventually!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Top-of...&asset=&ccode=

[donvar]

No person who has earned his money the hard way will spend 500k for a GC. If you can make 500k in a 3rd world country, you are already a king there. So, why would you come here and become a nobody. Also the GC security for kids concept does not fly since you really need to be here for 5 years(at least most of the days per year) to get the citizenship. Make that 7 years if you include the complete process. Besides, that after becoming a citizen of US, you cannot buy property in your own country(true for people of India), and might even have to sell existing property, shares and what not. So, all the run about for what?

Only family i am aware of having gone through the EB5 program earned their money through real estate boom in India, which was more about timing, than any skill or hard work. So, as you can guess, since they got their money by fluke, they are running clueless for the next opportunity, since hard work to earn 500k is something they dont really know.

But many people have made and still making surplus money in real estate boom. They will surely like to utilize this opportunity.

[gcseeker]

Nishant

You nailed it. The majority of the Investors coming in as mentioned in all three articles are wealthy south asians and europeans. There a lot of people who are making big bucks in the booming economies and can afford to plunk down the 500k for a better standard of life.Some days ago there was an article about the red hot real estate market in certain neighbourhoods of the bay area where houses are being bought as investments by rich south asians from abroad.The phenomenon is the same.

http://www.insidebayarea.com/top-sto...548?source=rss

If people can plunk down 500K for a home half way across the world simply as an investment without worrying about risk in a badly bruised market ...they can easily use the same cash to use the gc for an better quality of life.

quote from the article --

""Your real-estate slump makes this a great time for us to buy," said Cathy Li, a stay-at-home mother from Guangzhou, China. Along with her husband, who "works for the government," she bought a $500,000 single-family home in Fremont last year as an investment property. "I think its value will be way up in five years, so I'm telling all my friends this is the time to find good deals in Silicon Valley."

I do not beleive the numbers will surge significantly though they might increase slightly. There have been press articles about using the EB-5 to lift sagging neighbourhoods but nothing much has materialized. The noise coming from USCIS is just window dressing to please their bosses by showcasing it as job spinners.Same with the EB2-Entrepreneur visa category that was recently created.

The type of investors I do see coming in using this route, in current state of economy, is those who want a better quality of life in their eco-system, or those who believe, it's good for their kids future.

[cbpds1]

Any new EB5 folks wont matter much, they need to stand in queue anyways.

We need to know how many such EB3 folks have more than 500k

[Spectator]

If you look at USCIS dashboard for I526 - only 1200 or so have been filed through Jun 2011, same as prior year.

Q,

Those are not the figures I see.

Receipts Oct 10-Jun 11 -- 2,564

That is versus 1,271 receipts in the corresponding period the year before, or 102% higher.

Oct09 --- 165
Nov09 --- 130
Dec09 --- 127
Jan10 --- 118
Feb10 --- 100
Mar10 --- 194
Apr10 --- 140
May10 --- 118
Jun10 --- 179

Total - 1,271


Oct10 --- 200
Nov10 --- 227
Dec10 --- 274
Jan11 --- 254
Feb11 --- 269
Mar11 --- 348
Apr11 --- 355
May11 --- 330
Jun11 --- 307

Total - 2,564


As you say, the pending applications have risen from 677 to 2,611 over 12 months (1,264 in Oct 10).

Completions, however, are only marginally up over the same period the year before (1,303 vs 1,229).

[qesehmk]

Spec

I meant completions. Original post corrected.

Q,

Those are not the figures I see.

Receipts Oct 10-Jun 11 -- 2,564

That is versus 1,271 receipts in the corresponding period the year before, or 102% higher.

Oct09 --- 165
Nov09 --- 130
Dec09 --- 127
Jan10 --- 118
Feb10 --- 100
Mar10 --- 194
Apr10 --- 140
May10 --- 118
Jun10 --- 179

Total - 1,271


Oct10 --- 200
Nov10 --- 227
Dec10 --- 274
Jan11 --- 254
Feb11 --- 269
Mar11 --- 348
Apr11 --- 355
May11 --- 330
Jun11 --- 307

Total - 2,564


As you say, the pending applications have risen from 677 to 2,611 over 12 months (1,264 in Oct 10).

Completions, however, are only marginally up over the same period the year before (1,303 vs 1,229).

[Spectator]

Spec

I meant completions. Original post corrected.

Looking at the USCIS data recently published, we also have data for I-526 approvals in FY 2011 Q1-Q3.

Q1 ------ 191 --- 18.2%
Q2 ------ 264 --- 25.2%
Q3 ------ 593 --- 56.6%
Total - 1,048 -- 100.0%

I don't know how many will turn into visa issuances in FY2011 (2.9 per I-526) - most EB5 Consular Process, if I remember correctly.

[qesehmk]

Read this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44422237...t-leave-china/

In future, I think we shouldnt take EB5 spillover for granted.

[veni001]

Read this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44422237...t-leave-china/

In future, I think we shouldnt take EB5 spillover for granted.

Q,
Agreed, but the increasing demand (EB5) may not sustain for a long period!

[grnwtg]

This might be true in case of China, but probably different case with India.
Example: If you call some friends in India about property buying in USA they tell one thing, property is liablity in USA and Asset in India, same with businesses.
Apart from it India TV channels advertise as if USA is already 2nd world country.

But most positive thing about USA is cheap real estate, if you go to small town, you can get a nice house for 100k with all nice amenites and very private life ( some people like it)

Read this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44422237...t-leave-china/

In future, I think we shouldnt take EB5 spillover for granted.

[qblogfan]

Both India and China are over populated and have limited resources. We should immigrate and flood the western countries.

My only contribution to my home country is: I am not using any resources from my home country and the resources can be used by others.

This might be true in case of China, but probably different case with India.
Example: If you call some friends in India about property buying in USA they tell one thing, property is liablity in USA and Asset in India, same with businesses.
Apart from it India TV channels advertise as if USA is already 2nd world country.

But most positive thing about USA is cheap real estate, if you go to small town, you can get a nice house for 100k with all nice amenites and very private life ( some people like it)

[qesehmk]

QBF its funny you say this because I share similar sentiment but from a slightly different perspective.

In a truly/ideally globalized world the resources will be priced efficiently and legal and state barriers will be equalized across all players and so all world citizens can enjoy fruits of globalizations without having to leave their place. But states are too powerful even today and globalization is patchy. A case in point is Libya where had BP or EXXON Mobil had any stake, Libya wouldn't be attacked. Because there is no such stake, Libya is being attacked and the resources will be looted in no time.

And this situation will continue through our lifetimes. And as such without waiting for globalization to arrive, Indians and Chinese need to go and build alliances all over the world including western world. That is the only way to prevent (rather mitigate) wars over resources. Some people will always want to move to other parts of the world and some people will want to move to India and China. And I think India and China should encourage that.

Specific to India, I think India should welcome migrants from neighboring countries and establish a legal immigration program. Because otherwise India is already seeing migration and those millions of Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and Nepalis are living in the shadows. Besides immigration helps establish bridges with other cultures and economies thus reducing threat of misadventure by other countries.

Anyway ... my rather lenghty 2 cents here!

Both India and China are over populated and have limited resources. We should immigrate and flood the western countries.

My only contribution to my home country is: I am not using any resources from my home country and the resources can be used by others.

[10102007]

Did any of you watch the GOP debate last night on MSNBC? There was an ad in between paid for by the Californians for Population Stabilization. They were calling for slowing down LEGAL immigration.

[qblogfan]

Yes, I agree.

Globalization is a good thing for India and China. We got many good opportunities and people's life is becoming better.

We share a lot of things in common. Both of our countires have long history and great cultures and we were invaded by western countries in the 1800s and 1900s. We have huge populations of more than 1 billion. Now we are catching up with the west. My Indian friends told me people's life in India is becoming much better with the economic development. At the same time, we are working here and we can wire money and transfer more technologies and information back home. It's a good thing. We should encourage more Chinese and Indian people to immigrate to the western countries. 7% limit won't stop us.

QBF its funny you say this because I share similar sentiment but from a slightly different perspective.

In a truly/ideally globalized world the resources will be priced efficiently and legal and state barriers will be equalized across all players and so all world citizens can enjoy fruits of globalizations without having to leave their place. But states are too powerful even today and globalization is patchy. A case in point is Libya where had BP or EXXON Mobil had any stake, Libya wouldn't be attacked. Because there is no such stake, Libya is being attacked and the resources will be looted in no time.

And this situation will continue through our lifetimes. And as such without waiting for globalization to arrive, Indians and Chinese need to go and build alliances all over the world including western world. That is the only way to prevent (rather mitigate) wars over resources. Some people will always want to move to other parts of the world and some people will want to move to India and China. And I think India and China should encourage that.

Specific to India, I think India should welcome migrants from neighboring countries and establish a legal immigration program. Because otherwise India is already seeing migration and those millions of Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and Nepalis are living in the shadows. Besides immigration helps establish bridges with other cultures and economies thus reducing threat of misadventure by other countries.

Anyway ... my rather lenghty 2 cents here!

[qesehmk]

Did any of you watch the GOP debate last night on MSNBC? There was an ad in between paid for by the Californians for Population Stabilization. They were calling for slowing down LEGAL immigration.

They were playing to their bases. But at the end of the day Republicans are slightly friendly towards legal immigration compared to Dems.

Yes, I agree.

Globalization is a good thing for India and China. We got many good opportunities and people's life is becoming better.

We share a lot of things in common. Both of our countires have long history and great cultures and we were invaded by western countries in the 1800s and 1900s. We have huge populations of more than 1 billion. Now we are catching up with the west. My Indian friends told me people's life in India is becoming much better with the economic development. At the same time, we are working here and we can wire money and transfer more technologies and information back home. It's a good thing. We should encourage more Chinese and Indian people to immigrate to the western countries. 7% limit won't stop us.

I think globalization should work for everybody - Indians Chinese and non Indians and non Chinese. Then only it will be meaningful. Life in India is certainly becoming better. Just yesterday there was a news that the life expectancy of women in Bihar (inarguably the most backward state in India) has now increased to a level higher than that of men. I thought that was much more symbolic of how average life in India is becoming better. But even more exciting thing that is happening in India is that people are becoming much more aware about their political rights. But for India it is a long journey ahead albeit a promising one.

[qblogfan]

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/477...skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

Did any of you watch the GOP debate last night on MSNBC? There was an ad in between paid for by the Californians for Population Stabilization. They were calling for slowing down LEGAL immigration.

[cbpds1]

Done, hope something good comes out of this.

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/477...skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

[indiasunil]

Submitted. Lets hope for the best !!..

Done, hope something good comes out of this.

[qblogfan]

sure! if everybody speaks out, our voice will be heard in the white house and congress.

if we keep quiet, these people will continue to exploit us and we will have to wait forever.

A visa recapture bill can solve all our problems and everybody will be happy.

The white house will respond to petitions signed by more than 5000 people. Now we have 7000 people already. Let's make it even more significant!

Submitted. Lets hope for the best !!..

[RRRRRR]

Done, thanks for bringing this on board.

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/477...skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

[valuablehurdle]

Done!!
I think we should intrduce this thread to the immigrationvoice website too.

[jackbrown_890]

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/477...skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

Thanks guys for signing the petition. Wow there was a huge jump in number of people signing the petition today (over 1000)




Q/veni/spector/sugodu---all, please go thru the petition and give me suggestions to modify few of the facts and figures. Because i think some of the stuff is old in this petition (may not be right today). And you guys have better idea about the facts and figures. or if you have any other suggestions to modify and better d petition.

Thanks

[jackbrown_890]

Done!!
I think we should intrduce this thread to the immigrationvoice website too.

Thanks.
I asked Immigrationvoice admin to promote this but they turned my proposal down. Forget about their support, they even removed the post i had on IV with the link to this petition.
But still without their help there has been over 7000 letters/email sent. WOW.

[qesehmk]

Jack
Great job!! Here is my editing of the letter. Spec and others please improve it further so that Jack may incorporate some of those suggestions in his petition.

Dear Mr.President and Members of Congress,

We are legal immigrants living in U. S. A for many years, we are paying taxesand helping the economy grow. We would like to be part of the future growth ofthis country. But today we are held back because of unnatural and unreasonableprocessing delays in the legal immigration system. We feel we have been ignoredfor years by the congress and a president along with the general public andmedia. This country has its foundation based on the immigrants from all aroundthe world, and the immigrants have helped keep foundation strong for decades. Unfortunately,this legal immigrant community is struggling to stay in this country. Wesuggest following steps to ease their pain as well as help the US economy byinfusion of this skilled workforce that is ready to buy new houses and othercapital assets which they defer to buy because of lack of certainty.

1) Remove the artificial cap on EB visas.
An artificial cap of 140,000 EB visas exists today. If an employer provesit that a certain skill is lacking in US economy and accordingly hires foreignperson then it doesn’t make sense to subject that skill to an artificial quota.This skill hurts the employers ability to leverage the employee in a better wayas the employee gains even more expertise, AND it hurts the employee by havingthem wait for upto 10-15 years and thus subjecting them to possible abuse bythe employer. We demand that this limit itself be removed in the interest ofthe employers and immigrants which will certainly provide a boost to theeconomy.

2) RemoveThe per country limits
Per country quotas of 7% exists today. It exacerbates the situation to applicantsfrom high-demand countries like India, China, Mexico and Philippines.Approximately just 10,000 visa numbers are available to India whereas it'sestimated that at least 44% of the applicants may be from India (based on USCISstatistics of around 44% of H1bs being granted to India every year). As spouseand children are counted, considering 4 members per family, on an average only2500 Indian applicants get Green cards in a year. As you can see the numbersare dismal. Meaning, if you are from India, China, Mexico or Philippines, youmay have to wait 10 to 12 years to get your Green Card or more

3) Remove Counting of Family Members towards EB visa Cap.
Today Family members (i.e. dependents of the primary EB applicant) arecounted towards the EB cap. It makes the already paltry and artificial EB capeven smaller allowing approximately only 60K true skilled workers to enter theworkforce every year.

4) Capture Wasted Visas from Prior Years
In the last 17 years 218.000 visas have been wasted because of processingdelays between USCIS and DOS. If those visas were captured and used, the entireEB backlog today can be removed thus reducing a significant pain for employersand immigrants.

We are aware that you are aware of the problems but there has not been anyaction taken from the congress or president to help us. Below are fewsuggestions from us, and we request you consider directing congress to act onthem as soon as possible so that we can contribute even better to the growthand prosperity of this country.

Thank you

Thanks guys for signing the petition. Wow there was a huge jump in number of people signing the petition today (over 1000)




Q/veni/spector/sugodu---all, please go thru the petition and give me suggestions to modify few of the facts and figures. Because i think some of the stuff is old in this petition (may not be right today). And you guys have better idea about the facts and figures. or if you have any other suggestions to modify and better d petition.

Thanks