EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

That seems to be the truth.

I still have a lingering doubt that the situation may be even worse. Before continuing, I will say that the error margin in calculating numbers is large enough to make the following completely inaccurate. I am just throwing out my worst thoughts.

Originally, I had thought that CO might have allowed approval of all EB2-IC cases to the Cut Off Date and pushed a number of EB1/EB2-ROW-MP cases into FY2012. The August consumption makes me doubt that scenario.

At the end of August, EB1 appears to have consumed c. 26.2k and EB2-ROW-MP c. 27.8k.

If we consider that EB5 will consume 4k, then consumption by EB1/EB2-ROW-MP/EB5 to the end of August is 58k out of 84.4k available for the year.

That leaves 26.4k spillover and with the 5.6k EB2-IC allocation, 32k SOFAD at the end of August.

We are perhaps expecting at least 12k EB1/EB2-ROW-MP approvals in August/September. In August, consumption by EB1/EB2-ROW-MP was c. 7.8k.

If we allow a further 4.2k in September, then available SOFAD drops to 27.8k.

That is not enough to cover the number of visas needed for approval of all cases to the 15APR07 Cut Off Date announced in the August VB and unchanged in the September VB, whatever level of Porting/PWMB approvals are added on top.

The conclusion would be that FY2012 will not start with 8k EB2-IC demand (as shown in the September Demand Data), but a figure somewhat higher than that.

If that is the case, the outlook for EB2-IC in FY2012 becomes even bleaker.

I will be very interested to see the October Demand Data, which should show the remaining numbers estimated going into FY2012. Will CO be brave enough to show an increase - I'm not sure. If it does, we can expect a note about it in the VB.

If the numbers do increase, even EB2-C is unlikely to move in the October VB. In the worst case, EB2-I might retrogress, although I don't think that will happen.

PS Q, Welcome back from the jungle!

Spec thanks for your analysis and thoughts. Aug saw a huge acceleration in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals pretty much in line with the clearance rate of the I140 backlog. The figures speak for themselves.

EB2 ROW
========
Aug 2011 - 68
Aug 2010 - 44

EB1
===
Aug 2011 = 37
Aug 2010 = 18

Looking at the ROW and EB1 figures looks like both definitely consumed their regular monthly allocations. I think this year will see huge optimization and speeding up of I140 backlog, September should see even more acceleration in I140 as the resources are virtually free from approving EB2 I/C I485 cases this time. Now another interesting thing to note is that the 485 process is well optimized PWMB cases those who applied in July are all consistently seeing approvals. From SOFAD considerations Q1 trend will hold the key if the consumption of EB2 ROW and EB1 continues at this kind of rate then Q1 may not generate any SOFAD at all. I would tend to agree more with your SOFAD figure of 32K, looks like everyone before 15-APR-20-07 should see approvals since even the PWMB's are being approved. September won't be adding any EB2 I/C PWMB's anyway. I believe more than anything any movement even by 1 week for China will be a good indicator. If China dates do not move then the scenario of unapproved cases before 15-APR may hold true and China does not have significant porting but in essence 250 per month is a very small number so nothing can be said for sure, we can be sure however if China moves by 2 weeks which can match their inventory for later half of April if this holds true then the agencies did a perfect job in setting the cutoff dates.

[Spectator]

Spec thanks for your analysis and thoughts. Aug saw a huge acceleration in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals pretty much in line with the clearance rate of the I140 backlog. The figures speak for themselves.

EB2 ROW
========
Aug 2011 - 68
Aug 2010 - 44

EB1
===
Aug 2011 = 37
Aug 2010 = 18

Looking at the ROW and EB1 figures looks like both definitely consumed their regular monthly allocations. I think this year will see huge optimization and speeding up of I140 backlog, September should see even more acceleration in I140 as the resources are virtually free from approving EB2 I/C I485 cases this time. Now another interesting thing to note is that the 485 process is well optimized PWMB cases those who applied in July are all consistently seeing approvals. From SOFAD considerations Q1 trend will hold the key if the consumption of EB2 ROW and EB1 continues at this kind of rate then Q1 may not generate any SOFAD at all. I would tend to agree more with your SOFAD figure of 32K, looks like everyone before 15-APR-20-07 should see approvals since even the PWMB's are being approved. September won't be adding any EB2 I/C PWMB's anyway. I believe more than anything any movement even by 1 week for China will be a good indicator. If China dates do not move then the scenario of unapproved cases before 15-APR may hold true and China does not have significant porting but in essence 250 per month is a very small number so nothing can be said for sure, we can be sure however if China moves by 2 weeks which can match their inventory for later half of April if this holds true then the agencies did a perfect job in setting the cutoff dates.

Teddy,

Thanks for your thoughts.

It is definitely a wait and see scenario.

I agree that even PWMB who were able to file in July have seen approvals, which makes the danger to available numbers even greater.

I would point out that the 32k SOFAD I mentioned is as at the end of August. For that amount to remain, we would need to see no more EB1/EB2-ROW-MP approvals in September.

That is my worry, although I will stress again that the error margin is high enough to account for that, which is why i gave a pretty big health warning at the beginning.

As a PS, I saw that CM at us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com also posted something their lawyer said. As with all lawyer statements, it needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt - even CM gives a big warning about it.

CM on September 2,2011

So Hurricane Irene is long gone and we are back up and running.

Here is the information on quick chat that I had with our lawyer friend. As per his info - “EB2-IC with PD post December 2006, who are still not pre-adjudicated or our PWMBs should expect less approval for this fiscal Year. Most of the visa numbers available are close to be exhausted by EB1/EB2-ROW, EB3 approvals, and other remaining is expected to be used by EB2-IC strictly based on Priority Date. Any recent porting cases with old PD will see quick approvals and PD upto December 2006 will see approvals in order of PD depending upon visa numbers available. USCIS is currently working to inform DOS on prorated number of visas request that can be used and total demand post December 2006 that still needs to be catered. Based on available numbers, October VB will stay put or retrogress. Goal for USCIS is reduce oldest EB2-IC backlog as much as possible"

CM- The information presented here in should be taken at your own discretion. I have no other way of rationalizing this. Time will tell. Lately, his information has been pretty accurate. Good Luck
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...edictions.html

[sidd21]

Q's/Gurus..URGENT ADVICE NEEDED!!!!

Little Background about my case:
MY i-485 application ( where I'm Primary is in appeals due to i-140 denial).....
My Wife became Current in AUGust ( she is primary and her i-140 is approved and i'm dependant).

For My wife's application , we HAD FP done and based on advise we asked the congressman to check the status... They got back to us saying that since my case is in appeals... my wife files is also being sent to Appeals....i feel sick in my stomach as the drama never ends(I feel like crying as i type this)........ I thought that since both are application are different, they will not be connected.

SO will this mess will it cause more delays in getting approvals?... is there anything i can do to stop the delay

[whereismygclost]

This is CM's statement from his blog which Spectator is referring to. I hope it is okay to post the same.
"Here is the information on quick chat that I had with our lawyer friend. As per his info - “EB2-IC with PD post December 2006, who are still not pre-adjudicated or our PWMBs should expect less approval for this fiscal Year. Most of the visa numbers available are close to be exhausted by EB1/EB2-ROW, EB3 approvals, and other remaining is expected to be used by EB2-IC strictly based on Priority Date. Any recent porting cases with old PD will see quick approvals and PD upto December 2006 will see approvals in order of PD depending upon visa numbers available. USCIS is currently working to inform DOS on prorated number of visas request that can be used and total demand post December 2006 that still needs to be catered. Based on available numbers, October VB will stay put or retrogress. Goal for USCIS is reduce oldest EB2-IC backlog as much as possible"

CM- The information presented here in should be taken at your own discretion. I have no other way of rationalizing this. Time will tell. Lately, his information has been pretty accurate. Good Luck."

[qesehmk]

Sid

It surely is discomforting. Worst case is the appeal is denied and they evaluate wifes 140. But denying wife's 140 is going to be tough unless they detect fraud - which is very difficult since fraud would implicate employer more than the beneficiary.

So 99.99% your wife's case will move ahead and should get GC eventually. I guess you can work through congressman to move the case. You can also take infopass to understand what are they doing with those cases right now. In fact you can also call USCIS and just talk with them about your cases. Once your case is current they do talk gently and professionally - just start by saying your case is out of normal processing times (I am assuming you guys filed 485s in 2007 fiasco).

Q's/Gurus..URGENT ADVICE NEEDED!!!!

Little Background about my case:
MY i-485 application ( where I'm Primary is in appeals due to i-140 denial).....
My Wife became Current in AUGust ( she is primary and her i-140 is approved and i'm dependant).

For My wife's application , we HAD FP done and based on advise we asked the congressman to check the status... They got back to us saying that since my case is in appeals... my wife files is also being sent to Appeals....i feel sick in my stomach as the drama never ends(I feel like crying as i type this)........ I thought that since both are application are different, they will not be connected.

SO will this mess will it cause more delays in getting approvals?... is there anything i can do to stop the delay

[nishant2200]

Teddy, I agree with you, especially the EB2-C indicator.

I believe surely the intention of Visa office is to hold the line at 15-April-2007. They could have very well retrogressed in September Bulletin itself if it was not so.

It will really require the worst case, pointed out by Spec also on these lines in posts earlier, to "force" the DOS to retrogress.

I have heard of cases wherein the beneficiaries are repeatedly informed that your case is waiting for a visa number, even when current, when the pace slows down, so that is a valid reason for them to say to beneficiaries.

Now suppose they go back, have to go back, they have tested the waters till 15-April-2007 and many lucky ones would have got in already, including PWMB. So the next jump in the Q3/Q4 should be able to compensate easily for this backwards movement, which I don't think will be past December 2006, especially judging from CM's post mentioned here by Spec and others. Although I agree that mentally and emotionally, it's a bit of a hurt.

Let's see demand data next.

And of course, the small 0.1% chance that CO decides to intake inventory in October itself, with a strict disclaimer that the movement is solely to intake inventory and anyone from 15-April-2007 onwards will not be getting approved, per a deal worked out with USCIS. My dream, since the 0.1% becomes 0 then on, until Q3

Spec thanks for your analysis and thoughts. Aug saw a huge acceleration in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals pretty much in line with the clearance rate of the I140 backlog. The figures speak for themselves.

EB2 ROW
========
Aug 2011 - 68
Aug 2010 - 44

EB1
===
Aug 2011 = 37
Aug 2010 = 18

Looking at the ROW and EB1 figures looks like both definitely consumed their regular monthly allocations. I think this year will see huge optimization and speeding up of I140 backlog, September should see even more acceleration in I140 as the resources are virtually free from approving EB2 I/C I485 cases this time. Now another interesting thing to note is that the 485 process is well optimized PWMB cases those who applied in July are all consistently seeing approvals. From SOFAD considerations Q1 trend will hold the key if the consumption of EB2 ROW and EB1 continues at this kind of rate then Q1 may not generate any SOFAD at all. I would tend to agree more with your SOFAD figure of 32K, looks like everyone before 15-APR-20-07 should see approvals since even the PWMB's are being approved. September won't be adding any EB2 I/C PWMB's anyway. I believe more than anything any movement even by 1 week for China will be a good indicator. If China dates do not move then the scenario of unapproved cases before 15-APR may hold true and China does not have significant porting but in essence 250 per month is a very small number so nothing can be said for sure, we can be sure however if China moves by 2 weeks which can match their inventory for later half of April if this holds true then the agencies did a perfect job in setting the cutoff dates.

[cbpds1]

I do think the dates will retrogress as I have a friend with PD Jan 2007 who has not got the GC yet. Retrogress for sure as much as I dont like it happening.

[Gclongwait]

This is CM's statement from his blog which Spectator is referring to. I hope it is okay to post the same.
"Here is the information on quick chat that I had with our lawyer friend. As per his info - “EB2-IC with PD post December 2006, who are still not pre-adjudicated or our PWMBs should expect less approval for this fiscal Year. Most of the visa numbers available are close to be exhausted by EB1/EB2-ROW, EB3 approvals, and other remaining is expected to be used by EB2-IC strictly based on Priority Date. Any recent porting cases with old PD will see quick approvals and PD upto December 2006 will see approvals in order of PD depending upon visa numbers available. USCIS is currently working to inform DOS on prorated number of visas request that can be used and total demand post December 2006 that still needs to be catered. Based on available numbers, October VB will stay put or retrogress. Goal for USCIS is reduce oldest EB2-IC backlog as much as possible"

CM- The information presented here in should be taken at your own discretion. I have no other way of rationalizing this. Time will tell. Lately, his information has been pretty accurate. Good Luck."

Not sure what the big deal about this is. He is specifically referring to non preadjudicated or PWMB between Jan 2007 and April 15 2007. Per our calculation this is not a large number anyways (1000-2000). If they were not pre-adjudicated then it could also mean RFE etc due to which these people are not ready to be approved, please note they filed only 1-2 months ago (July/Aug bulletin) so it will only be 2/3 months since filing before end of FY which is not enough for all I485 to get processed. This is exactly the reason why it is necessary to do BTM and preadjudicate. If this is the case I do expect higher EB3 movement and approvals.

[leo07]

one is a very small sample to make a case. do you agree?

cbpds1: "I do think the dates will retrogress as I have a friend with PD Jan 2007 who has not got the GC yet. Retrogress for sure as much as I dont like it happening. "

[qesehmk]

As per the trackitt trend updated recently under FACTS and DATA section - I don't see any reason for retrogression. On the other hand Sep needs to show even more EB1 and EB2ROW approvals to make sure that visas don't go waste.

[dec2007]

My pd is dec 31,2007, eb2i.
Am i correct in interpreting the forum that i might get my date sometime next year.
Really need to take some career and personal decisions soemtime in oct-dec2012.
If there is a chance of getting my date by then, that will be a huge relief.

[suninphx]

Dow and Q's blog is in firm bear grip ....numbers back them solidaly at both places unfortunatly..

[qesehmk]

I think for you it could be 50-50. We will know better when Oct inventory comes out.

My pd is dec 31,2007, eb2i.
Am i correct in interpreting the forum that i might get my date sometime next year.
Really need to take some career and personal decisions soemtime in oct-dec2012.
If there is a chance of getting my date by then, that will be a huge relief.

Dow and Q's blog is in firm bear grip ....numbers back them solidaly at both places unfortunatly..

As much as we try to be objective .... to be honest there is still a lot that we don't know (e.g. current USCIS consumption by country and category) and how much labor and 140 pipeline is actionable. And thirdly something we will never know .... what's the intent that USCIS and DoS are carrying!

On another note - DOW & S&P 500 future earnings may be overstated. But I am layman's layman on that subject... so ignore my ignorance if I am wrong

[suninphx]

As much as we try to be objective .... to be honest there is still a lot that we don't know (e.g. current USCIS consumption by country and category) and how much labor and 140 pipeline is actionable. And thirdly something we will never know .... what's the intent that USCIS and DoS are carrying!

On another note - DOW & S&P 500 future earnings may be overstated. But I am layman's layman on that subject... so ignore my ignorance if I am wrong

Lol- agree completely on data part. Reminds me of our former VP who used to tell clients in the meetings (on project estimations)... ' there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns'

[nishant2200]

My pd is dec 31,2007, eb2i.
Am i correct in interpreting the forum that i might get my date sometime next year.
Really need to take some career and personal decisions soemtime in oct-dec2012.
If there is a chance of getting my date by then, that will be a huge relief.

I think you have a good chance of getting EAD in FY 2012 but not 100%. And GC you will get in FY 2013. This is my current state of thought on this. Everything is subject to change based on as and when new information comes in.

[qblogfan]

Agree, it is not a sure thing. In order to reach 2008 we need at least 30k SOFAD in FY 2012. There are too many variables. Maybe in one day they will tell us there is a sudden new demand or they find some hidden cases, etc.....

I think you have a good chance of getting EAD in FY 2012 but not 100%. And GC you will get in FY 2013. This is my current state of thought on this. Everything is subject to change based on as and when new information comes in.

[cbpds1]

Visa bulletin says "October 2011 (Coming Soon)" but no one is interested, guess

Recession+GC Bulletin=Depression;

[nishant2200]

Visa bulletin says "October 2011 (Coming Soon)" but no one is interested, guess

Recession+GC Bulletin=Depression;

cbpds1, did it change today? interesting. I do have interest in this one especially.

[gchopeful123]

Nobody cares about the Oct bulletin (or the Nov/Dec)...time to chill out for 7 months...

Visa bulletin says "October 2011 (Coming Soon)" but no one is interested, guess

Recession+GC Bulletin=Depression;

[nishant2200]

Nobody cares about the Oct bulletin (or the Nov/Dec)...time to chill out for 7 months...

There will be some interesting stuff to watch out for though. Like the trends of EB1/EB2ROW, 140 backlog reduction, 140 processing times (SYAs...) for SOFAD extrapolation, data reports like the pending 485 inventory report, EB2C movement, and so on.

[leo07]

Right. In a way October VB is important, it kind of sets the tone for the rest of the year. It may very well be that the tone is to "Chill out for 7 months"

[ravisekhar]

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011...een-for-a.html

[murali83]

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011...een-for-a.html

Hmm, with the economy tanking like this, I for one don't expect this to become a trend. No rich guy, however rich he maybe want to put his buck in a sinking tank unless his life in his home country is hopeless. But hey, if he is filthy rich to put money here, then why would his life be bad back home.

[cbpds1]

Bad things stay longer with us my friend......it takes years!!

my pd is jan 2008 , for me
today=2 more years;

cbpds1, did it change today? interesting. I do have interest in this one especially.

[tanu_75]

Hmm, with the economy tanking like this, I for one don't expect this to become a trend. No rich guy, however rich he maybe want to put his buck in a sinking tank unless his life in his home country is hopeless. But hey, if he is filthy rich to put money here, then why would his life be bad back home.

They'll get around the money part, they always do. This will be abused like any other program and in the end it actually will end up doing more harm to the economy than good.