EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qblogfan]

Just now I searched EB1-C forum and found EB1 only takes 2 months to get approval. One guy submitted his application in June 22nd and already got approved! I think they are rushing to use all the visa numbers on EB1 and EB2 ROW. Frankly they could have waited some time on these EB1/EB2 ROW, but they don't want EB2 I&C to use the 12k visas left. They are rushing to use all the 12k on EB1/EB2 ROW. Even with this speed, I suspect some visas may go wasted this year. They are approving EB1/EB2 ROW at SUPER HIGH SPEED!

They control EB2C-I too tightly and we were supposed to move to 7/1/2011 or even later using the 12k visa numbers, but they decided to hold off on EB2 C/I, instead they chose to rush on EB1/EB2 ROW. Apparently they are RUSHING on EB1/EB2 ROW!


Here is one EB1 case they approved: only 2 months!
EB1-a， TSC
140 Received Date 06/22/2011
485 Received Date 06/30/2011
Fingerprint Date 08/16/2011
140 Approval Date 08/24/2011
485 Approval Date 08/24/2011
Green Card Received Date 08/29/2011

Q and other Gurus,

Would it help if we make an appointment with the CIS Ombudsman regarding this issue?

[gcseeker]

Fantastic posts Teddy and Q

Proven beyond doubt that USCIS is on purpose not doing quarterly spillovers. I always beleived strongly (without the benefit of the great number crunching you folks do) that politics and policy are playing an much much bigger role.

1.For me it is no surprise 245-I is causing havoc.There have been articles about Illegal Indian immigration .Latimes had a very good article.This trend continues even now.If you read the article some of the Indians tried to settle in south america during the last decade and then use the porous border to illegally (yes ilegally move ) into the Usa.This trend has been there pre 2001 since families used to move into South america and then illegally immigrate into Usa.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb...dians-20110206

Also with the new intiative announced by the Obama administration please note even without 245-I .Illegals will get the chance to get an EAD.Now if they are Indians as the above article shows.The numbers might not be small and will have to come from the spillover quota.The article talks about few thousands in the last year itself.

2.For me it is also no surprise this nation rewards the illegals more than people who follow the rules. Votebank politics is present very much here too and one of the user's (Gcq) rightly pointed out that Grassley and Obama are buddies ...shaking hands from opposite side of the aisles.Union politics and Anti immigrant rhetoric coupled with the scapegoating syndrome of Corporate america which needs a fall guy will always provide an safe cover for USCIS which has to answer to its political bosses.

This is also the reason 50K visas are given to the diversity lottery from which India and China are excluded. Rep (R) Daryl Issa's bill tried to stop that but did not even get through the judicial sub committee.

3.Teddy and Nishant are also right on the porting .2900 apps coupled with family members will easly give 6K. Also people with 15 yrs experience waiting in line will be frustated enough to ditch the EAD life and get an GC finally.I would not blame them.


I have strongly learnt to keep my sanity intact and my blood pressure in check by making sure ....the most realistic or borderline pessimistic expectation from USCIS is expected. Teddy is absolutely right in Oct 2007 being the mark that might not get breached.The numbers back it up, the politics backs it up, USCIS's behaviour backs it up, the election year backs it up.


I love one quote from Soggadu "aaya to aaya baaki sab maaya" which has helped me maintain my calm .Its the long weekend folks.Have a good one and stay peaceful.

Friends 2 things here. Firstly most of us are aware that South Korea consistently gets more that 2.8K in EB2 because of the definition of retrogressed county being at EB + FB level. For Mexico and Philippines since these countries are classified as retrogressed at EB + FB level their EB utilization is limited to 7% of 140K for EB. Now since these countries do not utilize 2.8K each in EB1 and EB2 in EB3 they are allowed to make up for the deficit. Both these countries have been pulling up 7-8K in EB3 consistently over the last few years. So this is a classic case of the 7% rule hitting the countries that were supposed to benefit by it.
245I is the amnesty for those present illegally before Apr 30 2001. Anyone who could prove that he / she was present before this time illegally (Not Legally) and is not involved in any criminal activity could be eligible for AOS. You can imagine that this demand could be potentially never ending, EB3 - I took 5 years to come out of 2001 and for a major part the PD was magnetically stuck to April 2001. Even now looking at the inventory there is demand from Apr 2001. Additionally Iam not sure if someone claimed that they were in US illegally after Apr 2001 what PD would they have. For EB3 ROW there is a lot of hidden demand at local offices and CP I believe a major part of this could be thanks to 245I people in some cases having later PD's but claiming benefit of that statute. Most of us have nothing against undocumented folks we all understand the American Dream and good quality of life here, however this is a very stark contracts we are being subjected to trial by fire at each and every stage after religiously and rigorously following the law while those who broke the law are being rewarded openly for breaking it, worst thing is that atleast the cap numbers for this should have been separate from the quota that legal people have unfortunately it was mixed up with EB3, so you can imagine how unfair this is and insult to injury.

[qesehmk]

Trackitt trend updated. Pls check http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716 if interested.

I was pleasantly surprised to see YTD consumption coming in at 121 leaving 19K for september across all categories.

[Kanmani]

If it is going to happen, Yes it should be in FY 2013 . Just a hope . We are not activists , I dont expect anyone here to go for hunger strike to achieve our goal in a month's time .

What else we can do as an individual ?

[nishant2200]

That sums it up for me. Well said.

Fantastic posts Teddy and Q

Proven beyond doubt that USCIS is on purpose not doing quarterly spillovers. I always beleived strongly (without the benefit of the great number crunching you folks do) that politics and policy are playing an much much bigger role.

1.For me it is no surprise 245-I is causing havoc.There have been articles about Illegal Indian immigration .Latimes had a very good article.This trend continues even now.If you read the article some of the Indians tried to settle in south america during the last decade and then use the porous border to illegally (yes ilegally move ) into the Usa.This trend has been there pre 2001 since families used to move into South america and then illegally immigrate into Usa.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb...dians-20110206

Also with the new intiative announced by the Obama administration please note even without 245-I .Illegals will get the chance to get an EAD.Now if they are Indians as the above article shows.The numbers might not be small and will have to come from the spillover quota.The article talks about few thousands in the last year itself.

2.For me it is also no surprise this nation rewards the illegals more than people who follow the rules. Votebank politics is present very much here too and one of the user's (Gcq) rightly pointed out that Grassley and Obama are buddies ...shaking hands from opposite side of the aisles.Union politics and Anti immigrant rhetoric coupled with the scapegoating syndrome of Corporate america which needs a fall guy will always provide an safe cover for USCIS which has to answer to its political bosses.

This is also the reason 50K visas are given to the diversity lottery from which India and China are excluded. Rep (R) Daryl Issa's bill tried to stop that but did not even get through the judicial sub committee.

3.Teddy and Nishant are also right on the porting .2900 apps coupled with family members will easly give 6K. Also people with 15 yrs experience waiting in line will be frustated enough to ditch the EAD life and get an GC finally.I would not blame them.


I have strongly learnt to keep my sanity intact and my blood pressure in check by making sure ....the most realistic or borderline pessimistic expectation from USCIS is expected. Teddy is absolutely right in Oct 2007 being the mark that might not get breached.The numbers back it up, the politics backs it up, USCIS's behaviour backs it up, the election year backs it up.


I love one quote from Soggadu "aaya to aaya baaki sab maaya" which has helped me maintain my calm .Its the long weekend folks.Have a good one and stay peaceful.

[nishant2200]

Thanks Q. It will be a real shame if 3k go waste. I hope they can do some game in that case.

Trackitt trend updated. Pls check http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716 if interested.

I was pleasantly surprised to see YTD consumption coming in at 121 leaving 19K for september across all categories.

[meso129]

USCIS Employment Benefits Request Statistics for FY 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf

USCIS I-140 Approval Statistics by EB Class and Country of Origin (Calendar Year 2008-2011)

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf


What doesn't make sense is the number of I-140 approved from 2008 to 2011 Maybe someone has a better explaination

[rdsingh79]

This data is for consular-processed I-140s.

USCIS Employment Benefits Request Statistics for FY 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf

USCIS I-140 Approval Statistics by EB Class and Country of Origin (Calendar Year 2008-2011)

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf


What doesn't make sense is the number of I-140 approved from 2008 to 2011 Maybe someone has a better explaination

[qesehmk]

The first report seems right. The second one is clearly messed up.

USCIS Employment Benefits Request Statistics for FY 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf

USCIS I-140 Approval Statistics by EB Class and Country of Origin (Calendar Year 2008-2011)

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf


What doesn't make sense is the number of I-140 approved from 2008 to 2011 Maybe someone has a better explaination

[mesan123]

According to that report it shows just 372 approved 140 for india and 111 for china for EB2 catogery....that looks very unrelastic...how did they come up with that account...if that is correct...shuld not they make the dates current once date moves 15-Aug-2007

I hope when CO asks USCIS, hey, need to move past 15-Aug-2007, how many 140s, need to decide based on that, and they send this report

[veni001]

The first report seems right. The second one is clearly messed up.

Q,
I-140 data is for those requested for CP.

"This quarterly report shows Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker performance data for consular-processed I-140s and does not include any associated dependents. The number of cases approved are displayed by class and beneficiary country of birth."

Dashboard data shows all.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Veni.
That explains it.

Alright folks .... adios from my space station!! Going in the jungles for a few days Have a great weekend!

Q,
I-140 data is for those requested for CP.

Dashboard data shows all.

[mesan123]

Hi,

sorry for placing in wrong thread...but needed answer asap...as i am travelling to india in one week....
I am planning for my visa stamping in chennai and have one doubt while booking the appointment. I am not able to know whether i can apply for renewal catogery or new application

My case is my H1b Visa stamping expired on sep30th2009 and going now for getting H1b stamping.( i am in USA on my H1b i-94 extension)

below is the way they have given details for appointment selection

Are you applying for the same class of visa which is currently valid or has expired within the past 12 months?*

yes or no( we have to choose one of this)


VISA RENEWAL CATEGORY INFORMATION - Please Read Carefully.

Visa renewal appointments are available to visa applicants who:

Have the same class of U.S. visa which is still valid or that has expired less than 12 months from the scheduled date of interview.

Wish to apply for the same visa class (e.g. had an H1 work visa, now applying again for an H1 work visa)
Are Indian nationals (hold Indian passports)
Are resident in the New Delhi, Chennai or Mumbai consular districts (Applicants attending the interview at the U.S. Consulates in Kolkata and Hyderabad do not have an option to select the option for visa renewal. They may opt for a regular interview).

The following applicants do NOT qualify for appointments in the visa renewal category:
Applicants who have never had a US visa.

Applicants who have a U.S. visa that expired more than 12 months ago.
Applicants whose last valid visa has been either cancelled or revoked.
Applicants applying for a different visa class (e.g. had a F1 student visa, now applying for a H1 work visa).
Non Indian passport holders
Applicants applying at the U.S. Consulates in Kolkata and Hyderabad.
First time H4 or L2 applicants over 18 years of age. (If you have recently married an H1b or L1 visa holder but have never had a visa interview for an H4 visa or L2 visa, you may not schedule in the renewal category.)
Applicants applying for more than one visa at the same time (e.g. F and B1/B2).
Applicants applying for entertainment/performance visas(P3 category).
Applicants applying for unskilled worker visas (H2b category).
Applicants who have lost their previous passports that had the valid / expired US visa.


CAN ANYONE OF YOU PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHICH OPTION I SHULD CHOOSE...if anyone of you went for stamping in last few months please share your expericne as well
( the problem is my lawyer is in vacation , my company is not H1b based(only 8-10% of total employees or on h1b) so my HR is not 100% sure which option i shuld choose

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi,

sorry for placing in wrong thread...but needed answer asap...as i am travelling to india in one week....
I am planning for my visa stamping in chennai and have one doubt while booking the appointment. I am not able to know whether i can apply for renewal catogery or new application

My case is my H1b Visa stamping expired on sep30th2009 and going now for getting H1b stamping.( i am in USA on my H1b i-94 extension)

below is the way they have given details for appointment selection

Are you applying for the same class of visa which is currently valid or has expired within the past 12 months?*

yes or no( we have to choose one of this)


VISA RENEWAL CATEGORY INFORMATION - Please Read Carefully.

Visa renewal appointments are available to visa applicants who:

Have the same class of U.S. visa which is still valid or that has expired less than 12 months from the scheduled date of interview.

Wish to apply for the same visa class (e.g. had an H1 work visa, now applying again for an H1 work visa)
Are Indian nationals (hold Indian passports)
Are resident in the New Delhi, Chennai or Mumbai consular districts (Applicants attending the interview at the U.S. Consulates in Kolkata and Hyderabad do not have an option to select the option for visa renewal. They may opt for a regular interview).

The following applicants do NOT qualify for appointments in the visa renewal category:
Applicants who have never had a US visa.

Applicants who have a U.S. visa that expired more than 12 months ago.
Applicants whose last valid visa has been either cancelled or revoked.
Applicants applying for a different visa class (e.g. had a F1 student visa, now applying for a H1 work visa).
Non Indian passport holders
Applicants applying at the U.S. Consulates in Kolkata and Hyderabad.
First time H4 or L2 applicants over 18 years of age. (If you have recently married an H1b or L1 visa holder but have never had a visa interview for an H4 visa or L2 visa, you may not schedule in the renewal category.)
Applicants applying for more than one visa at the same time (e.g. F and B1/B2).
Applicants applying for entertainment/performance visas(P3 category).
Applicants applying for unskilled worker visas (H2b category).
Applicants who have lost their previous passports that had the valid / expired US visa.


CAN ANYONE OF YOU PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHICH OPTION I SHULD CHOOSE...if anyone of you went for stamping in last few months please share your expericne as well
( the problem is my lawyer is in vacation , my company is not H1b based(only 8-10% of total employees or on h1b) so my HR is not 100% sure which option i shuld choose

Refer to the following point - Have the same class of U.S. visa which is still valid or that has expired less than 12 months from the scheduled date of interview.

Based on this your case is that of a new applicant as your visa expired in Sep 2009 which is more than a year from now or the prospective interview date.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends the October VB is almost round the corner. EB2 China may move by 2 weeks as their inventory for April is ~ 250. EB2 India will mostly remain static for some time, good luck to all.

[veni001]

Friends the October VB is almost round the corner. EB2 China may move by 2 weeks as their inventory for April is ~ 250. EB2 India will mostly remain static for some time, good luck to all.

Teddy,
Agree, EB2I can skip checking next 6 visa bulletins .

[mesan123]

Thank you Teddy

Refer to the following point - Have the same class of U.S. visa which is still valid or that has expired less than 12 months from the scheduled date of interview.

Based on this your case is that of a new applicant as your visa expired in Sep 2009 which is more than a year from now or the prospective interview date.

[qesehmk]

That's brutal but true.

Teddy,
Agree, EB2I can skip checking next 6 visa bulletins .

[nishant2200]

Teddy,
Agree, EB2I can skip checking next 6 visa bulletins .

I agree, in a way though, the later gates open may turn out timing wise good for some. Let me explain. Suppose a month already in Q3, they come to extrapolation of say 20k SO possibly. If they have not moved dates till then, they would be blind to PWMB hidden demand, also they would be on the threshold of around 4-5 months processing times expectancy of I-485. So they could then potentially move dates farther then actually would rest at, enabling more people to get EADs.

[qblogfan]

Yes, it is very likely we will see minimal or no movement before Q3.

We contacted Mr.CO and asked him to do the quarter spillover and make the movement evenly distributed through the four quarters, but he said that the accumulated spillover numbers will be compensated in Q3 and Q4. What he said means two things:

1. It means we can skip all the Visa Bulletins from September to the next April or May. It is very brutal, but it is what CO is doing.
2. A guy with PD 4/14/2007 can get GC almost nine or ten months earlier than a guy with PD 4/16/2007. Is it a fair and humane system?

According to the law, the movement was supposed to appear in Dec, March, June and September. But under CO's personal "law", we will not be able to see any movement until Q3, and the movement is concentrated from May to September.

In Q1 and Q2 of FY 2011, there were around 10k spillover per quarter, but these numbers were not released until May 2011.

I think a steady continuous movement in four quarters is better than sudden movement in late Q3 and Q4.

The whole law is screwed and distored by CO.

Friends the October VB is almost round the corner. EB2 China may move by 2 weeks as their inventory for April is ~ 250. EB2 India will mostly remain static for some time, good luck to all.

[qblogfan]

Sorry to provide some upsetting thoughts:

I would not be too confident about the "good things" coming out of this.

Mr.CO can do anything he likes and we will not know how he will handle this in the next summer. It's also possible that he may use spillover to solve the EB3 backlog by postponing the admission of new EB2 applicants. EB3 backlog is much worse than EB2 and it does not look good on his book. He may try to balance EB2 and EB3 by using spillover on EB3 next year.

Although I am still hoping he can admit more EB2 next year, you never know what this guy will do. I have followed his comments and actions for many years and he has screwed EB2 C&I for many times.

I agree, in a way though, the later gates open may turn out timing wise good for some. Let me explain. Suppose a month already in Q3, they come to extrapolation of say 20k SO possibly. If they have not moved dates till then, they would be blind to PWMB hidden demand, also they would be on the threshold of around 4-5 months processing times expectancy of I-485. So they could then potentially move dates farther then actually would rest at, enabling more people to get EADs.

[qesehmk]

qbf

I understand you have some strong opinions about CO - the person and the job he is doing. We don't tell anyone here what to speak and what not to.

But overall the visa bulletin dates are driven by policy and both Visa Office and USCIS (lately). One person may have some influence on it but I doubt it. Criticizing or targeting in a personal manner will not help in any way.

Dont mean to sermon you or anything, but you clearly feel strongly about it and I dont want you to go into a loop over "CO did this"-kind-of-mentality.

Yes, it is very likely we will see minimal or no movement before Q3.

We contacted Mr.CO and asked him to do the quarter spillover and make the movement evenly distributed through the four quarters, but he said that the accumulated spillover numbers will be compensated in Q3 and Q4. What he said means two things:

1. It means we can skip all the Visa Bulletins from September to the next April or May. It is very brutal, but it is what CO is doing.
2. A guy with PD 4/14/2007 can get GC almost nine or ten months earlier than a guy with PD 4/16/2007. Is it a fair and humane system?

According to the law, the movement was supposed to appear in Dec, March, June and September. But under CO's personal "law", we will not be able to see any movement until Q3, and the movement is concentrated from May to September.

In Q1 and Q2 of FY 2011, there were around 10k spillover per quarter, but these numbers were not released until May 2011.

I think a steady continuous movement in four quarters is better than sudden movement in late Q3 and Q4.

The whole law is screwed and distored by CO.

Sorry to provide some upsetting thoughts:

I would not be too confident about the "good things" coming out of this.

Mr.CO can do anything he likes and we will not know how he will handle this in the next summer. It's also possible that he may use spillover to solve the EB3 backlog by postponing the admission of new EB2 applicants. EB3 backlog is much worse than EB2 and it does not look good on his book. He may try to balance EB2 and EB3 by using spillover on EB3 next year.

Although I am still hoping he can admit more EB2 next year, you never know what this guy will do. I have followed his comments and actions for many years and he has screwed EB2 C&I for many times.

[TheTexan]

Q,

You beat me to this. I seriously doubt that CO can do whatever he wants. He must be answerable to someone. We should not let emotions cloud the analytical process. Just my 2 cents.

[Spectator]

Friends the October VB is almost round the corner. EB2 China may move by 2 weeks as their inventory for April is ~ 250. EB2 India will mostly remain static for some time, good luck to all.

Teddy,

That seems to be the truth.

I still have a lingering doubt that the situation may be even worse. Before continuing, I will say that the error margin in calculating numbers is large enough to make the following completely inaccurate. I am just throwing out my worst thoughts.

Originally, I had thought that CO might have allowed approval of all EB2-IC cases to the Cut Off Date and pushed a number of EB1/EB2-ROW-MP cases into FY2012. The August consumption makes me doubt that scenario.

At the end of August, EB1 appears to have consumed c. 26.2k and EB2-ROW-MP c. 27.8k.

If we consider that EB5 will consume 4k, then consumption by EB1/EB2-ROW-MP/EB5 to the end of August is 58k out of 84.4k available for the year.

That leaves 26.4k spillover and with the 5.6k EB2-IC allocation, 32k SOFAD at the end of August.

We are perhaps expecting at least 12k EB1/EB2-ROW-MP approvals in August/September. In August, consumption by EB1/EB2-ROW-MP was c. 7.8k.

If we allow a further 4.2k in September, then available SOFAD drops to 27.8k.

That is not enough to cover the number of visas needed for approval of all cases to the 15APR07 Cut Off Date announced in the August VB and unchanged in the September VB, whatever level of Porting/PWMB approvals are added on top.

The conclusion would be that FY2012 will not start with 8k EB2-IC demand (as shown in the September Demand Data), but a figure somewhat higher than that.

If that is the case, the outlook for EB2-IC in FY2012 becomes even bleaker.

I will be very interested to see the October Demand Data, which should show the remaining numbers estimated going into FY2012. Will CO be brave enough to show an increase - I'm not sure. If it does, we can expect a note about it in the VB.

If the numbers do increase, even EB2-C is unlikely to move in the October VB. In the worst case, EB2-I might retrogress, although I don't think that will happen.

PS Q, Welcome back from the jungle!

[qesehmk]

As voted last month, we donated to Hrudaya, $100 today. For more info and suggestions pls see
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=8139#post8139