EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

Spec, thanks for reply.

about your question, this is link to original good old July 2007 visa bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_3258.html

see Section E:

E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.

Nishant,

Thanks for the link.

It was to try to get USCIS to complete more cases (generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases) and to avoid wastage of visas (to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit) by allowing DOS to allocate visas to as many CP cases as possible. Generating an Inventory was merely a by-product of not wasting visas.

Also, this was July, the first month of Q4, when limitations are removed. After the event, we know what a disaster that was, so it seems unlikely to be repeated.

A couple of things are different.

DOS now know how many cases USCIS have and USCIS production rates have been sufficient not to waste visas since.

Coming to Q's point, the problem is that there are probably anywhere between 8-18k cases that could be approved if the dates moved forward. The absolute minimum is the 8k demand left at the end of August, which is more than the initial limit.

That means DOS cannot move the date beyond August 15, 2007 until there are enough visas available to cover that date and then some more. By the time that decision can be made, at least 6 months will have elapsed and we can add on another 2k Porting cases. That means more than 10k visas would be needed. If we start with 5.6k visas initially, that means more than 4.4k need to be available to move beyond the backlog.

If that was done in the first month of Q3 (April 2012), then more than 5.4k additional visas would need to be announced. To also account for PWMB in that period would need more than 9k visas to be announced.

To move to October 2007 would need 21k visas to be announced. Given that we might expect quite strong performance from EB1 and EB2-non IC initially, then even 9k would be a very good result.

That really means any substantial movement would need to wait to July 2012, if the law is to be followed.

I agree with you that DOS may not necessarily follow the law religiously. That will possibly create a problem.

There is an EB universe beyond EB2-IC. Others will be looking to make sure that DOS do follow the law.

Whilst no-one in this forum is guilty of this, a certain section of EB2-I in other forums have delighted in rubbing EB3 noses in the dirt about how the revised spillover interpretation is just following the law.

If following the law also has a deleterious effect on EB2 at some point, then EB3 will just say "what is sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander" and that the law cannot be bent or broken to benefit a particular group.

[qesehmk]

Spec,

we can't fault EB2IC for being happy about the changed spillover interpretation, can we? After all they too have been waiting upto a decade. EB3ROW is going to have timelines similar to EB2IC. But the worst affected group is EB3IC. I would agree though that this is still an overall unfortunate situation.

But coming back to a key point that I have tried to make - unsuccessfully it seems - is that allocation is something that law does address. Visa dates movement is a DoS privilege and they can do so as per they please. Law - per say - doesn't tie their hands as far as visa dates movement is concerned.

Nishant,

Thanks for the link.

It was to try to get USCIS to complete more cases (generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases) and to avoid wastage of visas (to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit) by allowing DOS to allocate visas to as many CP cases as possible. Generating an Inventory was merely a by-product of not wasting visas.

Also, this was July, the first month of Q4, when limitations are removed. After the event, we know what a disaster that was, so it seems unlikely to be repeated.

A couple of things are different.

DOS now know how many cases USCIS have and USCIS production rates have been sufficient not to waste visas since.

Coming to Q's point, the problem is that there are probably anywhere between 8-18k cases that could be approved if the dates moved forward. The absolute minimum is the 8k demand left at the end of August, which is more than the initial limit.

That means DOS cannot move the date beyond August 15, 2007 until there are enough visas available to cover that date and then some more. By the time that decision can be made, at least 6 months will have elapsed and we can add on another 2k Porting cases. That means more than 10k visas would be needed. If we start with 5.6k visas initially, that means more than 4.4k need to be available to move beyond the backlog.

If that was done in the first month of Q3 (April 2012), then more than 5.4k additional visas would need to be announced. To also account for PWMB in that period would need more than 9k visas to be announced.

To move to October 2007 would need 21k visas to be announced. Given that we might expect quite strong performance from EB1 and EB2-non IC initially, then even 9k would be a very good result.

That really means any substantial movement would need to wait to July 2012, if the law is to be followed.

I agree with you that DOS may not necessarily follow the law religiously. That will possibly create a problem.

There is an EB universe beyond EB2-IC. Others will be looking to make sure that DOS do follow the law.

Whilst no-one in this forum is guilty of this, a certain section of EB2-I in other forums have delighted in rubbing EB3 noses in the dirt about how the revised spillover interpretation is just following the law.

If following the law also has a deleterious effect on EB2 at some point, then EB3 will just say "what is sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander" and that the law cannot be bent or broken to benefit a particular group.

[Spectator]

Spec,

we can't fault EB2IC for being happy about the changed spillover interpretation, can we? After all they too have been waiting upto a decade. EB3ROW is going to have timelines similar to EB2IC. But the worst affected group is EB3IC. I would agree though that this is still an overall unfortunate situation.

But coming back to a key point that I have tried to make - unsuccessfully it seems - is that allocation is something that law does address. Visa dates movement is a DoS privilege and they can do so as per they please. Law - per say - doesn't tie their hands as far as visa dates movement is concerned.

Q,

That is not true. The law does address that.

INA 245 (a)(3) says:

(3) an immigrant visa is immediately available to him at the time his application is filed.

That means that there must be sufficient visas to allocate to all applicants with PDs before the Cut Off Date.

Since moving the date to August 15, 2007 means there will be at least 10k (possibly more) applicants already qualified to receive a visa, then at least that number of visas must be available for immediate issue at the time the Cut Off Date is set.

Eventually, much more will qualify within the Cut Off Date, but the important part is there will be that many already qualified to receive a visa immediately.

If that number of visas are not available, the COD can't move to that date. Once they can reach that date, then moving beyond it is relatively easier, since only CP and Porting cases will be immediately qualified to receive a visa.

The law can be bent, knowing that processing times mean there is no possibility of a visa being issued to new applications and that the dates can be retrogressed before they become qualified, but it can't be bent for those numbers already pre-adjudicated up to the end of the current backlog - and that is a considerable number.

I hope that better explains the difficulty.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Look at the 245 (a):
Quote
The status of an alien who was inspected and admitted or paroled into the United States may be adjusted by the Attorney General, in his discretion and under such regulations as he may prescribe,
Unquote

The law could've been mute about discretion. But instead it chose to explicitely state that even if everything else is fulfiled (including date being current) a visa is allocated with "DISCRETION".

Q,

That is not true. The law does address that.

INA 245 (a)(3) says:



That means that there must be sufficient visas to allocate to all applicants with PDs before the Cut Off Date.

[Jitesh]

So what do you think guyz - when will dates start moving for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Spec

Look at the 245 (a):
Quote
The status of an alien who was inspected and admitted or paroled into the United States may be adjusted by the Attorney General, in his discretion and under such regulations as he may prescribe,
Unquote

The law could've been mute about discretion. But instead it chose to explicitely state that even if everything else is fulfiled (including date being current) a visa is allocated with "DISCRETION".

Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.

[nishant2200]

Spec, thanks again for detailed response.

Reason I put forth these theories, so that we get intelligent feedback on them. We can summarize our understanding then, and put rest to doubts possibly.

And can't just wait and see what happens too much of a big deal for some.

Now, my takeaway is: If they are able to announce spare visas in May like this year, dates might move to the tipping point. But that will get them PWMB also. Next move can then be only in dying phases of the FY. If no spare visas can be announced early, then anyways it means bad SO and dates move in dying phases will be enough.

People in late 2007, should keep all docs ready, be extremely careful to avoid RFE, if they have any chance of getting GC in next FY. Window if opens might be very small.

Now, if they do realize in dying phases, SO more, EB2IC demand less, processing time left less. Then they should move dates into 2008 to grab CP demand, and also advance EB3 ROW dates. And so we get by-product of inventory again.

And I still think they need a official way to deal with this entire mess to be able to make inventory.

Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.

[Spectator]

Nishant,

I completely agree with your analysis.

[makmohan]

All,

Is there any separate thread or discussions that lists all documents that absolutely need to be ready in order to avoid any RFE in case the dates become current?

Thanks,
M

[mvinayam]

Nishant,

I completely agree with your analysis.

Gurus,

Since the CO was hoping to move the date to July 1 2007 in Sept 2011 Bulletin is there any hope or possibility for the dates to move to July 1st 2007 before the Spill over season or any rough estimate when the dates can move to July 1st for EB2 IC.

Need to make some important career decision so will be better to know how long will be the wait time .

[gcseeker]

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.

So what do you think guyz - when will dates start moving for EB2I?

mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )

Gurus,

Since the CO was hoping to move the date to July 1 2007 in Sept 2011 Bulletin is there any hope or possibility for the dates to move to July 1st 2007 before the Spill over season or any rough estimate when the dates can move to July 1st for EB2 IC.

Need to make some important career decision so will be better to know how long will be the wait time .

[qblogfan]

We have to wait for year after year
I have gone through 5 summers.
I hope the 2012 summer will be the last summer of my GC journey.
It is killing people.

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.




mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )

[gcseeker]

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.

We have to wait for year after year
I have gone through 5 summers.
I hope the 2012 summer will be the last summer of my GC journey.
It is killing people.

[nishant2200]

gcseeker, well said on all counts.

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.




mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.

[nishant2200]

I think what we have is here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-to-file-I485

also do a google search for documents needed to file I-485, you will come across immihelp and path2usa websites among others. Also one should read the form I-485 and its filing instructions.

Of course, first and foremost, if possible, this should be determined from the company lawyer. If you feel lawyer is missing something, or needs some specifics on your situation (like no birth certificate, wrong name in some document etc.), enlighten him politely.

If you need to get any affidavits, documents etc from India, it's never too late to start from right now. Any affidavit, made right now, will be valid in future. You don't need to wait. So that you don't rush at last moment. Remember it's not easy to get this administrative haggling done in India, and in some cases, it might be upto our old parents to run around for us. Better do it early.

All,

Is there any separate thread or discussions that lists all documents that absolutely need to be ready in order to avoid any RFE in case the dates become current?

Thanks,
M

[soggadu]

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your kind words.

I am glad to know you know Laozi. Your words are so impressive!

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.

[qblogfan]

Ni hao! thanks for your kind words.

gcseeker, well said on all counts.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Now you are talking that the bird is not dead..... he is lying down with eyes closed not breathing and cold etc etc... Just acknowledge things for what they are.

Granting LPR is discretionary means that law does NOT require USCIS/DOS to grant LPR even if dates are current.

DoS can legally move dates all over the place and teh law doesn't have a problem with that.

You can ignore this common sense ... and sorry to be persistent and a bit harsh ... but i think you sometimes just can never agree to something contrary to your belief.

Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.

[ssvp22]

Spec

Now you are talking that the bird is not dead..... he is lying down with eyes closed not breathing and cold etc etc... Just acknowledge things for what they are.

Granting LPR is discretionary means that law does NOT require USCIS/DOS to grant LPR even if dates are current.

DoS can legally move dates all over the place and teh law doesn't have a problem with that.

You can ignore this common sense ... and sorry to be persistent and a bit harsh ... but i think you sometimes just can never agree to something contrary to your belief.

Take it easy folks. Either way, the discussion is not going to make the dates move earlier or later. They are what they are.

[gchopeful123]

Hey Soggadu,

Where did you find it? Let me know...i need to get one as well.

Thanks!

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...

[soggadu]

Hey Soggadu,

Where did you find it? Let me know...i need to get one as well.

Thanks!

man...its too hard... got mine from circuit city and they are not selling them any more... but whats happening now a days...

P.S. One of friends saying end its eminent next year and get prepared and all... just wondering if we can get our GC before 12/12/2012... I want to catch it once before it gets dark... MY PRECIOUSSSSS....

[nishant2200]

Take it easy folks. Either way, the discussion is not going to make the dates move earlier or later. They are what they are.

We should not worry. Q and Spec are ok. It's just their passion for the analysis, we mere mortals may sometimes interpret otherwise. I am personally a big fan of them both, as well as Teddy and Veni. And not forgetting the various strong contributors like urself, bieber, neospeed, kanmani, (also sogaddu ) forgive me if don't recollect other names here.

We are soon going to start new thread for FY 2012, looking forward to that. All the best for next year to everyone.

[cbpds1]

I was hunting in vain, u have some pointers?

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...

[soggadu]

I was hunting in vain, u have some pointers?

Get registered with hp.com... they are sending in emails wheh they get these in stock...

Nishant...

You got really involved dude...now i can say fab five instead of 4... i am happy for your contributions... keep it going....

Hey Q... How is ur card... r u going to post it here or not ;-) ...