ssvp22,Originally Posted by ssvp22
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ed-projections
ssvp22,
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ed-projections
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716
The lower end of projection is also 1 month off (i.e. measured by backlog). But of course that 1 month could ultimately prove to be change. But its the fact that lower end also is off makes me concerned.
p.s. - Last year Sep was not such a good month for EB1 and EB2ROW. If they continue their rate then they will consume the SOFAD otherwise wouldve been avlbl.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Q,
If I thought normality was going to be followed, I would agree with you. In fact, it was an assumption I held on to for a long time, assuming more SOFAD was going to be available.
CO's comments and the fact that the extra demand was found so late, pretty much guarantees the pattern will not follow that of previous years.
It does rely on USCIS actually processing them, which is always a worry.
I think there is more a problem of potentially having too many EB1/EB2-ROW cases that could be approved. Had CO known about that before setting the August VB, I am not sure he would have moved it so far. I can see some (probably EB1) approvals being delayed into October.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-23-2011 at 03:57 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Q /Spec / Veni & All Friends,
I did a simple query on Trackitt; the trend shows that EB2 ROW approvals are actually accelerating and this year EB2 ROW approvals will actually surpass last year if the accelerating trend continues or come very close.
Country of Chargeability = ROW.
I485 Status = Approved
Category= EB2.
Now using approval and denial date ranges for last year and this year the figures can be obtained.
11 Months of FY 2010 - 496
11 Months of FY 2011 - 475 (We still have a few days to go in Aug 2011).
Over the entire year this trend never crossed the 90% ratio this is now at 95% already completely discounting the few days that we have in Aug. This ratio has always been less than 90% in fact at the beginning of the year it was just at 66%. Now Aug 2010 has 46 approvals so far while Aug 2011 has 37 approvals, since there is a delay in posting approvals and some days still left, the approvals in 2011 may well surpass 2010 for the month of Aug. We all know if ROW usage in 2011 matches 2010 then 2011 SOFAD from ROW will be lesser because of the lower cap minus FB. Now the real question is what proportion of I140 surge will be approved in 2011 itself, the higher the better for the upcoming years SOFAD. If its 50-50 then the first quarter of 2012 will generate virtually no SOFAD from EB2 ROW.
Teddy You are right. ROW this year was not the main story. It was really EB1.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Agree, Spec's SOFAD calculation looks close to the actual for FY2011!
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Q,
Another point to note is 72% of the ROW-M-P PERM Certifications from FY2011(Q1-Q3) are with PD2010 or before.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf
From this PDF, totally 82k visas were used in the first three quarters.
Based on this data, we should have 58k visas for the last quarter.
Why our PD stayed the same in the last month? It doesn't make any sense. In July and August our EB2 C&I consumption is only 10-15k based on demand data. That means they have to approve more than 40k EB1&EB2 ROW in the last quarter. I think they will waste some visas in this year.
qblogfan,
Remember USCIS numbers represent only AOS (485), we have to add CP to ~82K.
FY2010 CP(EB1-5) = ~12.5K, If we take same CP number for this year means only ~45k is available to USCIS for Q4.
Assuming EB2IC will be using 15 -18K in Q4, leaves about 27-30k for the rest (EB1,EB2ROW, EB3All, EB4 and EB5).
Last edited by veni001; 08-26-2011 at 09:18 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Thanks for your explanation. It makes perfect sense now.
I think 27k-30k is reasonable.
qblogfan,
Not only that let's look at 140 data
FY2011:I140 Data
Q1-Q2:
Completions = 35,331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (12.77%)
Q3:
Completions = 26,838
Approvals = 24,757
Denials = 2,081 (7.75%)
Q1-Q3:
Completions = 62,169
Approvals = 55,577
Denials = 6,592 (10.60%)
Looking at Q3 - 140 approvals are almost doubled and the denial ratio dropped significantly, means more EB2ROW-M-P(485) into the pipeline for Q4.
Last edited by veni001; 08-26-2011 at 05:11 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
wow! your further analysis makes 100% sense now!
The Q3 140 number is the key for the Q4 VB.
I think in Q1-Q3 the EB1 cases were not ready for approval because of the memo and once they opened the 140 gate in Q3, a large number of EB2ROW and EB1 are running into the system to block the Q4 pipeline.
The large number of 140 pending cases make FY 2012 very scary! I think SOFAD will drop big time in FY 2012.
ni hao my friend. Not sure about the big time in there. Let's see at least first few months before thinking that. Hope again.
For china, it shud be quite better movement. Had posted earlier on this.
Agree, starting Oct bulletin, EB2C should see at least 2-3 weeks forward movement until FY2012 spillover season start.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Veni, now, I also think that normal movement of EB2C will bring them close to the tipping point of August 2007 around the start of SO season. This brings an interesting puzzle. The SO visas are to be given strictly in order of PD. So the BTM for intake for EB2C, would that also have to be con-joined to EB2I. In other words, could the need to have inventory for EB2C also benefit EB2I, in both timing and the temporary date movement.
Nishant,
I am not sure why it should have any effect.
At the beginning of FY2012, EB2-C have at least 3,200 cases outstanding, with more PWMB to become qualified as the months and dates progress.
That is more than the initial allocation of 2,803 available for the whole year.
Until the end of the third quarter, DOS cannot allocate more than 81% of total visas anyway (54% by end of Q2). Even if they were to allocate the full 2,803 available to EB2-C, they will not reach the tipping point.
Since EB1 and EB2-non IC demand seems quite strong going into FY2012, DOS may well be constrained how quickly they can use more than the 250ish visas per month allowed to each of EB2-C and EB2-I and stay within the 27% per quarter limit. At that rate, to reach the end of June 2007 for EB2-C would require 6.5 months worth and July 2007 needs the same again.
If usage of visas is low in other Categories, at some point DOS may be able to announce spare visas available to EB2-IC, as they did in the May VB in FY2011.
That seems relatively more unlikely in FY2012 at the same level of numbers (12k) as seen in FY2011. That 12k allowed a further 9.7k (81% of 12k) to be allocated to EB2 in May/June 2011, of which around 9k seems to be used.
In FY2011, DOS stayed completely within the law in starting SO season early IMO. I think it is more difficult for FY2012.
Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen.
I don't think EB2-C progress will be a factor at all.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
I am with you, unless USCIS comes up with "testing the waters" concept, it is very unlikely to see any forward movement for EB2I until Q3 of FY2012!
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
EB2 - South Korea has been using significant VISAs from past few years.
FY2011(Q1-Q3) saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.
South Korea: PERM Data:
FY2010:
Completions = 5,301
Approved = 4,610
Denied/Withdrawn = 691 (13.04%)
FY2011(Q1-Q3):
Completions = 3,360 (~15.5% decrease)
Approved = 2,632
Denied/Withdrawn = 728 (21.67%)
Last edited by veni001; 08-27-2011 at 08:54 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Spec
Very well said. I agree w you. The dates in 2011 are so cleverly crafted that USCIS has eliminated a lot of backlog but at the same time kept enough to ensure they have discretion to make any further movement. EB2C has just enough backlog that puts them in exactly same fate as EB2I in terms of any SFM or BTM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
My understanding is that, as long as renewal is filed, she is in status even if the decision goes beyond her H1 expiry date. (I do think that she should be approved before that though). If a -ve decision comes in (which I doubt) she would be out of status from H1 perspective. But she can enjoy dependent status using her husband's H1.
I am not quite confident about transition from H1 to H4 period and being out of status there. But I think she can change her status from H1 to H4 without having to go to India. Visa is only an entry mechanism. Status can be obtained without getting a visa.
But I am not sure what window for conversion from H1 to H4 keeps her in status all the time.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Spec, this puts to rest another theory in my mind.
Thanks a lot for the detailed reply.
Now about another theory which is breeding in my mind.
Now about the sentence about: "Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen."
In July 2007 fiasco period, I remember reading post analysis somewhere, where in the Ombudsman had worked out a deal with USCIS and DOS that all applicants with PD July 2007 and later will not be given green cards, and shall be only used to build up demand by USCIS.
I frankly see no way out for USCIS/DOS but to "ignore the law" and make a meaningful movement, sometime at least 6 months before the FY 2012 ends, and that movement also has to have a intake of a buffer period of 1 or 2 months also.
Now would this be called "ignoring the law", or rightfully and honestly, specifying the reason why it's being done, add a disclaimer just like they did in July 2007 period, something on the lines that, this movement is only being done to generate demand by USCIS, and you should expect significant retrogression in forthcoming months.
It is extremely sad that we ended months away from the tipping point this FY. If we had indeed rested at the July 1st 2007 whereabouts, the above would have a very strong chance. Even without this, I believe we might be teetering on the edge. Let's say fine, SO is bad, and we come to rest on September 1st 2007. So what then, how do you get more demand generated for FY 2013. The fundamental problem will always remain, and USCIS/DOS have to come to an agreement on how to tackle this.
Last edited by nishant2200; 08-29-2011 at 03:38 PM.
Nishant,
I cent-percent agree with you on this. I hope and pray USCIS/DOS decide to tackle this scenario in the near future rather than "waiting to cross the bridge when they approach it".
Nishant,
There are always alternatives. Of course there are other ways out, even if they don't seem very palatable.
DOS can move the dates when they lawfully can (i.e. when enough visas are deemed to be available). Filing would be possible, with approval, for many, possibly the following year - or USCIS could actually do some work for a change.
If that happens to be too late for USCIS to adjudicate them all, there are plenty of pre adjudicated EB3 applicants who can use the spare visas if qualified adjudicated EB2 applicants run out.
If DOS want to follow the law, they can't add a disclaimer like that. The dates can only move if there are visas immediately available. The law does not provide for movement purely to build demand. It is an area that needs changing, but there is no appetite in Congress to address it, nor have I even seen it suggested. As far as I am aware, there was never a disclaimer published in 2007 - please provide a link if you have one.
I don't think that a movement to July 1, 2007 would have made much difference.
That still would have left 3.8k + 2.7k PWMB + Porting which is still more than the initial allocation. Possibly EB2-C might have been able to push past August 15, 2007.
As it is, there is probably 16-18k EB2-IC demand without even moving beyond August 15, 2007, of which only 4.5k represents PWMB that would take any considerable time to adjudicate. Had the dates reached August 15, 2007 then possibly there was scope to do something about moving COD around CP cases.
The demand can be generated at the end of each yearly cycle. Each alternating year, not all cases might be adjudicated in time, allowing EB3 to potentially progress.
At least, in the broader sense, no EB visas would be wasted.
Who knows what will happen - I certainly don't. I do think it is one of the more interesting questions surrounding FY2012. Whatever happens, DOS cannot win - they will upset one group or the other.
Please treat my reply as playing the "straightest of bats". It is meant to be thought provoking.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec
The law talks about visa allocation but moving dates is not something that law really cares about. in other words ... the dates can move without having to allocate visas to all whose dates are current or even those who are documentarily qualified. DoS has done it in the past and there is no reason why they wouldn't do it again - but for 2 reasons: 1) It makes their performance look bad when they can't process applications that are current and documentarily qualified. 2) Is there a motivating factor (e.g. building pipeline) that aligns with policy?
So whilst (oink oink) I do agree with you about why they may not move dates in 2011, I do not believe law has much to do with it.
On another note, laws can be bypassed, bent and outright broken. EB3 mexico date movement (or lack thereof) and "Quarterly Spillovers That Don't Occur" are excelent examples.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Spec, thanks for reply.
about your question, this is link to original good old July 2007 visa bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_3258.html
see Section E:
E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS
All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.
Q, see above, you are absolutely correct I feel, they have in fact done this earlier, as per above.
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