Guys, the thumb rule mentioned by Q, Veni above, makes greater truth when economy is like current. With improvement n boom in economy, I would go more with 6 month movement (12k).
But then in later years, the demand per year itself maybe less, so 12k cud move further.
This of course doesnt take into account porting.
I also think there is increasing chatter about immigration changes needed, n as someone posted earlier, given the right breeding ground, it will happen, I think in the next 10 years.
Fingers crossed.
Last edited by nishant2200; 08-20-2011 at 08:54 AM.
- PERM labor stopped
- CIS relaxing of deportation of illegals
- White house pursing DREAM act
Could the above be signs of clearing of the existing EB backlog (EB1/EB2/EB3) ? for fresh intake of DREAM act applications ?
I agree with mesan123. I am not too sure if my colleague filed with LCA or not. I wanted to let the forum know that H1B extensions are not impacted with unavailability of PWD, at least not for those folks who have approved PERM and 140.Originally Posted by mesan123
1. Was due to court case for H2
2. Election coming up, want to appease
3. Being pushed very heavily by hispanic groups, WH already on board since long, but cant get all to agree
In my opinion, nothing to do with EB.
Good brainstorming though!
That's the reason I had a PD of Aug 2008 = Summer 2013. Best case, its PD+4.5 yrs which makes is Winter 2013.
Its interesting timing for my professional career. Around that time, I'll have to make a choice about whether or not I want to pursue a partnership in my Firm (management consultant) or switch jobs to a regular company.
Recently Few Companies like CTS/Qualcom applying for GC in EB1 category. Looks like there is a loophole in EB1, companies showing them as Multinational Managers. Its ridiculous. There are no. of guys having better/best experience & have been waiting in EB2/EB3. Is there anyway to escalate to USCIS ?
True. Upgraded my H1B to Premium after the disappointing sept. bulletin release. Got approved a week later for 3 yrs : EVC model : 9 + 3yr.extension
True...but this EBI case filling by this companies are happening from last quater of 2007. It is not something new...i feel USCIS also is aware of this(My personal View)......
I do try to follow the thread(much better than other immi forums out there)..But most of your posts seem to suggest that the outlook is bleak for EB2 this coming year? Isn't Myurthy's thread contradicting your statements?
Last edited by RMS_V13; 08-21-2011 at 09:05 AM.
Two things I take care while I predict anything:
1) I try to stick to facts and avoid optimism or pessimism.
2) I never try to align myself with what others are saying. I try to align myself with Facts.
So I do not really know what Murthy is saying that is contradicting with me or what you think is pessimistic in what I am saying. Would be helpful if you clarify then only I can respond more intelligently. Besides, whether I come across as an optimist or pessimist is a function of one's own viewpoint tooSure you would agree w at that!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Right..Should have been clearer..Two things I take care while I predict anything:
1) I try to stick to facts and avoid optimism or pessimism.
2) I never try to align myself with what others are saying. I try to align myself with Facts.
So I do not really know what Murthy is saying that is contradicting with me or what you think is pessimistic in what I am saying. Would be helpful if you clarify then only I can respond more intelligently. Besides, whether I come across as an optimist or pessimist is a function of one's own viewpoint too
A lot of your posts seem to suggest that 2011 may not be good in terms of movement for EB2 I.
Murthy.com says there will be 'noticable movement' for EB2 I this coming year..
The optimist in me wants to believe the latter statement
Last edited by RMS_V13; 08-21-2011 at 09:56 AM. Reason: Typo
I have maintained that the movement will be anywhere between Oct 2007 - Apr 2008 for full year in 2012. I have also said that because of the backlog coming to an end, the dates will move much sooner than usual May timeline.
Again ... that is just based on what I know today, will change over time. One can see that optimistic or pessimistic. And I wouldn't have a problem with somebodys viewpoint.
Last edited by qesehmk; 08-21-2011 at 11:59 AM. Reason: Corrected thanks to Dec2007
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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There is nothing new in this. When the applications are close to running out they have to move the dates fwd. The only conclusions that I can draw are
1. If lawyers are saying BTM rather than small movements or current then maybe they have some inside info on this.
2. This is another nail in the coffin of the "current" theory. That was always unlikely now even less.
Also nothing new in the timing. BTM has to happen this FY 2012 sometime and from the NVC fee receipts does look like it may hit June 2008. My guess would be sometime in Jan Feb 2012.
I'm sure you mean April 2008 not 2007, right? I'm hanging in there with PD of Dec 31st, 2007. In another year or 1.5 years from now, I might have to make a important career decision. waiting for my date....
Oops .... corrected!!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Q, this upcoming 1 year is probably the heaviest density seen yet. So approximating it to 24K maybe on the liberal side. IMHO there is 2.5K demand every month in this year from Apr 2007 to Apr 2008 for India + China EB2. Here Iam assuming 24K as the SOFAD not as backlog, 24K backlog reduction is ~ 30K SOFAD
.
Secondly porting is set to accelerate for sure as EB2-I dates are Mid Apr 2007 so every EB3 I/C virtually if they port are eligible for immediate 485 approval, so as soon as the labor + 140 + interfiling is complete these cases are eligible for almost an immediate approval. Also the gap between EB2 and EB3 India is higher so he sample space for those who can port and get GC immediately is much larger. 6K might represent the high end; however 4K represents the lower end.
- Assuming 8K as preadjudicated backlog is actually the best case scenario, let’s go with that.
- 4K PWMB till Aug 2007 is also a fair approximation.
- The range of backlog from Apr 2007 to 01-AUG-2007 is in the range of 16-18K.
- Now almost everyone across the board agrees that this year SOFAD of 30K represents the best ever or peak. The upcoming years SOFAD by most estimates maybe 24-25K.
- So the wiggle room ahead of 01-AUG-2007 say with 2kK SOFAD is 6-8K.
- This is only 3 months worth of movement so it makes the date at 01-OCT-2007 for actual GC issuance. I think Trackitt approvals in Q1 2012 will be a key indicator to monitor.
- The extra intake or gate opening is completely in the hypothetical domain they can be to a date much further. There are 2 key things to observe here, I140's are being processed very aggressively and in 2 quarters the backlog will be quite less, this comes at a critical time when the agencies will be estimating SOFAD, almost surely Q1 2010 may not yield any SOFAD for Q1 atleast. The other issue is the prevailing wage issue that is working in our favor right now, however unless this goes on for months it may not cause any significant impact, prevailing wage is one of the earlier steps of perm it takes 2-3 months after that. Any delays here will be largely neutralized by faster I140 process this will be a factor if it extends for say another 3-4 months.
Teddy and Q your analysis has been great so far and hope it continues. What I want to bring to your attention is
1. Cases that are abandon due to person having left the country or simply upgraded their status. How many of these could there be? Remember the Karzian memo took effect this year. I am sure lot of PWMB might fall into this criteria. My guess for PWMB is only 2K.
2. Once we get to Aug 1 is there a way for USCIS and DOL to make sure all I140s are active? My answer is no and hence I feel like they might move the dates to find out actually how many I140s are active. I am not talking about GC assurance but of EADs.
Your comments please.
Trackitt trend updated in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716
In summary the trend is a bit confusing when compared to the September-non-movement. We should be seeing much more EB1 EB2ROW approvals. But they are not there. The good news is - there shouldn't be any retrogression whatsoever. The other news (not necessarily bad one) is if EB1 EB2ROW don't show uptick in approvals then either EB3 should see some spillover (which I really doubt) or it means PWMB+Portings were higher than we thought they were. Or of course the third possibility of wasting visas (which again I doubt). Sometimes I wonder, by not moving dates has DoS/USCIS boxed itself in a bit of a tricky situation?
Last edited by qesehmk; 08-22-2011 at 12:21 PM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Q,
I think you need to re-upload the image in a larger size. It is too difficult to read.
I think I mentioned this earlier - Although your table says SOFAD, it is actually Spillover, since it does not include the 5.6k normal allocation. I know the text makes this clear.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-22-2011 at 10:28 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
For the PWMB's 2K maybe a very low figure to assume, only a few may have left or may have upgraded to Eb1 or left. So probably 4K or say 3.5K is a good figure to stay with I agree that for EAD and 485 filing the dates will be further ahead to the date for actual GC issuance. It will be interesting to se how USCIS - DOS go about this and how much of buffer they want. If actual GC issuance date is 01-OCT-2007 then the intake may well be till the end of 2007. For most people EAD /AP is more important than actual GC especially true for those waiting just to file because of H1B is becoming difficult.
As per Sep 2011 demand data EB2IC had backlog of 8,000. Since the date didn't advance I am assuming the backlog is still 8000. Now the EB2IC quota for 2012 is approx 5600 for EB2IC.So I guess only during the spillover quarter (starting May 2012) we can see the PD crossing Aug 2007.
Am i understanding it right?
Deb
Teddy
I actually agree w a lot of things you say (i.e. rationale). What is not so much agreeable (and very little is debatable given the lack of data) is the magnitude of each of the component you quote.
PWMB - I am much more inclined to say is probaby 2-3K max.
Portings - 3K max
Also I think next year ROW will yield 2K more than this year since they seem to be clearing their backlog this year. Same with EB1 - the entire 14K or so we saw this year will NOT go away. We will continue to see 8K or so next year. And as a result overall SOFAD next year - I only see coming down by 4-5K. However the confidence level in anything at this point of time is so low ..... its not worth debating the differences.
I do think #1 is a very possible scenario. But I think the magnitude of such cases will be low since people are resilient and will find any reason to hang on to their application.
As per #2, I believe (just a gut feel) that USCIS/DoS do have some mechanisms to ensure that employment/application is active. Even if they don't, I think they have all the capacity required to push through good number of applications in short amount of time to meet teh quota. Remember we are talking about EB which is 10% or less of their annual green card processing capacity. So they don't have to fine tune their numbers to n'th degree. They can with one stroke go forward and backward and get all the cases they need.
Thanks spec.. yes it is not SOFAD. Corrected the size, but not sure if it is still any better. will keep trying..
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
That is unfortunately so very correct.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Teddy,Posted by TeddyKoochu
.
Secondly porting is set to accelerate for sure as EB2-I dates are Mid Apr 2007 so every EB3 I/C virtually if they port are eligible for immediate 485 approval, so as soon as the labor + 140 + interfiling is complete these cases are eligible for almost an immediate approval. Also the gap between EB2 and EB3 India is higher so he sample space for those who can port and get GC immediately is much larger. 6K might represent the high end; however 4K represents the lower end.
Agree with most things you said other than above. The assumption that people will port only when they see that their date is current in EB2 may not be right. Its been quite clear for atleast the last 3 years that EB3 is 5 years behind EB2 (minimum). I actually think porting will reduce over time since people who had to would already have.
Also assuming I am person A who has PD of April1 '07 EB3. If I see my date go current in Sep bulletin and decide that I should port to EB2, I willing to bet a sizable sum that Person A will not be able to port within FY 2012, forget before spillover starts. I dont know about desi consulting companies since I never worked for one but I have filed 2 labors and each time its taken me 10 mnths after I joined the company to get my labor filed, and this is after both the companies initiated the process pretty much within 2-3 months of me joining, so if I am someone who has to switch a job to port it should take well over a year.
Last edited by qesehmk; 08-22-2011 at 12:41 PM. Reason: reverted message
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