EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

imechanix thanks. Murthy quote is kind of vague .... but nonetheless also contains something we have consistently maintained (in bold below).

From Murthy.com Website.

Conclusions and Considerations for FY12
There were no predictions in the Visa Bulletin for the start of FY12 on October 1, 2011. The EB2 India and China advancement at the end of FY11, and the resulting I-485 case approvals, should make a noticeable impact in the pending I-485 inventory for EB2 India and China. This, hopefully, will avoid any need to retrogress the cutoff dates in these categories, and, potentially, allow for at least some forward movement.

The interesting prospect for the upcoming fiscal year is the complete absence of any pending India and China EB2 I-485s with priority dates after mid August 2007. Since cutoff dates are based on predictions of supply and demand, if enough of the older, long-pending I-485 cases are approved, the cutoff date may have to be advanced to fill the "pipeline" with more cases. Thus, at some point, there is likely to be a noticeable, temporary advancement in the EB2 category for India and China in order to allow for additional case filings.

[imechanix]

imechanix thanks. Murthy quote is kind of vague .... but nonetheless also contains something we have consistently maintained (in bold below).

I agree, the statement echoes what we have already discussed before. Except instead of BTM they use NTA (Noticeable Temporary Advancement. :-)

[qesehmk]

Yes.

And may be I should have been more clear too. I think the reason it is vague is it kind of vaguely refers to the fact that existing 485 inventory is coming to an end for EB2IC. But doesn't really talk about portings or PWMB or the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW still have significant demand in pipeline and in future or EB5 situation that Spec outlined just yesterday.

I agree, the statement echoes what we have already discussed before. Except instead of BTM they use NTA (Noticeable Temporary Advancement. :-)

[familyguy]

with a PD of Jan/2008, It pretty much seems like I have to wait at least two more years to get EAD/GC... its very frustrating

Yes.

And may be I should have been more clear too. I think the reason it is vague is it kind of vaguely refers to the fact that existing 485 inventory is coming to an end for EB2IC. But doesn't really talk about portings or PWMB or the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW still have significant demand in pipeline and in future or EB5 situation that Spec outlined just yesterday.

[qesehmk]

That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.

with a PD of Jan/2008, It pretty much seems like I have to wait at least two more years to get EAD/GC... its very frustrating

[whereismygclost]

As Teddy pointed out we have a known 18K(8K remaining inventory+4K PWMB+6K Porting) potential demand for 2012. So I agree with family guy that it looks more like 2013 for PD Jan'2008. In fact my PD is 03-OCT-07 and I really have doubts if I will be able to make it in 2012. As Spec pointed EB5 spillover will be lesser next year ..Q and other gurus ..what's your best estimate for SOFAD for 2012?

That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.

[qesehmk]

pls check the header. Beyond that at this time at least I am not comfortable saying anything .... the simple reason being ... unless you know where 2011 ended the range of prediction is just too wide to be meaningful. Basically I think the range indeed could be Oct 2007 to Apr 2008. Jan 2008 is not such a wild scenario at all.

As Teddy pointed out we have a known 18K(8K remaining inventory+4K PWMB+6K Porting) potential demand for 2012. So I agree with family guy that it looks more like 2013 for PD Jan'2008. In fact my PD is 03-OCT-07 and I really have doubts if I will be able to make it in 2012. As Spec pointed EB5 spillover will be lesser next year ..Q and other gurus ..what's your best estimate for SOFAD for 2012?

[familyguy]

Thanks Q for encouraging words...
b/n nice article in politico...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61710.html

That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.

[qesehmk]

Good article! Scanned it quickly though. I have always felt that if an immigration reform has to take place the best conditions are - second term, republican president and economy doing well. 2007 fiacso as somebody pointed out (gcseeker?) was one such perfect place. Hence the movement. On the other hand current conditions are the worst conditions first term, democratic president and economy on antarctica!

Thanks Q for encouraging words...
b/n nice article in politico...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61710.html

[familyguy]

with current political situation and economy, chances of Obama becoming a second term president is less than 50%.. which means there is no hope for CIR in near future... hei baghwan plz bachao!!!!

any ways, happy friday guys

Good article! Scanned it quickly though. I have always felt that if an immigration reform has to take place the best conditions are - second term, republican president and economy doing well. 2007 fiacso as somebody pointed out (gcseeker?) was one such perfect place. Hence the movement. On the other hand current conditions are the worst conditions first term, democratic president and economy on antarctica!

[superdesi2100]

with current political situation and economy, chances of Obama becoming a second term president is less than 50%.. which means there is no hope for CIR in near future... hei baghwan plz bachao!!!!

any ways, happy friday guys

First two years of Obama had Democrats in control of both champers of Congress. Obama had promised to bring CIR in the first year of his presidency. Democrats are bigger culprits than Republicans when it comes to legal immigration.

[veni001]

Yes.

And may be I should have been more clear too. I think the reason it is vague is it kind of vaguely refers to the fact that existing 485 inventory is coming to an end for EB2IC. But doesn't really talk about portings or PWMB or the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW still have significant demand in pipeline and in future or EB5 situation that Spec outlined just yesterday.

Q,

EB5 demand in the pipe line is definitely a concern. But, with almost freeze on EB2IC movement in last two bulletins, i am not exactly sure how much EB5 backlog will be cleared this year itself!

Another trend we need to look into is the EB5 receipts, it looks like, May and June show a downward trend and with the current economic situation, I am not sure if monthly EB5 receipts are going to stay around 300 number?

P.S: FY2009, when the economy went south, EB5 monthly receipts are in double digits only.

[qesehmk]

Veni

I agree and the simple thought in my mind is always that - once a person has "INVESTABLE" 500,000 USD with him, why the hell s/he would want to pursue GC in his life. S/he already will have enough business interests in the home country to not pursue GC.

Q,

EB5 demand in the pipe line is definitely a concern. But, with almost freeze on EB2IC movement in last two bulletins, i am not exactly sure how much EB5 backlog will be cleared this year itself!

Another trend we need to look into is the EB5 receipts, it looks like, May and June show a downward trend and with the current economic situation, I am not sure if monthly EB5 receipts are going to stay around 300 number?

P.S: FY2009, when the economy went south, EB5 monthly receipts are in double digits only.

[mesan123]

I agree..another thing to watch is people filling H1b's are coming down drastically...it is already end of August and only 25,300 applications filled till now..as the laws for H1b are getting tough and also with people on H1b's leaving the country with problems like H1b extensions and visa...

if the market is same like this for few years i feel the no of people filling for GC also will come down in EB2I/C catorgeries also....

Gurus can correct me...if my analysis is wrong

Veni

I agree and the simple thought in my mind is always that - once a person has "INVESTABLE" 500,000 USD with him, why the hell s/he would want to pursue GC in his life. S/he already will have enough business interests in the home country to not pursue GC.

[bieber]

Pfizer and Bank of America announced lay-offs in last 1 week, Economic situation and in general hiring is going to be slow if not reverted (there is 33% chance for global recession)

[cbpds1]

Very good point GCQ !!, why did the gov think someone wud want to do it, may be we need to interview the folks from this category

Veni

I agree and the simple thought in my mind is always that - once a person has "INVESTABLE" 500,000 USD with him, why the hell s/he would want to pursue GC in his life. S/he already will have enough business interests in the home country to not pursue GC.

[soggadu]

guys...i request everyone of you to please go through this link ( Non immigration )... Mods please remove this post once people get to know...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=7809#post7809

[Sandeep2011]

Reg effect on H1,in my opinion this would affect only those people who are on their 6th year of H1 and want to apply for Labor so that they can use it for H1 extension using AC21. This should not affect H1 extensions for people who already have Labor or who are in their 3rd year of H1 and want to extend to 6 years. Just my market depreciated 2 cents...

Just an update on H1B extension - one of my colleagues filed for H1b extension on 10th Aug at VSC under premium processing, he received an email today from USCIS that his 129 (extension) has been approved. He was filing for extension beyond 6th year and already has an approved 140.

[vizcard]

That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.

But looks like aug 2008 PD will be summer of 2013. Hopefully sooner but I'm getting less optimistic about that.

[qesehmk]

Here is a rule of thumb for me and I know others may disagree. But in general after vertical spillovers are cancelled, as far as EB2 is concerned 1 yr movement per year especially in this economy is very much possible.

The simple reason being - 1 Yr = approx 24K backlog.

EB5 usually would give 5-8K
EB2ROWMP - 2-10
EB1 - 0 - 10
EB2IC - 6K
------------
So the average case scenario is 23K. Pretty close to 1 Yr backlog. So for everybody - instead of trying to pessimistic or optimistic keep this rule of thumb in mind and then as we go ahead ... ask yourself which category is risk and accordingly what are your chances.

Being pessimistic is not a good strategy. I would rather be an optimist than a pessimist.

But looks like aug 2008 PD will be summer of 2013. Hopefully sooner but I'm getting less optimistic about that.

[nayekal]

Just an update on H1B extension - one of my colleagues filed for H1b extension on 10th Aug at VSC under premium processing, he received an email today from USCIS that his 129 (extension) has been approved. He was filing for extension beyond 6th year and already has an approved 140.

Good news!
But PWD for LCA has been temporarily suspended from mid July, then how he come is able to apply for H1 extension. Did your colleague applied without LCA or with LCA.

[mesan123]

The PWD is temporarily suspended only for PERM applications. You can file for H1b LCA. My company applied for my H1b extension LCA on 1st week of August and i got it and filled my H1b extension and waiting for approval..

Good news!
But PWD for LCA has been temporarily suspended from mid July, then how he come is able to apply for H1 extension. Did your colleague applied without LCA or with LCA.

[mesan123]

nice aplit of SOFAD for each year

One question Q...so each year based on each catogery applications we may get roughly around ~20K spillover + country quota...with this my PD(Feb 2011) will be current by end of 2015(4 years from now)....did i get it right..)i know these are estimates)

Here is a rule of thumb for me and I know others may disagree. But in general after vertical spillovers are cancelled, as far as EB2 is concerned 1 yr movement per year especially in this economy is very much possible.

The simple reason being - 1 Yr = approx 24K backlog.

EB5 usually would give 5-8K
EB2ROWMP - 2-10
EB1 - 0 - 10
EB2IC - 6K
------------
So the average case scenario is 23K. Pretty close to 1 Yr backlog. So for everybody - instead of trying to pessimistic or optimistic keep this rule of thumb in mind and then as we go ahead ... ask yourself which category is risk and accordingly what are your chances.

Being pessimistic is not a good strategy. I would rather be an optimist than a pessimist.

[qesehmk]

Not only it should be current by then but you should have GC by then.

nice aplit of SOFAD for each year

One question Q...so each year based on each catogery applications we may get roughly around ~20K spillover + country quota...with this my PD(Feb 2011) will be current by end of 2015(4 years from now)....did i get it right..)i know these are estimates)

[veni001]

nice aplit of SOFAD for each year

One question Q...so each year based on each catogery applications we may get roughly around ~20K spillover + country quota...with this my PD(Feb 2011) will be current by end of 2015(4 years from now)....did i get it right..)i know these are estimates)

mesan,
If you look Q's post closely, ~23k include IC country quota.

As a thumb rule EB2I can expect to file for 485/GC in hand, 5 year from the PD.