EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

Nishant,

It's an interesting point though.

DOS are essentially now completely at the mercy of USCIS to come through with the extra approvals in August/September.

If they don't, visas can be wasted, since there appears to be no outlet in EB3 to consume them, based on the EB3 CODs set in the September VB.

It is possible that EB2-IC could take up some of the slack, since their is the possibility that the August VB movement was more than the numbers available now can support.

I seriously doubt CO would allow a situation where there is any chance of numbers being wasted.

If USCIS came through with 12k EB1 & EB2-ROW approvals in August/September, I think DOS would run out of visas.

In that scenario, I think they would honor any EB2-IC approvals and say that visas had become unavailable to EB1 & EB2-ROW. We would see a bumper number of approvals in October.

[veni001]

Q,Spec, nishant,

June'11 140 completions and Q3 PERM data will shed some light on this sudden increase in demand!

PERM Factsheet released at the end of June show significant increase in filings and USCIS dashboard shows increased efforts since March to reduce i140 backlog.

I agree with Spec comments that DOS is at the mercy of USCIS, at least in the spillover season!

[nishant2200]

Spec, in ur above post, do you mean attaching visa numbers from FY 2011 quota to EB2 I/C in advance, and approving them first thing in October per October bulletin. Is this possible. If so, Oct bulletin has to advance.

Also, one curiosity, has DOS ever amended a bulletin to advance dates.

[nishant2200]

Veni, thanks for continue monitoring trend. Let's pray that USCIS clear backlog full throttle, now that it seems they have taken a huge buy in for them on the table.

[Spectator]

Spec, in ur above post, do you mean attaching visa numbers from FY 2011 quota to EB2 I/C in advance, and approving them first thing in October per October bulletin. Is this possible. If so, Oct bulletin has to advance.

Also, one curiosity, has DOS ever amended a bulletin to advance dates.

nishant,

No.

USCIS have plenty of time to adjudicate all the EB2-IC cases made Current before the end of September, even allowing for the fact that some made Current in July still seem to be approved.

I'm saying they are more likely to approve those in FY2011, since delayed EB1/EB2-ROW approvals would still be Current in October and far more visas are available to them.

Since the supply for EB2-IC is limited as soon as we move into October, it is far more of a risk to delay them, since it is almost certainly known that there is more demand to come that has not yet reached the documentarily qualified stage.

As long as EB1/EB2-ROW are seen to rise, no one would know the difference.

On the other hand, a failure to approve as many EB2-IC as possible might have repercussions as to when the dates move in FY2012.

The fact that CO moved the Demand down by the full number of pre-adjudicated cases makes me fairly confident that all EB2-IC cases, that can be, will be approved in FY2011.

[gcseeker]

Spec

I am confused with the above information. If USCIS has suddenly found so many cases ( 12K) and this would reduce the SOFAD starting with the new fiscal year and also porting and PWMB will be consuming visa numbers each month...Why would not the dates for Oct/Nov onwards not retrogress for EB2I.

Am I missing something...

[nishant2200]

Spec, Veni:

So the best which can come out of this is:

1. Can consider all EB2 I/C till 15 April 2007 dealt with.
2. EB1, EB2 ROW backlog not a concern for FY 2012. No 15/12 EB1 demand going in.
3. EB2 ROW all countries retained, n current continues.

gcseeker, in response to ur above, my opinion is retro should not cause alarm bells. The dates will fairly easily come back into mid 2007 range even if retro, and by the time SO season, we will have better idea of expected SO.

[veni001]

Spec, Veni:

So the best which can come out of this is:

1. Can consider all EB2 I/C till 15 April 2007 dealt with.
2. EB1, EB2 ROW backlog not a concern for FY 2012. No 15/12 EB1 demand going in.
3. EB2 ROW all countries retained, n current continues.

gcseeker, in response to ur above, my opinion is retro should not cause alarm bells. The dates will fairly easily come back into mid 2007 range even if retro, and by the time SO season, we will have better idea of expected SO.

nishant,

#1 This depends on no.of VISAs available for Sept Vs EB1 demand.

#2 If USCIS clear most of EB1 backlong in Sept, depends on # of VISAs available, and if EB1-140 receipts continuue similar to FY2011, then EB1 backlog will not be a concern for FY2012 spillover.

#3 As Spec and Q pointed allmost all of ROW is applying in EB2, unless the is any surge in ROW PERM, should remain current for FY2012. I would wait until Q3-Q4 (FY2011) PERM data to conclude on spillover from ROW.

[Spectator]

Spec

I am confused with the above information. If USCIS has suddenly found so many cases ( 12K) and this would reduce the SOFAD starting with the new fiscal year and also porting and PWMB will be consuming visa numbers each month...Why would not the dates for Oct/Nov onwards not retrogress for EB2I.

Am I missing something...

gcseeker,

It's a good question.

I am not sure it is answerable yet.

Half way through August, there is no sign of huge extra approvals for EB1/EB2-ROW, although they are holding up quite well. That doesn't mean they couldn't be seen in the next six weeks or so. As we have seen with EB2-IC, USCIS can process fairly high numbers if they wish to.

That leaves the possibility that some of these approvals will be pushed into FY2012 and reduce SOFAD.

I don't think PWMB and Porting numbers will be so high in the first couple of months that CO will need to retrogress the dates, although it remains an outside possibility. As Nishant said, it would bounce back very quickly, even if it happened.

Let's see when the upsurge in EB1/EB2-ROW approvals happens and the magnitude of it.

[druvraj]

I guess the days of BTM are well and truly over. All that is left is S&PUM (Small and Painful Uncertain Movement). I guess what we also need to understand in our prediction for the 2012 SOFAD is that porting numbers are going to be phenomenal because USCIS just introduced EB2 Entrepreneurial visa. People in EB3IC will start a new company and port using the old PD. Once they get their GC close the company. I feel like we should see retrogression soon. Your comments please.

[qesehmk]

I don't think we have seen anything yet that should spark fears of retrogression.

Also contrary to what Spec believes, I think the numbers to be allocated in August i.e. this month already were available based on YTD July actuals. So the increase in EB2ROW and EB1 - whatever DoS is claiming - if were more than what was available for August and September non-spillover numbers, woudl have resulted into retrogression right for September.

In general since Sep is the last month, I find it hard to believe that any dates published for Sep bulletin are NOT sustainable especially since they were moved AFTER considering all YTD spillover.

I guess the days of BTM are well and truly over. All that is left is S&PUM (Small and Painful Uncertain Movement). I guess what we also need to understand in our prediction for the 2012 SOFAD is that porting numbers are going to be phenomenal because USCIS just introduced EB2 Entrepreneurial visa. People in EB3IC will start a new company and port using the old PD. Once they get their GC close the company. I feel like we should see retrogression soon. Your comments please.

[ssvp22]

porting numbers are going to be phenomenal because USCIS just introduced EB2 Entrepreneurial visa. People in EB3IC will start a new company and port using the old PD

I dont think this is a true statement. Getting Entrepreneur visa will not be easy by any means since it requires a employer employee relationship, which can be validated only via a genuine Board of Directors of the company. Besides that, i expect that you will need to generate valid revenue numbers. I dont think taking up a contracting job and hoping to get an Entrepreneurial visa comes anyway near this scenario.

[gc_usa]

I dont think this is a true statement. Getting Entrepreneur visa will not be easy by any means since it requires a employer employee relationship, which can be validated only via a genuine Board of Directors of the company. Besides that, i expect that you will need to generate valid revenue numbers. I dont think taking up a contracting job and hoping to get an Entrepreneurial visa comes anyway near this scenario.

That route is as tough as EB1 as of now.

[Spectator]

I don't think we have seen anything yet that should spark fears of retrogression.

Also contrary to what Spec believes, I think the numbers to be allocated in August i.e. this month already were available based on YTD July actuals. So the increase in EB2ROW and EB1 - whatever DoS is claiming - if were more than what was available for August and September non-spillover numbers, woudl have resulted into retrogression right for September.

In general since Sep is the last month, I find it hard to believe that any dates published for Sep bulletin are NOT sustainable especially since they were moved AFTER considering all YTD spillover.

Q,

That is pretty much what I said. Let me be clear. I do not believe that there will be retrogression in October. CO would not have kept the dates the same in the Sept VB otherwise.

But 12k extra EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals after July do not appear to be sustainable either, which is why I think some will be pushed into FY2012.

About the minimum SOFAD required to sustain the movement to 15APR07 is 31k after allowing for porting/PWMB.

After removing the normal allocation of 5.6k, that is 25.4k spillover required, which must come from a combination of EB1, EB2 and EB5.

If we say EB5 will contribute 6k, then EB1 and EB2 need to contribute 19.4k between them.

At the end of July EB1 appeared to have used 21.5k, leaving 18.5k left for further approvals and spillover.
At the end of July, EB2-ROW appeared to have used 21k and MP around 3k, leaving about 10.5k left for further approvals and spillover.

That is 29k left for EB1 and EB2-ROW after July.

Reduce that by the extra 12k leaves 17k, when 19.4k is required for 31k SOFAD.

If we assume that EB2-IC demand will be honored, that means that 2.5k EB1/EB2-ROW approvals would have to spill into FY2012. That probably means DOS do not believe USCIS can process all the numbers.

If the SOFAD required to clear EB2-IC cases to 15APR07 is higher, then more numbers will have to shift into FY2012.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Remember we had a difference of opinion of whether 19K left represented what ? Because of that I said "contrary to Spec".

However what you just said here is totally agreeable. Porting and PWMB numbers I have been using are quite low (3-4K in TOTAL through Apr 15 2007). Which explains why I think everything can be accomodated in this years quota as long as EB1 EB2ROW "surprise" demand is 12K or less.

Q,

That is pretty much what I said. Let me be clear. I do not believe that there will be retrogression in October. CO would not have kept the dates the same in the Sept VB otherwise.

But 12k extra EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals after July do not appear to be sustainable either, which is why I think some will be pushed into FY2012.

About the minimum SOFAD required to sustain the movement to 15APR07 is 31k after allowing for porting/PWMB.

After removing the normal allocation of 5.6k, that is 25.4k spillover required, which must come from a combination of EB1, EB2 and EB5.

If we say EB5 will contribute 6k, then EB1 and EB2 need to contribute 19.4k between them.

At the end of July EB1 appeared to have used 21.5k, leaving 18.5k left for further approvals and spillover.
At the end of July, EB2-ROW appeared to have used 21k and MP around 3k, leaving about 10.5k left for further approvals and spillover.

That is 29k left for EB1 and EB2-ROW after July.

Reduce that by the extra 12k leaves 17k, when 19.4k is required for 31k SOFAD.

If we assume that EB2-IC demand will be honored, that means that 2.5k EB1/EB2-ROW approvals would have to spill into FY2012. That probably means DOS do not believe USCIS can process all the numbers.

If the SOFAD required to clear EB2-IC cases to 15APR07 is higher, then more numbers will have to shift into FY2012.

[druvraj]

I dont think this is a true statement. Getting Entrepreneur visa will not be easy by any means since it requires a employer employee relationship, which can be validated only via a genuine Board of Directors of the company. Besides that, i expect that you will need to generate valid revenue numbers. I dont think taking up a contracting job and hoping to get an Entrepreneurial visa comes anyway near this scenario.

The whole point in starting the new visa under the EB2 program is to see liquidity and job growth in the market. So I feel like revenue numbers are not a criteria as well as number of jobs that need to be created like in EB5 program. In EB5 program there is fixed amount that need to be invested for one to qualify which is also not a requirement. This new EB2 visa program has been started with the intention for immigrants to start their own companies which the govt things will generate more jobs. In the first few years there will be loopholes that I am sure people will take advantage of just like EB1 and then when all the loopholes are closed or plugged we will see porting will go down. Till then EB3IC will enjoy and EB2IC will suffer. In short there is a reason why this visa in under EB2 and not anywhere else.

Some pages back I was reading about a proposed legislation to remove country cap limits is it true or another rumour?

[qesehmk]

Friends,

I am looking for help on developing an IT security product. I need a person with exceptional or at least excellent skills in writing IT security programming. e.g. reading from and writing to LDAP, XACML programming etc.

If you or your friends are interested please write to me at qesehmk@gmail.com

p.s. - Sorry for being offtopic. I will delete this post late today.

[Reader]

Sorry for the off-topic question. Can someone with experience in Successor-in-Interest 140 amendment answer my question please?

My priority date is Dec 2007 EB2 India and hoping to file 487 by September 2012. The interesting thing is that my company will merge with another company in the same business during mid 2012. My role, job title, salary will remain the same and the company tax id and name is expected to change.

I am aware that the new company has to amend the 140 by filing successor in interest 140. My questions are

1. Is it possible to apply for premium processing for 140 amendment for successor in interest?

2. If my 140 amendment is filed and pending with USCIS, can we apply 485 if the date becomes current?


Thanks in advance for your help..

[soggadu]

Sorry for the off-topic question. Can someone with experience in Successor-in-Interest 140 amendment answer my question please?

My priority date is Dec 2007 EB2 India and hoping to file 487 by September 2012. The interesting thing is that my company will merge with another company in the same business during mid 2012. My role, job title, salary will remain the same and the company tax id and name is expected to change.

I am aware that the new company has to amend the 140 by filing successor in interest 140. My questions are

1. Is it possible to apply for premium processing for 140 amendment for successor in interest?

2. If my 140 amendment is filed and pending with USCIS, can we apply 485 if the date becomes current?


Thanks in advance for your help..

Reader...we still have the concurrent filing option available. That means you can apply to 485 irrespective of ur 140 status... apply together or separately even 140 pending...not sure about question 1.

[qesehmk]

Reader

My hunch is that what soggadu is saying would be true. However somebody needs to confirm if it still works AFTER 140 is already filed and pending and date become current.

On another note - more than likely your 140 will be approved prior to your date becoming current - unfortunately.

Sorry for the off-topic question. Can someone with experience in Successor-in-Interest 140 amendment answer my question please?

My priority date is Dec 2007 EB2 India and hoping to file 487 by September 2012. The interesting thing is that my company will merge with another company in the same business during mid 2012. My role, job title, salary will remain the same and the company tax id and name is expected to change.

I am aware that the new company has to amend the 140 by filing successor in interest 140. My questions are

1. Is it possible to apply for premium processing for 140 amendment for successor in interest?

2. If my 140 amendment is filed and pending with USCIS, can we apply 485 if the date becomes current?


Thanks in advance for your help..

[Reader]

Reader

On another note - more than likely your 140 will be approved prior to your date becoming current - unfortunately.

Are you saying this because you believe that 140 approval should not take more that 2-3 month or because you don't believe that I will be be able to file 485 by Sep 2012?

[qesehmk]

Sorry I thought the merger is already behind. Mid 2012 ... is tricky. There are so many different combinations, its not worth predicting.

However I fully expect you to be current by Mar 2012 so you should be able to file 485 based on existing 140 then.

Are you saying this because you believe that 140 approval should not take more that 2-3 month or because you don't believe that I will be be able to file 485 by Sep 2012?

[nayekal]

Sorry for the off-topic question. Can someone with experience in Successor-in-Interest 140 amendment answer my question please?

My priority date is Dec 2007 EB2 India and hoping to file 487 by September 2012. The interesting thing is that my company will merge with another company in the same business during mid 2012. My role, job title, salary will remain the same and the company tax id and name is expected to change.

I am aware that the new company has to amend the 140 by filing successor in interest 140. My questions are

1. Is it possible to apply for premium processing for 140 amendment for successor in interest?

2. If my 140 amendment is filed and pending with USCIS, can we apply 485 if the date becomes current?


Thanks in advance for your help..

I went through the same scenario, when I had my I-140 approved. My 140 got approved and my company got merged with another company.

Later had to go for H1 ext and this is what my attorney said. No matter a company got sold or merged, you don't need to do any amendments immediately for an approved or pending 140, but whenever you are supposed apply I485 or H1 ext, you have do an amendment.

[Spectator]

Spec

You left the 12K already alloted to I&C to be subtracted from the 31K

31K SOFAD required to clear upto 15 APR07 backlog.


EB5 6.0K
EB1 12.0k
Normal allocation 5.6K
-------
23.6K

Assuming 23.6 is already alloted to I&C

Balance required to reach 31K = 7.4K

EB1 end of July 21.5 + 12 = 33.5
EB2 end of July = 29.5


Balance left 17K
Please correct me if I am wrong

Kanmani,

You are calculating in an entirely different way and I can't fully understand your calculation.

What has already been given is not relevant to my calculation. Only what is finally given is important. The 31k represents what is needed to cover all the cases to 15APR07 if Porting/PWMB/Misc total about 5k.

The 31k is made up of the 26k known qualified cases from Demand/Inventory plus an allowance for Porting/PWMB.

As Q said, if Porting/PWMB approvals for FY2011 are low enough, then there are just enough visas to cover everything. That requires the lowest possible estimates to be true, which is certainly possible. In that case SOFAD would have to be nearer 28.5/29k.

That assumes USCIS approve the full 12k mentioned in FY2011. I don't think they will, so a higher SOFAD becomes possible.

As a PS to Q, our slight difference in what the 19k represented has no effect on the calculation either. It has everything to do with how much SOFAD is required to cover the COD movement and where that comes from.

[indiaeb2]

Hi Q - when you get time, can you please update your post #1 with the expected or predicted movement and SOFAD for FY2012. Thank you.