EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

I also feel that EB3 -> EB2 porting wont surpass the 6K mark and it's surely not true that almost everybody from EB3 can port to EB2. However I have a feeling that some of Ron Gotcher's comments are sometimes too strong.

On the saturation related to EB3 -> EB2 porting: isn't it expected that there will be a steady flow of EB3 candidates willing to port to EB2 since someone from EB3 category might not be eligible now for EB2 but can attain credentials 1 - 2 years down the line. Maybe we will get a better idea in the next couple of years when we will have data to judge the EB3 -> EB2 porting trend for 2009, 2010 and 2011.

Thanks!

pch03,
Very good point, not only that like OP(don't remember exactly but said employer got 2000 employees and will start porting most of them), it will not be that easy for same employer or matter of fact even for the new employer to keep on filing for new EB2 positions... here are some thing any employer have to consider before filing new PERM/i140 application..

1. Does the employer have a EB2 job opening(s) to start PERM process in the first place...
2. If answer to Q1 is yes, then once he promote EB3 employee to EB2 position what will happen to the current EB3 position?
3. Employer can not tailor new positions to fit current or future employee.... that means the position he/she is applying PERM (EB1/EB2/EB3) should be well documented
4. How many employees he is considering for porting , $$ for porting also need to show supporting financial(ability to pay)
5. Also on every PERM/i140 application with DOL/USCIS employer need to indicate current number of employees.
6. If the employer is submitting new PERM/i140 for EB2 positions and there is no change in # of employees,or decrease, then that will trigger a red flag at DOL and USCIS...
7. If the employer found guilty/at fault, then he/she will be fined and can not file new PERM cases...

So there should be a break-even point some where which we should be able to find, hopefully, this year based on the trending!

[qesehmk]

Friends,

While we are gathering here to keep track of our GCs... I would like to know if any one of you know any good volunteer-non-profit organizations.

I am wondering if we could start giving visibility to such organizations by listing them here. Sharing information... and who knows one of us may want to go and volunteer some time for society!

This is just an initial idea. Any suggestions for how could we better do this ... are welcome. Feel free to post those suggestions under a thread by the same name.

Best Regards,
Q

[veni001]

Friends,

While we are gathering here to keep track of our GCs... I would like to know if you know if any one of you know any good volunteer-non-profit organizations.

I am wondering if we could start giving visibility to such organizations by listing them here. Sharing information... and who knows one of us may want to go and volunteer some time for society!

This is just an initial idea. Any suggestions for how could we better do this ... are welcome. Feel free to post those suggestions under a thread by the same name.

Best Regards,
Q

That's indeed a very good idea.

[pch053]

I can think of the organization KIVA (http://www.kiva.org/); there main administrative office is in San Francisco though they are spread all over the world. They loan money to individuals/organizations for undertaking any projects or business ventures. The borrower is supposed to pay back the loan in future. People lend money specific to a person/project and can also track the progress, i.e. whether the entire loan has been raised for the project or the person is repaying back the loan, etc. One can see the list of projects that are currently getting funded at http://www.kiva.org/lend. I came to know about this organization a few months back and so far my experience has been positive.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Thanks PCH. I will put this in the other section.

Meanwhile.. updated header to simplify understanding with new image and format.

I can think of the organization KIVA (http://www.kiva.org/); there main administrative office is in San Francisco though they are spread all over the world. They loan money to individuals/organizations for undertaking any projects or business ventures. The borrower is supposed to pay back the loan in future. People lend money specific to a person/project and can also track the progress, i.e. whether the entire loan has been raised for the project or the person is repaying back the loan, etc. One can see the list of projects that are currently getting funded at http://www.kiva.org/lend. I came to know about this organization a few months back and so far my experience has been positive.

Thanks!

[leo07]

I used to religiously volunteer for Take Stock in children and currently a member of Red Cross; Eexcept for taking classes, I haven't spent much volunteer time with Red Cross NCA. I can talk to either of them, if you can tell me, what I must "talk" or what information I'd need to proceed further.

It's really a good idea.

[gcseeker]

Teddy

I absolutely agree. Even for EB2 having the EAD itself is a huge step in gaining some stability and freedom from the immense tension of stamping one undergoes every time in the home country.

On the other hand about the question of good NGO's raised by Q , there is one particular organization which is doing a lot to end child abuse in India. It has been featured in many places and the founder also recently won the CNN women of the year award .She has spoken on TED ( by the way if you want to check out inspiring speeches do watch TED for many speakers ) .

http://www.ted.com/speakers/sunitha_krishnan.html

http://www.hinduonnet.com/mp/2009/07...3050560100.htm

http://www.unodc.org/india/rha_sunit...nan190408.html

The video content is present on the TED website ,the other links are from the hindu newspaper and United nations office.They are a 501(c) organization in the states as well and contributions are tax exempt. Please feel free to move the post to a different section if attention would be diverted.Also the link can bring tears to one's eyes due to some hard hitting reality.

I have a few more Organizations in mind which are genuine ,internationally acclaimed are really doing some good work, do not wish to flood this thread.I will post in the charities thread when that comes up.

Q even for EB2 having EAD is absolutely great, it allows spouses to work and gives much needed stability. For me and Leo007 both of us were so close and yet so far, for now getting EAD is almost like getting GC. For those like me in consulting its like if and only we will get the next extension. Also in the current climate even going home for a vacation is equivalent to inviting trouble at visa stamping and POE.

[qesehmk]

gcseeker

appreciate it. i am really encouraged by posts like yours and leo and veni and others in support of this idea of sharing information about NGOs / 501c's / Non-profit/not-for-profits.

However we certainly do not want those who come lookng for immigration related information to be bombarded with that information unless they want to go out and seek it from that forum. So if you could, PLEASE post it under that particular forum.

Thanks again.

Teddy

I absolutely agree. Even for EB2 having the EAD itself is a huge step in gaining some stability and freedom from the immense tension of stamping one undergoes every time in the home country.

On the other hand about the question of good NGO's raised by Q , there is one particular organization which is doing a lot to end child abuse in India. It has been featured in many places and the founder also recently won the CNN women of the year award .She has spoken on TED ( by the way if you want to check out inspiring speeches do watch TED for many speakers ) .

http://www.ted.com/speakers/sunitha_krishnan.html

http://www.hinduonnet.com/mp/2009/07...3050560100.htm

http://www.unodc.org/india/rha_sunit...nan190408.html

The video content is present on the TED website ,the other links are from the hindu newspaper and United nations office.They are a 501(c) organization in the states as well and contributions are tax exempt. Please feel free to move the post to a different section if attention would be diverted.Also the link can bring tears to one's eyes due to some hard hitting reality.

I have a few more Organizations in mind which are genuine ,internationally acclaimed are really doing some good work, do not wish to flood this thread.I will post in the charities thread when that comes up.

[TeddyKoochu]

New Demand data is out. Eb2-China's numbers are marginally down which is good. Nothing is expected in the VB for EB2-India.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[alex99]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[zenmaster]

Pleasantly surprised to find Q's blog on google search
I was searching for "immigration reform news" and found this forum
How can i not join this forum; I have been a silent admirer of Q, T and many others at iv...
Kudos to all of you for keeping the discussion so healthy and lively !!!

[leo07]

In Demand Data used for Jan 2011 VB: there were 13,125 EB2-I apps prior to 2007( 2006 apps)
In Demand Data used for Mar 2011 VB: there were 13,175 EB2-I apps prior to 2007( 2006 apps)

Not really a good news, but totally not unexpected either.

[qesehmk]

Teddy / Leo agree w both of you. No date movement expected for EB2I. But its not a bad news either. The conversions are just enough to consume annual quota.

New Demand data is out. Eb2-China's numbers are marginally down which is good. Nothing is expected in the VB for EB2-India.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

In Demand Data used for Jan 2011 VB: there were 13,125 EB2-I apps prior to 2007( 2006 apps)
In Demand Data used for Mar 2011 VB: there were 13,175 EB2-I apps prior to 2007( 2006 apps)

Not really a good news, but totally not unexpected either.

Alex, Ravi

Thanks for joining us! Welcome. Look forward to your thoughts too.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Pleasantly surprised to find Q's blog on google search
I was searching for "immigration reform news" and found this forum
How can i not join this forum; I have been a silent admirer of Q, T and many others at iv...
Kudos to all of you for keeping the discussion so healthy and lively !!!

[TeluguBidda]

In Demand Data used for Jan 2011 VB: there were 13,125 EB2-I apps prior to 2007( 2006 apps)
In Demand Data used for Mar 2011 VB: there were 13,175 EB2-I apps prior to 2007( 2006 apps)

Not really a good news, but totally not unexpected either.

Isn't it actually good news and continue to be good news as long as the pending #s prior to 2007 continue to be around 13,000, until July 1st 2011? Does this # seem to indicate that Porting cases are not in thousands, significant I agree, but definetly not in thousands?

[arorasa]

Isn't it actually good news and continue to be good news as long as the pending #s prior to 2007 continue to be around 13,000, until July 1st 2011? Does this # seem to indicate that Porting cases are not in thousands, significant I agree, but definetly not in thousands?

Since demand went up by 50 and the monthly quota is 250, I assume that 300 porting cases are coming up each month . Which translates to 3600 a year. Q ? Spec? Teddy?

[qesehmk]

Yes. That's the logical conclusion. There are other reasons (declines / withdrawals / ROW unprocessed cases) why these numbers would change. But everything else being equal ... that's a good logical conclusion.

Since demand went up by 50 and the monthly quota is 250, I assume that 300 porting cases are coming up each month . Which translates to 3600 a year. Q ? Spec? Teddy?

[leo07]

It would actually be more than that. The cases that are upgraded & approved in these months will not even appear in the demand. They use the Visa number, but do not show up in the demand data necessarily.

[veni001]

Yes. That's the logical conclusion. There are other reasons (declines / withdrawals / ROW unprocessed cases) why these numbers would change. But everything else being equal ... that's a good logical conclusion.

Q,
I think we may not be close to the actual, we know its started as 13,125 in OCT 2010 and then By DEC 2010 it is 13,150 and then JAN 2011 it is back to 13,125 and nor for march it is 13,175.

Let's take this...

1,678 EB2I pending with PD before May 2006 as of 10-01-2010 and then
there are 1,612 EB2I pending with PD before May 2006 as of 01-05-2011

which means a net 66 reduction and Q1 allocation of 7,00 visas - this does not mean 636 ported in Q1? b'se we don't know how many got denied/withdrawn and how many PWMB applied during this period.

[qesehmk]

I agree w you and that's why I said the logic is correct "DIRECTIONALLY".

Q,
I think we may not be close to the actual, we know its started as 13,125 in OCT 2010 and then By DEC 2010 it is 13,150 and then JAN 2011 it is back to 13,125 and nor for march it is 13,175.

Let's take this...

1,678 EB2I pending with PD before May 2006 as of 10-01-2010 and then
there are 1,612 EB2I pending with PD before May 2006 as of 01-05-2011

which means a net 66 reduction and Q1 allocation of 7,00 visas - this does not mean 636 ported in Q1? b'se we don't know how many got denied/withdrawn and how many PWMB applied during this period.

[whereismygclost]

Firstly, thank your Q,Teddy,Spectator and others for their detailed analysis and keeping the hopes of many of us eb2-I alive. Really appreciate it.Been following your post for a while now.Based on the current demand data published does it mean that the EB3-EB2 porting is less than expected?

[veni001]

Firstly, thank your Q,Teddy,Spectator and others for their detailed analysis and keeping the hopes of many of us eb2-I alive. Really appreciate it.Been following your post for a while now.Based on the current demand data published does it mean that the EB3-EB2 porting is less than expected?

Could be as long as the demand data, month to month, will not have significant jumps.

[pch053]

I would also be interested to see if we can shed any light on the #'s of EB3->EB2 porting during the last quarter and extrapolate it for the year. I think Q assumed 6,000 EB3 -> EB2 porting while predicitng EB2-I movement and that's probably more of an upper bound, i.e. it's very unlikely that EB3->EB2 porting will exceed 6,000 for the year. I saw in trackitt where people are predicting the EB3->EB2 porting #'s to be as high as 10K - 25K (25K sounded ridiculous anyway), though I don't feel the porting will be anywhere near that range. Can we get any idea on the EB3->EB2 porting based on the change/reduction in EB3-I pending cases? This might be difficult as the local office and consular processing cases are probably not listed in the inventory that we all see.

[TeluguBidda]

I would also be interested to see if we can shed any light on the #'s of EB3->EB2 porting during the last quarter and extrapolate it for the year. I think Q assumed 6,000 EB3 -> EB2 porting while predicitng EB2-I movement and that's probably more of an upper bound, i.e. it's very unlikely that EB3->EB2 porting will exceed 6,000 for the year. I saw in trackitt where people are predicting the EB3->EB2 porting #'s to be as high as 10K - 25K (25K sounded ridiculous anyway), though I don't feel the porting will be anywhere near that range. Can we get any idea on the EB3->EB2 porting based on the change/reduction in EB3-I pending cases? This might be difficult as the local office and consular processing cases are probably not listed in the inventory that we all see.

People are known to express their personal feelings without any sort of concrete evidence or believable guidance. Also, there are too many people indulging in poor taste of the language, spitting verbal venom on each other. To summarize, except for this Blog / website, I have not seen any "reasonable" guidance elsewhere.

Bottomline, nobody knows real magnitude of porting although we can be cautiously optimistic that it is exaggerated in other websites. 5000 seems to be a reasonable number.

[qesehmk]

Earlier I had assumed 6K porting. But now I am more towards 3-4K. I think 15-25K porting talk is not worthy of paying any attn whatsoever. Stay cool... Spec Teddy also think this number is 3-4K.

p.s. - If you didn't see it, couple of pages back I listed an alternative method to deduce SOFAD this year. Check it out.... because it gives you an idea of pure SOFAD i.e. the one that actually will reduce backlog. (in other words it doesn't matter there how much conversions happen).

[soggadu]

Q and others...Newbbie here... have been following the blog for some time... I believe come last quarter of 2011, EB2 C and I should make same progress cut off dates wise ( though C has less numbers pending ). With current scenario do you think of a possibility where CIS move the dates to end of 2007 to accommodate EB2 C too?