EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Veni

Est demand using that approach would be 59K for EB1+EB2ROW. 74K is the quota for those two combined. So FA+FD = 15K. Then you add EB2IC quota of 5.5K .... thats your total SOFAD = 20.5K !

Makes sense?

Yes,
Thanks Q

[veni001]

According to the info i got from my friends who are working in Big indian outsource companies it is hard in these days to convense the management to apply for EB1.
Some one can shed some light on this if you guys have any contacts

Happyboy,
Not only economy but also Kazarian Guidance Memo dated 08-18-2010 has some impact on EB1 applications, we will know in few more months!

[TeluguBidda]

Happyboy,
Not only economy but also Kazarian Guidance Memo dated 08-18-2010 has some impact on EB1 applications, we will know in few more months!

If they are unable to apply in EB-1, they will end up applying in EB-2. Wouldn't it be true in that case that there would not be any positive impact on spillover for EB-2?

If they are from retrogressed countries, priority date would come into play. However, I doubt if there is a large difference between # of EB-1IC applicants vs. other countries.

[qesehmk]

Bidda

There are 11-12K EB1-IC candidates. Besides .... not all EB1 ROW candidates may be able to find a sponsor!! Thirdly ... the EB2 itself is not exempt from all the scrutiny because of Kazarian case and the memo. So we will see EB2 standards toughen too resulting into increased cycle time (which in the long run doesn't help or hurt, but in the short run helps.)

If they are unable to apply in EB-1, they will end up applying in EB-2. Wouldn't it be true in that case that there would not be any positive impact on spillover for EB-2?

If they are from retrogressed countries, priority date would come into play. However, I doubt if there is a large difference between # of EB-1IC applicants vs. other countries.

[veni001]

Bidda

There are 11-12K EB1-IC candidates. Besides .... not all EB1 ROW candidates may be able to find a sponsor!! Thirdly ... the EB2 itself is not exempt from all the scrutiny because of Kazarian case and the memo. So we will see EB2 standards toughen too resulting into increased cycle time (which in the long run doesn't help or hurt, but in the short run helps.)

Also i140 trending in the coming months could shed some light on this! Even 10K( I&C) moving from EB1 to EB2 will definitely help the backlogged.

[TeddyKoochu]

Also i140 trending in the coming months could shed some light on this! Even 10K( I&C) moving from EB1 to EB2 will definitely help the backlogged.

That’s exactly my point, all the conservative predictions are indication atleast 20K SOFAD. If we assume that EB2 ROW declines by say 25% based on the Trackitt trend and EB1 declines even by 25% (The Trackitt trend shows a 400% decline - 1/4th) then the SOFAD will be in excess of 30K easily and this will puts the dates into 2007.

[qesehmk]

Teddy, you know i have been a great proponent of trackitt data for predictions. So yes ... it is trending very favorably. But in spirit of our desire to get secondary and tertiary confirmation of the trend ... I would like to see trackitt pending and declines trending up or at least at a higher level compared to 2010.

I am not seeing that yet. Do you?

That’s exactly my point, all the conservative predictions are indication atleast 20K SOFAD. If we assume that EB2 ROW declines by say 25% based on the Trackitt trend and EB1 declines even by 25% (The Trackitt trend shows a 400% decline - 1/4th) then the SOFAD will be in excess of 30K easily and this will puts the dates into 2007.

[veni001]

Teddy, you know i have been a great proponent of trackitt data for predictions. So yes ... it is trending very favorably. But in spirit of our desire to get secondary and tertiary confirmation of the trend ... I would like to see trackitt pending and declines trending up or at least at a higher level compared to 2010.

I am not seeing that yet. Do you?

Teddy and Q,
Assuming that i140 trending will stay the same(flat) in the coming months, we really don't know how many, if any, supposed to be EB1 cases are now being filed in EB2. Also we don't have the labor filing/certified data for the last four months.

So, we really don't have second check to base on

[qesehmk]

Veni

Although its hard to quantify EB1 and EB2-ROW separately. Its relatively easier to calculate together. Thats what the second confirmation we calculated a few posts back using i140 data above.

Teddy and Q,
Assuming that i140 trending will stay the same(flat) in the coming months, we really don't know how many, if any, supposed to be EB1 cases are now being filed in EB2. Also we don't have the labor filing/certified data for the last four months.

So, we really don't have second check to base on

[veni001]

Veni

Although its hard to quantify EB1 and EB2-ROW separately. Its relatively easier to calculate together. That's what the second confirmation we calculated a few posts back using i140 data above.

Q,
I got that, my point was on EB1(I&C).
EB1 I&C usage increased by 130% in 2010 when compared to 2007. If this goes back to 2006 or 2007 level then we are talking about an additional 7k for the backlogged EB2(I&C), assuming ROW-EB1/2 stay the same.

Note: It's hard to determine just from i140 trending, if EB1(I&C) --> EB2 is actually happening, we can estimate to some extent only if we can get PERM receipt/certified data from DOL similar to i140 data from USCIS.

[angryclubs]

Guys check this out - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...r-fy-2011.html

[qesehmk]

This Guru has been visiting our pages for sure and reproduced what we have been writing into another format. That's good. I know some people have been asking for this kind of tool where they can change the parameters and out comes the SOFAD.

Thanks AC.

Guys check this out - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...r-fy-2011.html

[getgreensoon]

This is my first post. I have been reading qesehmk and teddy for a long time on immigration voice and found this forum in a google search.

If at all the dates move to Jan or Feb 07 for fiscal 2011, do you guys think that USCIS will have to open dates upto at least dec 07 to get more applications for the next year or else waste a lot of visas ? Another way to state the same question may be if dates don't move beyond feb07 by the end of this year, will it be possible that by Dec of 2011 they open at least 6-7 months for taking additional applications ?

[veni001]

This is my first post. I have been reading qesehmk and teddy for a long time on immigration voice and found this forum in a google search.

If at all the dates move to Jan or Feb 07 for fiscal 2011, do you guys think that USCIS will have to open dates upto at least dec 07 to get more applications for the next year or else waste a lot of visas ? Another way to state the same question may be if dates don't move beyond feb07 by the end of this year, will it be possible that by Dec of 2011 they open at least 6-7 months for taking additional applications ?

I don't think so, now USCIS got good handle on i485 ( also i140 ) they will be moving dates based on demand and supply!

[bieber]

I don't think they move dates beyond jul07 this year, if they want to consider new 485s they will have to just make it current for a month and then start the same procedure.

if they move dates to some time in between Jul07 and C, they may have to face law suits

[qesehmk]

Welcome GGS ... and thanks. We have talked about this many times in the past. The common understanding is that it can go eitherway ... but it shouldn't matter to GC aspirants in terms of getting a GC. where it does matter is you get EAD and can switch companies.

If I were to bet, I would say, likely USCIS will move dates significantly forward and take in large number of apps in and then regtrogress dates back. The likelihood of that happening in 2011 is more when they have cleared cases upto may 2007. So likely we may see such large movement in 2012 rather than 11.

p.s. Unless EB1 trends significantly lower this year providing much larger SOFAD.

This is my first post. I have been reading qesehmk and teddy for a long time on immigration voice and found this forum in a google search.

If at all the dates move to Jan or Feb 07 for fiscal 2011, do you guys think that USCIS will have to open dates upto at least dec 07 to get more applications for the next year or else waste a lot of visas ? Another way to state the same question may be if dates don't move beyond feb07 by the end of this year, will it be possible that by Dec of 2011 they open at least 6-7 months for taking additional applications ?

[viypr07]

"angryclubs

Guys check this out - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...r-fy-2011.html "

Thanks angryclubs for the link. That site also has this link:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html

[gcseeker]

I tend to agree with Q's take on this. For many people EAD itself could help a lot in reducing the tension in this wait since they can start utilizing the AC21 portability rules and also feel a little more secure about settling down here. Coming to what would USCIS do, they will probably not dare to declare it current in 2012.If they manage to clear till May 2007 PD by end of 2011 , they might decide to move the date significantly forward to maybe May 2008 by early 2012 and fill the pipeline and then retrogress the dates back to say Oct/Nov 2007.

USCIS learnt a good lesson with their previous fiasco of declaring things to be current . They will not repeat that again. Also money plays a big role in this consideration and with deficit hawks in place on most congressional committe's ,each and every department is supposed to either reduce spending or come up with other novel means of funding themselves.One such patented trick of the USCIS is to move dates forward ,fill the pipeline ...get people to file 485's and then keep on renewing the 485's with long wait times.

Welcome GGS ... and thanks. We have talked about this many times in the past. The common understanding is that it can go eitherway ... but it shouldn't matter to GC aspirants in terms of getting a GC. where it does matter is you get EAD and can switch companies.

If I were to bet, I would say, likely USCIS will move dates significantly forward and take in large number of apps in and then regtrogress dates back. The likelihood of that happening in 2011 is more when they have cleared cases upto may 2007. So likely we may see such large movement in 2012 rather than 11.

p.s. Unless EB1 trends significantly lower this year providing much larger SOFAD.

[happyboy]

Getting EAD will solve almost all the issues as long want to work and able to find a job.
horn your skills to market.

[qesehmk]

In case of EB3 (yes three) .... this is actually true. If you think about it ... if you are going to have a GC only 10 years ... later ....and if you have filed 485, then that is almost as good as having 10 years of stability. You can keep renewing EAD!

Getting EAD will solve almost all the issues as long want to work and able to find a job.
horn your skills to market.

[TeddyKoochu]

"angryclubs

Guys check this out - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...r-fy-2011.html "

Thanks angryclubs for the link. That site also has this link:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html

Friends this link works quite well.

[TeddyKoochu]

In case of EB3 (yes three) .... this is actually true. If you think about it ... if you are going to have a GC only 10 years ... later ....and if you have filed 485, then that is almost as good as having 10 years of stability. You can keep renewing EAD!

Q even for EB2 having EAD is absolutely great, it allows spouses to work and gives much needed stability. For me and Leo007 both of us were so close and yet so far, for now getting EAD is almost like getting GC. For those like me in consulting its like if and only we will get the next extension. Also in the current climate even going home for a vacation is equivalent to inviting trouble at visa stamping and POE.

[TeddyKoochu]

Acknowledgement - Attorney Ron Gotcher
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...2-backlog.html

Predictions aside he makes a very interesting point about Porting, he is correct in saying that it will saturate in sometime.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

I can feel the pain. You absolutely right ...

Q even for EB2 having EAD is absolutely great, it allows spouses to work and gives much needed stability. For me and Leo007 both of us were so close and yet so far, for now getting EAD is almost like getting GC. For those like me in consulting its like if and only we will get the next extension. Also in the current climate even going home for a vacation is equivalent to inviting trouble at visa stamping and POE.

Acknowledgement - Attorney Ron Gotcher
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...2-backlog.html

Predictions aside he makes a very interesting point about Porting, he is correct in saying that it will saturate in sometime.

His comments are quite subjective ... But for those in search of hope ... this will resonate. See ... that's what I think we need to avoid. People shouldn't get trapped into false hope. I do think that conversions are not as great. 3K is a reasonable number. 6K is the absolute ceiling. But this year the big negative is that 10K FB is missing. On the plus PERM surge of ROW EB2 is not going to be as strong. And EB1 is going to be the wild card that decides how much EB2 IC gets cleared. So lets keep looking for clues to where EB1 is headed.

[pch053]

I also feel that EB3 -> EB2 porting wont surpass the 6K mark and it's surely not true that almost everybody from EB3 can port to EB2. However I have a feeling that some of Ron Gotcher's comments are sometimes too strong.

On the saturation related to EB3 -> EB2 porting: isn't it expected that there will be a steady flow of EB3 candidates willing to port to EB2 since someone from EB3 category might not be eligible now for EB2 but can attain credentials 1 - 2 years down the line. Maybe we will get a better idea in the next couple of years when we will have data to judge the EB3 -> EB2 porting trend for 2009, 2010 and 2011.

Thanks!