Thanks! I was pretty hopeful in the summer. But now i seem to be on the border where i might not make it for next year even for EAD (effect of the Sep Bulletin :-( ). I havent really started looking for a different oppurtunity but i know i passed up 2earlier this year thinking this was going to be my year and didnt want to go thro the whole labor... I-140. I think i am confused like most of us here.
Originally Posted by Spectator
Looks like DOS was told or shown in May that they will get less demand for EB1 cases and DOS altered NVC to start processing cases in advance. Later in July - AUG USCIS wanted to clear cases ( EB1) so DOS ran out of visas. USCIS lied to DOS. I won't be surprised if DOS hit back and when they run out of demand make date current and punish USCIS.
Yes, that would be great. I will definitely contribute to the thread.
The only way out of this whole mess for everyone is to make sure that the whole set of unused visa no. that were lost earlier are recaptured. I am not sure whats the number that was lost.
Can some one please inform us when DOS will publish the total number of Visas allocated for FY 2012. Last year this was at 140,000.
I agree.
I am not sure about these numbers will be lost or not.
We have to make sure that these numbers were applied to EB.
I am worrying that these numbers will be lost eventually.
Last year the Report of the Visa Office 2010 was published on January 20, 2011.
That represents actual visas issued, so we will know how many FB and EB visas were used.
For FY2012, DOS will use the minimum number until USCIS provides the figures necessary to make the accurate determination.
The allocation of visas for FY2011 was finally confirmed as 140,000 in the August VB, since USCIS did not provide the information required until June 9th.
When the Report of the Visa Office 2011 is published, we can determine within a few what the allocation will be for FY2012.
I don't expect any spare visas from FB in FY2012.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-12-2011 at 12:18 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
EB3I-->EB2I porting
I am just trying to guesstimate EB3I-->EB2I porting. There are ~55,000 EB3I-485s. Making simple (worst case?) assumption that 20% of folks succeed in porting, results in 55,000*0.2 = 11,000. Assuming 4-5 K porting already happened in FY2011, we can expect another 6-7K max in FY2012(This assumes that EB2 priority dates reach Sep/Oct 2007 by mid-2012). Make sense??
ok, thanks Q. I'll take a look at those threads as well.
- M
I think we are assuming a lot. Please remember that all EB3 want to port to EB2. They keyword here is want. That woudl mean that EB3 are looking for ways to port to EB2. Just because 90 % of EB3 haver not found a company and a EB2 qualifiing job does not mean that they have stopped trying. Using economy as a limiter we can argue for or against EB3-EB2 porting at a macro level but at the micro level when things work out for a EB3 and he/she gets a chance to port he/she will go ahead and port. That is something which cannot be determined or estimated.
So 10 % calculation can be used for estimating with the caveat that the actual could be very different from this 10% estimation. Plus the count of 55 k is wrong because that is only EB3 India. I think the count will have to include EB3 all countries since everyone in EB3 would want to port and not just EB3 India.
There you go... more quick perm for Eb2 row and porters... this is turning out to be hell of a ride...
This would impact H1B, EB2 and EB3-EB2 Port. I dont see any impact to EB1. I can see the next couple of VB's with no date movements at all
Thanks a lot soggadu for your answers....
Did you mean "no more quick perm"?
Can you not travel on your H1? What's the situation?
Its too risky to travel on h1b unless you have a visa stamped on your passport. I visited India in May 2009 and got stuck for 6 months as i was given a 221(g) form and placed in administrative processing. Luckily my wife was on h1b at that time and came back on h4. Then i amended the case from h4 to h1.
Due to the above experience, i called parents to visit me this year and they are with me now.
Last edited by Chilli19; 08-12-2011 at 01:30 PM.
There is one +ve factor for existing EB2IC backlog. This will delay all EB2 filings... including ROW.... and will increase SOFAD.
If EB4 is affected .... all the better for EB2IC.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I thought the opposite... please explain as time permits...
If the PERM system is not available till Oct 1st and assuming when it's back it continues at the same rate as before, then we should see around 16% (2/12) decrease in PERM approvals by say April next year. This will reduce by that *2.1 EB3 to EB2 porting or EB2 ROW (EB2 I/C also but 2011 PD's are irrelevant for the spillover discussion).
To some extent, the advantage of the PERM stoppage, maybe negated by the PP in EB1C and the new push for EB5 and EB2 Entrepreneur. Thoughts?
may be.. may be not...
I am sure they will fix the system in 1 or 2 months (I think the date was 1st Oct 2011).
So say, there on an average 3K EB2-ROWs apply every month (Total of 36K annually...just a number for discussion sake). Say the system is fixed in 3 months. In the 4th month 3K + 9K people will apply.
There will be some SOFAD as a fallout of this but I do not think it will be significant.
Ofcourse if the Prevailing Wage system is down for 6 or 7 months (HIGHLY UNLIKELY), then we can say, we will have significant increase in SOFAD.
Just my thoughts...
ahh now i got it...thank you Tanu and JJ... on the other hand, just wondering why nobody is still speculating... CO has done this to clear EB2 IC ;-)
Interestingly, one more factor which would stop PWD would be government shutdowns because of budgets, debt ceilings etc. The DOL Labors for H-PERM etc... is not yet funded by user fees, and it would be shutdown, as a non-essential service.
Agree that delayed people will still file in "n"th month whenever system comes back. But some people do drop out of the line altogether because of lost opportunity., change in plans etc.
The more delay in PERM restoration will be all the better. But can't say anything now. Will have to see how long this goes. Since there are only 4000 cases mentioned in the original article ... this shouldn't last more than 2-3 months max.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
haha...
this was done because of a court order. CIS and CO have nothing to do with this. Infact they wanted it to be business as usual and implement the required changes by 1st Jan 2012. Courts came back and wanted the changes to be effective 1st Oct 2011 and stop the current incorrect process (for H2 or whichever Visa).
Last edited by skpanda; 08-12-2011 at 01:48 PM.
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