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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #6326
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    valuablehurdle,

    Based on FY2010 trending, unless documentarily qualified porting numbers (EB3I-->EB2I) are more than 500 per month EB2I should stay at 15APR2007 until some spillover numbers are made available.

    On the otherhand EB2C should see at-least two week forward movement every month starting October Bulletin.
    Hi Veni,

    Quick clarification. If all the backlogs till Apr 15th 2007 are cleared by Sep-2011 then the date needs to be moved for EB2I per monthly quote atleast by a week or two isint in order to preadjudicate the visas for the pending I-485 from Apr 15 2007 - Aug 17th 2007.

  2. #6327
    Quote Originally Posted by cbpds1 View Post
    I think we should think the American way, what does it take for us to port from EB2 to EB1 instead of waiting endlessly

    just my thought, haven't found an answer though
    If you can get some patents, I think that's more than enough for EB1. Any thing less (publishing papers and supervising, etc) will always have uncertainty.

  3. #6328
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    valuablehurdle,

    Based on FY2010 trending, unless documentarily qualified porting numbers (EB3I-->EB2I) are more than 500 per month EB2I should stay at 15APR2007 until some spillover numbers are made available.

    On the otherhand EB2C should see at-least two week forward movement every month starting October Bulletin.
    In addition to what Veni Added.

    The only time Eb2 has been going back and forth is during 2008 and early 2009 and i guess the reason for that was the 2007 fiasco as USCIS/DOS were still trying to get their hands around it, which is understandable.

    Once again if we look at the 2007 inventory it is almost double as compared to any previous years where more people have been filing in Eb2 which triggered more Labor and I140 apart from the 2007 fiasco. These two reasons combined could have resulted in the back and forth movement of dates during 2008 and 2009.

    I may be wrong but I have that USCIS have a tendency to move back the dates after 3-4 years and this happens in a cycle but then they come back nicely within the same year or the following year. I will see if i can find that graph again.

    This year and last year have been pretty consistent in terms of date movement and i think the reason is because they are able to hold the ball and i am sure they do not want to drop it again.

    There is a possibility of retrogressing depending on the head winds(specified by Senior Members earlier) which mainly are the Porting and the New Eb2 category which they just introduced.

    The SOFAD on the other hand will be dependent on EB1 filings and EB2-ROW. Based on the information(more reports and data being provided to public) it seems like they will be moving in a planned manner.

  4. #6329
    Yoda
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    Not necessarily. There are PWMB + Porting applications taht can have PD before Apr 15 2007. If atleast 300 such applications are ready for approval every month in Q1 and Q2 of FY 2012, dates will not move untill theose applications are exhausted (worst case, till May/June 2012.. that is when Spillover will start).

    Quote Originally Posted by mvinayam View Post
    Hi Veni,

    Quick clarification. If all the backlogs till Apr 15th 2007 are cleared by Sep-2011 then the date needs to be moved for EB2I per monthly quote atleast by a week or two isint in order to preadjudicate the visas for the pending I-485 from Apr 15 2007 - Aug 17th 2007.

  5. #6330
    I agree with this.

    This is very true. I think their main goal is to constrain these labors as much as they can.

    Firist, the more travel these EB immigrants can do, the higher risk that they may release US secrets to foreign countries. I think that's why they tight H1B stamping as much as they can. Many people are afriad of the background check delay, thus they have to give up the travel plans to their home country. This system wants to minimize the communication between EB immigrants and home countries.

    On the other hand, the longer these EB immigrants wait, the less chance that they will abandon GC and return to home country. If we wait for so many years for this GC, I doubt people will give it up easily and return to home country. Therefore, these labors will continue to work for them.

    Finally, for the labor cost, most of the EB immigrants are underpaid, by limiting EAD use, we have to stick to low paid jobs. It's similar with the first several years in 1900s, cheap labor from Europe built the infrastructure in east coast.

    I think these three reasons decided that Mr.CO didn't do BTM in this summer. If BTM had happened, it would be a huge relief to the EB C&I immigrants, but it's not the best for their interests.



    Quote Originally Posted by cbpds1 View Post
    Maybe CO is been provided with a new policy to contrain us folks as much as possible(akin to the H1 stamping model), in order to flush out H1 folks out of the country......I see it as a govt policy , CO is just the face of it.

    H1 petition, Labor/140 --> less hurdles --> Funds to the govt
    H1 stamping , EAD-->GC --> implement policy, block --> Less fees to be received.

  6. #6331
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Veni doesnt make sense . explain
    I think Veni probably meant "unless documentarily qualified porting numbers (EB3I-->EB2I) are less than 500 per month EB2I should stay at 15APR2007 until some spillover numbers are made available". Maybe he can correct me, if I am mistaken.

  7. #6332
    On mitbbs, one guy attended an AC21 conference and mentioned that:

    This is exactly some congressmen complained: if GC applicants can get EAD
    and AP easily, they get almost the same benefit as GC holder, what's the
    point of letting them wait 4-5 years? O agreed and promised that
    this won't happen again.

    No matter this complaint reasonable or not, a flood like 2007 seems unlikely
    to happen again in the near future.

    I think the congress people are not happy that many EB immigrants have EAD/AP for 4-5 years. Maybe that's one reason that Mr.Co didn't BTM.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbpds1 View Post
    Maybe CO is been provided with a new policy to contrain us folks as much as possible(akin to the H1 stamping model), in order to flush out H1 folks out of the country......I see it as a govt policy , CO is just the face of it.

    H1 petition, Labor/140 --> less hurdles --> Funds to the govt
    H1 stamping , EAD-->GC --> implement policy, block --> Less fees to be received.

  8. #6333
    skpanda

    I was thinking actually this scenario will finally give an credible picture about the porting. If porting is peaking at 6K it would easily give us more than 300 applications each month ( it should be double that number if porting is really that high).USCIS should have an fair handle on PWMB apps.

    If the dates do retrogress it would prove once and for all that porting is consuming numbers.



    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Not necessarily. There are PWMB + Porting applications taht can have PD before Apr 15 2007. If atleast 300 such applications are ready for approval every month in Q1 and Q2 of FY 2012, dates will not move untill theose applications are exhausted (worst case, till May/June 2012.. that is when Spillover will start).

  9. #6334
    qblogfan

    I don't think CO can justify the BTM at this point, pending invenotry has 8000 demand and full year IC quota is just 5600. we can assume spillover for granted but he has to have some kind of proof to do anything about that. If Eb1 yields same amount of SO next year, the dates will be easily in 2008 next year this time

  10. #6335
    qblogfan

    I would agree that an repeat of the July 2007 situation is simply not possible. I have stronger faith in the direction of politics ,economy and policy than the CO or the visa bulletin itself.

    1.2012 election year- Obama does not need the press going gaga over people getting GC's easily when average americans continue to suffer everyday.
    2.USCIS and DOS will get an earful from their bosses if they do this.
    3.The prospect of legal wrangles.

    Atleast I would not factor this into my calculations. Call me pessimistic but I would prefer to go with the ground numbers.

    Expecting SOFAD of 18K next year.Economy will be bad so maybe the gods will take mercy and send another 3-4k
    Unknowns: EB1 surge/gaming and porting and PWMB.

    To clear Dec 2007 -25/26K required in SOFAD.
    Even if I think SOFAD will be 22k-best case will be Sep /Oct 2007.


    I would not bet on the category getting current or pipelines getting built.Porting and EB1 surge can take care of it.

    2013 is the time I would hope finally the train leaves 2007 PD's behind.


    P.S This might be an super pessimistic view ..I would prefer to have the most worst case scenario in front of me rather than get my hopes dashed again.

    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    On mitbbs, one guy attended an AC21 conference and mentioned that:

    This is exactly some congressmen complained: if GC applicants can get EAD
    and AP easily, they get almost the same benefit as GC holder, what's the
    point of letting them wait 4-5 years? O agreed and promised that
    this won't happen again.

    No matter this complaint reasonable or not, a flood like 2007 seems unlikely
    to happen again in the near future.

    I think the congress people are not happy that many EB immigrants have EAD/AP for 4-5 years. Maybe that's one reason that Mr.Co didn't BTM.
    Last edited by gcseeker; 08-11-2011 at 04:55 PM.

  11. #6336
    Yes, I agree with you.

    The politics played a role in this last VB. The unemployment rate is high and they don't want to cause misconception that they are helping immigrants. Frankly, there is nothing wrong to BTM. The reason for delaying BTM is to make them look good. We are suffering......

    Quote Originally Posted by gcseeker View Post
    qblogfan

    I would agree that an repeat of the July 2007 situation is simply not possible. I have stronger faith in the direction of politics ,economy and policy than the CO or the visa bulletin itself.

    1.2012 election year- Obama does not need the press going gaga over people getting GC's easily when average americans continue to suffer everyday.
    2.USCIS and DOS will get an earful from their bosses if they do this.
    3.The prospect of legal wrangles.

    Atleast I would not factor this into my calculations. Call me pessimistic but I would prefer to go with the ground numbers.

    Expecting SOFAD of 18K next year.Economy will be bad so maybe the gods will take mercy and send another 3-4k
    Unknowns: EB1 surge/gaming and porting and PWMB.

    To clear Dec 2007 -25/26K required in SOFAD.
    Even if I think SOFAD will be 22k-best case will be Sep /Oct 2007.


    I would not bet on the category getting current or pipelines getting built.Porting and EB1 surge can take care of it.

    2013 is the time I would hope finally the train leaves 2007 PD's behind.

  12. #6337
    yes, what you said also makes sense.

    However, based on the current situation, it is not a sure thing that they can advance PD into 2008 in the next summer. I think maybe it will need another year's SOFAD to clean up 2007 cases. Things are going south.......we (pd2008) may have to continue to suffer for 2 years.

    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    qblogfan

    I don't think CO can justify the BTM at this point, pending invenotry has 8000 demand and full year IC quota is just 5600. we can assume spillover for granted but he has to have some kind of proof to do anything about that. If Eb1 yields same amount of SO next year, the dates will be easily in 2008 next year this time

  13. #6338
    Quote Originally Posted by gcseeker View Post
    qblogfan

    I would agree that an repeat of the July 2007 situation is simply not possible. I have stronger faith in the direction of politics ,economy and policy than the CO or the visa bulletin itself.

    1.2012 election year- Obama does not need the press going gaga over people getting GC's easily when average americans continue to suffer everyday.
    2.USCIS and DOS will get an earful from their bosses if they do this.
    3.The prospect of legal wrangles.

    Atleast I would not factor this into my calculations. Call me pessimistic but I would prefer to go with the ground numbers.

    Expecting SOFAD of 18K next year.Economy will be bad so maybe the gods will take mercy and send another 3-4k
    Unknowns: EB1 surge/gaming and porting and PWMB.

    To clear Dec 2007 -25/26K required in SOFAD.
    Even if I think SOFAD will be 22k-best case will be Sep /Oct 2007.


    I would not bet on the category getting current or pipelines getting built.Porting and EB1 surge can take care of it.

    2013 is the time I would hope finally the train leaves 2007 PD's behind.


    P.S This might be an super pessimistic view ..I would prefer to have the most worst case scenario in front of me rather than get my hopes dashed again.
    Your estimate is realistic. 2013 would be the time for late 2007 PDs.
    Also dont expect economy to add to 2012 spillover. Any change in the economy will not effect until a year i.e. 2013. Normally companies do not apply for GC immediately after they hire. They apply it normally after a year.

  14. #6339
    Yeah, I think PD 2008 need to wait for two more summers to get green.

    With the new EB2 program, the porting with be more in the next year. Additionally EB5 will be faster next FY and they may consume more visas.

    It is realistic that FY 2012 can only cover PD 2007.

    Quote Originally Posted by donvar View Post
    Your estimate is realistic. 2013 would be the time for late 2007 PDs.
    Also dont expect economy to add to 2012 spillover. Any change in the economy will not effect until a year i.e. 2013. Normally companies do not apply for GC immediately after they hire. They apply it normally after a year.

  15. #6340
    I am glad to see that we are all now becoming more on the cautious side, more realistic, and even pessimistic.

    Let the new FY begin, it will be very interesting to watch the trends in the first quarter, and then the second quarter.

    USCIS's next pending 485 inventory report will be very helpful.

  16. #6341
    Thats how i think we should see it. We have no reason to believe that next year will be better or worse compared to this year. So go with what we think we had this year - which is basically ~28K SOFAD total. So next year ~28K means approx Jan 2008 by Sep 2012.

    Will this change? Why not. But we can't say now whether it will change and in what direction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    minus one . I cant be pessimistic , even realistic .

    I have a gut feeling that the trend will not change all of a sudden, it takes time . In others view it may look like a day dream , but I like the dream for time being .
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  17. #6342
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    I am glad to see that we are all now becoming more on the cautious side, more realistic, and even pessimistic.

    Let the new FY begin, it will be very interesting to watch the trends in the first quarter, and then the second quarter.

    USCIS's next pending 485 inventory report will be very helpful.
    you seems like new in journey.. join the qtr waiting club. before it used to July waiting now its may since spill over happened in May this year.

  18. #6343
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    minus one . I cant be pessimistic , even realistic .

    I have a gut feeling that the trend will not change all of a sudden, it takes time . In others view it may look like a day dream , but I like the dream for time being .
    K, not being realistic or being in dream can lead to loss of precious time and planning. For example, there are various young guys in my company, who have PDs in 2010, 2011. They all affectionately call me bhai, and I remind them time and again of how this entire system moves, and how much dependent we are on SO. There is one guy, whose mother is alone in India. He read somewhere about a supposed thumb rule of PD + 5 years for green card. There is another guy, who thinks dates automatically move one year at least every year. These guys are like 25-26 years of age, single, and there are various avenues, countries, open to them.

    My personal belief, at least at this point is to be on the conservative side, because immigration relates to lot of important life decisions for many people.

    And a good balance of judgement is only obtained when there are both conservative, as well as optimistic dreamers, in any forum, I believe.

  19. #6344
    Nishant

    Well put and I just wanted to type the same thing. In the movie "Negotiator" Samuel Jackson says always start off with the worst case scenario to get an baseline.


    The pessimistic expectation for 2012 is actually helping me take some important career decisions.I will illustrate for the benefit of others.

    Decision: Accept an promotion or seek an job change with nice hike in salary. (PD-Nov 2007)

    Scenario 1:Rosy expectation that Dates will move to 2008 in 2012

    If that is my expectation ,I will not risk moving to a new job or seek an job promotion since that would essentially mean that I would have to redo the whole labour and I-140 process . If the dates just move and then retrogress...I will be stuck with the same job with an EAD since AC-21 will kick in and I will not be able to get the job I wanted untill the whole gc tangle is over...which means same old job till 2013 end with no improvement in career and not getting any younger.

    Scenario 2: Realistic Expectation: 2012 will not enable late 2007 PD's

    This might prompt me to seek a new job right now.Move to the company with hike in salary and position in 2012 and maybe one year later get back in line in 2013.
    By that time if the optimistic expectation is right ,anyhow dates would have moved and I will get GC with new job ,salary hike with no worries of AC-21 by end of 2013.

    I will not lose much by the jump but have everything to gain. Always the fear of RFE's on the I-140 will be there.....that is dependent on the personal comfort level.

    Same goes for 2008 PD guys who might make an nice jump in career due to this decision.....


    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails"

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    K, not being realistic or being in dream can lead to loss of precious time and planning. For example, there are various young guys in my company, who have PDs in 2010, 2011. They all affectionately call me bhai, and I remind them time and again of how this entire system moves, and how much dependent we are on SO. There is one guy, whose mother is alone in India. He read somewhere about a supposed thumb rule of PD + 5 years for green card. There is another guy, who thinks dates automatically move one year at least every year. These guys are like 25-26 years of age, single, and there are various avenues, countries, open to them.

    My personal belief, at least at this point is to be on the conservative side, because immigration relates to lot of important life decisions for many people.

    And a good balance of judgement is only obtained when there are both conservative, as well as optimistic dreamers, in any forum, I believe.

  20. #6345
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Additional details and Clarification on E-1/E-2/H1B/EB-2 Entrepreneurs


  21. #6346
    I think people with PDs post 2008 April should really jump the ship in case they get better job offer. Worst off are people with PD in Oct-Dec 2007 timeframe.

  22. #6347
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Thank you for the find. In some ways its good that you can be working for your own company while waiting for the GC. Establishing BoD as per INS requirements will be the hard part.

  23. #6348
    I think what you mean is May 2008 forward has no hope of becoming current during 2012 - so one might as well change jobs and get a good hike.

    I think by and large I would agree but with a caveat - these people need to take care of their PD retention OR be prepared to lose PD.


    Quote Originally Posted by ssvp22 View Post
    I think people with PDs post 2008 April should really jump the ship in case they get better job offer. Worst off are people with PD in Oct-Dec 2007 timeframe.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  24. #6349
    I agree with you guys. but moving jobs and porting your PD is not easy these days...

    just few facts to keep in mind before you move...
    for instance in my case...my priority date is feb 2011(eb2). i got couple of new offers...defnitely there is hike in salary and position but there is a big catch...
    1)most of the full time job offering companies are not ready for EB2 even though you qualify.
    2)you need to wait minimum 1 year for them to start process
    3) will take another 6-8months before they file labor and 3-5 months for labor approval
    4) incase your case is audited you wont know how long that may take
    5) 140 approval will take another 6-10months time in normal processing



    one of the recent offers i got HR mentioned that incase i get 3 year extension with my current 140 then they will start my gc process 1 year before my h1b expiry.

    my suggestion would be if your job is secured and you already have 140 approved and current job is good, stick to it rather than moving to new place ...finding fulltimes in H1b is tough...if you are in 5th or 6th year of h1b it is even tough(even if you have 140 approval)

    if thinking of moving to consultancy companies...if you are experienced and willing to relocate anywhere in usa you can find job.....but H1b transfer and visting your home country(for visa stamp) would be biggest hurdles...

    another major thing to keep in mind if recession or us market is not doing good....we may get SOFAD more for GC...but for H1b's it will be bad..
    just my 2 cents..

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I think what you mean is May 2008 forward has no hope of becoming current during 2012 - so one might as well change jobs and get a good hike.

    I think by and large I would agree but with a caveat - these people need to take care of their PD retention OR be prepared to lose PD.
    Last edited by mesan123; 08-11-2011 at 10:12 PM.

  25. #6350
    very nicely put ..i have pd oct'07 and have been tempted by promotion/hike offers by recruiters...but don't think it is worth going through the whole process again ..just my personal opinion ...have seen my dear friend wait for labor audit to be cleared for 2.5 years and just feel it is better to bite the bullet and hope that 2012 i will be free ...
    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    I agree with you guys. but moving jobs and porting your PD is not easy these days...

    just few facts to keep in mind before you move...
    for instance in my case...my priority date is feb 2011(eb2). i got couple of new offers...defnitely there is hike in salary and position but there is a big catch...
    1)most of the full time job offering companies are not ready for EB2 even though you qualify.
    2)you need to wait minimum 1 year for them to start process
    3) will take another 6-8months before they file labor and 3-5 months for labor approval
    4) incase your case is audited you wont know how long that may take
    5) 140 approval will take another 6-10months time in normal processing



    one of the recent offers i got HR mentioned that incase i get 3 year extension with my current 140 then they will start my gc process 1 year before my h1b expiry.

    my suggestion would be if your job is secured and you already have 140 approved and current job is good, stick to it rather than moving to new place ...finding fulltimes in H1b is tough...if you are in 5th or 6th year of h1b it is even tough(even if you have 140 approval)

    if thinking of moving to consultancy companies...if you are experienced and willing to relocate anywhere in usa you can find job.....but H1b transfer and visting your home country(for visa stamp) would be biggest hurdles...

    just my 2 cents..

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