EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Sorry for the delay in replying. I somewhat misread your post.

The comment was made in the context of why there may be more future Porting from EB3 other than India, so it was implicitly talking about EB3 only.

So it is not an issue for EB1 or EB2-Current. So far, EB2-Retrogressed sees little effect from LO cases being added to the Inventory.

Spec, and All,
Thanks for clarifying me on this; in any event, we have been counting ROW porting as part of new EB2ROW demand. Here is my reason why ROW porting may not be very significant than what it is now…

USCIS Inventory shows about 49k ROW- i485 (EB2&EB3) pending between June 2005 and July 2007 as of 10-01-2010.

Let’s look at the PERM and EB2 approval data for ROW since 2005 not including M&P…

2005:
ROW PERM Certified – 3,536
EB2 –i485 approval – 16,501

2006:
ROW PERM Certified – 41,858
EB2 –i485 approval – 14,420

2007:
ROW PERM Certified – 41,430
EB2 –i485 approval – 28,892

2008:
ROW PERM Certified – 23,890
EB2 –i485 approval – 44,934

2009:
ROW PERM Certified – 13,597
EB2 –i485 approval – 30,123

2010:
ROW PERM Certified – 30,644
EB2 –i485 approval – 24,427

Since i485 approvals in 2005 exceed the total projected demand, even if we assume all ROW PERMs as EB2 only result in 8K i485 (3,536*2.2=7,780) only, let's assume it as backlog reduction and take year 2005 out as an exception for our calculations.

Now let’s see all ROW PERM approvals between 2006 -2010 = 41.8k+41.4k+23.8k+13.5k+30.6k =151.4k

Let’s assume all certified PERMs will make it to i140 and apply15% denial rate at i140 stage which gives us about 129k ROW i140 (EB2&EB3) approvals.

Let’s apply our factor 2.2 for all approved i140 gives us 284k i485 applications, we need to factor EB2-NIW to this number to derive the actual i485 for ROW (EB2&EB3), let’s assume it as 3k per year which gives us about 300k i485 applications for ROW (EB2&EB3) between 2006-10.

Now let’s see all ROW EB2 i485 approvals between 2006-2010 =14.4k+28.8k+44.9k+30.1k+24.4k ~=143k
Now let’s see all ROW EB3 i485 approvals between 2006-2010 =44.9k+37.1k+29.8k+26.3k+24.3k ~=163k

Note: We know that NVC got about 120k EB3 cases but most of them are 245(i) cases.

So if we add all of them (49k+143k+163k) we are looking at 355k i485 for ROW-EB2/3 (not including M&P) between 2006-10. Since backlog centers are closed long time back, I don’t think any EB3 ROW with priority date before May 2005 is still waiting to apply for i485.

Conclusion: I don’t believe there will be many EB3 ROW cases (or the dark demand) at the LO level to add to EB3 ROW inventory, except CP case or PWMB cases.

[qesehmk]

great post! thanks veni.

p.s. I am working on different scenarios. should post tonight.

Spec, and All,
Thanks for clarifying me on this; in any event, we have been counting ROW porting as part of new EB2ROW demand. Here is my reason why ROW porting may not be very significant than what it is now…

USCIS Inventory shows about 49k ROW- i485 (EB2&EB3) pending between June 2005 and July 2007 as of 10-01-2010.

Let’s look at the PERM and EB2 approval data for ROW since 2005 not including M&P…

2005:
ROW PERM Certified – 3,536
EB2 –i485 approval – 16,501

2006:
ROW PERM Certified – 41,858
EB2 –i485 approval – 14,420

2007:
ROW PERM Certified – 41,430
EB2 –i485 approval – 28,892

2008:
ROW PERM Certified – 23,890
EB2 –i485 approval – 44,934

2009:
ROW PERM Certified – 13,597
EB2 –i485 approval – 30,123

2010:
ROW PERM Certified – 30,644
EB2 –i485 approval – 24,427

Since i485 approvals in 2005 exceed the total projected demand, even if we assume all ROW PERMs as EB2 only result in 8K i485 (3,536*2.2=7,780) only, let's assume it as backlog reduction and take year 2005 out as an exception for our calculations.

Now let’s see all ROW PERM approvals between 2006 -2010 = 41.8k+41.4k+23.8k+13.5k+30.6k =151.4k

Let’s assume all certified PERMs will make it to i140 and apply15% denial rate at i140 stage which gives us about 129k ROW i140 (EB2&EB3) approvals.

Let’s apply our factor 2.2 for all approved i140 gives us 284k i485 applications, we need to factor EB2-NIW to this number to derive the actual i485 for ROW (EB2&EB3), let’s assume it as 3k per year which gives us about 300k i485 applications for ROW (EB2&EB3) between 2006-10.

Now let’s see all ROW EB2 i485 approvals between 2006-2010 =14.4k+28.8k+44.9k+30.1k+24.4k ~=143k
Now let’s see all ROW EB3 i485 approvals between 2006-2010 =44.9k+37.1k+29.8k+26.3k+24.3k ~=163k

Note: We know that NVC got about 120k EB3 cases but most of them are 245(i) cases.

So if we add all of them (49k+143k+163k) we are looking at 355k i485 for ROW-EB2/3 (not including M&P) between 2006-10. Since backlog centers are closed long time back, I don’t think any EB3 ROW with priority date before May 2005 is still waiting to apply for i485.

Conclusion: I don’t believe there will be many EB3 ROW cases (or the dark demand) at the LO level to add to EB3 ROW inventory, except CP case or PWMB cases.

[Spectator]

So if we add all of them (49k+143k+163k) we are looking at 355k i485 for ROW-EB2/3 (not including M&P) between 2006-10. Since backlog centers are closed long time back, I don’t think any EB3 ROW with priority date before May 2005 is still waiting to apply for i485.

Conclusion: I don’t believe there will be many EB3 ROW cases (or the dark demand) at the LO level to add to EB3 ROW inventory, except CP case or PWMB cases.

Veni,

Other than possibly a few more 245i cases, I totally agree that there are very few cases before 2005 still to appear. They should have been added into the January Inventory already.

The problem is with "dark demand" post August 2005.

If you look at the January 2011 EB3-ROW Inventory, it has increased by 7,198 over the October 2010 Inventory.

When further analyzed, there are actually 8,362 pure additions. Then you have to account for reductions that would be expected due to Approvals in Q1 2011 (I think it is nearer 4k than the 6.5k than could have been made). In fact the Inventory only shows a reduction of around 500 in the period that was Current, so there must also have been a further 3,500 additions.

The real additions to the EB3-ROW Inventory as a result of LO cases is therefore 8,362 + 3500 = 11,862.

The adjusted October Inventory thus becomes 40,429 + 11,862 = 52,291. That is an increase of 29%.

However, further analysis shows that nearly half of the 8,362 additions took place in the period May to August 2005, just ahead of the current Cut Off Date for EB3-ROW.

That leads to the conclusion that the LO are not yet interviewing many people with PD later than August 2005.

They will only do so as the Cut Off Date for EB3-ROW advances. That still leaves cases with PD in 2006 and 2007 to become visible.

It is almost certain that there are substantial numbers of further LO cases to appear as the interviews are conducted. Actually, potentially frightening numbers.

A back calculation from the number of cases that were probably pending just after July 2007 (July 2007 contributed 320,000 I-485 cases alone - USCIS figure) and subsequent approvals also shows that there is a very large gap compared to the present USCIS Inventory.

Something to ponder on.

I wish to reserve judgement on the subject until we have seen some more Inventories - probably a year's worth. I do not intend to comment on it further, because it is not relevant to this year's calculation.

[veni001]

Veni,

Other than possibly a few more 245i cases, I totally agree that there are very few cases before 2005 still to appear. They should have been added into the January Inventory already.

The problem is with "dark demand" post August 2005.
...........
..........
..........

Something to ponder on.

I wish to reserve judgement on the subject until we have seen some more Inventories - probably a year's worth. I do not intend to comment on it further, because it is not relevant to this year's calculation.

Thanks Spec,
I totally agree with you, we may have to wait until Q4 and see how EB3 ROW inventory changes.

I assume all these EB3 cases need a Labor approval, that's the reason my analysis is based on Labor approvals.

I am not sure the chances of NVC inventory to start showing up(as the cases are being slowly transferred) as part of USCIS inventory.

Let's move on...

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec,
I totally agree with you, we may have to wait until Q4 and see how EB3 ROW inventory changes.

I assume all these EB3 cases need a Labor approval, that's the reason my analysis is based on Labor approvals.

I am not sure the chances of NVC inventory to start showing up(as the cases are being slowly transferred) as part of USCIS inventory.

Let's move on...

I don't think NVC cases are applicable to LO or the USCIS Inventory. LO are part of USCIS and only deal with AOS cases.

NVC cases go to a Foreign Consulate for interview under CP.

Agreed ...... It's bloody complicated, isn't it.

[qesehmk]

Friends, I must acknolwedge & apologize for a huge mistake I made when I posted my last model. The mistake was to assume wrong EB2 ROW demand and Same Year Approvals in 2011. Because of this I forecasted the most pessimistic scenario.

Now I have corrrected both those mistakes and the picture is not that bad anymore. Please check out the updated header.

With this update we are tossing two new factors which we think will be quite crucial going ahead.
a) Rate of 485 filings for EB2-ROW compared to previous year.
b) Same Year Approval of 485 filed in 2010-11.

These two factors will determine the SOFAD. As of now it seems like the SOFAD will be 23.5K (20K towards backlog) and will move dates to Nov 2006. For details pls read the header.

Once again apologize for the huge upset I pulled last week because of this oversight. Good luck!

[TeluguBidda]

Friends, I must acknolwedge & apologize for a huge mistake I made when I posted my last model. The mistake was to assume wrong EB2 ROW demand and Same Year Approvals in 2011. Because of this I forecasted the most pessimistic scenario.

Now I have corrrected both those mistakes and the picture is not that bad anymore. Please check out the updated header.

With this update we are tossing two new factors which we think will be quite crucial going ahead.
a) Rate of 485 filings for EB2-ROW compared to previous year.
b) Same Year Approval of 485 filed in 2010-11.

These two factors will determine the SOFAD. As of now it seems like the SOFAD will be 23.5K (20K towards backlog) and will move dates to Nov 2006. For details pls read the header.

Once again apologize for the huge upset I pulled last week because of this oversight. Good luck!

Thanks much. It gives me a light of hope personally, as my priority date is 11/29/2006. I am just hoping that it at least touches December 1st 2006. I am hope my wish is not too unrealistic.

[pch053]

Thanks qesehmk; I think we all will feel better with the new prediction. If I remember the numbers correctly, 'sangiano' in trackitt did some calculations/predictions where it required around 27K - 28K SOFAD for EB2-I & EB2-C PDs to move to end of Dec'06. I think your calculation results are on similar lines, meaning ~23K SOFAD will put the PD around Nov'06 by the end of FY'11.

[qesehmk]

Thanks qesehmk; I think we all will feel better with the new prediction. If I remember the numbers correctly, 'sangiano' in trackitt did some calculations/predictions where it required around 27K - 28K SOFAD for EB2-I & EB2-C PDs to move to end of Dec'06. I think your calculation results are on similar lines, meaning ~23K SOFAD will put the PD around Nov'06 by the end of FY'11.

PCH, i too have a vested interest in this. However, I tend to be overcautious by nature. But even more so after last years' unforeseen PERM surge. Without that surge, all or most of EB2 backlog would be cleared. That PERM surge was what Don Rumsfeld used to call "unknown unknowns"!! I think we should continue to watch for such unknown unknowns.

Having said that, this year there could be a favorable unknown unknown in EB1. The trackitt EB1 data is too good to be true. 65 approvals total YTD compared to 224 in 2010. However, there are still not sufficient signs to say that the data is decisively predicting a trend. I will write a separate post on this situation.

Thanks much. It gives me a light of hope personally, as my priority date is 11/29/2006. I am just hoping that it at least touches December 1st 2006. I am hope my wish is not too unrealistic.

Bidda, for you its really close. I think there is a very decent change u may get it.

[angryclubs]

Man my PD is March 2007. This wait is killing me

[arorasa]

Friends, I must acknolwedge & apologize for a huge mistake I made when I posted my last model. The mistake was to assume wrong EB2 ROW demand and Same Year Approvals in 2011. Because of this I forecasted the most pessimistic scenario.

Now I have corrrected both those mistakes and the picture is not that bad anymore. Please check out the updated header.

With this update we are tossing two new factors which we think will be quite crucial going ahead.
a) Rate of 485 filings for EB2-ROW compared to previous year.
b) Same Year Approval of 485 filed in 2010-11.

These two factors will determine the SOFAD. As of now it seems like the SOFAD will be 23.5K (20K towards backlog) and will move dates to Nov 2006. For details pls read the header.

Once again apologize for the huge upset I pulled last week because of this oversight. Good luck!

Thanks for that update Q! You've just turned on the light at the end of the tunnel.

[veni001]

...................

Having said that, this year there could be a favorable unknown unknown in EB1. The trackitt EB1 data is too good to be true. 65 approvals total YTD compared to 224 in 2010. However, there are still not sufficient signs to say that the data is decisively predicting a trend. I will write a separate post on this situation.

.....................

Q,
That's right, let's hope EB1 demand goes back to 2006 or 2007 level!
Veni

[ChampU]

Thanks a lot, Q!! So EB2-I can get around 12-14k visas..5-7k less than last year..Thats still good news..

[qesehmk]

Thanks a lot, Q!! So EB2-I can get around 12-14k visas..5-7k less than last year..Thats still good news..

Roughly the split of 20 between India China should be 15-5.

[veni001]

Roughly the split of 20 between India China should be 15-5.

Q,
As we know that Sept 2008 PD was at Aug 2006 so PWMB should be very less or even zero until 01AUG06,except porting cases, and 20k should take us into Jan 2007?

[qesehmk]

Veni,

I think PWMB wouldn't seriously kick in until Feb-March 2007. My numbers don't include PWMB. Nov-Dec 06 is conceivable w 20K. Jan 07 would be slight stretch.

But then 20K itself is a guess. So I guess yes .. may be.

Q,
As we know that Sept 2008 PD was at Aug 2006 so PWMB should be very less or even zero until 01AUG06,except porting cases, and 20k should take us into Jan 2007?

[veni001]

Veni,

I think PWMB wouldn't seriously kick in until Feb-March 2007. My numbers don't include PWMB. Nov-Dec 06 is conceivable w 20K. Jan 07 would be slight stretch.

But then 20K itself is a guess. So I guess yes .. may be.

Q,
Assuming China's regular 2.8 k will clear them up to Aug 2006 then thy got only 3k pending before 1JAN2007. If our estimate is 20k then it will be 17+3(I+C). Let's hope EB1 demand will go back to at least 2007 level

[doodle]

Experts,

I have a PD 11/14/2006 EB2 India.

Currently I am on H1 so that my wife has H4 until my PD becomes current..
My wife is not included in the 485 appl.

How realistic is that my PD becomes Current in July/Aug/Sep 2011 ?

Appreciate your replies

[veni001]

Experts,

I have a PD 11/14/2006 EB2 India.

Currently I am on H1 so that my wife has H4 until my PD becomes current..
My wife is not included in the 485 appl.

How realistic is that my PD becomes Current in July/Aug/Sep 2011 ?

Appreciate your replies

Doodle,
I think you have 90-10 chance by Sept 2011.

[qesehmk]

Friends ...

If you can afford the time, read this.

http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastor...4/07-56774.pdf

This is very illuminating and can have significant change in EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals.

[veni001]

Friends ...

If you can afford the time, read this.

http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastor...4/07-56774.pdf

This is very illuminating and can have significant change in EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals.

Very interesting, I was wondering about the case behind Kazarian Guidance memo(08/18/2010).

[qesehmk]

Guys ... here is another way to look at our predictions and its confirmation. This is quite crude .... but just like we did last year... its always good to try to see if from multiple angles our theories fit together.

12 month rolling 140s 73000
Less IC Labors 39,822
Less EB3 ROW 29,822
Less 5% Denials 28,331
485 Filings 62,328
Less 5% Denials 59,212
EB1 + EB2 ROW MP quota 74,000
IC Quota 6,000
SOFAD 20,788

Which is exactly what our model says. Since labors also include conversions .... dont need to take out them from this number.

Very interesting, I was wondering about the case behind Kazarian Guidance memo(08/18/2010).

veni.... that's an interesting topic. I am still trying to understand and verify. But in nutshell ... I think this should at least slow down new EB1 EB2 applications approvals. It could further increase denial rate which is a good thing for backlogged countries. However today we don't see EB1 backlog buildup or EB1 denials. Trackitt data is not good on that front.

[veni001]

Guys ...
.......
......
EB1 + EB2 ROW MP quota 74,000
IC Quota 6,000
SOFAD 20,788

Which is exactly what our model says. Since labors also include conversions .... don't need to take out them from this number.



veni.... that's an interesting topic. I am still trying to understand and verify. But in nutshell ... I think this should at least slow down new EB1 EB2 applications approvals. It could further increase denial rate which is a good thing for backlogged countries. However today we don't see EB1 backlog buildup or EB1 denials. Trackitt data is not good on that front.

Agree

Q,
You mean the estimated demand, am i correct?

[qesehmk]

Veni

Est demand using that approach would be 59K for EB1+EB2ROW. 74K is the quota for those two combined. So FA+FD = 15K. Then you add EB2IC quota of 5.5K .... thats your total SOFAD = 20.5K !

Makes sense?

Q,
You mean the estimated demand, am i correct?

[happyboy]

According to the info i got from my friends who are working in Big indian outsource companies it is hard in these days to convense the management to apply for EB1.
Some one can shed some light on this if you guys have any contacts