As far as BTM goes, they can do that anytime, can't they? The 27% limitation rule applies only to that particularly fiscal years visa usage, but even in Oct or Nov, they can do a BTM to take in the applications and actually assign visa to some of them only in Q4 FY 2012?
Any forward movement has to occur ONLY WHEN more visas are available than are demanded by USCIS.
In October even if they consider full year quota for EB2I, that is woefully short to the demand which is basically 8K or so.
An October BTM was a possibility when September showed decent forward movement. Now they have effectively killed prospects of BTM until end of FY 2012 Q1 or Q2. i.e. Dec or March.
Originally Posted by vishnu
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks Q - makes sense.
Friends, what does BTM mean?
Till y'day BTM meant = Big Temporary Movement
Now it means "Blocked Tangled Movement"
Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.
The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.
It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).
I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.
------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD
Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000
January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175
Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.
It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.
PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-10-2011 at 08:42 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
You are right! I feel the second abbreviation looks more appropriate to me.
It was really a disappointing bulletin for me, my H1b ext at risk and with PD may2007
Gurus what option I have now.?
Looks like I have to file H1 now..can't wait for EAD anymore
Any suggetions please ?
I am also in the same boat.Infact i was so confident that the dates would move, I did not think about the h1b ext.
It is same what I have assumed , my PD is 2nd Jan 2008 and think still there will be 25k people ahead of me so it will be 25k SOFAD including regular quota needed to clear all cases before me. Only one thing can save me is is DOS go little bit extra to create a buffer in case if not all PERM approval translate into I 485.. I may barely get a chance for 2012. For 2013 may be I will get it.
But data points different that what if holds true NVC is doing. NVC is sending out email for fee as late as Sep 2008 ( as per some one recent post ) If that is true then we are looking EB2 will be C next fall. YES I am not kidding it will be Current.
Dude... please stop giving false hopes... no one knows what will happen...
Spillover consumption starts from April 15th 2007 onwards right for the next FY (2012), since the last cutoff for 2011 is april 15th 2007?
We might as well name it "Big Time Mess".
I was seriously hoping to file for EAD/AP (PD SEP 2007) so that I dont have to continue on lousy H1 extensions. I was in a very bad mood/depression yesterday until I went home and hugged my kids. At that time I realized that there's more to life than just chasing after these VB bulletins month after month. I need to concentrate on and cherish what I have right now.So now onto filing for H1 extension.
Nishant's and my case are so much similar. Even I wanted to get this GC stuff over with so that I am no longer bound to H1, can take up projects which really interest me, visit India and peacefully come back whenever I want, sponsor my parents to come to the US and stay with me so that they dont have to stay alone back in India.
At least I find solace in the fact that my PD may be current in the next 6 months or so and GC processing may be faster beacuse of the backlog clearance. I truly feel for ppl who have PDs in 2008 and later. It seems without any congressional action this problem is never going to end.
neospeed,
In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.
In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.
The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards. The Jan-Mar figures are purely theoretical and of no practical use.
I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.
No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.
I hope that explains it.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-10-2011 at 08:59 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Wont the 8k number go down after the approvals in September 2011?
Spec,
This is little bit misleading because, however you look there will not be 12K EB2CI cases pending(including porting) before 15APR2007.
Similar to FY2011 there will be 1k-2k EB2CI cases pending before 15APR2007 by 10-1-2011.
At least for newbies, it would be easy to understand if you start with April 2007
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
I think the 8,000 number will come down after they complete processing in Sep 2011, wouldn't it?
I don't think so, unless they move EB2CI dates in October.
Look at the June EB-485 inventory update for EB2CI cases pending for 15APR2007 to AUG2007.
Last edited by veni001; 08-10-2011 at 09:21 AM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
It seems quite straight forward to me, its just they waited for the last. In the last 2 months, they checked how much documentary qualified EB1 and EB2 ROW (by this time EB1 with RFE must have responded) they can reduce before closing the year. If none were there, they would have given to EB2IC. Yes, this must have been their strategy, that before closing the year, have one last look at EB1 and EB2ROW and approve what you can.
Nishant I just read another interesting explanation for EB3 movement on IV from user named Caliber.
Originally Posted by Caliber
This may not be spill over. Two of my friends with PD April 2002 got their GC's about 6 years back, but they were not married at the time of their 485 filing and their wife's came on H1 and applied 485 on their own during June/July fiasco. Now these guys became Citizens and sponsored their wife's on immediate family visa. One more friend will be citizen in next six months and his wife will not need her EB based 485 any more.
If I know 3 guys, there could be few others who are becoming citizens and their spouses no more required to be in EB queue.
Due to this, 2002/2003 first qrtr should at least move faster as those who got GC's in June/July 2007 will become Citizens in 2012 and their spouses who applied 485's during that time will no more be in EB queue.
My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:
1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K
Gives us -
Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K
-------
This years SOFAD = ~ 28K
Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.
In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.
Rough logic ... but tear it apart!
Last edited by qesehmk; 08-10-2011 at 09:31 AM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Spec,
may be the 8000 needed to be split in to 4 parts and assign to Apr/May, May/June, June/July. July/Aug. how about the following, also 1000 of porting to each month just to spread it
Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000
January 2007 --------------- 62
February 2007 -------------- 157
March 2007 ----------------- 281
April 2007 ----------------- 1,041
May 2007 ------------------- 3,625
June 2007 ------------------ 7,051
July 2007 ------------------ 10,054
August 2007 ---------------- 13,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175
Last edited by bieber; 08-10-2011 at 09:43 AM.
Thanks Q!
But I have a basic question, since the USCIS/DOS will be bound by quarterly limits starting financial year 1OCT2011, how is it going to be possible for them to move PD dates until Jan 2008? It would have made sense to do it in the SEP VB bulletin, staring Oct I think their hands are tied by the law. Any comments/suggestions?
Agree completely. And I do not have an answer to that. I have only laid out the thought process. If you think about it .... "Jan-08" is immaterial. Whatever that month is ..... call is "X",
If SOFAD is less than 28K then: X < Jan 2008
if SOFAD is more than 28K then : X > Jan 2008
But DoS must move dates to X by Mar 2012. That's the argument.
Last edited by qesehmk; 08-10-2011 at 09:56 AM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
not bad we still have 73 people sucking info...
Q, on other note...its been 10 days and you havent given us any good news abt ur GC... whats up??
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