EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

My entire portfolio is down 10% today! 50% tied to Chinese stocks. They are getting a beating 3-5 times DJI.

Q

give some good news from your source, almost puked when i just saw the afternoon market update. 15% down in 1 week

[leo07]

Thanks Spec.
I understand that they represent net change, +X and -X cancel out and may not show up in the entire result.

On a higher level, say EB3I in a given year must get 3k visas and if the inventory & demand data, compared to the demand data go down by more than 3k, that is porting?

leo,

Both the Demand Data and USCIS Inventories provide net changes between them.

That is, there are additions and subtractions. If you don't know one of these, you can't calculate the other.

e.g. a net reduction of 100 might be zero additions and 100 reductions, or it can equally be 50 additions and 150 reductions. Without knowing the additions, it is impossible to know the reduction.

If you assume no additions, you will underestimate the reductions.

[kkurasa]

I guess I had the same question as Mesan as to what effect this stock market is going to affect immigration in the long term ? Most people speculate that we might be headed into a double dip recession and what are the Feds going to do about it ? Short term might not have any affect for the next couple of months, but if things aren't going to improve by April / May of 2012, what are the long term effects ?

Sorry for going off topic from the calculations, but felt i just had to chime in here.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends now we have more approvals coming up on Trackitt. This based on the Approval date in Aug.

EB2 - India - 16
EB2 - China - 2
EB2 and NIW - ROW - 6
EB1 - 5
EB3 - 15

The percentage share of EB2 - I +C is below 50% now, EB3 India cases are being posted in large numbers. EB2 ROW and EB1 seem to e normal bounds, the volume of EB2 I/C needs to be higher considering the fact that even Jul cases are being approved now.

[soggadu]

Actually, I have a different take here. There will be a direct impact of market-direction ON immigration on a long-term basis ( 1-2 years). Sudden fluctuations will NOT have impact on immigration. Any sustained/continued fluctuation will also NOT have impact on immediate (3-6 months) Visa bulletins.

So explain me what we gained/lost from 2008-2011 w.r.t immigration in conjunction with market... Please dont tell me about spilover as the spilover starting from 2007 was being applied to EB2 as an adminstrative fix... anything else?

[belmontboy]

my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

yes, either of those will cause gas!

[soggadu]

Beans or potatos you have something to eat....

I am not mixing anything shoban babu, just wanted to understand, as i saw few posts where gurus mentioned that 2008 & 2009( less EB1) bcoz of recession.

Actually i dont mind if it doesnt change....but i will feel bad if the dates retrogress bcoz of this changes in USA...

already atleast i have long wait....i dont want other changes bring evenmore wait for us (people with priority date 2010 nd 2011)

wohi toh...everybdy say's about less EB1 in 2008 and 2009 but not much spilover available if u see the real numbers... those numbers (EB1) decreased recently due to stringent rules rather than market down trend...and i am not a real supporter of market vs immigration numbers theory....

[qesehmk]

I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.

The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.

I guess I had the same question as Mesan as to what effect this stock market is going to affect immigration in the long term ? Most people speculate that we might be headed into a double dip recession and what are the Feds going to do about it ? Short term might not have any affect for the next couple of months, but if things aren't going to improve by April / May of 2012, what are the long term effects ?

Sorry for going off topic from the calculations, but felt i just had to chime in here.

[harick]

I did a comparison between June Demand data and September demand data for EB3I for calculating porting numbers. it came to roughly 230 cases per month. Here are my calculations


As per June demand data

On Jan 01, 2003 EB3I has a demand of 6.900
by Jan 01, 2011 EB3I has a demand of 57,400

Demand added betwenn Jan 2003 and Jan 2011 by June is 50,500

As per September demand data

On Jan 01, 2003 EB3I has a demand of 5,675
on Jan 01, 2011 EB3I has a demand of 55,250

demand added between Jan 2003 and Jan 2011 by Sepetember is 49,725.

From June to September the demand for EB3I has reduced from 50,500 to 49,725 which is a reduction of 925 for four months (or 232 per month). Most likely all these might have ported to EB2, if we think there are no denials.

I took Jan 01. 2003 as starting date because CUD did not cross this date so there is no chance of getting approvals under EB3I category for anybody applied after Jan01, 2003.

Gurus, Does it make sense?

How big is Porting actually?

There is big talk in internet forums about Porting being happening left and right but I believe it’s not as big as we all think.

There are total of 5 scenarios possible in Porting:

i) Porting within the same company - We all know that this involves lot of risk as the new job responsibility (2nd PERM) has to be 50% different to that of the original PERM. Having said that still the case may go into an Audit queue and could get stuck there for months and even years. It also needs a lot of convincing because it costs lot of money.

ii) Moving from Desi consultant to Full Time - This is by far the best option why people go for Porting. Even in this route the person may have to wait 6 months/ 1 year before the employer can start the process. Add to that 8 months for Labor and 140 and another 6 months for USCIS to eventually get to the case and close it based on earlier priority date. We are talking 2 years easily.

iii) Moving from Full Time to Desi Consultant- People generally don't go for this because typically full time employees enjoy lots of benefits and would have bought houses and kind of settled. They don't want to get into an unpredictable world of Consulting with market being as bad as it is. Moreover Desi consultants will not get any benefit out of this person if he stays for less than a year. Hence they would not be in any hurry to start the GC processing.

iv) Moving from one Desi to another Desi - I don't see any advantage because of reasons seen above.

v) Moving from Full Time to another Full Time - This is worth a gamble but still no one would risk their current employment in the present market.

Finally there is this biggest fear in everyone's mind that what if something goes wrong in the middle. Let’s play it safe….

I feel this whole Porting stuff has been simply blown out of proportion.
Comments are welcome!!!

[soggadu]

I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.

The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.

Q, i am not sure on that...if it is about bad economy, then what happened in 2008 and 2009 when the economy is worse than 2010... i guess we have seen steady flow is EB1's and only less than 3 or 4K spilover from EB1 each season... last year SOFAD is due to family visas which is irrespective of economy... please correct me if i am wrong...

[soggadu]

I guess I had the same question as Mesan as to what effect this stock market is going to affect immigration in the long term ? Most people speculate that we might be headed into a double dip recession and what are the Feds going to do about it ? Short term might not have any affect for the next couple of months, but if things aren't going to improve by April / May of 2012, what are the long term effects ?

Sorry for going off topic from the calculations, but felt i just had to chime in here.

If at all there would be a double dip...the immigration scenario would be same as what happened between 2008 and 2010...i.e. nothing big happens...

[kkurasa]

Thanks Q, I must have missed that discussion since I do try to read every night from the last bookmark, but sometimes notice that some of the discussions may have been moved. Well hopefully this does lead to more SOFAD for next year with less people applying in EB1 but lets see what the next 3 -4 months look like.

I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.

The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.

[kkurasa]

Thanks Q, I must have missed that discussion since I do try to read every night from the last bookmark, but sometimes notice that some of the discussions may have been moved. Well hopefully this does lead to more SOFAD for next year with less people applying in EB1 but lets see what the next 3 -4 months look like.

I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.

The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Agree with you soggadubhai.

I don't know much about economy but after the Kazarian Memo, EB1 approval has gone down or at least delayed.

One of my senior who is just a general internist had his EB1B approved within 27 days. His application was pretty weak to qualify for EB1B with only 1 or 2 publications but he and his attorney presented his case extremely well to USCIS backed up with some very strong recommendations letters from reputed institutions like Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, Johns Hopkins etc. This happened before Kazarian Memo came out.

Recently, one of my other senior who did his Pediatric Cardiology from University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, had 6-8 publications as first author and also had very strong recommendation letters, was rejected by USCIS saying that the evidence was not enough for the agency to qualify him to obtain GC under EB1B. It took 4 months to take this decision. He already has his GC filed under EB2NIW and has an approved I140.

The point is there are lot of people I know from my profession who had dubious credentials to qualify under EB1A or EB1B, and still had approvals. Post-Kazarian Memo, I am pretty sure they all would be either denied or at least delayed.

[mesan123]

wohi me bhi boltihum...i saw few posts where they mentioned it has effect , but i couldnot decode how...may be i m bad in grasping stuff, so i asked the question again... mynumber calculation expertise is less( i am still in process of understanding the great people(fab 4) calculations , i am sure i will understand them 100% by the time i become current )

Anyway Q cleared my questions that it will be few more SOAFD if the recession happens....

by the way how was the potato curry

wohi toh...everybdy say's about less EB1 in 2008 and 2009 but not much spilover available if u see the real numbers... those numbers (EB1) decreased recently due to stringent rules rather than market down trend...and i am not a real supporter of market vs immigration numbers theory....

[qesehmk]

Last 2 years were spent completely cleaning up EB2ROW and EB1 backlogs. And by backlog I mean not just 485, but all teh way back to labor.

That's is like doing a complete transmission flush on EB1 and EB2ROW pipeline. Without that EB2I would already be past Aug2007. Last year, when the 485 and 140 pipelines were already exhausted, there was PERM surge which hindered EB2IC chances.

Going forward Kazarian memo certainly has again done some buildup. But hopefully the demand itself will slow down and we will continue to see healthy SOFAD.

Q, i am not sure on that...if it is about bad economy, then what happened in 2008 and 2009 when the economy is worse than 2010... i guess we have seen steady flow is EB1's and only less than 3 or 4K spilover from EB1 each season... last year SOFAD is due to family visas which is irrespective of economy... please correct me if i am wrong...

[qesehmk]

Right now generally people agree that there will be 16-18K SOFAD next year which would mean EB2IC backlog through Q1 2008 will be cleared by Sep 2012.

Thanks Q, I must have missed that discussion since I do try to read every night from the last bookmark, but sometimes notice that some of the discussions may have been moved. Well hopefully this does lead to more SOFAD for next year with less people applying in EB1 but lets see what the next 3 -4 months look like.

[leo07]

Soggadu,

Spillover, whether it's happening to EB2 or EB3 or some other category is a direct result. Lot of strict regulations, including kazarian memo are all direct results of economy. If Economy is so much better as in 98-99-2000, there will not be enough people crying out for regulations.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one. This would be my last post on this topic

So explain me what we gained/lost from 2008-2011 w.r.t immigration in conjunction with market... Please dont tell me about spilover as the spilover starting from 2007 was being applied to EB2 as an adminstrative fix... anything else?

[soggadu]

Last 2 years were spent completely cleaning up EB2ROW and EB1 backlogs. And by backlog I mean not just 485, but all teh way back to labor.

That's is like doing a complete transmission flush on EB1 and EB2ROW pipeline. Without that EB2I would already be past Aug2007. Last year, when the 485 and 140 pipelines were already exhausted, there was PERM surge which hindered EB2IC chances.

Going forward Kazarian memo certainly has again done some buildup. But hopefully the demand itself will slow down and we will continue to see healthy SOFAD.

I understand we need to be hopeful but doesn't want to sound that it is a definite shot... just remembering what i have seen for past 2 yrs... in 2008/2009 i thought i will be able to file for EAD with PD oct 2007 as the economy was like depression...but it didnt happen... and i dont want people to have same hopes to see them go down this time too....
you are saying backlogged labors and 140's for EB1 would go on for more than year and that too in 2008/2009... i am not sure Q bhai... even if that is the case, those unfortunate numbers are really low in comparision...
Anyway i am resting my argument now and let you all deal with numbers... i think i have made my point...

[leo07]

Thanks TeddyK!

So, EB2 is hovering @40%...in your terms, it's down from 80-85% from previous months?
Also, do we know why EB3 picked up major share at this juncture? ( like any possible theories)

Friends now we have more approvals coming up on Trackitt. This based on the Approval date in Aug.

EB2 - India - 16
EB2 - China - 2
EB2 and NIW - ROW - 6
EB1 - 5
EB3 - 15

The percentage share of EB2 - I +C is below 50% now, EB3 India cases are being posted in large numbers. EB2 ROW and EB1 seem to e normal bounds, the volume of EB2 I/C needs to be higher considering the fact that even Jul cases are being approved now.

[jackbrown_890]

If at all there would be a double dip...the immigration scenario would be same as what happened between 2008 and 2010...i.e. nothing big happens...

I think the effect of the recession was felt on EB Category months/years after it ended. That is the reason we got few thousands of extra Spillover visas in 2011. And if there is a double dip (i doubt) next next 2 quarters, we will see more spillover sooner in 2012.

recession = bad economy = fewer jobs = less hiring = less number of immigrants getting jobs = fewer EB ROW applications = more spillover to EB2 I/C

[mesan123]

This shows how much our fab 4 thread is famous...kudos guys ...

'There are currently 204 users browsing this thread. (34 members and 170 guests)'

[aary09]

Bro, there you go....easy & hard

mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

[qesehmk]

soggadu I know exactly why you have dim hopes on the linkage between bad economy and SOFAD. But what I have quoted is real. Indeed USCIS scraped through the entire supply chain of GC applications for EB1 and EB2ROW. So the only way EB1 and EB2ROW can hurt is by increases new receipts. And how is that going to happen in this kind of economic environment?

Stay put!! Good things will happen to you.

I understand we need to be hopeful but doesn't want to sound that it is a definite shot... just remembering what i have seen for past 2 yrs... in 2008/2009 i thought i will be able to file for EAD with PD oct 2007 as the economy was like depression...but it didnt happen... and i dont want people to have same hopes to see them go down this time too....
you are saying backlogged labors and 140's for EB1 would go on for more than year and that too in 2008/2009... i am not sure Q bhai... even if that is the case, those unfortunate numbers are really low in comparision...
Anyway i am resting my argument now and let you all deal with numbers... i think i have made my point...

[skpanda]

As in July 2011, the VB is probably going to come out tomorrow (1 day after release of Demand Data).