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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #5726
    If it gets current...that will be the best for many of us....atleast current for one month and retrogress( i am ok with it )

    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

  2. #5727
    Can someone predict what would be the EB2 India date on September bulletin?

  3. #5728
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Veni,

    I don't think Demand Data is very good for gauging porting, since it is only a net change.

    Trackitt data suggests a figure of at least 3.5-4k based on PDs of EB2 approvals and cases approved as EB3 with PD later than EB3 Cut Off Date. Any Porting within dates that were also Current for EB2-I is difficult to judge and is not included in that figure.

    The estimates between different members were quite wide ranging.

    It is a really hard number to arrive at with any degree of certainty and may provide some "wiggle room" compared to the highest estimates.
    Spec,

    Based on some high porting number estimates and the recent surge in PERM filings/approvals ( June'11 DOL PERM Fact Sheet ) i was expecting significant change in EB3I demand data.

    But i agree it's not as simple as comparing the demand, when comes to porting number calculations.
    Last edited by veni001; 08-14-2011 at 02:05 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  4. #5729
    First post, first page of this very same thread has the information.

    As far porting numbers, I think change-in-demand EB3 numbers,along with change in the EB3 inventory from October through September of a given year, would give a close estimate for porting number.

    At this point, it's anybody's guess as to how much they've consumed this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by sunny4gc View Post
    Can someone predict what would be the EB2 India date on September bulletin?

  5. #5730
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grnwtg View Post
    I am not positive if this demand data calculated porting numbers. In database will they mark EB3 record inactive/delete it if that record gets ported to eb2?
    I am sure in some of the previous bulletin we have found out reduction of eb3 data which we thought that it is because of porting.

    orelse is it just somebody did not choose a condition while pulling data for eb3?.

    Anyways we might get bulletin by Thursday( or tomorrow?).. hopefully there will be BTM..

    grnwtg,

    As spec pointed porting number calculation is little trickey.

    Irrespective of EB3-EB2 porting is reported in EB2 demand data or deleted from EB3 upon approval as EB2, we should see the net change in EB3 demand data (reduction) at some point!
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  6. #5731
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    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    grnwtg,

    As spec pointed porting number calculation is little trickey.

    Irrespective of EB3-EB2 porting is reported in EB2 demand data or deleted from EB3 upon approval as EB2, we should see the net change in EB3 demand data (reduction) at some point!
    Veni. In the past that was probably possible.

    Now, it is pretty impossible, because non current cases from LO are being returned to TSC after the interview takes place. Once TSC adds the details into the system, they will be additions to the totals and mask the true reduction due to porting.
    Last edited by Spectator; 08-08-2011 at 01:02 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  7. #5732
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    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    First post, first page of this very same thread has the information.

    As far porting numbers, I think change-in-demand EB3 numbers,along with change in the EB3 inventory from October through September of a given year, would give a close estimate for porting number.

    At this point, it's anybody's guess as to how much they've consumed this year.
    Leo07,
    Agree, YOY could give us better picture on porting calculations.

    But, we need to keep in mind that the porting dynamics changes as the gap between EB3 and EB2 COD increases....!
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  8. #5733
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Veni. In the past that was probably possible.

    Now, it is pretty impossible, because non current cases from LO are being returned to TSC after the interview takes place. Once TSC adds the details into the system, they will be additions to the totals and mask the true reduction due to porting.
    Spec,

    Agree, with the change in processing they started transferring all non current EB cases from LO to TSC in January 2011.

    Don't you think most of these pending cases from LO should have been transferred to TSC by now?
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  9. #5734
    Will The debt ceiling ,S&P rating and stock markets tumbling today have effect on our SEP & OCT bulletin ???

    Or will we have no effect bcoz of this on our date movements?

  10. #5735
    veni

    Spec is right. Although they are by now, since they were not in Oct 2010, one can't look at demand data from today, compare with Oct 2010 and do the math.
    In simple words demand data today and in OCt 2010 is not on teh same basis.

    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Spec,

    Agree, with the change in processing they started transferring all non current EB cases from LO to TSC in January 2011.

    Don't you think most of these pending cases from LO should have been transferred to TSC by now?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #5736

    PWMB and Demand data

    The demand data should also start representing atleast the starting trickle of PWMB in the lastest report. Not much of an impact yet and this includes the first 7 days of August.

  12. #5737
    Quote Originally Posted by venkat View Post
    How big is Porting actually?

    There is big talk in internet forums about Porting being happening left and right but I believe it’s not as big as we all think.

    There are total of 5 scenarios possible in Porting:

    i) Porting within the same company - We all know that this involves lot of risk as the new job responsibility (2nd PERM) has to be 50% different to that of the original PERM. Having said that still the case may go into an Audit queue and could get stuck there for months and even years. It also needs a lot of convincing because it costs lot of money.

    ii) Moving from Desi consultant to Full Time - This is by far the best option why people go for Porting. Even in this route the person may have to wait 6 months/ 1 year before the employer can start the process. Add to that 8 months for Labor and 140 and another 6 months for USCIS to eventually get to the case and close it based on earlier priority date. We are talking 2 years easily.

    iii) Moving from Full Time to Desi Consultant- People generally don't go for this because typically full time employees enjoy lots of benefits and would have bought houses and kind of settled. They don't want to get into an unpredictable world of Consulting with market being as bad as it is. Moreover Desi consultants will not get any benefit out of this person if he stays for less than a year. Hence they would not be in any hurry to start the GC processing.

    iv) Moving from one Desi to another Desi - I don't see any advantage because of reasons seen above.

    v) Moving from Full Time to another Full Time - This is worth a gamble but still no one would risk their current employment in the present market.

    Finally there is this biggest fear in everyone's mind that what if something goes wrong in the middle. Let’s play it safe….

    I feel this whole Porting stuff has been simply blown out of proportion.
    Comments are welcome!!!
    Due to jobs loss in year 2008 & 2009, lots of people have move to new employer starting GC process all over again and have option of upgrading from EB3 to EB2 category (base on experience gained with old employer). Here were porting will come into account. Does this make sense?
    Last edited by username; 08-08-2011 at 01:16 PM.

  13. #5738
    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    Will The debt ceiling ,S&P rating and stock markets tumbling today have effect on our SEP & OCT bulletin ???

    Or will we have no effect bcoz of this on our date movements?
    mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

    did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

    my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

  14. #5739
    Quote Originally Posted by chikitsak View Post
    The demand data should also start representing atleast the starting trickle of PWMB in the lastest report. Not much of an impact yet and this includes the first 7 days of August.
    rememeber... demand data includes only documentarily qualified cases... pwmb will take atleast 1 or 2 months to be in the list...

  15. #5740
    Atleast u got something to eat , I thght beans were costlier than potatoes....duhh

    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

    did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

    my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

  16. #5741
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    veni

    Spec is right. Although they are by now, since they were not in Oct 2010, one can't look at demand data from today, compare with Oct 2010 and do the math.
    In simple words demand data today and in OCt 2010 is not on teh same basis.
    Q,
    My point is if they are(most of the LO inventory) transferred by now then we could rely on month to month demand data to a get a feel for it?

    Agree, it will be hard to get the clear picture based on YOY comparison due to the recent changes in processing EB applications.
    Last edited by veni001; 08-08-2011 at 01:28 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  17. #5742
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    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Spec,

    Agree, with the change in processing they started transferring all non current EB cases from LO to TSC in January 2011.

    Don't you think most of these pending cases from LO should have been transferred to TSC by now?
    I'll refrain from answering that question, except to say that the LO only have to return the case after the interview has taken place and it has been pre-adjudicated.

    Who knows how many other cases physically located at LO are still awaiting interview and how many are still in storage locations awaiting call up to the LO.

    I think USCIS are being very careful with the words they use when they say "at LO". Since December 2010, when the ALL pre-adjudicated cases were mandated to be sent to TSC, the number of pre-adjudicated cases per month reported by LO has (or is) settled down to a steady number above zero.

    Certainly for EB3-ROW, it is noticeable that additions to their Inventory between the Jan 2011 and June 2011 Inventories come from dates just ahead of the present Cut Off Date.

    Do you think that LO have conducted every interview for every case they have up to a PD of July 2007, when that is years away for EB3 categories?

    Draw your own conclusions.
    Last edited by Spectator; 08-08-2011 at 01:30 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  18. #5743
    Veni

    Yes I would think that LO cases are transferred by now and going forward one can do month over month comparison.

    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Q,
    My point is if they are(most of the LO inventory) transferred by now then we could rely on month to month demand data to a get a feel for it?

    Agree, i will be hard to get the clear pictured based on YOY comparison due to the recent changes in processing EB applications.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  19. #5744
    Actually, I have a different take here. There will be a direct impact of market-direction ON immigration on a long-term basis ( 1-2 years). Sudden fluctuations will NOT have impact on immigration. Any sustained/continued fluctuation will also NOT have impact on immediate (3-6 months) Visa bulletins.



    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

    did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

    my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

  20. #5745
    Spec,

    Not today, but some other day, I'd like to understand why we can't calculate porting numbers from YOY changes in inventory, along with change in demand YOY.
    For today, I'll take your word that it's NOT possible to calculate porting numbers ( I did take many formulas that way, without questioning )

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I'll refrain from answering that question, except to say that the LO only have to return the case after the interview has taken place and it has been pre-adjudicated.

    Who knows how many other cases physically located at LO are still awaiting interview and how many are still in storage locations awaiting call up to the LO.

    I think USCIS are being very careful with the words they use when they say "at LO". Since December 2010, when the ALL pre-adjudicated cases were mandated to be sent to TSC, the number of pre-adjudicated cases per month reported by LO has (or is) settled down to a steady number above zero.

    Certainly for EB3-ROW, it is noticeable that additions to their Inventory between the Jan 2011 and June 2011 Inventories come from dates just ahead of the present Cut Off Date.

    Do you think that LO have conducted every interview for every case they have up to a PD of July 2007, when that is years away for EB3 categories?

    Draw your own conclusions.

  21. #5746
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Veni

    Yes I would think that LO cases are transferred by now and going forward one can do month over month comparison.
    Guys you are correct the YOY approach won’t work out. IMHO neither will demand data because the demand data is also a WIP document and believe me even 2002 folks are porting. The only we we can get to it is the inventory once we see the latest one then do a subtraction of the non current portion and extrapolate to 12 months. The LO cases addition to the inventory made the calculation impossible by the YOY method.

  22. #5747
    Q

    give some good news from your source, almost puked when i just saw the afternoon market update. 15% down in 1 week

  23. #5748
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I'll refrain from answering that question, except to say that the LO only have to return the case after the interview has taken place and it has been pre-adjudicated.

    Who knows how many other cases physically located at LO are still awaiting interview and how many are still in storage locations awaiting call up to the LO.

    I think USCIS are being very careful with the words they use when they say "at LO". Since December 2010, when the ALL pre-adjudicated cases were mandated to be sent to TSC, the number of pre-adjudicated cases per month reported by LO has (or is) settled down to a steady number above zero.

    Certainly for EB3-ROW, it is noticeable that additions to their Inventory between the Jan 2011 and June 2011 Inventories come from dates just ahead of the present Cut Off Date.

    Do you think that LO have conducted every interview for every case they have up to a PD of July 2007, when that is years away for EB3 categories?

    Draw your own conclusions.
    Spec,

    Since 485 could be any AOS, i was checking on i140 completion/pending/approvals at LO from the dashboard to get a feel for EB485 still pending at field office locations.

    Based on the dahboard data, i can only go as far as two years, it looks to me there aren't very many still at LO. My be I am wrong, but i leave it at that!
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  24. #5749
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    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Spec,

    Not today, but some other day, I'd like to understand why we can't calculate porting numbers from YOY changes in inventory, along with change in demand YOY.
    For today, I'll take your word that it's NOT possible to calculate porting numbers ( I did take many formulas that way, without questioning )
    leo,

    Both the Demand Data and USCIS Inventories provide net changes between them.

    That is, there are additions and subtractions. If you don't know one of these, you can't calculate the other.

    e.g. a net reduction of 100 might be zero additions and 100 reductions, or it can equally be 50 additions and 150 reductions. Without knowing the additions, it is impossible to know the reduction.

    If you assume no additions, you will underestimate the reductions.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  25. #5750
    Beans or potatos you have something to eat....

    I am not mixing anything shoban babu, just wanted to understand, as i saw few posts where gurus mentioned that 2008 & 2009( less EB1) bcoz of recession.

    Actually i dont mind if it doesnt change....but i will feel bad if the dates retrogress bcoz of this changes in USA...

    already atleast i have long wait....i dont want other changes bring evenmore wait for us (people with priority date 2010 nd 2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

    did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

    my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

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