Can someone predict what would be the EB2 India date on September bulletin?
Spec,
Based on some high porting number estimates and the recent surge in PERM filings/approvals ( June'11 DOL PERM Fact Sheet ) i was expecting significant change in EB3I demand data.
But i agree it's not as simple as comparing the demand, when comes to porting number calculations.
Last edited by veni001; 08-14-2011 at 02:05 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
First post, first page of this very same thread has the information.
As far porting numbers, I think change-in-demand EB3 numbers,along with change in the EB3 inventory from October through September of a given year, would give a close estimate for porting number.
At this point, it's anybody's guess as to how much they've consumed this year.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Veni. In the past that was probably possible.
Now, it is pretty impossible, because non current cases from LO are being returned to TSC after the interview takes place. Once TSC adds the details into the system, they will be additions to the totals and mask the true reduction due to porting.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-08-2011 at 01:02 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Will The debt ceiling ,S&P rating and stock markets tumbling today have effect on our SEP & OCT bulletin ???
Or will we have no effect bcoz of this on our date movements?
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
The demand data should also start representing atleast the starting trickle of PWMB in the lastest report. Not much of an impact yet and this includes the first 7 days of August.
Due to jobs loss in year 2008 & 2009, lots of people have move to new employer starting GC process all over again and have option of upgrading from EB3 to EB2 category (base on experience gained with old employer). Here were porting will come into account. Does this make sense?
Last edited by username; 08-08-2011 at 01:16 PM.
mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...
did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...
my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....
Q,
My point is if they are(most of the LO inventory) transferred by now then we could rely on month to month demand data to a get a feel for it?
Agree, it will be hard to get the clear picture based on YOY comparison due to the recent changes in processing EB applications.
Last edited by veni001; 08-08-2011 at 01:28 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
I'll refrain from answering that question, except to say that the LO only have to return the case after the interview has taken place and it has been pre-adjudicated.
Who knows how many other cases physically located at LO are still awaiting interview and how many are still in storage locations awaiting call up to the LO.
I think USCIS are being very careful with the words they use when they say "at LO". Since December 2010, when the ALL pre-adjudicated cases were mandated to be sent to TSC, the number of pre-adjudicated cases per month reported by LO has (or is) settled down to a steady number above zero.
Certainly for EB3-ROW, it is noticeable that additions to their Inventory between the Jan 2011 and June 2011 Inventories come from dates just ahead of the present Cut Off Date.
Do you think that LO have conducted every interview for every case they have up to a PD of July 2007, when that is years away for EB3 categories?
Draw your own conclusions.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-08-2011 at 01:30 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Actually, I have a different take here. There will be a direct impact of market-direction ON immigration on a long-term basis ( 1-2 years). Sudden fluctuations will NOT have impact on immigration. Any sustained/continued fluctuation will also NOT have impact on immediate (3-6 months) Visa bulletins.
Spec,
Not today, but some other day, I'd like to understand why we can't calculate porting numbers from YOY changes in inventory, along with change in demand YOY.
For today, I'll take your word that it's NOT possible to calculate porting numbers( I did take many formulas that way, without questioning
)
Guys you are correct the YOY approach won’t work out. IMHO neither will demand data because the demand data is also a WIP document and believe me even 2002 folks are porting. The only we we can get to it is the inventory once we see the latest one then do a subtraction of the non current portion and extrapolate to 12 months. The LO cases addition to the inventory made the calculation impossible by the YOY method.
Q
give some good news from your source, almost puked when i just saw the afternoon market update. 15% down in 1 week
Spec,
Since 485 could be any AOS, i was checking on i140 completion/pending/approvals at LO from the dashboard to get a feel for EB485 still pending at field office locations.
Based on the dahboard data, i can only go as far as two years, it looks to me there aren't very many still at LO. My be I am wrong, but i leave it at that!
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
leo,
Both the Demand Data and USCIS Inventories provide net changes between them.
That is, there are additions and subtractions. If you don't know one of these, you can't calculate the other.
e.g. a net reduction of 100 might be zero additions and 100 reductions, or it can equally be 50 additions and 150 reductions. Without knowing the additions, it is impossible to know the reduction.
If you assume no additions, you will underestimate the reductions.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Beans or potatos you have something to eat....
I am not mixing anything shoban babu, just wanted to understand, as i saw few posts where gurus mentioned that 2008 & 2009( less EB1) bcoz of recession.
Actually i dont mind if it doesnt change....but i will feel bad if the dates retrogress bcoz of this changes in USA...
already atleast i have long wait....i dont want other changes bring evenmore wait for us (people with priority date 2010 nd 2011)
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