EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

In a way this is also a turf battle. Why would a field office offload its work to a federal agency. It would rather keep the work and have its own people employed.

Just a curious thought.

haripathhi,

I think the pertinent part of your quote is:


That leaves all the cases that have NOT had an interview at the Local Offices and therefore invisible.

The January Inventory suggested that Local Offices are only interviwing those people within a few months of the current Cut Off Date. That leaves potentially thousands and tens of thousands of cases that remain invisible. The actual number is unknowable and will only be seen over the course of several years.

It will be interesting to see how many more are added in the 3 month period to the next USCIS Inventory.

[SaturnRing]

First of all Thanks everybody for your wonderful analysis.

When the dates cross Jul 2007, may be in mid 2012 or 2013, do you think they will make Eb2 current for a month before retrogressing the dates again ? 'Cause technically the demand will be less than supply, so shouldn't it be "C" ?

Any thoughts ?

[qesehmk]

Saturn welcome!

This has been discussed in the past. Different permutations combinations are available and DoS can take any route it wishes to.

Current has different connotations: 1) The date is today's date and everybody can file. 2) The date is past my PD and so I can file or get adjusted etc.


If in 2012, 2007 date is becoming current then its obviously scenario 2 we are talking about. If they move date to 2012 then it becomes really CURRENT (as in current marati hai!) !! Under scenario 1, everybody between 2007-12 will be able to file 485 and obvilously the demand will be way higher than supply and they will fall back. Under scenario 2 DoS can move dates just enough to keep new demand and the dates won't retrogress.

Bottomline - if the dates are moved violently then certainly expect the dates to fall back. Otherwise they can slowly progress without retrogression.

First of all Thanks everybody for your wonderful analysis.

When the dates cross Jul 2007, may be in mid 2012 or 2013, do you think they will make Eb2 current for a month before retrogressing the dates again ? 'Cause technically the demand will be less than supply, so shouldn't it be "C" ?

Any thoughts ?

[TeddyKoochu]

Acknowledgement - Ron Gotcher Forum & Attorney Ron Gotcher
http://www.immigration-information.c...240/#post55179

Refer post # 9 to read Ron's comments.

"Getting an EB1 approval is difficult. Overall, only about 10% of EB1a and EB1b petitions are approved. The CIS has set illegal and unrealistically high standards. Given the facts that you have recited, I doubt that you would be in the ballpark for favorable consideration. This is not to denigrate your skills, only a recognition that the CIS applies absurdly high standards. "

Friends your comments and thoughts.

[Spectator]

In a way this is also a turf battle. Why would a field office offload its work to a federal agency. It would rather keep the work and have its own people employed.

Just a curious thought.

Q,

I understand what you are saying.

The Field Offices are also part of the same agency - USCIS, although I agree there is probably competition between them and the Service Centers. They may not necessarily like it, but they are orders from higher up the chain of command.

Retaining pre-adjudicated cases at LO doesn't provide much work. All that is needed is final approval when the PD becomes Current. I accept if that is a long interval, then certain checks may be required before doing so.

I am far more cynical about it. As Ron Gotcher would say "USCIS have a long record of minimizing and disguising the true extent of the backlog (mainly from Congress)". It has suited USCIS in the past to keep cases at Field Offices, so they can minimize the numbers.

The fact that the new Management will no longer put up with this situation and are trying to be more transparent is a ray of hope. I suspect they are also being prodded by DOS on this issue. I don't think there is the manpower to conduct a full Inventory of cases that remain at the LO.

My thoughts anyway.

[Spectator]

Acknowledgement - Ron Gotcher Forum & Attorney Ron Gotcher
http://www.immigration-information.c...240/#post55179

Refer post # 9 to read Ron's comments.

"Getting an EB1 approval is difficult. Overall, only about 10% of EB1a and EB1b petitions are approved. The CIS has set illegal and unrealistically high standards. Given the facts that you have recited, I doubt that you would be in the ballpark for favorable consideration. This is not to denigrate your skills, only a recognition that the CIS applies absurdly high standards. "

Friends your comments and thoughts.

Teddy,

I've seen Ron quote that figure before. In many ways it would make sense, but when you think about the figures that implies, it doesn't.

At 2.1 approvals per I-140, you would need 19k approved I-140 applications for 40k I-485 approvals.

If that represents a 10% approval rate, then 190k I-140s must have been submitted.

There just aren't enough I-140s submitted in a year to cover that, let alone all the EB2 Current applications.

Or am I missing something?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I've seen Ron quote that figure before. In many ways it would make sense, but when you think about the figures that implies, it doesn't.

At 2.1 approvals per I-140, you would need 19k approved I-140 applications for 40k I-485 approvals.

If that represents a 10% approval rate, then 190k I-140s must have been submitted.

There just aren't enough I-140s submitted in a year to cover that, let alone all the EB2 and EB3 applications.

Or am I missing something?

Spec he is talking about EB1 A & B only, if this is his recent experience that only say 10% I140's are being approved in this category it might correlate well with the Trackitt trend. EB1 cases take longer than EB2 or EB3. EB1C is still the larger consumer of EB1.

[Spectator]

Spec he is talking about EB1 A & B only, if this is his recent experience that only say 10% I140's are being approved in this category it might correlate well with the Trackitt trend. EB1 cases take longer than EB2 or EB3.

He's quoted this figure for several years.

EB1A & B still make up 40% of cases. It doesn't get any better if you exclude EB1C. The figures are still unmanageable.

If you think EB1C has declined, then EB1A & B must be higher % of the total, since EB1 still reached 41k last year.

The fact they take longer is really of no consequence, it just implies that more flow through from year to year. The number of I-140s needed would still be the same. If more were needed from the previous year, then more would flow through to the next year.

To be honest, I would have thought that such a high denial rate would also be reflected in Trackitt, at least to some extent - it isn't.

[TeddyKoochu]

He's quoted this figure for several years.

EB1A & B still make up 40% of cases. It doesn't get any better if you exclude EB1C. The figures are still unmanageable.

If you think EB1C has declined, then EB1A & B must be higher % of the total, since EB1 still reached 41k last year.

The fact they take longer is really of no consequence, it just implies that more flow through from year to year. The number of I-140s needed would still be the same. If more were needed from the previous year, then more would flow through to the next year.

Lets do a rough calculation 40K I485's mean 17.7K I140's (2.25).

Now out of these 40% are EB1 A & B this gives ~ 7K I-140's.

I agree if we extrapolate this 10 fold its extremely unrealistic given the number of receipts per the I140 dashboard but say if the rate is 1/2 not 1/10 stated by Ron does that look realistic ? Even 50% is a very high denial rate. If this is a recent phenomenon it will have a huge bearing on this year.

[Spectator]

Lets do a rough calculation 40K I485's mean 17.7K I140's (2.25).

Now out of these 40% are EB1 A & B this gives ~ 7K I-140's.

I agree if we extrapolate this 10 fold its extremely unrealistic given the number of receipts per the I140 dashboard but say if the rate is 1/2 not 1/10 stated by Ron does that look realistic ? Even 50% is a very high denial rate. If this is a recent phenomenon it will have a huge bearing on this year.

Just for interest, the denial rates on Trackitt in FY2010 were :

EB1A - 19.3%
EB1B - 2.7%
EB1C - 2.5%

The fact that EB1A is much higher than the others should be no surprise. It is the only sub-category that can be self-sponsored and I think we have all seen some applications bound to fail.

Maybe we just have to agree to disagree on this one.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I think we r on same page overall but there are some nuances where there may be different thoughts...

....

they are orders from higher up the chain of command.
....
I think it only matters a little bit. The chain of command here is much weaker except in Military.

I am far more cynical about it. As Ron Gotcher would say "USCIS have a long record of minimizing and disguising the true extent of the backlog (mainly from Congress)". It has suited USCIS in the past to keep cases at Field Offices, so they can minimize the numbers.
Agree

The fact that the new Management will no longer put up with this situation and are trying to be more transparent is a ray of hope.
The objective may not necessarily be transparency. Its one thing that is may be useful to people like u and me. But the objective could be strategic immigration. I don't know ...

I suspect they are also being prodded by DOS on this issue.

Absolutely yes.

I don't think there is the manpower to conduct a full Inventory of cases that remain at the LO.
Thats not true. Its a good excuse though.

Teddy, I think Spec has a point there. I have seen Ron making very wild allegations and is sometimes seems to blame USCIS too much for nothing. Your point about EB1A/B is valid however still I think Spec's logic still applies to those two sub categories. I don't think that the usage there is so low that 10% approval rate is possible.

Spec he is talking about EB1 A & B only, if this is his recent experience that only say 10% I140's are being approved in this category it might correlate well with the Trackitt trend. EB1 cases take longer than EB2 or EB3. EB1C is still the larger consumer of EB1.

[TeddyKoochu]

Just for interest, the denial rates on Trackitt in FY2010 were :

EB1A - 19.3%
EB1B - 2.7%
EB1C - 2.5%

The fact that EB1A is much higher than the others should be no surprise. It is the only sub-category that can be self-sponsored and I think we have all seen some applications bound to fail.

Maybe we just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Thanks Spec for your feedback. I do agree with your view about EB1-A. Trackitt however is not good in measuring denials people would tend to not update that case itself.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for your feedback. I do agree with your view about EB1-A. Trackitt however is not good in measuring denials people would tend to not update that case itself.

I'm not disagreeing. If they were denied, most would simply remove their profile or simply not update it. The point of the post was to show that Trackitt does not reflect Ron's figure at all, not that they should be relied on.

As an aside, you should read some of the AAO decisions for EB1A. One that amused me was a denial for someone claiming to have Extraordinary Ability in the art of Paper Silhouette making. It shows how diverse the category can be.

[TeddyKoochu]

I'm not disagreeing. If they were denied, most would simply remove their profile or simply not update it. The point of the post was to show that Trackitt does not reflect Ron's figure at all, not that they should be relied on.

As an aside, you should read some of the AAO decisions for EB1A. One that amused me was a denial for someone claiming to have Extraordinary Ability in the art of Paper Silhouette making. It shows how diverse the category can be.

Spec neither Trackitt’s figure nor what Ron is saying is true the truth probably lies in between. I have seen people filing both an EB2-NIW and EB1-A just to be safe. I agree with some of the EB1-A cases can be really interesting. EB1 is definitely what holds the key to our fortunes lets keep finding all avenues to estimate / guesstimate this.

[pch053]

10% acceptance of EB1A and EB1B seems really low to me. In fact, I would have more thought of the denial rate to be around 10 - 20%. I can tell of 5 cases in EB1A category that I have seen getting approved in the past 3 years. For 2 of those cases, the credentials were very strong (in my opinion) and they got approved very quickly (~few weeks) without any RFEs. The other 3 cases were more of the type of borderline cases. As we all know that EB1A & B has requires lot of qualitative judgment like publications (how to judge how good the publication is), citation of one's work (how many number of places one's work needs to be cited), etc. A couple of the above cases got RFE's and took relatively longer time (almost 1 year) but got approved at the end. I am not sure whether Ron's 10% acceptance of EB1A/B is a recent phenomena or not but from what I have seen, the % will be probably much higher in the previous years.

[bieber]

veni thx for the link

Ron's 10% approval seems exaggerated, hope he is right and we get 25-30k sofad from EB1

[veni001]

haripathhi,

I think the pertinent part of your quote is:


That leaves all the cases that have NOT had an interview at the Local Offices and therefore invisible.

The January Inventory suggested that Local Offices are only interviwing those people within a few months of the current Cut Off Date. That leaves potentially thousands and tens of thousands of cases that remain invisible. The actual number is unknowable and will only be seen over the course of several years.

It will be interesting to see how many more are added in the 3 month period to the next USCIS Inventory.

I don't see basis for this assumption, at least for EB1/EB2, since we have all PERM data available on DOL website from 2000-2010 and also i140 information from USCIS dash board for last couple of years in additionUSCIS pending inventory reports, Am i missing some thing here

[ChampU]

Hi Guys,

Thanks for taking the time to analyze the EB2/EB3 numbers. I have been following this forum for a while and finally decided to join you guys! I have a few questions for the gurus:

1. I had read SOFAD projections for EB2 to be in the 25-35k range. Are those estimates,still accurate? I had read about higher EB1/EB5 approvals and a lot of porting from EB3-EB2 might knock down the SOFAD.
2. If the H.R. 4 is enacted into a law, 55k visas might get infused in the EB category. The effective date is listed as 10/01/2011. Would these visas be distributed amongst the EB categories like other EB visas (28.6% for EB1/2/3)?
3. Any idea how the DV Lottery numbers are alloted? Quarterly/one time during the fiscal year?
4. My PD is 02/2008. I have no hopes of anything happening this year. Can I expect my case to be current in 2012?

Thanks!
ChampU

[veni001]

Hi Guys,

Thanks for taking the time to analyze the EB2/EB3 numbers. I have been following this forum for a while and finally decided to join you guys! I have a few questions for the gurus:

1. I had read SOFAD projections for EB2 to be in the 25-35k range. Are those estimates,still accurate? I had read about higher EB1/EB5 approvals and a lot of porting from EB3-EB2 might knock down the SOFAD.
2. If the H.R. 4 is enacted into a law, 55k visas might get infused in the EB category. The effective date is listed as 10/01/2011. Would these visas be distributed amongst the EB categories like other EB visas (28.6% for EB1/2/3)?
3. Any idea how the DV Lottery numbers are alloted? Quarterly/one time during the fiscal year?
4. My PD is 02/2008. I have no hopes of anything happening this year. Can I expect my case to be current in 2012?

Thanks!
ChampU

ChampU,
Your profile show your PD as 01/01/2001

[ChampU]

I had a tough time reading the "registration image" . Had to do it twice (weekend brain freeze) and since the PD was optional, I kind of gave up on it.

My actual PD is 02/22/2008.

[haripathhi]

I had a tough time reading the "registration image" . Had to do it twice (weekend brain freeze) and since the PD was optional, I kind of gave up on it.

My actual PD is 02/22/2008.

I second that, its tough to read the "registration image" that comes up. Even I had to do it more than a couple of times to get it right....just a thought for the moderator .

Welcome to the forum ChampU!

[veni001]

I had a tough time reading the "registration image" . Had to do it twice (weekend brain freeze) and since the PD was optional, I kind of gave up on it.

My actual PD is 02/22/2008.

OK, unless there is dramatic change in the demand(increase/decrease) or change in the law( both are unknown) you can count on rule of 5 for EB2, i.e you should be able to file by Sept 2013.

[qesehmk]

ChampU pls read teh header as well as 4-5 pages back into the thread to get an idea of latest thoughts on this thread.

Regarding H.R. 4, yes if enacted it seems that it will bump up EB quota by DV lottery quota overall. So obviously EB1/2/3 all get benefited. Not sure how DV visa is allocated. I would imagine must be applied evently and no question of spillover given they know exactly who is selected.

Regarding your date - it has some chance of being current in 2012. But 2013 seems more realistic.

Hi Guys,

Thanks for taking the time to analyze the EB2/EB3 numbers. I have been following this forum for a while and finally decided to join you guys! I have a few questions for the gurus:

1. I had read SOFAD projections for EB2 to be in the 25-35k range. Are those estimates,still accurate? I had read about higher EB1/EB5 approvals and a lot of porting from EB3-EB2 might knock down the SOFAD.
2. If the H.R. 4 is enacted into a law, 55k visas might get infused in the EB category. The effective date is listed as 10/01/2011. Would these visas be distributed amongst the EB categories like other EB visas (28.6% for EB1/2/3)?
3. Any idea how the DV Lottery numbers are alloted? Quarterly/one time during the fiscal year?
4. My PD is 02/2008. I have no hopes of anything happening this year. Can I expect my case to be current in 2012?

Thanks!
ChampU

Regarding the difficulties, unfortunately the functionality is out of the box. So not sure how it can be improved. Would appreciate if anybody has any advice.

I had a tough time reading the "registration image" . Had to do it twice (weekend brain freeze) and since the PD was optional, I kind of gave up on it.

My actual PD is 02/22/2008.

I second that, its tough to read the "registration image" that comes up. Even I had to do it more than a couple of times to get it right....just a thought for the moderator .

Welcome to the forum ChampU!

[veni001]

Q, Spec and Teddy,

I think we are underestimating the mag of EB3 to EB2 porting (6000). My company (which I am not stating due to privacy reasons with about 2000 people) recently had a policy change to allow EB3 to EB2 porting due to retention issues. About 50 people from my company (who are EB3) are now eligible to convert into EB2 and they have initiated the labor cert for those people. I think EB3 to EB2 conversion should be atleast 20000 people. I arrived the figure of 20000 based on companies similar to mine and having an extrapolation factor. I am in ATL and already know 3 consulting companies who are converting people due to retention issues.

Thanks!

FYI - Interesting article about EB3 to EB2 porting with current employer posted in other forums

[Spectator]

I don't see basis for this assumption, at least for EB1/EB2, .........
Am i missing some thing here

Sorry for the delay in replying. I somewhat misread your post.

The comment was made in the context of why there may be more future Porting from EB3 other than India, so it was implicitly talking about EB3 only.

So it is not an issue for EB1 or EB2-Current. So far, EB2-Retrogressed sees little effect from LO cases being added to the Inventory.