Cali baba ..Source baba.. Please arrive from India soon and grace us with your insights...Originally Posted by leo07
like it
Cali baba ..Source baba.. Please arrive from India soon and grace us with your insights...like it
If no BTM, one more year
I still think it will be FY 2012 for BTM as they won't be able to give proper reason of demand vs visas vs danger of waste. It can be accomodated by SFM as we are as of yet far away from Aug 15 2007. if we had got even 5k FB, and were periliously close to July last bulletin, it cud have been the tipping point. So near yet so far.
Main aur meri tanhai
Aksar ye batein karte hain
Tum hoti to kaisa hota
tum hoti to aisa hota, tum hoti to waisa hota
Main aur meri tanhai ,aksar yeh baten karte hain
Looks like we will have sep Bulletin before Source baba comes back....
Cali baba ..Source baba.. Please arrive from India soon and grace us with your insights...
If no BTM, one more year
I still think it will be FY 2012 for BTM as they won't be able to give proper reason of demand vs visas vs danger of waste. It can be accomodated by SFM as we are as of yet far away from Aug 15 2007. if we had got even 5k FB, and were periliously close to July last bulletin, it cud have been the tipping point. So near yet so far.
Main aur meri tanhai
Aksar ye batein karte hain
Tum hoti to kaisa hota
tum hoti to aisa hota, tum hoti to waisa hota
Main aur meri tanhai ,aksar yeh baten karte hain
"This wait has made so many people loose it"
shivarajan, I agree. But a positive is, when I get really obsessed about something, typically in life, that event has happened in near future and I have got what I wanted
On a serious note, I do really believe in what I said above. We are not close to the tipping point yet, and such a point can indeed be obtained by Q2 FY 2012, by which DOS/USCIS would have projections on demand and existing backlog estimate of EB1, EB2 ROW, and would be in a better place to make an educated BTM. A BTM right now would lead to chaos in terms of any FIFO and anyone from April 15th to August 2007 would get his GC mostly by luck of the draw, I do not think they can enforce FIFO very very strictly, also BTM would also mean CP cases in even later 2007 or even 2008 grabbing interviews. Also at the time when waste of visas is of utmost importance to prevent, USCIS would be burdened in issuing receipts, EADs, APs etc instead of adjudicating and assigning GCs fast.
If we were close to July in last bulletin itself, I would give BTM a big probability, but since we are so far, I am going to stick with FY 2012 for BTM. If situation was like 2007, when communication and transparency between DOS, USCIS, VO and the public was very less, we would have absolutely seen a BTM or C for everyone.
Please feel free to critic this, I know I am playing the unpopular tune here, but I want to be realistic. I will be the most happiest person if am proved wrong.
Last edited by nishant2200; 08-07-2011 at 02:19 PM.
Its not unpopular. It is the fact. So, as we take the double dip of recession, hope we make it on the other side with GC in hand. Else, you always have Citizenship of your Country to content with
In my opinion, for upcoming bulletin:
SFM - Anywhere up until 1st August 2007
BTM - 1 January 2008 to April 15th 2008
UFM - 1st September 2007 to 1st November 2007
last week guys...hold your breath.
Nishanth, I agree with your perception of these terms.
I see EB1 140 approvals but not EB1 485, did any one calculate the time frame for Eb1: b/n 140 approval and 495 approval?
That could be key for the last month vb. ( same holds for Eb2 ROW)
shiv bhai...nishant didnt loose it... he is our inspiration... no more words needed i guess...
bro's and gals... some interesting takes on S&P downgrade...yes i know, it wud be moved to GD...until then have fun :-)...
"Yo momma so poor she raised her debt ceiling and the S&P STILL downgraded her."
"Until today I didn't even know America ran on batteries, never mind what size"
"They've changed the US from AAA to AA. All this time and they didn't realise they were using the wrong batteries."
Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data. The I/C regular cap is 5.5K, I believe that India alone contributes 6K of porting, assuming India's cap went just for porting this makes it 8.5K. May & June bulletins accounted for ~ 9K Allocation and Jul bulletin accounted for another 11.5K. So the total usage thus far is already 30K adding say 500 -1000 PWMB. For some reason I think people have been far less excited to maybe update their cases on Trackitt. My prediction for September has therefore always been conservative because I believe that maybe ~ 3K of SOFAD is left. Retrogression definitely is highly unlikely things is definitely not that bad. It is true that there are still people waiting from Jul but most of the cases are either complicated or in RFE. I see people are getting approvals quite fast after responding to RFE requirements.Spec what you say would've been true ONLY IF DoS would've actually allocated all those numbers. As of now hardly 17K have been allocated to EB2IC. So almost another 12-17K to go.
If Teddy's fears were to turn true, then we not only wouldn't see movement in Sep bulletin. But also would see retrogression in subsequent bulletins.
What I have suggested is - I would buy into those fears if I see surge in EB1 and EB2ROW approvals. I wouldn't be worried about 1-2 K approvals (ie. equivalent in trackitt), because 1-2K would only affect Sep movement. But if the surge is real surge as in 8-10K approvals then EB2IC dates must retrogress.
Since as of now we don't see any surge, since we see EB2IC approvals very thin, since there is a large visas available and since Sep bulletin is so close - naturally I am wondering if this is yet another ploy to do a calculated BTM.
We will know soon
The concern really is about the Aug approval trend, since the first week was a full working week the relative count of EB2-I approvals is 50% to all others, if you look at Jul the trend was a whitewash. This indicates that USCIS is struggling to close EB2-I cases in relative terms to other categories. Agreed less number of people are current however the trend does indicate a rise in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals. It needs further watching though. I believe there is huge pressure to approve atleast the cases of EB2 ROW and EB1 in the inventory considering that their I140 is approved, its a better report card for the agencies to approve these cases and not move the dates for EB1 I/C as dates after the PD are un-approvable, even by all the rules the spillover can only come by if EB2 ROW and EB1 cases are not there.
Q / Spec its really getting closer to the climax now. Till now EB2 ROW approvals on Trackitt have hovered around 90% of last year. I do feel that actuals are higher, Q you may also see that there is a pretty large number of un-updated cases for EB2 - I as well but not that many number of people are complaining. So EB2 ROW will definitely yield lesser SOFAD this year if we use a factor to boost he lower numbers. For some reason updating cases is not that popular anymore maybe its due to the increased clarity. However any skew or tilt that reduces the percentage of EB2 - I approvals to other categories diminishes the prospects of BTM.Teddy
I checked out overall approvals. They just are not there. Only 17 total cases approved across all categories ... all countries in Aug.
So something is stalled. Not sure what it is. But now that Spec has talked about conspiray theorylet me say that yes ... i do smell something that could result in some sort of BTM. We will see ... only a matter of 4-5 days from now.
Q I fully agree with you that the larger picture is still the same. However its almost like emergency brakes were applied for the Aug bulletin after things just rocketed in July. So yes the overall trend is great however the Aug trend with the limited visibility is not that good. We would need more people to come forward to post their approvals this would boost things up. On another note we are all awaiting good news with regards your approval. I remember your quote from 2 years back that all backlog till Mar 2007 - Jul 2007 will be cleared by Sep 2011 it has worked so well.
Nishant I fully agree with you, coming as close as possible to the tipping point is almost an essential condition for BTM. However September still represents the best time for the agencies to effect BTM, it is not about giving GC's so no allocation rules will be broken but it will help them to build a good pipeline.If no BTM, one more year
I still think it will be FY 2012 for BTM as they won't be able to give proper reason of demand vs visas vs danger of waste. It can be accomodated by SFM as we are as of yet far away from Aug 15 2007. if we had got even 5k FB, and were periliously close to July last bulletin, it cud have been the tipping point. So near yet so far.
TeddyK,
I agree with the bold part. Trying to understand, what trend/parameters indicate rise in EB1 & EB2ROW in the recent months?
"trend does indicate a rise in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals"
Like the bold much
Thanks, USCIS - DOS kind of applied the emergency brakes in Aug. Till Aug the trends were holding quite well. Now if we look at the limited Trackitt approvals in Aug, EB2 I just represents 50%. Normally this ratio would have been 80-85%. The numbers are small so this might skew up the numbers but it seems to be fairly consistent with the direction of the Aug VB.
EB1 - C – 3, EB1 - B – 1, EB2 ROW – 2, EB2 - I – 7, EB3 - I - 1
Thanks for the explanation. I see the discrepancy you are referring now. I agree with you. Just laying out an alternate thought as well: Approvals might be the effect of not-so-much-movement of EB2I in August and not the actual cause?
Comparing EB1 and EB2ROW numbers for last 7 months--as %change from previous month might give a different picture.
Totally agree with you, I also expressed similar thoughts in post # 5866 in my response to Q. Million dollar question is that have we already reaped and enjoyed those benefits and in what proportion. Really the VB is going to give the answer; this will certainly be a very important week for all of us. Good luck to everyone.
It has been a while since i thought about this stuff, since the dates were so far off.
A question - I have an approved I140 (august 2009), waiting for I485 to become current. If I understand it correctly, I cannot file for I485 right now. Will USCIS contact me when dates for I485 are current or when I am eligible to file I485? Or is it that I have to monitor the dates and have to file only when I am sure that the dates are current? How does this work?
I will appreciate any guidance on this.
Bro, Funny to compare with batteries, at least batteries are better than these ratings, INSIDE JOB movie gives a whole picture of these rating agencies & their ratings
wi
Onus is on you...
Onus is on you to file for Adjustment of Status. In fact, that's when the application becomes yours, until then it's your employer's petition. Any communication will ONLY be with your employer uptil 485 stage. Once you file for AOS, CIS starts communicating with you directly.
Department of State issues the cut off dates.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html
http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html
Familiarize yourself with the above two links and their reaches. Operation of the Numerical Control Process will tell you how around the 8th of each month, a visa bulletin is issued, that contains the cut off dates.
You want to check each month, as you never know. Although realistically, you are in for a long haul. As and when you familiarize yourself with the process, you will know which months to lay low, and which months to be on the lookout for.
You have to do this. No one, is going to inform you when you are eligible.
Teddy if its a belief then that is where we can't have a rational argument. If its belief then that's the end of the road for either agreement or disagreement.
Depending on how much is already consumed will change the explanation for low consumption in August. In my judgement this is artificially subdued. Its possible they artificially subdued it to make a case for a BTM. We will see ... "Dilli Door Nahin!".
Teddy I think we are in strong agreement. ROW consumption this year for EB2 is slightly higher than last year. Plus the ROW EB2 allocation is less - resulting in less SOFAD contribution overall.
On another note .... where you been !
p.s. - Until Friday when i checked trackitt data, it was still showing favorable EB1 EB2ROW trend. Just today I checked it again and it shows 19 EB1 approvals and 14 EB2ROW approvals in first 7 days of August. That is indeed a worrisome rate. On other hands EB2IC have had close to 45 approvals in first 2 weeks.
Last edited by qesehmk; 08-08-2011 at 01:21 AM. Reason: checked and added latest trackitt trend.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Trackitt - nothing unusual spike in approvals posted even at end of today, in either category.
Saw a guy with Nationality India, but country of chargeability Nepal, in EB2 ROW approved ... Makes you wonder what happens if born on the plane, does the airlines' nationality count, or the airspace you are in count
There are currently 13 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 13 guests)
Posting Permissions
