EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Sandeep2011]

3 years, I was in the same situation as you last year.

QUOTE=mesan123;6582]Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.[/QUOTE]

[vizcard]

Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for full-time company.

You are eligible for a 3-yr extension based on an approved I-140. I had mine extended by 3 yrs. If you don't then there are extenuating circumstances (like q's). It could also be a stupid money-making racket where you not only have to apply twice for the 797, but also pay the visa fee twice to get it stamped...although i doubt this is the case.

[haripathhi]

Yes, you could use your approved I140 for your 3-yr extension. Since you are employed full time for a company, the chances of extending your H1-B visa for
another 3 years are pretty good. Good Luck!

Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.

[mesan123]

Thank you for replies guys...hope i will get my 3 years extension ...

Yes, you could use your approved I140 for your 3-yr extension. Since you are employed full time for a company, the chances of extending your H1-B visa for
another 3 years are pretty good. Good Luck!

You are eligible for a 3-yr extension based on an approved I-140. I had mine extended by 3 yrs. If you don't then there are extenuating circumstances (like q's). It could also be a stupid money-making racket where you not only have to apply twice for the 797, but also pay the visa fee twice to get it stamped...although i doubt this is the case.

3 years, I was in the same situation as you last year.

QUOTE=mesan123;6582]Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.

[/QUOTE]

[nishant2200]

Thank you for replies guys...hope i will get my 3 years extension ...

I got 3 years too. Just approved 140 receipt number lawyer mentioned in the form in some box. If you want more detail I can look up. I have copies of everything.

[nishant2200]

I was trolling through the net, and in July 2007, the explanation given by DOS for making current was:

"EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008. "

Just a revisit on perspective, as to how a slight gamesmanship of showing chances of number waste under annual limit may lead to this kind of step.

[mesan123]

Thank you nishant, can you look up and message me(that would be great)... Thank you once again for your help

I got 3 years too. Just approved 140 receipt number lawyer mentioned in the form in some box. If you want more detail I can look up. I have copies of everything.

[Sandeep2011]

Mesan

With an approved I140 , You are eligible for 3 years of H1 extension beyond 6 years.

But getting 3 years extension is at the discretion of the officer handling your case. He/She might extend your status for 1 or 2 or 3 years truly based upon "nothing"

Any objections to my thought ?

I agree, there is no clear logic based on which consulates determine duration of your visa; at least I am not aware of any. In my case, I went to Delhi consulate and the consulate officer just asked me where am I in my GC process and he granted me a three year extension. Please check your passport expiration date though, make sure that you have at least more than a year left before your passport expires.

[Sandeep2011]

Folks, I just heard from one of my Chinese colleague that he received his 485 approval email yesterday. His PD was 03/12/07 and applied for his 485 when the dates became current for him this year.

[shaumack]

Folks, I just heard from one of my Chinese colleague that he received his 485 approval email yesterday. His PD was 03/12/07 and applied for his 485 when the dates became current for him this year.

This does not sound right. If he is EB2 then he must be current in August bulletin. Even if he applied on 01 August, there is no way he can approved in 4 days. Am I missing anything?

[Spectator]

Spec

I think there is a difference in what we are saying. I think you dont recognize that a very very large % of EB2IC cases are current-yet-unapproved (CYU). If you use trackitt data, then the % is almost 40%. Even if you say people dont update approvals immediately the % remains at least 25%. These CYU cases could get hurt if we see EB1 and EB2ROW 485-approval-surge.

While I do agree EB2IC approvals haven't come in August, I would be concerned for EB2IC CYU cases if we see more than YTD average approvals in EB1 and EB2ROW. That would mean YTD EB2IC movement may not be SFM and could be retrogressed.

I think you are looking at Aug and Sep and trying to speculcate how much a surge can hurt or not hurt. And I am looking in the prior months and thinking that almost 40% CYU cases are yet to approved and so if the surge is more then there is a tremendous potential for damage. Fortunately I just don't see the EB1 EB2ROW approvals that could hurt CYU cases for EB2IC.

I think the argument is going in circles. May be just try to find out yourself what % of EB2IC cases are CYU. That will immediately throw a light on what I am trying to convey.

p.s. - The reason I spent so much time on this discussion is because, I am not such a big believer in randomness when it comes to immigration approvals. At an individual level it may exists. But on large scale things need to move in a reasonable predictable way and when that doesn't happen as in August approvals (i..e this month) it smells fishy!

Q,

I keep saying that I don't think all the July approvals on Trackitt are in yet.

I agree, for all possible cases, the figure is around 40% still to come for the July VB movement.

Teddy has previously calculated that 20% of cases never get updated, so really there are only 20% missing at the moment.

It will take about 2 weeks for those to trickle in on Trackitt. Only then can we say if the figure is low. Even then, USCIS are probably still approving some July VB Current cases in August, because the later the PD made Current in the July VB, the more that have yet to be shown as approved.

The more that are unapproved, the better chance of BTM.

I agree that if that happens and later PD cases then get approved, that visas may run out before some of the earlier PDs get approval. Alternatively, as you say, if there is a big surge in EB1/EB2-ROW approvals, then the numbers available can disappear. In any scenario, there are enough visas for EB2-IC for the movement through the August VB COD, as long as later EB2-IC cases are not approved ahead of them.

Unfortunately, that has always been the case, since USCIS have never been able to follow FIFO very well.

I think we just have a different perspective on what it means and how much the gap can be closed.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Whatever that % is - it will be a common factor across all years. So when we do YoY comparison that information doesn't matter. So you can't take that X% out of the 40%. What you can however take out is the slow trickle of prior month cases. I would argue that majority of the trickle will be completed in a matter of 2 weeks. Its already 1 week. And when you look at full year numbers, the rest of trickle wouldn't lower the 40% to any significant %.

Anyway thats my last word on this online. Offline we can chat.

Q,

Teddy has previously calculated that 20% of cases never get updated, so really there are only 20% missing at the moment.

[veni001]

Q,

Teddy has previously calculated that 20% of cases never get updated, so really there are only 20% missing at the moment.

Spec

Whatever that % is - it will be a common factor across all years. So when we do YoY comparison that information doesn't matter.

Spec/Q,
Assuming most of the EB2I with PD before 08MAR2007 (~10k movement, July bulletin cut-off) received approvals by now then 340 represents 10K (17/day,85/week)
At this rate for August (~3k movement) we should be expecting ~4/day(or 22/week) EB2I approvals reported on trackitt? Am I correct?

[Jitesh]

How much spillover is expected for Sep 11 Visa Bulletin.
From 3rd post on 1st page,8,159 is needed for dates to move to Aug -07.

[Sandeep2011]

This does not sound right. If he is EB2 then he must be current in August bulletin. Even if he applied on 01 August, there is no way he can approved in 4 days. Am I missing anything?

My bad, the PD for him is 2/12 and not 3/12. Even in that case, we are talking about 5 weeks for approval. I couldn't believe it either that is why I thought of sharing it with forum. Please let me know if there is anything else that i should be asking him, which will give us more insight.

[Spectator]

Spec/Q,
Assuming most of the EB2I with PD before 08MAR2007 (~10k movement, July bulletin cut-off) received approvals by now then 340 represents 10K (17/day,85/week)
At this rate for August (~3k movement) we should be expecting ~4/day(or 22/week) EB2I approvals reported on trackitt? Am I correct?

For the period that is Current because of the August VB (March 8 to April 14 2007), there are only 77 primary applicant cases for EB2-I on Trackitt currently.

On top of that, we should also see further approvals from the period made Current by the July VB and any further porting cases.

[nishant2200]

Trackitt as of Saturday end.

EB1A - 0
EB1B - 2
EB1C - 3 (2 from India, one guy done in 107 days...)

EB2 Total : 18
EB2 I - 10, EB2 I NIW - 1
EB2 C - 2
EB2 ROW - 4, EB2 ROW NIW - 1 (out of the EB2 ROW, two from UAE, Bahrain, but Indian nationality, doesn't matter in our analysis, just an observation which Teddy will relate to in my offline discussions with him)

[superdesi2100]

Of 10 EB2 India approval on Trackitt, here are the priority dates -

01/13/2004 (porting?)
03/18/2004 (porting?)
12/28/2004 (porting?)
07/10/2006 (June Bulletin)
11/02/2006 (July Bulletin)
11/28/2006 (July Bulletin)
03/09/2007 (August Bulletin)
03/14/2007 (August Bulletin)
03/19/2007 (August Bulletin)
04/08/2007 (August Bulletin)

Only 4 August approval for EB2 India so far.

[nishant2200]

Guys, I have an observation. Porters use trackitt more than non porters sample size proportion wise. Agree?

[qesehmk]

Veni

Spec is right. So the total picture is:

for EB2I - ~900 approved YTD. ~800 pending.
of which ~300 are prior to Apr 2006 so one can easily discard them.
But still ~500 are pending as of today. That is a very significant number. And we should be seeing at least 15-20 approvals per day ... just to clear backlog till where the dates are today. If the dates move and THEY WILL move, we should be seeing close to 20 approvals.

My guess is approvals will pick up speed later part of this week AFTER bulletin is published.

Spec/Q,
Assuming most of the EB2I with PD before 08MAR2007 (~10k movement, July bulletin cut-off) received approvals by now then 340 represents 10K (17/day,85/week)
At this rate for August (~3k movement) we should be expecting ~4/day(or 22/week) EB2I approvals reported on trackitt? Am I correct?

How much spillover is expected for Sep 11 Visa Bulletin.
From 3rd post on 1st page,8,159 is needed for dates to move to Aug -07.

Jitesh - welcome. So far 17K applied. 17K more to go. 10K will be utilized to clear through Apr 15 i.e. the date made current in last bulletin. 7K will be utilized to advance date till first week of July. This is educated guess... there is of course no guarantee

[veni001]

For the period that is Current because of the August VB (March 8 to April 14 2007), there are only 77 primary applicant cases for EB2-I on Trackitt currently.

On top of that, we should also see further approvals from the period made Current by the July VB and any further porting cases.

Veni

Spec is right. So the total picture is:

for EB2I - ~900 approved YTD. ~800 pending.
of which ~300 are prior to Apr 2006 so one can easily discard them.
But still ~500 are pending as of today. That is a very significant number. And we should be seeing at least 15-20 approvals per day ... just to clear backlog till where the dates are today. If the dates move and THEY WILL move, we should be seeing close to 20 approvals.

My guess is approvals will pick up speed later part of this week AFTER bulletin is published.

Spec/Q,
I have to admit that i am not good at trackitt based predictions.

Looking at EBI 01JUL2006 to 15OCT2006 (June'11 VB) & 15OCT2006 to 08MAY2007 (July'11 VB), 485 inventory shows a ratio of 1:1.4
Comparing trackitt approvals for June'11 & July'11 show 1:1.3. When I apply teddy's 20% factor to these, i thought the numbers are very close!

I am hoping too, that the approvals (reported on trackitt) will pickup after this weekend, either way we will get a better picture by Friday when the demand data/bulletin is out.

[gchopeful123]

Eagerly awaiting any updates from "Source Baba" !!!

[nayekal]

Do we really need to have our I485 pending for more than 180 days to start using our EAD? What happens if we decide to leave the current job and go to a new one, before 180 days with pending I485 by using EAD? Is it illegal to use it or does it stop us from invoking AC21?

What happens to the pending I485 in case if I leave the company after applying before 180 days of pending status?

If we decide to join a new company with H1, then can spouse be able to retain the EAD?
After applying I485 and if I move to next company with H1, then if the 180 days pending period is over for I485, then will I be able to use EAD from that point of time.

[qesehmk]

nayekal pls see the answers (per my best knowledge) in blue

Do we really need to have our I485 pending for more than 180 days to start using our EAD? For the same employer - No. For a different employer Yes. What happens if we decide to leave the current job and go to a new one, before 180 days with pending I485 by using EAD? You are not protected by AC21 in that case. Which means if your employer withdraws I-140 then your 485 could be cancelled immediately. Is it illegal to use it or does it stop us from invoking AC21? The use of EAD itself shouldn't be illegal.

What happens to the pending I485 in case if I leave the company after applying before 180 days of pending status? If employer withdraws 140, 485 will be cancelled. If USCIS finds out you switched companies, they may cancel 485 since you don't have AC21 protection.

If we decide to join a new company with H1, then can spouse be able to retain the EAD? Yes as long as 485 is still in place.
After applying I485 and if I move to next company with H1, then if the 180 days pending period is over for I485, then will I be able to use EAD from that point of time. You need to read whether the 180 days condition is only on the period of ellapsed or period ellapsed with the GC sponsor. I think its the former but I am not sure.

[leo07]

like it

Eagerly awaiting any updates from "Source Baba" !!!