EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[druvraj]

nishanth,

can you please let me know what these acronymns stand for ..

BTM , SOFAD and so on ...

thanks

BTM - Big Temporary Movement

SOFAD - Spill Over Fall Across Demand

Q has done an amazng job on the first page itself. Please refer to that page on this very forum.

[qesehmk]

I haven't tried before but a rough way to calculate could be as follows:

Look at trackitt EB2IC cases w PD in 2006 that are pending. Note the number down. Then filter those cases that were last updated in Sep 2010 or before. More than likely these people whose cases are current but are still pending and hte people don't care to update them is the right population to look at. I will assume 80% cases are either already appproved but not updated or withdrawn etc. Then of that I will assume 80% cases actually approved and 20% withdrawn. That 20% would be the 2006 cases that were withdrawn. I will take that as a % of total approved cases from 2006. That would be the % people typically going back to India.

Again ... a very rough estimate. You can change your assumptions and figure out yourself.

Gurus - have a question. If there are any spare visas (not saying there will be, but just an IF) and they have to pass them down to EB3, can they do so without making the EB category current?

[Spectator]

excellent Q.

so then:

continuing my above psots, so this projection says, 15k - 2k (PWMB reduction, I am counting 3k PWMB instead of 5k) = 13k known demand.

5.6k for regular I/C available.

reduces to 7.4k known demand projection.

leftover visas projection worst case for FY 2012: EB4 - 7k , EB5 - 4k, EB1 - 3k, EB2 ROW - 4k = 18k

18k - 7.4k = 10.6k

10.6k / 2.5k approx new demand a month = 4.25

4.25 months post August 15 2007 is 22nd December 2007. Add some buffer for safety for intake in BTM. Hence anywhere from 22nd December 2007 to Q1 2008, by the most conservative calculations

nishant,

Glad to see you are really getting into this!

Here's some figures that might help you.

On the same basis as I reached 3.5k above, the number to clear the rest of August through the end of December 2007 would be 8.9k. The total number from April 15 2007 through the end of December 2007 would be 12.4k.

That, of course excludes any porting cases.

A question. Where is the 7k for EB4 coming from? EB4 has not been a contributor to spillover to date.

Looking forward to the next iteration.

[soggadu]

I agree. Some people may have disagreement by one or two months here and there. But the grand picture is that if USCIS needs to approve all these cases by Sep 2012 then they must be in the system latest by March 2012.

Team... so everybody is now anticipating the aug bulletin to go beyond Aug 07 ?

[vchirakala]

I think the sep bulletin ..thats what you meant right soggadu ??

Team... so everybody is now anticipating the aug bulletin to go beyond Aug 07 ?

[stillanoptimist]

Isn't this memo old news? The preliminary memo (which is what I think this was) was to just propose a rule which would go through committees and discussions towards final rule-making.The USCIS abandoned this approach when pressured by legislators who wanted to go with CIR.

The H4 EAD memo has the following....Does this mean the rule is approved... What do you guys think????


Ex tend employment authorization to H-4 dependent. Spouses of H-I B pr'incipals where the principals are also applicants for lawful permanent residence under AC 21.

USCIS Senior Leaders have already approved this course of action; it is therefore recommended
in the context of identifying administrative relief options that their decision be communicated to
the Department of Homeland Security and to the White House.

Implementation Method: Notice of Proposed Rule making (NPRM).

Resources/Considerations: Coordinate with DHS Policy and White House prior to rule drafting.
uscis systems (CLAIMS, etc.) will need to be modified 10 accommodate EADs for this group
of H-4s.

Target! Date: Minimum of 12 months to issue final rule.

[Spectator]

Team... so everybody is now anticipating the aug bulletin to go beyond Aug 07 ?

soggadu,

This is talking about next year FY2012.

[bieber]

nishant,

Glad to see you are really getting into this!

Here's some figures that might help you.

On the same basis as I reached 3.5k above, the number to clear the rest of August through the end of December 2007 would be 8.9k. The total number from April 15 2007 through the end of December 2007 would be 12.4k.

That, of course excludes any porting cases.

A question. Where is the 7k for EB4 coming from? EB4 has not been a contributor to spillover to date.

Looking forward to the next iteration.

Spec,

is this EB2I only or EB2IC? I have 16k that you calculated for EB2IC for 2007 which excludes existining inventory and porting

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I just saw the approval trend for Trackitt. We should note that this month has seen all working days. There are only 14 approvals so far. A point to note is that EB1 approvals seem to be up and EB2-I approvals are just 50% of the pie.
Lets see how the trend shapes up in the next 4-5 days, right now the figures are small we should not be judgmental about it, however its prudent to note that when this year began even small Trackitt numbers gave a very good indicator of the trend. The small numbers seem to indicate that numbers overall maybe close to exhaustion otherwise we could have expected more approvals.

EB1 - C - 3
EB1 - B - 1
EB2 ROW - 2
EB2 - I - 7
EB3 - I - 1

[Spectator]

Spec,

is this EB2I only or EB2IC? I have 16k that you calculated for EB2IC for 2007 which excludes existing inventory and porting

It is for EB2-IC with the assumptions I gave above.

The 16k (actually the 15.5k I mentioned) is still valid, but didn't, for instance, include any assumptions about abandonments and I have also lowered the ratio from 2.1 to 2.05 in the latest figures.

[nishant2200]

My bad. Wrong impression about EB4 then. Need to re-calibrate why I have this 18k worse case SO in my mind.

I am currently in a meeting looking at spreadsheets etc presentation by the chief architect, and internally my mind is thinking about this

nishant,

Glad to see you are really getting into this!

Here's some figures that might help you.

On the same basis as I reached 3.5k above, the number to clear the rest of August through the end of December 2007 would be 8.9k. The total number from April 15 2007 through the end of December 2007 would be 12.4k.

That, of course excludes any porting cases.

A question. Where is the 7k for EB4 coming from? EB4 has not been a contributor to spillover to date.

Looking forward to the next iteration.

[vedu]

This site lists I-140 and I-485 approval rate on yearly basis. How authentic is this information? Did people already discuss this on this forum?

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/usci...tatistics.html

[bieber]

It is for EB2-IC with the assumptions I gave above.

The 16k (actually the 15.5k I mentioned) is still valid, but didn't, for instance, include any assumptions about abandonments and I have also lowered the ratio from 2.1 to 2.05 in the latest figures.

Thanks Spec

[Spectator]

Friends I just saw the approval trend for Trackitt. We should note that this month has seen all working days. There are only 14 approvals so far. A point to note is that EB1 approvals seem to be up and EB2-I approvals are just 50% of the pie.
Lets see how the trend shapes up in the next 4-5 days, right now the figures are small we should not be judgmental about it, however its prudent to note that when this year began even small Trackitt numbers gave a very good indicator of the trend. The small numbers seem to indicate that numbers overall maybe close to exhaustion otherwise we could have expected more approvals.

EB1 - C - 3
EB1 - B - 1
EB2 ROW - 2
EB2 - I - 7
EB3 - I - 1

Teddy,

There is always a lag before the true numbers seem to appear on Trackitt.

Whilst compiling the daily figures, probably 80% (a guess, but certainly the vast majority) of the those I have added in August have had a July approval date.

It is an interesting observation and I have also noticed a slight upswing in EB1 approvals.

I note and agree with your caution.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Check your filters. I can see 40+ Indian cases alone for this month. Roughly 10 EB2IC per day are being approved.

However this is still too less. We should be seeing 22 or so per day.

Friends I just saw the approval trend for Trackitt. We should note that this month has seen all working days. There are only 14 approvals so far. A point to note is that EB1 approvals seem to be up and EB2-I approvals are just 50% of the pie.
Lets see how the trend shapes up in the next 4-5 days, right now the figures are small we should not be judgmental about it, however its prudent to note that when this year began even small Trackitt numbers gave a very good indicator of the trend. The small numbers seem to indicate that numbers overall maybe close to exhaustion otherwise we could have expected more approvals.

EB1 - C - 3
EB1 - B - 1
EB2 ROW - 2
EB2 - I - 7
EB3 - I - 1

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

Check your filters. I can see 40+ Indian cases alone for this month. Roughly 10 EB2IC per day are being approved.

However this is still too less. We should be seeing 22 or so per day.

Q if you sort the list without any criteria by the I485 / Approval denial date there are only 14 cases for 08/2011. Alternately in the advanced settings put Aug 2011 to Aug 2011 as the 485 approval range. Please let me know if Iam missing something. Are you looking at Jul by any chance ?

[cantwaitlonger]

Many people who applied during Jul 2007 could have abandoned their applications and left for their home countries, courtesy the 2008 crisis and lousy job market. Before approving these preadjudicated cases that have been pending for ~4yrs, does USCIS check to see if the people behind the applications are indeed available to receive their GCs? Woudn't this lead to serious wastage if these applications were abandoned?
If there has been a prior discussion on this, pls point me to it. Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Teddy

You are right! I was only looking at last update date in August.

If the trend continues through Tue next week - this could be a very good news (BTM) or very bad news (Retro) in Sep bulletin. Lets see.

Q if you sort the list without any criteria by the I485 / Approval denial date there are only 14 cases for 08/2011. Alternately in the advanced settings put Aug 2011 to Aug 2011 as the 485 approval range. Please let me know if Iam missing something. Are you looking at Jul by any chance ?

[Spectator]

This site lists I-140 and I-485 approval rate on yearly basis. How authentic is this information? Did people already discuss this on this forum?

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/usci...tatistics.html

vedu,

I have seen the site and searched for an explanation of what the figures represent and the source of the figures, but but I have not found that information.

The totals for I-140 and I-485 do not match the data published by USCIS on the dashboard or recent reports.

I prefer to use the official data that USCIS provide.

The approval % data would be useful, but I can't trust the data without knowing how it is compiled.

[nishant2200]

Q, I think if its retro, then it means DOS/USCIS/VO themselves caught by surprise. I think their antics seem highly in favor of moving cautiously and avoiding dates retro.

Teddy

You are right! I was only looking at last update date in August.

If the trend continues through Tue next week - this could be a very good news (BTM) or very bad news (Retro) in Sep bulletin. Lets see.

[qesehmk]

i m thinking the antics are to make a case for btm. SPEC may have some insight how law ties their hands for moving dates and how such kind of artificial stalling might allow them to move dates

Q, I think if its retro, then it means DOS/USCIS/VO themselves caught by surprise. I think their antics seem highly in favor of moving cautiously and avoiding dates retro.

[leo07]

Good one Teddy.
Historically, Trackitt data from first 5-7 working days of every month had been a good indicator of the direction of the vb. Let's keep our fingers crossed. So far it correlates to 3-4 weeks of VB movement as of now?

Friends I just saw the approval trend for Trackitt. We should note that this month has seen all working days. There are only 14 approvals so far. A point to note is that EB1 approvals seem to be up and EB2-I approvals are just 50% of the pie.
Lets see how the trend shapes up in the next 4-5 days, right now the figures are small we should not be judgmental about it, however its prudent to note that when this year began even small Trackitt numbers gave a very good indicator of the trend. The small numbers seem to indicate that numbers overall maybe close to exhaustion otherwise we could have expected more approvals.

EB1 - C - 3
EB1 - B - 1
EB2 ROW - 2
EB2 - I - 7
EB3 - I - 1

[TeddyKoochu]

Q / Nishant, Guys there is another angle to this, spillover to EB2 I/C should only happen if there are insufficient number of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases. The inventory shows almost an unprecedented backlog of both EB2 ROW and EB1 so this could definitely be a way to show good results within the approvable inventory, cases of EB2 I/C beyond 15th Apr are not approvable. Iam sure a lot of management reporting must be happening within USCIS / DOS and after Jul this point must have caught their attention. Overall I feel this is an indicator that there will be conservative movement in September, BTM is more likely if the dates can come closer to 15th Aug at the first place or there is a danger of SOFAD falling down, I don't think that’s the case. Iam sure spec can give us the legal angle, the concern here is that the further we are away from 15-AUG-2007 by the Sep VB greater will be the delay in BTM or any kind of intake.

[qesehmk]

Teddy
so do we see ROW EB2 or Overall eB1 surge? At least till July end it was not there.

Q / Nishant, Guys there is another angle to this, spillover to EB2 I/C should only happen if there are insufficient number of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases. The inventory shows almost an unprecedented backlog of both EB2 ROW and EB1 so this could definitely be a way to show good results within the approvable inventory, cases of EB2 I/C beyond 15th Apr are not approvable. Iam sure a lot of management reporting must be happening within USCIS / DOS and after Jul this point must have caught their attention. Overall I feel this is an indicator that there will be conservative movement in September, BTM is more likely if the dates can come closer to 15th Aug at the first place or there is a danger of SOFAD falling down, I don't think that’s the case. Iam sure spec can give us the legal angle, the concern here is that the further we are away from 15-AUG-2007 by the Sep VB greater will be the delay in BTM or any kind of intake.

[Spectator]

i m thinking the antics are to make a case for btm. SPEC may have some insight how law ties their hands for moving dates and how such kind of artificial stalling might allow them to move dates

Q,

I don't think you need any special insight from me on this.

DOS have to set the Cut Off Dates for the September VB shortly.

The only real thing of any concern now is that visas are not wasted.

If there appear to be low approvals, DOS might justifiably claim that they had to move the EB2-IC COD because there was a danger that visas would be wasted. % wise it would fill the shortfall.

I'm not entirely convinced all the possible July cases have been approved yet.

I speculated quite a while ago that RFEs could be used strategically to reduce apparent demand to engineer an outcome. I was only being semi-serious.

After the VB is published, if demand "miraculously" increases, then it is too late to alter the COD movement.

It probably is a little early to form an opinion. By the time it becomes possible, the VB will be published anyway.

I love a good conspiracy theory!