EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

That sounds plenty. If you think about both bounds 3K and 6K and then calculate per month - that comes to about 500-1000 per month - given that it is highly unlikely that somebody prior to Mar 2007 couldn't file. (p.s. Mar-Aug is 6 months. )

500-1000 is almost 25-50% of the EB2IC rate per month. It is highly unlikely that more than 50% people missed the boat. But its entirely possible that the lower bound could be less than 25%.

As far as I can tell, the theoretical maximum for EB2-IC would be about 6k.

[Spectator]

soggadu,

Here's my opinion.

The White House asked the various agencies for some creative suggestions to alleviate problems in the system that could be implement by regulation rather than a change to the law.

In that context, USCIS suggested this proposal and how it might be implemented.

USCIS are unlikely to implement it of their own back and it has gone deathly quiet since this surfaced. There was intense criticism of some of the other suggestions after the memo was leaked.

At various times USCIS have also proposed moving to an I-485 pre-registration scheme - again something that appears to have been quietly dropped.

It is good that people have thought about this issue, but I would be surprised if it actually happens.

[nishant2200]

As far as I can tell, the theoretical maximum for EB2-IC would be about 6k.

Thank you. muchos gracias.

[nishant2200]

Here is the memo copy ..........

http://www2.nationalreview.com/memo_UCIS_072910.html

Excellent.

Now I see that it only says H4 for those whose principal applicant is already extended H under AC21. It does not mention that the principal applicant needs to have a pending I-485.

You can have your H1 extended for a year or three years under AC21 law, if your labor is approved and 140 pending, or 140 approved , respectively, and you belong to a retrogressed country.

[TeddyKoochu]

That sounds plenty. If you think about both bounds 3K and 6K and then calculate per month - that comes to about 500-1000 per month - given that it is highly unlikely that somebody prior to Mar 2007 couldn't file. (p.s. Mar-Aug is 6 months. )

500-1000 is almost 25-50% of the EB2IC rate per month. It is highly unlikely that more than 50% people missed the boat. But its entirely possible that the lower bound could be less than 25%.

Guys I agree with you that we would hardly find any April PWMB's, this count starts from May. PWMB's mostly had their labors filed in the Atlanta service center which was taking 2-3 months those days as opposed to Chicago which was taking 2-3 days. In the inventory that I had created long back, I had put in the following figures May - 500, Jun - 1000, Jul -2000. These figures are guesstimates based on the demand in those months and a likelihood of people being PWMB's. In that light Jul figures are high because Jul had a very high number of applicants and most Atlanta folks for Jul would have missed for sure. This calculation is not as elegant as what Veni & Spec have calculated in facts and data but Ball Park the guesstimates will be ok. Jul 2007 really represented the peak of filing.

[Spectator]

That sounds plenty. If you think about both bounds 3K and 6K and then calculate per month - that comes to about 500-1000 per month - given that it is highly unlikely that somebody prior to Mar 2007 couldn't file. (p.s. Mar-Aug is 6 months. )

500-1000 is almost 25-50% of the EB2IC rate per month. It is highly unlikely that more than 50% people missed the boat. But its entirely possible that the lower bound could be less than 25%.

Q,

I think the upper bound is totally unrealistic. The figures are based on the PERM data for Certifications after August 17 2007

The assumptions I used for the 3.5k were:

PERM to I-485 -------- 80%
I-140 to I-485 -------- 2.05
EB2 % ---------------- 60%
Still Active ------------- 85%

which converted to

Part April ------- 130
May ------------ 584
June ----------- 926
July ---------- 1,003
Part August ---- 878
Total --------- 3,521

I leave it to you to decide whether that is realistic.

[soggadu]

soggadu,

Here's my opinion.

The White House asked the various agencies for some creative suggestions to alleviate problems in the system that could be implement by regulation rather than a change to the law.

In that context, USCIS suggested this proposal and how it might be implemented.

USCIS are unlikely to implement it of their own back and it has gone deathly quiet since this surfaced. There was intense criticism of some of the other suggestions after the memo was leaked.

At various times USCIS have also proposed moving to an I-485 pre-registration scheme - again something that appears to have been quietly dropped.

It is good that people have thought about this issue, but I would be surprised if it actually happens.

Thank you Spec... I really felt it was done deal as they said it is already approved...but as you said, it can be dropped at any time... also the controversies surrounding this leaked memo are mostly for other suggestions and i see/read no controversies for this H4 suggestion... keeping my fingers crossed....

[nishant2200]

Guys I agree with you that we would hardly find any April PWMB's, this count starts from May. PWMB's mostly had their labors filed in the Atlanta service center which was taking 2-3 months those days as opposed to Chicago which was taking 2-3 days. In the inventory that I had created long back, I had put in the following figures May - 500, Jun - 1000, Jul -2000. These figures are guesstimates based on the demand in those months and a likelihood of people being PWMB's. In that light Jul figures are high because Jul had a very high number of applicants and most Atlanta folks for Jul would have missed for sure. This calculation is not as elegant as what Veni & Spec have calculated in facts and data but Ball Park the guesstimates will be ok. Jul 2007 really represented the peak of filing.

Teddy, I also think that once dates got current in July, many individuals got "awakened" to the big guy called GC, and they pushed their companies to start the GC process. There was also a layman logic of since everyone till now is current, the next opening will take us in, not everyone thought about movement with retrogression can be this serious or slow. I have got this input after talking with various acquaintances. Hence, there is a definite bulge in 2007-2008.

[Stemcell]

Hello people,

I came across this blog couple of weeks back while searching for some more advanced information regarding priority dates. And I must tell you, I have been following it religiously from that point. In fact, I check this blog every 1-2 hours every day. It is becoming kind of an addiction now. The gurus and many other have been doing an amazing job churning out these difficult calculations and logically predicting the PDs. To be honest, I suck at Math and Statistics. I am a General Internist Physician working in a decent size hospital in a mid-size town and doing these calculations is not my cup of tea. But I truly appreciate the effort from all of you to provide more clarity about the process. Many thanks to those who have become current or have obtained their GCs but still extending their helping hands.

I am also a part of the EB2 mess. The only difference is that my PD is in 2011 unlike some of you have who have their PDs in 2007 and 2008. No hospital files for our green card during our 3 years of post-graduation training (MD) since they know we are going to leave once our training is over. So we always end up wasting 3 years of H1B. Unfortunately, I did my post-graduation from a small community hospital and I don't meet criteria for EB1A or EB1B since I didn't find a good opportunity to do research and publications. My attorney advised me not to file for EB2NIW saying that the applications are complex and it takes a long time these days to approve those applications. Also, there is no significant advantage over regular EB2 either except LC requirement is waived since the PDs are retrogressed.

I don't want to sound too pessimistic in my first post but I believe the waiting times for people in EB2IC remain terrible and will remain terrible (EB3 is out of question obviously with even longer wait times) unless the Congress brings some kind of legislation to recapture the unused visa numbers from previous years, remove the country limit or stop counting dependents on the available visa numbers. Just my 2 cents on this.

Thanks again for all the effort people are putting in. Good luck to those who are waiting to be current and congrats to those who are about to be current and those who have been greened.

Regards.

Jonty
I hear you man.
Very similar situation as your's.
I have been hanging in there waiting to do Fellowship since past 5 years and the wait is killing me.....If i had to start all over again i would do Fellowship first and then wait it out. If your happy being a General Internist there is nothing wrong with that of course.

[nishant2200]

Coming back to PWMB which have not yet surfaced. 3.5k to 6k. Let's say I am taking 4.5k, and adding 500 for PWMB who surfaced in last bulletin.

Last demand data has around 10k people left.

last movement reduced that demand by 3k and now 7k are left.

Suppose dates move to full extent of PWMB grabbing.

7k demand left + 5k PWMB = 12k demand to begin new FY 2012 with.

Each month, let's say 500 porting, worst case, leading to 6k porting in a year.

So they already have a demand of 12k/12 + 6k/12 = 1500 visas per month.

just speaking loud rough calculations.

we desperately need good SOFAD next FY

[nishant2200]

Found a hole.

This September bulletin will further reduce the 7k demand left by something. Let's say 3k.

so 4k demand left + 5k PWMB = 9k demand to begin FY 2012 with.

9k/12 + 6k/12 = 1250 visas per month.

Coming back to PWMB which have not yet surfaced. 3.5k to 6k. Let's say I am taking 4.5k, and adding 500 for PWMB who surfaced in last bulletin.

Last demand data has around 10k people left.

last movement reduced that demand by 3k and now 7k are left.

Suppose dates move to full extent of PWMB grabbing.

7k demand left + 5k PWMB = 12k demand to begin new FY 2012 with.

Each month, let's say 500 porting, worst case, leading to 6k porting in a year.

So they already have a demand of 12k/12 + 6k/12 = 1500 visas per month.

just speaking loud rough calculations.

we desperately need good SOFAD next FY

[qesehmk]

Spec

I agree. That's why I said 6K is plenty.

In fact 3.5K itself seems reasonably accurage. May be + or - 1K.

Teddy, your numbers match Specs but I guess the PERM approvals are more spread out than your assumptions.

I remember on IV, I had done some calculations and I had thought that 7% people missed filing between Jan and Aug. So that number itself was probably less than 3.5K. May be 4K could be used as upper bound with very high certainty.

Q,

I think the upper bound is totally unrealistic. The figures are based on the PERM data for Certifications after August 17 2007

The assumptions I used for the 3.5k were:

PERM to I-485 -------- 80%
I-140 to I-485 -------- 2.05
EB2 % ---------------- 60%
Still Active ------------- 85%

which converted to

Part April ------- 130
May ------------ 584
June ----------- 926
July ---------- 1,003
Part August ---- 878
Total --------- 3,521

I leave it to you to decide whether that is realistic.

Guys I agree with you that we would hardly find any April PWMB's, this count starts from May. PWMB's mostly had their labors filed in the Atlanta service center which was taking 2-3 months those days as opposed to Chicago which was taking 2-3 days. In the inventory that I had created long back, I had put in the following figures May - 500, Jun - 1000, Jul -2000. These figures are guesstimates based on the demand in those months and a likelihood of people being PWMB's. In that light Jul figures are high because Jul had a very high number of applicants and most Atlanta folks for Jul would have missed for sure. This calculation is not as elegant as what Veni & Spec have calculated in facts and data but Ball Park the guesstimates will be ok. Jul 2007 really represented the peak of filing.

[nishant2200]

continuing my above psots, so this projection says, 15k known demand.

5.6k for regular I/C available.

reduces to 9.4k known demand projection.

leftover visas: EB4 - 7k , EB5 - 4k, EB1 - 3k, EB2 ROW - 4k = 18k

18k - 9.4k = 8.6k

8.6k / 2.5k approx new demand a month = 3.5

3.5 months post August 15 2007 is 1st December 2007. Add some buffer for safety for intake in BTM. Hence anywhere from 1st December 2007 to Q1 2008, by the most conservative calculations

[qesehmk]

Nishant

I was going to say that. But you found it yourself! Agree overall. PWMB I think would be lower than 6K. May be 3K is more than enough and some of that is already factored into ROW. So the real hit for EB2IC could be 2K.

Found a hole.

This September bulletin will further reduce the 7k demand left by something. Let's say 3k.

so 4k demand left + 5k PWMB = 9k demand to begin FY 2012 with.

9k/12 + 6k/12 = 1250 visas per month.

[nishant2200]

excellent Q.

so then:

continuing my above psots, so this projection says, 15k - 2k (PWMB reduction, I am counting 3k PWMB instead of 5k) = 13k known demand.

5.6k for regular I/C available.

reduces to 7.4k known demand projection.

leftover visas projection worst case for FY 2012: EB4 - 7k , EB5 - 4k, EB1 - 3k, EB2 ROW - 4k = 18k

18k - 7.4k = 10.6k

10.6k / 2.5k approx new demand a month = 4.25

4.25 months post August 15 2007 is 22nd December 2007. Add some buffer for safety for intake in BTM. Hence anywhere from 22nd December 2007 to Q1 2008, by the most conservative calculations

[qesehmk]

I agree. Some people may have disagreement by one or two months here and there. But the grand picture is that if USCIS needs to approve all these cases by Sep 2012 then they must be in the system latest by March 2012.

excellent Q.

so then:

continuing my above psots, so this projection says, 15k - 2k (PWMB reduction, I am counting 3k PWMB instead of 5k) = 13k known demand.

5.6k for regular I/C available.

reduces to 7.4k known demand projection.

leftover visas projection worst case for FY 2012: EB4 - 7k , EB5 - 4k, EB1 - 3k, EB2 ROW - 4k = 18k

18k - 7.4k = 10.6k

10.6k / 2.5k approx new demand a month = 4.25

4.25 months post August 15 2007 is 22nd December 2007. Add some buffer for safety for intake in BTM. Hence anywhere from 22nd December 2007 to Q1 2008, by the most conservative calculations

[zenmaster]

Guys,
I am tempted to make one final bet for this FY !
Sep Bulletin is going to go for BTM until mid2008 !

[kolugc]

My friend with PD 22 march 2007 got 485 approved today. He is not on Trackitt....

[nishant2200]

K, I am really happy to know that CO acknowledges this being a area which is being looked upon. That also to me shows that he is aware that people would love a BTM just to get EAD

Ron is correct, without changing the language of the legislation, this cannot happen potentially.

However, just like in case of CP, when the DOS happily sends for a invoice on the assumption the date may become current in the next few months, "interpreting" the language to be "an immigrant visa may be available in the immediate future", and hence justifying a BTM on the grounds of enabling the adjudicating agency (USCIS) to in turn enable the DOS to not waste visas and follow their SO law, could be theoritically possible. This is a very important premise of CP workflow already. If that is not possible, DOS is afraid to take that step, then to my mind, we would have to wait for the point when demand becomes 0, visa available is > 0, and DOS makes the category current, whilst supplying the >0 visas in meantime to the next eligible category, and if there is no next eligible, the visas would go to FB next FY, and if they don't consume, waste.

(In above we can also say that demand is such that visas are more than it, and can be assigned to in the next bulletin month, so if you say that only 100 demand, and 500 visas ready to be allocated next month to this demand, then basically to me, it sounds same as 0 and > 0)

Ron Gotcher says..

"At the AILA California Conference last November, Charlie Oppenheim was asked if he saw any chance of a repeat of the July 2007 situation. He replied that he didn't, but that there were active talks being held with an idea toward allowing those with approved preference petitions (I-130/I-140) to apply for adjustment of status immediately, even if their priority dates were not yet current. I'm not quite sure how they could square that with the requirement of Section 245(a)(3) "an immigrant visa is immediately available to him at the time his application is filed." Still, if they offer it, I won't turn it down."


What do you guys think?

[qesehmk]

Guys.

After nnnn's name change, I received another request today and I did it.

But in future for such requests I am going to have to ask you to reregister. Apologize in advance for the same.

Regards
Q

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty
I hear you man.
Very similar situation as your's.
I have been hanging in there waiting to do Fellowship since past 5 years and the wait is killing me.....If i had to start all over again i would do Fellowship first and then wait it out. If your happy being a General Internist there is nothing wrong with that of course.

That is true my friend. I want to do fellowship also. Applied for fellowship during residency but did not get many interviews. Whatever interviews I gave, I was told that they will prefer Citizen and GC holders first. If they don't get them, then they will look for people with J1. H1Bs are last priority.

And being from the same profession, I can understand how difficult it must be for you to be waiting from last 5 years waiting to do fellowship. I hope the situation improves soon especially when this country has such a shortage of Primary Care Physicians.

When I signed the job, my employer told me that he was looking for eligible candidates from last 6-7 months and only 5 people came for interview. All of them were on H1B and not a single US citizen or GC holder applied. That is the story with every recruiter and hospital with Primary Care Physicians, be it a big city or small town.

Sorry, this was a comment deviating from the main topic. Administrators, please feel free to remove if it is not suitable.

[druvraj]

I agree. Some people may have disagreement by one or two months here and there. But the grand picture is that if USCIS needs to approve all these cases by Sep 2012 then they must be in the system latest by March 2012.

I feel like there might be a lot of people from EB2IC who have left for their country of birth to take on more lucrative offer or simple many companies in US give fellow Indians and Chinese similar pay but work in their respective countries. Is there any place which can calculate these dropouts?

[vishnu]

Gurus - have a question. If there are any spare visas (not saying there will be, but just an IF) and they have to pass them down to EB3, can they do so without making the EB category current?

[vchirakala]

nishanth,

can you please let me know what these acronymns stand for ..

BTM , SOFAD and so on ...

thanks

K, I am really happy to know that CO acknowledges this being a area which is being looked upon. That also to me shows that he is aware that people would love a BTM just to get EAD

Ron is correct, without changing the language of the legislation, this cannot happen potentially.

However, just like in case of CP, when the DOS happily sends for a invoice on the assumption the date may become current in the next few months, "interpreting" the language to be "an immigrant visa may be available in the immediate future", and hence justifying a BTM on the grounds of enabling the adjudicating agency (USCIS) to in turn enable the DOS to not waste visas and follow their SO law, could be theoritically possible. This is a very important premise of CP workflow already. If that is not possible, DOS is afraid to take that step, then to my mind, we would have to wait for the point when demand becomes 0, visa available is > 0, and DOS makes the category current, whilst supplying the >0 visas in meantime to the next eligible category, and if there is no next eligible, the visas would go to FB next FY, and if they don't consume, waste.

(In above we can also say that demand is such that visas are more than it, and can be assigned to in the next bulletin month, so if you say that only 100 demand, and 500 visas ready to be allocated next month to this demand, then basically to me, it sounds same as 0 and > 0)

[natvyas]

nishanth,

can you please let me know what these acronymns stand for ..

BTM , SOFAD and so on ...

thanks

Please refer to page 1 of the thread