EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[donvar]

I vote for removing the dependents from being counted for visa numbers

I heard dependents from Diversity lottery are not counted towards the quota.
All controlled movements and restrictive policies are only for EB2 and EB3.

[rahil1]

There was a news while ago that H4 can get EAD where H1b is on AC21 , which means are on H1b ext beyond 6th year based on pending labor more than 365 days , approved labor and/ or approved I 140 and who does not have got chance to apply for I 485 because of retrogression. It can't be done through just internal memo but it has to go through rule making process where uscis , dhs or dos will publish rule for comment for 90 days and after that they can send out internal memo to all officer to approve such a request and also modify EAD form to accommodate such category.

Just to make it clear in past pre filling I 485 without date being current was on rule making agenda for 2 years and never make through finally DHS took it off.

No. The memo stated that EAD will be given to dependents of primary who has filed 485 but dependents haven't. One case will be primary applying 485 when single and dates retgrogress, when he gets married he is unable to file 485for his wife as priority date is not current. So such dependents will be given EAD

[leo07]

come on now...what did the poor H1B holder do to not deserve EAD?
EAD for spouse and not for the primary applicant Can you please point me to source, if you don't mind.

Thanks!

Recently there was a report saying, with H1b extension H4 will be eligilbe for EAD (starting in Q2 2012)

[Spectator]

I understand spec...but where are those numbers accounted? can they have an un accounted category?... there is always a category when they issue GC from lottery to family... where do the dependents fit in? should they be charged with family? Lot of questions arise with this...

There are already classes that are not subject to numerical limitations :

INA 201(b)(1) Aliens Not Subject to Direct Numerical Limitations. - Aliens described in this subsection, who are not subject to the worldwide levels or numerical limitations of subsection (a), are as follows:

(1) (A) Special immigrants described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of section 101(a)(27) .

(B) Aliens who are admitted under section 207 or whose status is adjusted under section 209 .

(C) Aliens whose status is adjusted to permanent residence under section 210 , or 245A .

(D) Aliens whose removal is canceled under section 240A(a) .

(E) Aliens provided permanent resident status under section 249 .

All that is needed is to add Dependents of EB cases to that list.

In fact, this is provided for in Zoe Lofgren's H.R.2161 Bill which says :

(b) Spouses and Minor Children- Section 201(b)(1) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151(b)(1)), as amended by this Act, is further amended by adding at the end the following:

`(G) Aliens who are the spouse or child of an alien admitted as an employment-based immigrant under section 203(b).'.

In case you are wondering, (F) would exempt STEM graduates with a Masters or Higher from designated Institutions as well as Outstanding Professors and Researchers (EB1B).

It is just a matter of who gets counted against the limited numbers.

[Monica12]

come on now...what did the poor H1B holder do to not deserve EAD?
EAD for spouse and not for the primary applicant Can you please point me to source, if you don't mind.

Thanks!

yes, I was thinking the same thing..good point Leo! it doesn't sound fair...

[donvar]

come on now...what did the poor H1B holder do to not deserve EAD?
EAD for spouse and not for the primary applicant Can you please point me to source, if you don't mind.

Thanks!

Ha ha Ha.Poor H1B is a slave :-)

My guess is they are not talking about I485 EAD, they are talking about working authorization (EAD) , something like the spouse of L1B visa holder get. This EAD is not related with GC.
I485 EAD will only be given after filing I485.

[soggadu]

Hmm...now i agree with that spec... thanks for letting me know...it's really great you do so much research before posting...increases the value...

on other note... i am a changed man now....eureka eureka....

[Spectator]

I heard dependents from Diversity lottery are not counted towards the quota.
All controlled movements and restrictive policies are only for EB2 and EB3.

donvar,

Having looked at the yearly statistics, that appears to be a baseless rumour.

FY2010
Principal ----- 27,383
Dependent -- 22,380
Total ------- 49,763

FY2009
Principal ----- 26,243
Dependent -- 21,636
Total ------- 47,879

etc

Source DHS Yearbook 2009 and 2010

[leo07]

That was v.quick and informative.

and...you are from commonwealth

donvar,

Having looked at the yearly statistics, that appears to be a baseless rumour.

FY2010
Principal ----- 27,383
Dependent -- 22,380
Total ------- 49,763

FY2009
Principal ----- 26,243
Dependent -- 21,636
Total ------- 47,879

etc

Source DHS Yearbook 2009 and 2010

[donvar]

donvar,

Having looked at the yearly statistics, that appears to be a baseless rumour.

FY2010
Principal ----- 27,383
Dependent -- 22,380
Total ------- 49,763

FY2009
Principal ----- 26,243
Dependent -- 21,636
Total ------- 47,879

etc

Source DHS Yearbook 2009 and 2010

You are correct. I looked again and got hold of a USCIS briefing.

QUESTION: So on that question – so everyone, including the spouse and children are
included in the 50,000?
MR. WILCOCK: Yes, yes. They’re not over and above the 50,000. The 50,000 is
total diversity visa recipients, be they the principal applicant or the spouse or
children. Yeah.

Source : http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=33266

[rahil1]

Ha ha Ha.Poor H1B is a slave :-)

My guess is they are not talking about I485 EAD, they are talking about working authorization (EAD) , something like the spouse of L1B visa holder get. This EAD is not related with GC.
I485 EAD will only be given after filing I485.

The memo stated that EAD will be given to dependents of primary who has filed 485 but dependents haven't. One case will be primary applying 485 when single and dates retgrogress, when he gets married he is unable to file 485for his wife as priority date is not current. So such dependents will be given EAD

[indiaeb2]

Hello Guys - I just looked at Trackitt and some one with id "skgctrack" who has PD 08 Apr 2007 Eb2I got approved. This is a good news. we are seeing approval right of the bat.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Hello people,

I came across this blog couple of weeks back while searching for some more advanced information regarding priority dates. And I must tell you, I have been following it religiously from that point. In fact, I check this blog every 1-2 hours every day. It is becoming kind of an addiction now. The gurus and many other have been doing an amazing job churning out these difficult calculations and logically predicting the PDs. To be honest, I suck at Math and Statistics. I am a General Internist Physician working in a decent size hospital in a mid-size town and doing these calculations is not my cup of tea. But I truly appreciate the effort from all of you to provide more clarity about the process. Many thanks to those who have become current or have obtained their GCs but still extending their helping hands.

I am also a part of the EB2 mess. The only difference is that my PD is in 2011 unlike some of you have who have their PDs in 2007 and 2008. No hospital files for our green card during our 3 years of post-graduation training (MD) since they know we are going to leave once our training is over. So we always end up wasting 3 years of H1B. Unfortunately, I did my post-graduation from a small community hospital and I don't meet criteria for EB1A or EB1B since I didn't find a good opportunity to do research and publications. My attorney advised me not to file for EB2NIW saying that the applications are complex and it takes a long time these days to approve those applications. Also, there is no significant advantage over regular EB2 either except LC requirement is waived since the PDs are retrogressed.

I don't want to sound too pessimistic in my first post but I believe the waiting times for people in EB2IC remain terrible and will remain terrible (EB3 is out of question obviously with even longer wait times) unless the Congress brings some kind of legislation to recapture the unused visa numbers from previous years, remove the country limit or stop counting dependents on the available visa numbers. Just my 2 cents on this.

Thanks again for all the effort people are putting in. Good luck to those who are waiting to be current and congrats to those who are about to be current and those who have been greened.

Regards.

[ragx08]

Hello people,

There are, in general, two ways to predict the future. For example, you can use horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, crystal ball, and so forth. Collectively, these are known as the “nutty methods.” Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly referred to as “a complete waste of time.” While all these approaches have their advantages, I find it’s a lot easier and economical to simply make stuff up.

Regards.

The later is called 'Nerdy' method :-)! Welcome to the forum!!!

[nishant2200]

From April 15th 2007 to August 15th 2007, how many PWMB are we expecting.

[bieber]

come on now...what did the poor H1B holder do to not deserve EAD?
EAD for spouse and not for the primary applicant Can you please point me to source, if you don't mind.

Thanks!

leo, it's more like some J1 dependent and L1 dependent where spouce of non-imigrant visa holder can work, it's restricted only for h1.
I will try to find source, but it was from Q&A session from CIS

[mesan123]

it does not sound fair....but i feel atleast this law gives little relief(50%) atleast as there spouses can get EAD's and need not go through this H1b tensions....what i mean is they also can work like the L2 visa....that is v good move if this is made....

yes, I was thinking the same thing..good point Leo! it doesn't sound fair...

[Spectator]

From April 15th 2007 to August 15th 2007, how many PWMB are we expecting.

nishant,

Conservatively, I think probably 3.5 to 4k for EB2-IC. I don't expect those to be approved this year, even if the COD moves that far.

Others may disagree.

[rahil1]

leo, it's more like some J1 dependent and L1 dependent where spouce of non-imigrant visa holder can work, it's restricted only for h1.
I will try to find source, but it was from Q&A session from CIS

It is not for all h1bs. It's only for h1b's who filed their aid and dependents didn' t

[mesan123]

Welcome to the form.....well if it helps....my priority date is also in feb 2011...my guess is we can hope our date may be current in next 4-5 years, if get the SOFAD every year...

If some miracle happens and these congressmen do pass the bill... where they will use the unused visa, remove spouses from counting, yes we can be current in 2 years.....

Hello people,

I came across this blog couple of weeks back while searching for some more advanced information regarding priority dates. And I must tell you, I have been following it religiously from that point. In fact, I check this blog every 1-2 hours every day. It is becoming kind of an addiction now. The gurus and many other have been doing an amazing job churning out these difficult calculations and logically predicting the PDs. To be honest, I suck at Math and Statistics. I am a General Internist Physician working in a decent size hospital in a mid-size town and doing these calculations is not my cup of tea. But I truly appreciate the effort from all of you to provide more clarity about the process. Many thanks to those who have become current or have obtained their GCs but still extending their helping hands.

I am also a part of the EB2 mess. The only difference is that my PD is in 2011 unlike some of you have who have their PDs in 2007 and 2008. No hospital files for our green card during our 3 years of post-graduation training (MD) since they know we are going to leave once our training is over. So we always end up wasting 3 years of H1B. Unfortunately, I did my post-graduation from a small community hospital and I don't meet criteria for EB1A or EB1B since I didn't find a good opportunity to do research and publications. My attorney advised me not to file for EB2NIW saying that the applications are complex and it takes a long time these days to approve those applications. Also, there is no significant advantage over regular EB2 either except LC requirement is waived since the PDs are retrogressed.

I don't want to sound too pessimistic in my first post but I believe the waiting times for people in EB2IC remain terrible and will remain terrible (EB3 is out of question obviously with even longer wait times) unless the Congress brings some kind of legislation to recapture the unused visa numbers from previous years, remove the country limit or stop counting dependents on the available visa numbers. Just my 2 cents on this.

Thanks again for all the effort people are putting in. Good luck to those who are waiting to be current and congrats to those who are about to be current and those who have been greened.

Regards.

[nishant2200]

Spec, what is your other opposite end estimate, this time, not conservative.

nishant,

Conservatively, I think probably 3.5 to 4k for EB2-IC. I don't expect those to be approved this year, even if the COD moves that far.

Others may disagree.

[soggadu]

rahil bhai... kaise baatien kartien ho aap... read below...

"The proposed change would allow spouses in H-4 status to apply for employment authorization in a limited circumstance in which the principal H-1B visa holder has started the green card process and has had to extend his or her visa status under specific circumstances."

Most important one is

"The USCIS memo was only a list of administrative proposals that could be used to solve some current immigration problems. It is not possible to say how many of these proposals are being considered, or will ever be implemented."

Is the new EB2 category recently discussed part/becoz of this memo?

waise the real unedited doc is

http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politic...ion-reform.pdf

[bieber]

It is not for all h1bs. It's only for h1b's who filed their aid and dependents didn' t

Yes, I answered leo in response to why not for h1s

Great find Kanmani, very quick

[Spectator]

Spec, what is your other opposite end estimate, this time, not conservative.

As far as I can tell, the theoretical maximum for EB2-IC would be about 6k.

[soggadu]

The H4 EAD memo has the following....Does this mean the rule is approved... What do you guys think????


Ex tend employment authorization to H-4 dependent. Spouses of H-I B pr'incipals where the principals are also applicants for lawful permanent residence under AC 21.

USCIS Senior Leaders have already approved this course of action; it is therefore recommended
in the context of identifying administrative relief options that their decision be communicated to
the Department of Homeland Security and to the White House.

Implementation Method: Notice of Proposed Rule making (NPRM).

Resources/Considerations: Coordinate with DHS Policy and White House prior to rule drafting.
uscis systems (CLAIMS, etc.) will need to be modified 10 accommodate EADs for this group
of H-4s.

Target! Date: Minimum of 12 months to issue final rule.