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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #5351
    There's one possibility which Q has mentioned earlier. About BTM in October. That also removes burden on USCIS to do additional work during the finishing stages of FY 2011.

    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    I hope they can BTM in September, but I doubt it.

    Mr.CO does not want to build a pipeline and he wants to wait for the last minute to do it.

    I will not be surprised if Mr.CO builds the pipeline in the last month.

  2. #5352
    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    I hope they can BTM in September, but I doubt it.

    Mr.CO does not want to build a pipeline and he wants to wait for the last minute to do it.

    I will not be surprised if Mr.CO builds the pipeline in the last month.
    If I'm not wrong the Mr. CO has mentioned that there will be movement once the date reaches Aug. Now the question is when will they reach Aug. Per the current calculations we'll hit June end by Sep 1 and then 1-2 weeks every month. Based on that we should see BTM or STM in first qtr next year.

  3. #5353
    I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

    I also see 1 EB2-C approval in August, but his PD was current as of July Bulletin.

    One EB1-B approval in August, and no EB1-C (our favorite bashing category ) so far.

    slow going so far from trackitt in first two days. although we should of course give people time to update their profiles. also just like last time, they maybe slow to begin, notifications maybe down again, and so on.

    But they are working.

  4. #5354
    Q, any news from your source?

  5. #5355
    Does Q have source from USCIS ?????

    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    Q, any news from your source?

  6. #5356
    No, not from USCIS.

  7. #5357
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

    I also see 1 EB2-C approval in August, but his PD was current as of July Bulletin.

    One EB1-B approval in August, and no EB1-C (our favorite bashing category ) so far.

    slow going so far from trackitt in first two days. although we should of course give people time to update their profiles. also just like last time, they maybe slow to begin, notifications maybe down again, and so on.

    But they are working.
    Usually by the weekend we will see some. Looks like some email batch job which only kicks in during weekend

  8. #5358
    Quote Originally Posted by nnnnn123 View Post
    Does Q have source from USCIS ?????
    Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

  9. #5359
    One guy called USCIS and USCIS said that they are still working on the cases that became current in July. Because the number is huge, so they didn't finish processing yet. Several guys on mitbbs became current in July, but their cases are still pending.



    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

    I also see 1 EB2-C approval in August, but his PD was current as of July Bulletin.

    One EB1-B approval in August, and no EB1-C (our favorite bashing category ) so far.

    slow going so far from trackitt in first two days. although we should of course give people time to update their profiles. also just like last time, they maybe slow to begin, notifications maybe down again, and so on.

    But they are working.

  10. #5360
    Ajmeri Baba??? Lolz...I heard he resolves all life problems within 7 days!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

  11. #5361
    Quote Originally Posted by gchopeful123 View Post
    Ajmeri Baba??? Lolz...I heard he resolves all life problems within 7 days!!!
    Prem Jyotish is another one. I could never figure out if he started off by solving "prem" related problems or that was his name

  12. #5362
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    There's one possibility which Q has mentioned earlier. About BTM in October. That also removes burden on USCIS to do additional work during the finishing stages of FY 2011.
    The problem with that is the potential outstanding cases left after the September VB.

    If the Sept VB moves, say, to the end of June 2007, that leaves around 3.7k pre-adjudicated cases left plus any PWMB that become ready to adjudicate plus porting.

    Moving the COD beyond August 15 2007 for BTM in October 2011, makes all those cases eligible for approval in October itself. That is around 70% of the initial 5,606 allocation to EB2-IC.

    In Q1 only 27% of the overall EB total is available.

    It isn't impossible, but it does have difficulties.

    If the September VB can approach August 15 2007, or even late July 2007 then it becomes very possible. Both China and India have large numbers in July 2007.

    That, at least, is my concern.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  13. #5363
    qbf I was thinking about exactly the same thing yesterday and so I checked trackitt.
    Here are some interesting things I found:

    ~900 YTD approved
    ~900 pending which are current
    ~500 pending from above were last updated prior to April 2011. (i.e. its possible they are already approved but never updated).

    But still that leaves 400 EB2I cases that current as well as updated on trackitt in the last 3 months but are still pending!!!

    In fact this statistics made me seriously think about what Spec suggested - "Was the movement in Jul / Aug BTM"???

    That is too pessimistic a thought for now. I really don't know.


    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    One guy called USCIS and USCIS said that they are still working on the cases that became current in July. Because the number is huge, so they didn't finish processing yet. Several guys on mitbbs became current in July, but their cases are still pending.

    As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  14. #5364
    Shayad wo baba ap to nahi...

    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

  15. #5365
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    qbf I was thinking about exactly the same thing yesterday and so I checked trackitt.
    Here are some interesting things I found:

    ~900 YTD approved
    ~900 pending which are current
    ~500 pending from above were last updated prior to April 2011. (i.e. its possible they are already approved but never updated).

    [B]But still that leaves 400 EB2I cases that current as well as updated on trackitt in the last 3 months but are still pending!!!
    In fact this statistics made me seriously think about what Spec suggested - "Was the movement in Jul / Aug BTM"???
    [/B]
    That is too pessimistic a thought for now. I really don't know.





    As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.
    Man.. that doesn't look good at all...
    Q, hopefully, your source returns soon and can give us more info

  16. #5366
    Spec

    My bad. I didn't realize you were talking about Aug / Sep 2008. I thought you were talking about this Jul/Aug movement. As per 2008 I don't have any comments.

    As per BTM - My "theory" is it should happen early in the year preferably Q1 or latest Q2. If its Q2 or Q3 then it might as well be SFM rather than BTM.
    Thanks for the info on Min Max and Law. So in that case - I do like your suggestion about April May moevment. But then I would be worried about the ability to process intake that late in the year. So I do not know how they will sovle this problem.

    We alread agree in terms of coordination between agencies and the difficulty in maintain sustained slow forward movement.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I do think it was quick and clean. The dates advanced only in August/September 2008 and in October 2008 retrogressed to April 2003.

    The fact that very few later cases appear to have been approved tends to say that FIFO was not disrupted. Rather, it was a ploy to allow filing. Maybe we differ on the definition of quick.

    Really good questions. Answers in reverse order.

    It is the law, as laid down in the INA. INA 201 (a)(2) says:

    It represents a maximum and there is no corresponding minimum that must be allocated. The maximum is calculated on the total EB allocation and does not have to be prorated for individual Categories or Countries.



    I agree. Ultimately, if USCIS request more visas than are available, DOS can stop issuing them. By all accounts, that happened last year in FB and the full quota was exhausted 2 weeks before the end of the FY. You won't find any disagreement from me on this point. I absolutely think they should have BTM in September.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  17. #5367
    I am sorry. Just a thought ... of course based on facts.
    But there are some other good facts that run contrary to these facts. Basically the trackitt approved trend still points to a very favorable result i.e. clearing of all backlog till Jul 8th, 2007. Will post later in the day.

    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    Man.. that doesn't look good at all...
    Q, hopefully, your source returns soon and can give us more info
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  18. #5368
    Sensei familyguy's Avatar
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    Guys, Instead of wondering how the dates will move post July/Aug 2007, is there a way to contact DOS asking them to explain their plans? Couple of days ago I sent an email to visabulletin@state.gov and so far I haven't received any reply yet.. Is there any other way to contact them?

  19. #5369
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.
    Yup, that's me. Looks like I am the first one to be approved in Aug. I finished off half a bottle of Laphroaig yesterday and I am sitting bleary eyed in the office today and hoping nobody notices it :P

  20. #5370
    Quote Originally Posted by nnnnn123 View Post
    Shayad wo baba ap to nahi...
    namakool!!!!!!!...amazon wale amazing baba...iss ko maaf kardo...bacha hein ji...theek se ek alphabet bhi nahi bol saktha... dekho naam mein kitne baar 'n' hein.. ;-) ....

    nnnnnnn bhai... hum woh nahi hein jo aap samaj rahe ho...

  21. #5371
    Quote Originally Posted by victorian View Post
    Yup, that's me. Looks like I am the first one to be approved in Aug. I finished off half a bottle of Laphroaig yesterday and I am sitting bleary eyed in the office today and hoping nobody notices it :P
    So you are the one who is saying YES to all the things in our business conference meeting without even thinking!!!!!!!!!!!!...

    Congratz bhai...
    Last edited by soggadu; 08-03-2011 at 12:43 PM.

  22. #5372
    Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....

    anyway is there a way to change your profile name????

    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    namakool!!!!!!!...amazon wale amazing baba...iss ko maaf kardo...bacha hein ji...theek se ek alphabet bhi nahi bol saktha... dekho naam mein kitne baar 'n' hein.. ;-) ....

    nnnnnnn bhai... hum woh nahi hein jo aap samaj rahe ho...

  23. #5373
    Quote Originally Posted by nnnnn123 View Post
    Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....
    nnnnnn behen... waise hi Sep VB ka itna confusion hai...now all this gender confusion also..

  24. #5374
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    nnnnnn behen... waise hi Sep VB ka itna confusion hai...now all this gender confusion also..
    abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....

  25. #5375
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....
    Buddy, If I get current in September,I will find you and treat you and your wife to martinis and margaritas...
    btw, I'm standing in the September line and waiting for Q's source to give us some good news

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