EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[natvyas]

Your statement cracked me up !!!

Thanks for that.

[skpanda]

Amen..

That will be relief to people who have missed the July 2007 boat by few months and we can get rid of PWMB variable.

It might look silly, but almost 2 weeks ago early in the morning I had a dream, where the Sept VB has a date of Dec 2007. Sorry I didn't dream or I don't remember the exact date.

But, mostly my early morning dreams come true and thought of sharing, but felt like it is silly to share some thing like this.

But, when I see these predictions, my dream is not at all silly and might be true as well.

[familyguy]

Can u dream that dates would move till Jan 15 2008

It might look silly, but almost 2 weeks ago early in the morning I had a dream, where the Sept VB has a date of Dec 2007. Sorry I didn't dream or I don't remember the exact date.

But, mostly my early morning dreams come true and thought of sharing, but felt like it is silly to share some thing like this.

But, when I see these predictions, my dream is not at all silly and might be true as well.

[leo07]

I'm glad we stopped it, I didn't expect it to discuss, just random predictions.

I reality, most of the predictions on the list are backed up by data. Either on this forum or some other forum

you are right... i was about to mention that... this site is more of predictions with backed up numerical calculations...

[TeddyKoochu]

The USCIS FAQ have been updated (LUD 08/02) to include the enterpreneur category. So looks like this has been implemented right away.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

[raj888]

Why isnt anyone talking about BTM anymore? If dates reach July 2007 (in Sep VB), doesnt it mean all backlog will be cleared? I am just wondering when my Sep 24th 2007 date will be eligible. Desperately waiting to apply for EAD.

I agree with the above question...same time last month we all were so much hopeful about BTM and dates moving to Q1/Q2 2008.. I guess a disappointing previous bulletin is leading for people to be more conservative....But the reasons everyone was giving last month for BTM is still valid

[iamdeb]

Hi Gurus,

I have a question regarding the below scenario.
My I 140 is approved and I have stayed for more than 180 days with my employer A( who applied for my current PERM and I140).I get an offer from employer B who agrees to do my GC process. I know Employer B must start from stratch, however I will be able to carry my previous PD to the new GC Process.
In case employer A withdraws my GC application what will happen?Will I lose my PD which I had with employer A?
This is not case of porting but I just want to know if I can switch jobs?
I think AC21 portability applies only when I 485 has been filed.

Sorry for diverting from the topic, but I couldn't keep myself from asking here.

Thanks,
Deb

[qblogfan]

I agree with you completely!

Our pie is already too small. Even with the current level of SOFAD, we still need to wait for years. I can't imagine how bad it can become if they add another group of people into the queue.

We have proposed many things to them including giving people EAD/AP, giving H4 EAD, etc. They didn't give a damn about these proposals. Now they are trying to squeeze more from EB2.

Friends I just went through all the details posted, neospeed thanks for the AILA doc. I agree almost completely with what Spec is saying. This is another classification in EB2, the usage will squarely depend on how the term entrepreneur is defined. If the definition is qualitative that this will increase EB2 usage quite a bit from the non retrogressed countries however if it is something as stringent as the Kazarian memo then they will only a few qualifying applicants. This visa seems to be more of a junior version to EB5; probably they realized that getting top level entrepreneurs and investors is hard so let’s get the next level. With the current situation for I/C the entrepreneurs from these countries are almost implicitly excluded because entrepreneurs do not wait for 5 years to realize their dreams they are impulsive enough to go after them ASAP. The trigger for this category may have been the urgency to create new jobs, most testimonies and articles are skewed to the fact that US is losing out on entrepreneurs more than anything most of us in regular high skilled jobs aka EB2 and EB3 do not figure that prominently so are either more easily dispensable or no real sadness in losing us. Coming to NIW it’s very hard to qualify for this anyway mostly it requires 10 years of work experience and the most common profession if I may say IT is almost excluded from the list. If implemented this will definitely reduce SOFAD (I can understand the concerns that many have expressed) which EB2 I/C have assumed to part of the process so in that respect it definitely does not augur well, I believe we all must accept SOFAD as a privilege than a given and respect it, no one knows how long the current levels can be sustained, this year definitely is the peak or is very close to it. Let’s wait and watch for details

[qblogfan]

[QUOTE=meso129;6130]Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT
meso129--------Mar 1 2008
qblogfan--------April 15, 2008

[qesehmk]

skpanda explained it well. The differnce is with the new option EB3 probably won't need to port at all. They can directly file as EB2 as long as they are otherwise qualified and can stay in the current job.

EB3 already have porting option to move to EB2 category. There is no reason to make thsi option look like a backdoor entry for EB3 alone.

The WSJ article (see Post 5411 by KD2008) and the USCIS FAQ (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36456) is not very clear yet.

But I guess.. reason why this can be a separate channel than porting for EB3 friends is -

An EB3 applicant who qualifies for a EB2 category (Advanced degree/Speciality skills) does not need have an employer file again from scratch in EB2 and use AC21 for porting. They can self petition in EB2-Enterprenuor category.

The FAQs just say that the petition employer should have had a labor approved but does not specify if it has to be in EB2.

It might look silly, but almost 2 weeks ago early in the morning I had a dream, where the Sept VB has a date of Dec 2007. Sorry I didn't dream or I don't remember the exact date.

But, mostly my early morning dreams come true and thought of sharing, but felt like it is silly to share some thing like this.

But, when I see these predictions, my dream is not at all silly and might be true as well.

Nayekal, I am a man of numbers ... but your post is so honest ... I really want to set all my rationality aside and hope that your dream come true!!

I agree with the above question...same time last month we all were so much hopeful about BTM and dates moving to Q1/Q2 2008.. I guess a disappointing previous bulletin is leading for people to be more conservative....But the reasons everyone was giving last month for BTM is still valid

BTM kind of started going off the table AFTER august bullein. See the trouble is .... if DoS sees 3K of demand which is worth of 1.5month for EB2IC then they can carry an entire year on that 3K and not have to move dates at all. Doesn't mean today BTM is completely ruled out. Only that it is not as strong possibility as many of us thought a few months back. Finally regardless where dates move, the dates must reach Q1 2008 by Q1 end of 2012. That is teh only way to ensure DoS has sufficient cases to approve during spillover season of 2012.

[qesehmk]

PD stays but its a new GC application since 485 was not outstanding for 180 days.

Hi Gurus,

I have a question regarding the below scenario.
My I 140 is approved and I have stayed for more than 180 days with my employer A( who applied for my current PERM and I140).I get an offer from employer B who agrees to do my GC process. I know Employer B must start from stratch, however I will be able to carry my previous PD to the new GC Process.
In case employer A withdraws my GC application what will happen?Will I lose my PD which I had with employer A?
This is not case of porting but I just want to know if I can switch jobs?
I think AC21 portability applies only when I 485 has been filed.

Sorry for diverting from the topic, but I couldn't keep myself from asking here.

Thanks,
Deb

[gchopeful123]

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT
meso129--------Mar 1 2008
qblogfan--------April 15, 2008
gchopeful123-------- 1st Oct 2007

[familyguy]

Secretary Napolitano Announces Initiatives to Promote Startup Enterprises and Spur Job Creation

http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/20...itiatives.shtm

[cantwaitlonger]

The changes to the EB2 program feels like this: Its like the doctor is treating you for a common cold when you walk in to the emergency room with a gaping wound to your knee. Meanwhile, the hospital's PR is standing outside and assuring the media that everything is being taken care of.

[ravisekhar]

Secretary Napolitano Announces Initiatives to Promote Startup Enterprises and Spur Job Creation

http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/20...itiatives.shtm

In response to stakeholder feedback, USCIS has also updated existing FAQs to clarify that an H-1B beneficiary who is the sole owner of the petitioning company may establish a valid employer-employee relationship for the purposes of qualifying for an H-1B nonimmigrant visa – which is used by U.S. businesses to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise in specialized fields, such as science, engineering, and computer programming.

[Spectator]

It seems they have now added premium processing for EB1 - 140s - http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD

ssvp22,

Good spot.

I read it in the DHS article familyguy mentioned.

USCIS has also announced the expansion of its Premium Processing Service to immigrant petitions for multinational executives and managers (often referred to as "E13"). The Premium Processing Service allows employers to expedite processing of their petitions, absent evidentiary deficiencies, fraud or national security concerns.

The USCIS page doesn't seem to have been updated yet.

That will be yet another factor that could lead to more EB1 approvals in FY2012, since to date EB1-C, accounting for 50% of EB1 approvals, was not eligible for PP.

[nishant2200]

I guess the second H1 extension for 3 years I got this year, will come good for me after all, reading all the stuff today

[leo07]

Instead of dealing with the problem head-on, this administration is looking to induce steroids so that the employment-numbers look good come election-year. It'll backfire big time.

Because potential fraud over-weighs the benefit at this point. Since there is already a category for the same and genuine people who would have filed in that category would have already filed anyways, but the new folks are those switching from other EB categories trying to look genuine. Which in itself is a recipe for disaster.

[nishant2200]

In response to stakeholder feedback, USCIS has also updated existing FAQs to clarify that an H-1B beneficiary who is the sole owner of the petitioning company may establish a valid employer-employee relationship for the purposes of qualifying for an H-1B nonimmigrant visa – which is used by U.S. businesses to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise in specialized fields, such as science, engineering, and computer programming.

good find ravisekhar

fraud alert bells...ding ding

[bieber]

The unemployment report due this friday must be terrible, it will be atleast or more than 9.2%

high time adminstration to do things that actually work, not the campaign tools/promises. With the exisintg policies current businesses are not hiring and govt welcomes new businesses to create jobs, r u kidding me dear *****

[qblogfan]

These government officials never experienced the pain of EB2/3 CI.

Put them into our situation and let them face ten years of waiting, full of risk and uncertainty.

These people never really cared about us. They just want to work with the employers and get more juice from us.

Enough is enough. Many people have worked for them for a decade. How much more juice do they want from us?

They are supposed to reduce the backlog of CI EB2/3 backlog, but on the contrary, they want to add more people into the pie.

It's shocking to know they want to put this s**t on us again.

Instead of dealing with the problem head-on, this administration is looking to induce steroids so that the employment-numbers look good come election-year. It'll backfire big time.

Because potential fraud over-weighs the benefit at this point. Since there is already a category for the same and genuine people who would have filed in that category would have already filed anyways, but the new folks are those switching from other EB categories trying to look genuine. Which in itself is a recipe for disaster.

[murali83]

My take on this new initiative is not to read too much into it. I mean how many people will really qualify under the broad terms described there is for anyone to guess. IMHO, it is going to be as difficult as a self petition in EB1 category.

[veni001]

My take on this new initiative is not to read too much into it. I mean how many people will really qualify under the broad terms described there is for anyone to guess. IMHO, it is going to be as difficult as a self petition in EB1 category.

murali83,
Agree, in-addition applicant need to prove NIW.

We will get a better picture once guidelines are released by USCIS, till then we are good to go with our predictions.

[mesan123]

Can any guru please tell us, with this new catogery, will visa numbers be allocated from current 140K visa's and is this visa class same as EB2 NIW, who will get first the spill over before EB2???

Will this Even Delay the regular EB2/3 (India & China) catogeries even more..

And also will the people who file in this category will have better luck as there dates will be CURRENT !!!!!!!!!!

murali83,
Agree, in-addition applicant need to prove NIW.

We will get a better picture once guidelines are released by USCIS, till then we are good to go with our predictions.

[nishant2200]

This is my take:

- 140k remains as it is
- I am calling this category EB2-ENT (ent for entrepreneur)
- Since it is still second preference, it is not higher in preference to existing EB2, folks from I/C are still screwed even if they get into this EB2-ENT category, with regards to place in queue.

Can any guru please tell us, with this new catogery, will visa numbers be allocated from current 140K visa's and is this visa class same as EB2 NIW, who will get first the spill over before EB2???

Will this Even Delay the regular EB2/3 (India & China) catogeries even more..

And also will the people who file in this category will have better luck as there dates will be CURRENT !!!!!!!!!!