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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #5226
    I agree with you. I am in pain too. The purpose of GC system is to exploit people and get profit as much as they can. During the GC process, the employers have too much power. Based on the immigration law, we don't have any legal base to interfere the PERM/140 process. They keep people in dark for five or six years. The attorneys want to make more money and collabrate with the employers to manipulate these poor guys. These agencies represent the rich employers and the evil attorneys. They don't care about EB immigrants at all. We are powerless...........

    Quote Originally Posted by gc_usa View Post
    I understand your pain my friend. They are not creating new loophole but they are helping themselves. By doing this EB IC will be stuck forever and more money on EAD / AP and possibly AC21 filling coming next year. Go figure how much this agency going to make from EB IC people.

  2. #5227
    This is the first time I am hearing about this suggestion. I think it will be good if implemented. But there is a possibility that everyone in line for GC goes and buys a home just to get exempt from the quota. It does require to have a good credit history which may eliminate a few people new to the country.

    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    Exempting legal immigrants from quota when they purchase a house is the most creative solution that they can implement, this is not from me, many high profile people already suggested this to the govt

    It won't solve the housing crisis but just acts like cash for clunkers program

  3. #5228
    Quote Originally Posted by familyguy View Post
    Entrepreneur will be working for a U.S. employer who files a petition on the entrepreneur’s behalf
    I am not too sure how an Entrepreneur can work for someone. In that case you just go back to the old employer-employee relationship


    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    I will complete 10 years in the USA this week.
    It is now 11 years for me. To live and survive in this country you need to understand this country. If you want to live here you have to pay the immigrant tax aka slavery till you get the GC. You can watch the movie "Gangs of New York" and you will realize its the same culture over the past 200-300 years.

    Also, everyone needs to look at the bigger picture. Only Entrepreneurs add new jobs to economy. Big cos are always like - hire some, fire some mode. Besides that, no immigrant worth his salt came to US to be a 9-5 DBA or software engineer. If you did, you were mistaken, and hence the resulting exploitation of you and your kids(you start seeing the impact on them by the time they are 5-6 years of age. Trust me on this).

    Besides that, from what i have read, for this Entrepreneur visa, you will have to have a company with a Board of Directors. I suspect each of the Directors will need to be an accredited investor, which is not easy to build. So dont expect that you will be able to qualify by opening a body shopping firm or EB3 folks will use it to jump the ship. INS is not that naive.
    Last edited by ssvp22; 08-02-2011 at 11:32 AM.

  4. #5229
    Quote Originally Posted by ssvp22 View Post
    I am not too sure how an Entrepreneur can work for someone. In that you just go back to the old employer-employee relationship



    It is now 11 years for me. To live and survive in this country you need to understand this country. If you want to live here you have to pay the immigrant tax aka slavery till you get the GC. You can watch the movie "Gangs of New York" and you will realize its the same culture over the past 200-300 years.

    Also, everyone needs to look at the bigger picture. Only Entrepreneurs add new jobs to economy. Big cos are always like - hire some, fire some mode. Besides that, no immigrant worth his salt came to US to be a 9-5 DBA or software engineer. If you did, you were mistaken, and hence the resulting exploitation of you and your kids(you start seeing the impact on them by the time they are 5-6 years of age. Trust me on this).

    Besides that, from what i have read, for this Entrepreneur visa, you will have to have a company with a Board of Directors. I suspect each of the Directors will need to be an accredited investor, which is not easy to build. So dont expect that you will be able to qualify by opening a body shopping firm or EB3 folks will use it to jump the ship. INS is not that naive.
    good points. but would like to mention that body shopping firms are not that naive either, don't underestimate them

  5. #5230
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    good points. but would like to mention that body shopping firms are not that naive either, don't underestimate them
    Yeah till the time you find them chaaki peesing in Tihar Jail or something similar in US. Anyhow, all i want to say is, look at the positives of the change. There will always be people who abuse laws, but that does not mean change should not happen. Its akin to saying of NJ gov - lets not repair the highways since it going to break anyway next year after snow season.
    Last edited by ssvp22; 08-02-2011 at 11:39 AM.

  6. #5231
    I echo every single word you say here... For a casual person, this movie is a great window into the history of rivalry between different immigrant groups.

    Quote Originally Posted by ssvp22 View Post
    ...To live and survive in this country you need to understand this country. If you want to live here you have to pay the immigrant tax aka slavery till you get the GC. You can watch the movie "Gangs of New York" and you will realize its the same culture over the past 200-300 years.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  7. #5232
    Now only if some new data comes in, we can get back to numbers and predictions

    really looking fwd to the demand data release and later on down the line, the pending I-485 report

  8. #5233
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    As we are approaching the day for the Sep bulletin (maybe it will be a week from today) where the consensus lies on the most expected PD for EB2-I/C? I think Teddy is predicting another 2K - 3K spillover which will move the dates to May-June'07 time frame and Q is a bit optimistic (another 5K+ spillover) & expects the dates to move to July'07. Any feedback from Q's source or any input from CO in the Chinese immigration website yet?

  9. #5234
    There is a blog of a person called CM USA non immigrant blog , and last time when everyone was expecting huge movement, he had put a comment, in which he said, he has a source in a law firm, who told him that movement will be small, because USCIS is concerned of the backlog in EB1 and EB2 ROW (his words were reduction in demand in these categories). And that turned out to be true, small movement. Now many things over there looks like he may actually be copying over from Q's blog, or maybe both are quite accurate on similar crunching, but he also caters to all other non -immigrant related categories and visas. Take this on your own merit. This time he is saying below:

    "So here is the update from my friend at the law firm. This is what they expect in September bulletin and Q1 of FY 2011. I am just posting the facts he quoted. How accurate it is unknown to me like everyone here who is speculating some good movement for next visa bulletin.

    1) There is decent increase in the I-485 filings for EB1 in last two months. On average EB1 approvals are not that high but are coming regularly. They are hoping for some increase in approvals in last two months.

    2) EB2 filings are still at same level like previous few months. No surge in EB2 approvals. Trend in approval is shifting more downwards compared to last few months.

    3) They have filed lot of I-485 cases for EB2-IC since May 2011. These are mostly those who did not file in July 2007 (primary + dependent) and only for dependents of primary applicants who filed in July 2007. The firm alone has filed around 250-300 such applications For May-July VB.

    4) They at the firm believe movement for September 2011 VB will be equivalent to last month’s VB. They believe dates will just cross PD May 2007.

    5) After September 2011 VB, dates will keep on moving by one week until Q1 of FY 2012 and then stall until May 2012.

    6) They believe that EB3-ROW-M-P and EB3-I will move more than usual in Sep VB. (I am very surprised at this statement. This is only possible if some visa numbers are left from annual quota for each category)

    CM – This is update from our friend. My take for EB2-IC is still at 15 June 2007 for September VB"
    Last edited by nishant2200; 08-02-2011 at 12:09 PM.

  10. #5235
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    There is a blog of a person called CM USA non immigrant blog , and last time when everyone was expecting huge movement, he had put a comment, in which he said, he has a source in a law firm, who told him that movement will be small, because USCIS is concerned of the backlog in EB1 and EB2 ROW (his words were reduction in demand in these categories). And that turned out to be true, small movement. Now many things over there looks like he may actually be copying over from Q's blog, or maybe both are quite accurate on similar crunching, but he also caters to all other non -immigrant related categories and visas. Take this on your own merit. This time he is saying below:

    "So here is the update from my friend at the law firm. This is what they expect in September bulletin and Q1 of FY 2011. I am just posting the facts he quoted. How accurate it is unknown to me like everyone here who is speculating some good movement for next visa bulletin.

    1) There is decent increase in the I-485 filings for EB1 in last two months. On average EB1 approvals are not that high but are coming regularly. They are hoping for some increase in approvals in last two months.

    2) EB2 filings are still at same level like previous few months. No surge in EB2 approvals. Trend in approval is shifting more downwards compared to last few months.

    3) They have filed lot of I-485 cases for EB2-IC since May 2011. These are mostly those who did not file in July 2007 (primary + dependent) and only for dependents of primary applicants who filed in July 2007. The firm alone has filed around 250-300 such applications For May-July VB.

    4) They at the firm believe movement for September 2011 VB will be equivalent to last month’s VB. They believe dates will just cross PD May 2007.

    5) After September 2011 VB, dates will keep on moving by one week until Q1 of FY 2012 and then stall until May 2012.

    6) They believe that EB3-ROW-M-P and EB3-I will move more than usual in Sep VB. (I am very surprised at this statement. This is only possible if some visa numbers are left from annual quota for each category)

    CM – This is update from our friend. My take for EB2-IC is still at 15 June 2007 for September VB"

    fifth point doesn't sound realistic. But heard the same in some other forum.

  11. #5236
    Thanks Nishanth!

    It more or less resonates with the analysis and predictions of many in this forum. Can you post the link to the blog? ( I think I may know it already, just want to confirm)

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    There is a blog of a person called CM USA non immigrant blog , and last time when everyone was expecting huge movement, he had put a comment, in which he said, he has a source in a law firm, who told him that movement will be small, because USCIS is concerned of the backlog in EB1 and EB2 ROW (his words were reduction in demand in these categories). And that turned out to be true, small movement. Now many things over there looks like he may actually be copying over from Q's blog, or maybe both are quite accurate on similar crunching, but he also caters to all other non -immigrant related categories and visas. Take this on your own merit. This time he is saying below:

    "So here is the update from my friend at the law firm. This is what they expect in September bulletin and Q1 of FY 2011. I am just posting the facts he quoted. How accurate it is unknown to me like everyone here who is speculating some good movement for next visa bulletin.

    1) There is decent increase in the I-485 filings for EB1 in last two months. On average EB1 approvals are not that high but are coming regularly. They are hoping for some increase in approvals in last two months.

    2) EB2 filings are still at same level like previous few months. No surge in EB2 approvals. Trend in approval is shifting more downwards compared to last few months.

    3) They have filed lot of I-485 cases for EB2-IC since May 2011. These are mostly those who did not file in July 2007 (primary + dependent) and only for dependents of primary applicants who filed in July 2007. The firm alone has filed around 250-300 such applications For May-July VB.

    4) They at the firm believe movement for September 2011 VB will be equivalent to last month’s VB. They believe dates will just cross PD May 2007.

    5) After September 2011 VB, dates will keep on moving by one week until Q1 of FY 2012 and then stall until May 2012.

    6) They believe that EB3-ROW-M-P and EB3-I will move more than usual in Sep VB. (I am very surprised at this statement. This is only possible if some visa numbers are left from annual quota for each category)

    CM – This is update from our friend. My take for EB2-IC is still at 15 June 2007 for September VB"

  12. #5237
    This is where the advocacy dollars should help. If we are not capable of getting any legislative help, we must at the least be able to defend existing position through advocacy.
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I echo every single word you say here... For a casual person, this movie is a great window into the history of rivalry between different immigrant groups.

  13. #5238
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Thanks Nishanth!

    It more or less resonates with the analysis and predictions of many in this forum. Can you post the link to the blog? ( I think I may know it already, just want to confirm)
    Welcome Leo.

    I was not sure if I should quote the link that is why tried to describe the source so that google search may provide it.

    I am putting the link, admins, please remove if should not be pasted.

    http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...roval-and.html

    see in the comments section.

  14. #5239

  15. #5240
    Nishant2200

    Amen brother...Well said .I too like the peaceful atmosphere of this forum and helping nature of the members.Some truths however need to be spoken loud and clear. Fleecing people in the name of consultancies is not entrepreneurship ,it is called gamemanship and gaming the system using each and every loophole possible.

    I can go on a rant about buying pre certified labours ( pre 2006) to current day fake resumes , fake experiences and multiple PERM posting using different consultants.Anywaz it will only make my BP shoot through the roof.

    I too wish this does not pass.



    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Q, perhaps I should have elaborated more.

    They already have EB5, as well as EB2 NIW. So this additional program is certainly planning to carve out a new category in EB2, without any increase in existing 140k allocation.

    I am the sole earner, in a family of five, supporting parents in India, and wife and young child here. I will complete 10 years in the USA this week. I am certainly not lion hearted enough to be happy with the above proposal. I want the stability and peace of mind for my family.

    Another thing, we talk about entrepreneurs here. There is going to be fraud. I personally know one Indian, who on H1B itself, had opened a consulting company, with the usual training, fake interviews, falsifying resumes, taking advantage of students needing a job, or people back home in country who want to come here, has rented apartments with 4 people in one room, and the day he got green card, he plans to leave his job with employer and totally focus on his "entrepreneurship". Last weekend I was in a friend's place and this guy was there, and he was casually joking how stupid the entire system is, and how he makes exorbitant billing rates. Many other topics were talked about which I will not digress here but you get the idea.

    This is just an example which I know, there would be many such from various cultures and countries we don't know of. I am personally not vilifying anyone here, not vilifying any job here, it is what it is, I am not here to do advocacy or say what is fraud. Whatever law didn't catch, that's legal, who am I to say it's wrong.

    I think that existing EB2 NIW, and EB5 are enough, and they should focus on streamlining them, rather than creating one more potential loop hole.
    Last edited by gcseeker; 08-02-2011 at 12:59 PM. Reason: grammar

  16. #5241
    yes, it's the same blog that we have discussed before on first 10-15 pages of the same thread. The link was quoted before, and it's become much popular since. IMO, we must acknowledge the source and that's what you've done and nothing wrong with it

    PS: At first I misread "15 June 2007 for September VB" as your position. Wanted to ask you what made you upgrade from last week's "final". But, now that I see you are still on your 'final position', there's no need for more questions

  17. #5242
    Q

    This is what motivates me to read your forum.The large hearted nature of this group. I have personally volunteered for Udavum karangal in the past and they do amazing work. All of the money contributions and tax stuff is documented on their site and anybody who is interested can definetly see for themselves.

    Also they often conduct cultural programs in various cities and they often need volunteers on the weekends. These shows have tickets which do generate a fair amount of money which is spent 100% on the schools they run and other activities.I hope some of the members will check out sulekha or local websites and will find time in the future to volunteer with them.



    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Friends,

    This month we made yet another small donation. ($85 Sankara Netralaya). This will cover one free cataract surgery for a needy person.

    Some of the site users asked us if THIS SITE needed donations. Forunately we don't. But if you want to donate, then please donate to our Charity of the Month.

    You can find individual credits listed at the top of the donations thread.

    p.s. - Also for next month we have two suggestions so far. 1) Hrudaya 2) Udavum Karangal (Helping Hands). We can select one of these as our Charity of Month for next month (or any other if there are more suggestions). So please feel free to add more suggestions to the different thread - as long as the charity has a registered US based non-profit front to accept donations in US. I will add a poll to select one of these charities after 10th of this month.

  18. #5243
    Yes, I am still sticking to 1st June 2007

    Man I wish I was born earlier, (all laws of physics not holding same, else bieber had a valid point, it wouldn't make a difference then )

    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    yes, it's the same blog that we have discussed before on first 10-15 pages of the same thread. The link was quoted before, and it's become much popular since. IMO, we must acknowledge the source and that's what you've done and nothing wrong with it

    PS: At first I misread "15 June 2007 for September VB" as your position. Wanted to ask you what made you upgrade from last week's "final". But, now that I see you are still on your 'final position', there's no need for more questions

  19. #5244

    awesome forum

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Yes, I am still sticking to 1st June 2007

    Man I wish I was born earlier, (all laws of physics not holding same, else bieber had a valid point, it wouldn't make a difference then )
    One thing that I find amazing abt this forum is taht everything one is so nice. No name calling .. no ranting... and last but not the least great calculations and predictions
    Last edited by rahil1; 08-02-2011 at 01:10 PM. Reason: ddd

  20. #5245
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Yes, I am still sticking to 1st June 2007

    Man I wish I was born earlier, (all laws of physics not holding same, else bieber had a valid point, it wouldn't make a difference then )
    arey...if u were born earlier...it would have been a longer wait N bhai...

  21. #5246
    Generally people are of helping nature. Its the environment that makes good or bad things come out. So that's why we need to maitain the right spirit on this forum.
    As per helping hands ... thanks for the info. Soggadu also suggested the same charity I believe.

    Quote Originally Posted by gcseeker View Post
    Q

    This is what motivates me to read your forum.The large hearted nature of this group. I have personally volunteered for Udavum karangal in the past and they do amazing work. All of the money contributions and tax stuff is documented on their site and anybody who is interested can definetly see for themselves.

    Also they often conduct cultural programs in various cities and they often need volunteers on the weekends. These shows have tickets which do generate a fair amount of money which is spent 100% on the schools they run and other activities.I hope some of the members will check out sulekha or local websites and will find time in the future to volunteer with them.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  22. #5247
    Let's list everyone's prediction for Sept VB and let us all give a * for the winner

    Nishanth-------1st June 2007
    TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
    Qesehmk--------July 1st
    Spec------------?
    Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
    CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.

    any one else to add their names to the list of predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Yes, I am still sticking to 1st June 2007

    Man I wish I was born earlier, (all laws of physics not holding same, else bieber had a valid point, it wouldn't make a difference then )

  23. #5248
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Let's list everyone's prediction for Sept VB and let us all give a * for the winner

    Nishanth-------1st June 2007
    TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
    Qesehmk--------July 1st
    Spec------------?
    Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
    CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
    Rahil----------08 May 2007

    any one else to add their names to the list of predictions?
    Nishanth-------1st June 2007
    TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
    Qesehmk--------July 1st
    Spec------------?
    Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
    CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
    Rahil----------08 June 2007

  24. #5249
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Let's list everyone's prediction for Sept VB and let us all give a * for the winner

    Nishanth-------1st June 2007
    TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
    Qesehmk--------July 1st
    Spec------------?
    Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
    CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.

    any one else to add their names to the list of predictions?
    I think Q prediction was July 1st week, July 8th ?

  25. #5250
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Nishanth-------1st June 2007
    TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
    Qesehmk--------July 1st
    Spec------------22nd May to 22nd June 2007 (I hope i.e. 2-4k for September VB)
    Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
    CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
    Rahil----------08 June 2007
    Last edited by Spectator; 08-08-2011 at 11:38 AM.
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