EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[nuvikas]

I second that. It would really be helpful.

Q,Teddy and other expert number crunchers,

Can we have an optimistic, pessimistic and most likely dates for EB2I/C in Jul-Sep 2011 based on the latest facts?

[bieber]

Q, T, S great discussion

I think Eb1-C is one category that can be traced on Trackitt very well, and there is evidence for decline. 25% decline as suggested by Teddy and Spec appears to be reasonable, I'm no where near to u guys in understanding all the details and I know I tend to believe more SOFAD logic whatever it is

Teddy, if you don't consider the 25% decline and assume cancelling EB1 spill, how ur low end estimate of 27k will change?

quizzer and nuvikas, 15k-35k is Q's broad range and 22-26k as possible, Jan inventory shows the backlog 34.5k,

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, T, S great discussion

I think Eb1-C is one category that can be traced on Trackitt very well, and there is evidence for decline. 25% decline as suggested by Teddy and Spec appears to be reasonable, I'm no where near to u guys in understanding all the details and I know I tend to believe more SOFAD logic whatever it is

Teddy, if you don't consider the 25% decline and assume cancelling EB1 spill, how ur low end estimate of 27k will change?

quizzer and nuvikas, 15k-35k is Q's broad range and 22-26k as possible, Jan inventory shows the backlog 34.5k,

25% Decline in EB1 means 25/100 * 40K = 10K extra SOFAD. I had actually used the 25% decline and this gives us ~ 35K SOFAD which will put the date at ~ 01-MAY-2007, the news of the perm acceleration came after that.

[TeddyKoochu]

I second that. It would really be helpful.

Q,Teddy and other expert number crunchers,

Can we have an optimistic, pessimistic and most likely dates for EB2I/C in Jul-Sep 2011 based on the latest facts?

Friends I would believe that the conservative SOFAD will be ~ 28K and the date will be in Jan 2007. However many other folks have much lower estimates.

[qesehmk]

Sure. I can do my own and post in header.

Teddy , Spec I think may be I can create a section in the header where I can describe yours too. Just let me know what I can put in there in your name.

Or if you can edit the first post then by all means please do so.

Q,Teddy and other expert number crunchers,

Can we have an optimistic, pessimistic and most likely dates for EB2I/C in Jul-Sep 2011 based on the latest facts?

I second that. It would really be helpful.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q I have an idea lemme know if its feasible. Maybe at the end of your projections you can have a placeholder / table which says projects by
Handle Post Nbr
Teddy XX
Spec YY

This way all will be represented including myself and Spec because there are several contributors to name a few veni, kd2008, bieber. The Post # is unique and each one of us can keep editing that or if we like to create a new post the we let you know the new post #. This way you will have the first post and all of us will have our unique reference. Maybe on the table on post # 1 we should also have a column which says expected date in Sep 2011 we should stick to 1 likely date rather than a range as that is what most people like to know / hear. I will cleanup my projections by the weekend as by that time we will have concrete data for 4 months.

[bieber]

Friends I would believe that the conservative SOFAD will be ~ 28K and the date will be in Jan 2007. However many other folks have much lower estimates.

Teddy, if you have 28K the date should be in Mar/Apr 2007.

20130 to clear 2006
22324 to clear 2007 Jan
24383 to clear 2007 Feb
26469 to clear 2007 Mar
28498 to clear 2007 Apr
30087 to clear 2007 May
31917 to clear 2007 June
35378 to clear 2007 July

[bieber]

25% Decline in EB1 means 25/100 * 40K = 10K extra SOFAD. I had actually used the 25% decline and this gives us ~ 35K SOFAD which will put the date at ~ 01-MAY-2007, the news of the perm acceleration came after that.

Q, thx for explaining that again

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, if you have 28K the date should be in Mar/Apr 2007.

20130 to clear 2006
22324 to clear 2007 Jan
24383 to clear 2007 Feb
26469 to clear 2007 Mar
28498 to clear 2007 Apr
30087 to clear 2007 May
31917 to clear 2007 June
35378 to clear 2007 July

Bieber I use the following table now. The offset factor includes PD porting as 6k-1.5K (As 1.5K porting should be in the inventory) also 1/4th of I/C cap is consumed. 28K will help us to barely clear 2010 and with say 15 days buffer we will be in Jan 2007. Offset also includes older cases that are current.

Month-Year India China PWMB CP "Total
Monthly" "Cumlative
Sum
"
Offset 8000 1000 0 0 9000 9000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 10348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 12785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 15110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 17680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 20398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 23077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 25681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 28632
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 31126
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 33485
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 35871
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 38200
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 40389
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 43319
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 48880

[bieber]

Teddy

that was very detailed, thanks for posting the table

[parsvnath]

Q, Spec and Teddy,

I think we are underestimating the mag of EB3 to EB2 porting (6000). My company (which I am not stating due to privacy reasons with about 2000 people) recently had a policy change to allow EB3 to EB2 porting due to retention issues. About 50 people from my company (who are EB3) are now eligible to convert into EB2 and they have initiated the labor cert for those people. I think EB3 to EB2 conversion should be atleast 20000 people. I arrived the figure of 20000 based on companies similar to mine and having an extrapolation factor. I am in ATL and already know 3 consulting companies who are converting people due to retention issues.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Terrific idea. I love it. Lets do it. One and all send me your predictions in following format.

Handle, EB1 SOFAD, EB2 ROW SOFAD, EB5 SOFAD, Total SOFAD, Low End of SOFAD, High End of SOFAD, OPTIONAL BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF YOUR PREDICTION.

I will start including it in teh header of teh thread. And tehn if you want to change it .... just let me know.

Q I have an idea lemme know if its feasible. Maybe at the end of your projections you can have a placeholder / table which says projects by
Handle Post Nbr
Teddy XX
Spec YY

This way all will be represented including myself and Spec because there are several contributors to name a few veni, kd2008, bieber. The Post # is unique and each one of us can keep editing that or if we like to create a new post the we let you know the new post #. This way you will have the first post and all of us will have our unique reference. Maybe on the table on post # 1 we should also have a column which says expected date in Sep 2011 we should stick to 1 likely date rather than a range as that is what most people like to know / hear. I will cleanup my projections by the weekend as by that time we will have concrete data for 4 months.

Q, Spec and Teddy,

I think we are underestimating the mag of EB3 to EB2 porting (6000). My company (which I am not stating due to privacy reasons with about 2000 people) recently had a policy change to allow EB3 to EB2 porting due to retention issues. About 50 people from my company (who are EB3) are now eligible to convert into EB2 and they have initiated the labor cert for those people. I think EB3 to EB2 conversion should be atleast 20000 people. I arrived the figure of 20000 based on companies similar to mine and having an extrapolation factor. I am in ATL and already know 3 consulting companies who are converting people due to retention issues.

Thanks!

PN, Thanks. Very useful information. I wouldn't blame EB3 folks for doing so.

[pch053]

My feeling is that if many of the EB3 -> EB2 porting are in the stage of initiating the PERM Labor certification, then the # of EB3->EB2 porting cases will affect the movement of EB2 more in the coming years (i.e. 2012 and onwards). This is also a very basic question I am clarifying: if a EB3 person has got his/her I140 approved, then the person will be counted in the pending cases under EB2 category, right? Does the pending EB numbers from Jan'11 provide any information on how many cases have been ported from EB3 -> EB2 between Oct'10 and Jan'11, i.e. if we compare the pending EB2/EB3 inventory during this time.

Thanks!

[Spectator]

My feeling is that if many of the EB3 -> EB2 porting are in the stage of initiating the PERM Labor certification, then the # of EB3->EB2 porting cases will affect the movement of EB2 more in the coming years (i.e. 2012 and onwards). This is also a very basic question I am clarifying: if a EB3 person has got his/her I140 approved, then the person will be counted in the pending cases under EB2 category, right? Does the pending EB numbers from Jan'11 provide any information on how many cases have been ported from EB3 -> EB2 between Oct'10 and Jan'11, i.e. if we compare the pending EB2/EB3 inventory during this time.

Thanks!

pch053,

You ask good questions.

I can only give my personal opinion about this.

For Porting, as far as USCIS is aware, there is only a new I-140, which is obviously not part of the Inventory.

The I-485, which is, is already on the Inventory under EB3. That will only get changed at the point that the new I-140 is linked to the existing I-485 and the case is approved. In this case, the I-485 is never shown as part of the EB2 USCIS Inventory.

There is different argument as to whether USCIS are properly removing the Porting case from the EB3 Inventory figures.

Certainly, there was no evidence of Porting cases within the EB2 USCIS Inventory last year.

I think it is now impossible to analyze the Inventory in this way, even if they were added. Since the Inventory now includes pre-adjudicated cases from Local Offices, it would be impossible to tell whether the addition was due to a Porting or LO case.

Anyway, as I said, I don't think the Porting case will ever show up on the EB2 Inventory numbers.

I hope that makes sense.

[veni001]

Q, Spec and Teddy,

I think we are underestimating the mag of EB3 to EB2 porting (6000). My company (which I am not stating due to privacy reasons with about 2000 people) recently had a policy change to allow EB3 to EB2 porting due to retention issues. About 50 people from my company (who are EB3) are now eligible to convert into EB2 and they have initiated the labor cert for those people. I think EB3 to EB2 conversion should be atleast 20000 people. I arrived the figure of 20000 based on companies similar to mine and having an extrapolation factor. I am in ATL and already know 3 consulting companies who are converting people due to retention issues.

Thanks!

This number is very high, and also remember it's not a cake walk to get PERM and i140 approval for EB2, especially in the IT consulting sector!

At least i140 stage USCIS is very stringent on Job necessity and Ability to Pay, i would stick with Teddy's estimate, unless we see big surge in i140 receipts/completions from USCIS dashboard in the next 3-4 months.

As a side note, if i140 trending remain constant for FY 2011 and assume more EB3-->EB2 conversion means, less EB1/EB2 ROW applications!

[veni001]

pch053,

You ask good questions.
................
Certainly, there was no evidence of Porting cases within the EB2 USCIS Inventory last year.
................

I hope that makes sense.

Spec,
I think this number is about 4K for India

12-11-2009 Inventory EB2I - 40,022
10-01-2010 Inventory EB2I - 24,254
-------------------------------------
Net Reduction - 15,678
=============================
Total EB2I approvals for FY 2010 - 19,961
Difference - 4,193
------------------------------------

[qesehmk]

Veni

That's a good way to figure it out. Agree. What's interesting is .... then EB3I needs to be reduced by 4K plus its own quota 3K. Did EB3I reduce by that much? That will seal this as far as EB2I is concerned.

Spec,
I think this number is about 4K for India

12-11-2009 Inventory EB2I - 40,022
10-01-2010 Inventory EB2I - 24,254
-------------------------------------
Net Reduction - 15,678
=============================
Total EB2I approvals for FY 2010 - 19,961
Difference - 4,193
------------------------------------

[Spectator]

Veni,

I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say - that's my bad, not yours.

I was saying that Porting cases are not shown DIRECTLY as part of the USCIS Inventory.

As you have shown, their presence can be inferred from the actual approvals and Inventory movement.

Using a slightly modified version of your calculation, which includes allowances for some additional factors, I came to a figure of 3,379.

I've probably posted it at some point, but I can't honestly remember.

[pch053]

I also remember a similar calculation in trackitt where the EB3 -> EB2 porting was estimated around 3,000 or so for the last year (i.e. up to Sep'10). I think this year we still don't yet have solid numbers to back up any claim for EB3 -> EB2 estimation. I have seen threads in trackitt where people's estimates have varied from as low as 500 to as high as 25,000. Without any further evidence, probably a number of around 6,000 (as mentioned in one of the earlier post) might be a reasonable choice to consider.

On a related issue (mentioned in details in the earlier posts), the # of EB1 approvals in trackitt is also a lot lower this year. I remember one thread in trackitt where people had differeing opinions on the reason for this. One group of people said that there are fewer EB1 visas that are getting approved. The other line of thought was that since EB1C folks have got hammered in trackiit in several threads, they don't post their case details in trackitt. With EB1C contributing to the lions share of EB1 approval the overall EB1 numbers have dropped (on this note, I noticed the numbers to be low in EB1A and EB1B too). Some people are also of the opinion that the # of trackitt cases in EB1 category is too small a sample to make any prediction/data extrapolation. Not sure, which one is true but we probably again don't have sufficient data to validate or refute any of the claims.

[veni001]

Veni,
.......
I was saying that Porting cases are not shown DIRECTLY as part of the USCIS Inventory.
.........

Spec,
I agree with you.

[veni001]

Veni

That's a good way to figure it out. Agree. What's interesting is .... then EB3I needs to be reduced by 4K plus its own quota 3K. Did EB3I reduce by that much? That will seal this as far as EB2I is concerned.

Q,
You are absolutely correct, Inventory figures show only 4,234 EB3I reduction for the same period, this could be largely due to new 245(i) cases being added in this period?

[Spectator]

Veni

That's a good way to figure it out. Agree. What's interesting is .... then EB3I needs to be reduced by 4K plus its own quota 3K. Did EB3I reduce by that much? That will seal this as far as EB2I is concerned.

Q, veni,

I did the calculation for EB3-I in the same way as I did for EB2-I.

EB3-I shows a reduction in FY2010 of 5,854 versus actual approvals of 3,036.

That gives an unexplained reduction of 2,818.

Given there are other factors in both calculations, (2,818) for EB3 versus 3,377 for EB2-I is not that dissimilar. If we average it out, we get a figure of 3,098.

I think we can say with some confidence that the Porting figure for FY2010 lies between 3k and 4k

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec & Veni.

Makes sense. So if EB3I has 3K conversion then I would imagine ROW and EB3C will have at least 3K - which should then equal to 6K. Again .... not a pretty picture. But not too bad.

p.s. EB3C is calculatable (if there is such a word!) but EB3ROW is not because its dates are moving a bit faster and is capable of adding PWMBs. Right?

Q, veni,

I did the calculation for EB3-I in the same way as I did for EB2-I.

EB3-I shows a reduction in FY2010 of 5,693 versus actual approvals of 3,036.

That gives an unexplained reduction of 2,657.

Given there are other factors in both calculations, (2,657) for EB3 versus 3,379 for EB2-I is not that dissimilar. If we average it out, we get a figure of 3,018.

[punjabi]

Spec

I know I would frighten anybody. And let me explain why this changed so much from what we have been discussing.

But before that .... quickly speaking .... keep EB3 out of this. Since this thread is EB2 .... I didn't calculate EB3 (which involves some finetuning between other workers and rest of EB3). So EB3 numbers are not solid. However they don't impact EB2. So we are good on this forum. I will separately update EB3 thread and then update EB3 here too.

Coming back to what changed:

1) EB2 ROW
Our discussions were always around ROW-EB2. So nothing really changed there other than I calculated PURE EB2-ROW NEW demand (lets say X) as follows:
... X = 2010 Actual Approvals - Dec 09 Inv + Oct 10 Inv
This "NEW DEMAND" indicates how many new 485s were filed in that year.
For 2010 this number came in as 27336 (ROW), 1095 (Mexico), 3477 (Philipines) = 31.9K

Incidently this exactly correlates to the I-140 approved last year for ROW-MP EB2. Which means that all of those 140s were traslated to 485 being filed (which again makes sense since ROW continues to be current.

Now if we assume that in 2011 the demand will be 3/4th of this number = 24K ; then thats what my new model assumes. So no surprises there.

2) EB1
However, we had never discussed calculating EB1 demand for 2011.
Now before we do that we at least need to understand the 2010 PURE NEW demand for EB1. Using same formula as above... that comes to 45.7K.
This begs the question is there any reason why in 2010 EB1 will see unusual demand. I do not have any reason here. And so we have no option but assuming that in 2011 we will continue to see similar levels.

3) The role of Backlog

Our discussions never explicitely discussed relatively higher level of EB1 and EB2-ROW backlog at the end of Sep 2010. This is a fact that the backlog is higher in both categories compared to Dec 09 levels. So the question is even if there is SOFAD in 2011, will USCIS choose to clear this backlog or will USCIS choose to pass it on to EB2.

I as always take conservative approach in assuming that the former will happen.


So that's the rationale so far. Pls feel free to point out any errors / improvements. On this one I will be really happy to be proven wrong since like you I too have a personal stake in it !!!

Hi qesehmrk
I am following you blog 1st on immigrationvoice website since it started & now on your own blog. You have been always a nice positive ray of hope or fresh breeze of air if If I may say. Please dont lose that image by painting such a bad scenario for lots of your fans. At the max you might be wrong ...so who cares!!!!!!!!!!!!! But please don"t fall in trap of all those negative people who are stating again & again that there is no future for Eb2 since this blog started ( remember when you stated first time that Eb2would be cleared in 2-3 years without a so called dream bill ..they were all jumping on your throat)..Fact is that Eb2 has seen a movement of almost 2 years since we started to discuss it so it can't be any different this year..
best regards

[veni001]

Thanks Spec & Veni.

Makes sense. So if EB3I has 3K conversion then I would imagine ROW and EB3C will have at least 3K - which should then equal to 6K. Again .... not a pretty picture. But not too bad.

p.s. EB3C is calculatable (if there is such a word!) but EB3ROW is not because its dates are moving a bit faster and is capable of adding PWMBs. Right?

Q,Spec,
Agreed, EB2ROW/C might have 3K porting, this brings us to the point to conclude that 1/2 of the i140 completions for FY 2010 are EB1/EB2ROW