EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Woooowww...so it is really true that only 8.7K 140's approved till July 2011 for this FY...that might be around 17.5K total 485's...i.e. 22.5K spilover... even new 140 applications come after July 20 2011, they will take 4 months to process, so no more real demand.... What do you guys think???

Neo...thanks for the info...

soggadu,
Don't forget to add 7.6k EB1-485 pending as of 10-01-2010.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
Don't forget to add 7.6k EB1-485 pending as of 10-01-2011.

shouldn't that number be equal to this year waiting 485's for next year... i mean think about it... we can't really count all the 485's to be worked this year itself right...just like last year...what do u say...

What i meant is, there might b aprox 5K numbers which would be counted as FY 2012 from this year...

[veni001]

shouldn't that number be equal to this year waiting 485's for next year... i mean think about it... we can't really count all the 485's to be worked this year itself right...just like last year...what do u say...

What i meant is, there might b aprox 5K numbers which would be counted as FY 2012 from this year...

soggadu,
You can not double-dip by not counting EB1-140 approvals for the last 10 weeks of FY2011 and at the same time assuming EB1 backlog at the beginning of FY= EB1 backlog at the end of FY!

[leo07]

I think Veni meant 10-01-2010. Which partially would have appeared in 140 approvals listed.

[Spectator]

4. You can use following approval to denial ratio's at 140 stage in calculating 485 demand

EB1 - 81:19
EB2 - 87:13
EB3 - 97:3

or 15% across the board

Veni,

I wanted to ask about denial rates, since I was looking into this further this morning.

I know there is a previous post somewhere, but can you remind me how the EB2 and EB3 denial rate is calculated?

From the EB1 data, although the straight average is 19%, not all EB1 subcategories have equal percentages of cases or denial rates. In this case, the weighted average is 16.58%.

The USCIS Dashboard data and the recently published report http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf appear to be consistent. For I-140, the number of Receipts in the report exactly match those from the Dashboard. That should give some hope that other figures are also consistent.

For I-140, the Dashboard gives Completion data and the Report gives Approval data. Since Completions are Approvals + Denials, then by subtraction, we now know the Denial numbers.

This gives the following overall Denial rates for I-140 Completions in FY2011:

Quarter 1 ----- 14.90%

January 2011 -- 14.01%
February 2011 - 11.13%
March 2011 ----- 7.91%

Quarter 2 ----- 10.86%

Q1 + Q2 ------- 12.77%

Although the data is over a slightly longer period, we might assume that EB1 still has a denial rate of 16.6% within that.

In light of that information, what do the relative EB2 and EB3 denial rates look like?

Thanks in advance.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
You can not double-dip by not counting EB1-140 approvals for the last 10 weeks of FY2011 and at the same time assuming EB1 backlog at the beginning of FY= EB1 backlog at the end of FY!

Yes I agree but what I wanted to say is that there would be a number pending into next ur from this yr too right....

[nishant2200]

aila eb1 data bit clear over here:

http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518

neospeed , your google/internet search kung-fu is amazing.

[veni001]

Here it is ....

From FY2011 Q1+Q2 PERM data
Total Approvals=35k
IC approvals = 20k
ROWMP approvals = 15k

Using 70/30 for IC and 50/50 for ROWMP will give following EB2:EB3 breakdown
EB2 = 21.5k
EB3 = 13.5k
Total = 35k


From FY2011 i140 Receipts data
Total i140 Receipts = 42K
EB1=7.0k
EB2=21.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
EB3=13.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
Total =42k

FY2011 Q1+Q2 I140 denials =4.5k (from my previous post)

Now, I am using the following logic for i140 denials

%EB1 denials>%EB2 denials>%EB3 denials, which means

4.5k = 7.0k(x%)+21.5k(y%)+13.5k(z%)
100%= 4.5k denials & x>y>z

Based on previous USCIS EB11&EB12 -i140 denial data i am assuming X as 25% and solving for Y&Z

If you wish you can plug different number for X and then solve for Y & Z

Q,
When i plug 19% EB1 denial ratio (FY 2011 data) in the equations then based on PERM breakdown
EB2-i140 denial rate will be ~13% and EB3-i140 denial rate will be ~3%.

Veni,

I wanted to ask about denial rates, since I was looking into this further this morning.

I know there is a previous post somewhere, but can you remind me how the EB2 and EB3 denial rate is calculated?

From the EB1 data, although the straight average is 19%, not all EB1 subcategories have equal percentages of cases or denial rates. In this case, the weighted average is 16.58%.

The USCIS Dashboard data and the recently published report http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf appear to be consistent. For I-140, the number of Receipts in the report exactly match those from the Dashboard. That should give some hope that other figures are also consistent.

For I-140, the Dashboard gives Completion data and the Report gives Approval data. Since Completions are Approvals + Denials, then by subtraction, we now know the Denial numbers.

This gives the following overall Denial rates for I-140 Completions in FY2011:

Quarter 1 ----- 14.90%

January 2011 -- 14.01%
February 2011 - 11.13%
March 2011 ----- 7.91%

Quarter 2 ----- 10.86%

Q1 + Q2 ------- 12.77%

Although the data is over a slightly longer period, we might assume that EB1 still has a denial rate of 16.6% within that.

In light of that information, what do the relative EB2 and EB3 denial rates look like?

Thanks in advance.

Spec,
Please see the methodology i was using above.
For EB1, I am using straight denial rate of 19% for EB1 instead of weighted average.
This methodology provide a way to calculate EB2/EB3 denial rates by assuming one (or if we know one out of the three variables)
Please don't take this as 100% accurate since there are assumptions on receipts Vs Completions Vs Denials.

P.S: If you think this approach got any validity, we can work towards improving it.

[veni001]

Yes I agree but what I wanted to say is that there would be a number pending into next ur from this yr too right....

That's right, my point is if you want to assume the same EB1-485 backlog(beginning of FY= end of FY) then take full-year (12 months) EB1 demand into consideration, not just until July 19, 2011.

[kd2008]

Few things to note while estimating future demand based on PERM Certification Data:

1.Porting numbers are less than our estimates,and will not be significant while calculating demand from PERM data (Ex: 4.0k porting/year ~= 1K PERM)

2.In most cases while using PERM numbers, Porting out ~= Porting in(future), this will neutralize the effect for calculations.

3.PERM is a costly and time consuming process, So all most all PERM approvals will have 140 filing.

4.Based on PW data you can use following breakdown for EB2:EB3 to derive EB2/EB3 demand

IC - 75:25
ROWMP - 65:35

4. You can use following approval to denial ratio's at 140 stage in calculating 485 demand

EB1 - 81:19
EB2 - 87:13
EB3 - 97:3

or 15% across the board

5. At the end you can use i140 to 485 ratio to estimate 485 demand.

Q, Spec, Veni, Could we add the above algorithm to the place where Spec has his algorithm to calculate PERM data in Facts and Data? May be also mention that I-485/I-140 ratio for Eb2IC is 2.04 avg. I think this will help newbies calculate the number of people ahead of them and verify what we all are talking about.

[qesehmk]

Veni / Spec

Good suggestion by KD. If its not already there may be in the next week or earlier I will put together a simple picture of how to calculate how much demand is ahead of somebody. If you have it already ready please go ahead. Otherwise I will do it as I said.

Q, Spec, Veni, Could we add the above algorithm to the place where Spec has his algorithm to calculate PERM data in Facts and Data? May be also mention that I-485/I-140 ratio for Eb2IC is 2.04 avg. I think this will help newbies calculate the number of people ahead of them and verify what we all are talking about.

[Spectator]

Veni,

I wanted to have one last comment about EB1 backlog going into FY2012, then I am going to leave it alone.

First, let's forget any previous backlog from previous years.

We have the EB1 July figures and we also know from the USCIS Processing times that TSC is taking 8 months to adjudicate EB1 I-140 and NSC is taking slightly over 4 months.

The July data is approximately 10 months into the FY.

So we might surmise that when the report was generated, that 8/10 of TSC receipts have yet to be adjudicated and 4/10 of NSC receipts remain unadjudicated.

That gives a total of just over 9.6k backlog at the date of the report.

As the months continue to the end of the year, eventually that amount will fall off the end of FY2011 into FY2012 as the starting backlog.

In fact, because Completions are less than Receipts, we might expect the backlog to increase before reaching the end of the FY to around 10.3k.

If Receipts and Processing Times at the respective Service Centers remain unchanged in FY2012, enough further I-140s can be approved such that c. 35k I-485s could be approved (taking into account the I-140 denial rate) in FY2012.

Possibly, this is one we may have to agree to disagree on.

[veni001]

Veni,

I wanted to have one last comment about EB1 backlog going into FY2012, then I am going to leave it alone.

First, let's forget any previous backlog from previous years.

We have the EB1 July figures and we also know from the USCIS Processing times that TSC is taking 8 months to adjudicate EB1 I-140 and NSC is taking slightly over 4 months.

The July data is approximately 10 months into the FY.

So we might surmise that when the report was generated, that 8/10 of TSC receipts have yet to be adjudicated and 4/10 of NSC receipts remain unadjudicated.

That gives a total of just over 9.6k backlog at the date of the report.

As the months continue to the end of the year, eventually that amount will fall off the end of FY2011 into FY2012 as the starting backlog.

In fact, because Completions are less than Receipts, we might expect the backlog to increase before reaching the end of the FY to around 10.3k.

If Receipts and Processing Times at the respective Service Centers remain unchanged in FY2012, enough further I-140s can be approved such that c. 35k I-485s could be approved (taking into account the I-140 denial rate) in FY2012.

Possibly, this is one we may have to agree to disagree on.

Spec,
We always agree to disagree

In theory what you said is exactly correct, but those processing times are averages.

Remember i had to remove some of the USCIS average processing times from the update in FACTS AND DATA section after you provided clarification.

In practice irrespective of processing times numbers should match ( Receipts = Completions + Backlog + "delta" )

I think we will get better picture once we know full year EB1-140 receipts Vs FY2011 usage, probably early FY2012!

Until then we can leave it here...

[vedu]

Veni,

I wanted to have one last comment about EB1 backlog going into FY2012, then I am going to leave it alone.

First, let's forget any previous backlog from previous years.

We have the EB1 July figures and we also know from the USCIS Processing times that TSC is taking 8 months to adjudicate EB1 I-140 and NSC is taking slightly over 4 months.

The July data is approximately 10 months into the FY.

So we might surmise that when the report was generated, that 8/10 of TSC receipts have yet to be adjudicated and 4/10 of NSC receipts remain unadjudicated.

That gives a total of just over 9.6k backlog at the date of the report.

As the months continue to the end of the year, eventually that amount will fall off the end of FY2011 into FY2012 as the starting backlog.

In fact, because Completions are less than Receipts, we might expect the backlog to increase before reaching the end of the FY to around 10.3k.

If Receipts and Processing Times at the respective Service Centers remain unchanged in FY2012, enough further I-140s can be approved such that c. 35k I-485s could be approved (taking into account the I-140 denial rate) in FY2012.

Possibly, this is one we may have to agree to disagree on.

Spec/Veni,

Many of the EB1 applicants (approximately 50%) apply for premium processing. So I don't think that USCIS processing time delays affect them. They get their I-140's approved within days.

[Spectator]

Spec/Veni,

Many of the EB1 applicants (approximately 50%) apply for premium processing. So I don't think that USCIS processing time delays affect them. They get their I-140's approved within days.

vedu,

A fair point, but I don't think the % is correct.

EB1C cannot use Premium Processing at all.

Trackitt suggests PP for EB1 is around 10-14%.

Trackitt EB1 data is heavily loaded towards Indian applicants, who are far more likely to use PP. ROW, who form the majority of EB1 may not be quite so concerned, but are not very well represented on Trackitt.

Since many, if not most EB1 seem to attract an RFE, the number who would actually be approved within days, is probably far less than even that number.

[vedu]

Trackitt EB1 data is heavily loaded towards Indian applicants, who are far more likely to use PP. ROW, who form the majority of EB1 may not be quite so concerned, but are not very well represented on Trackitt.

Spec,

What makes you think that Indian EB1 applicants are far more likely to use PP than ROW EB1 applicants? Is there any evidence to suggest that? Just asking....

[veni001]

Spec,

What makes you think that Indian EB1 applicants are far more likely to use PP than ROW EB1 applicants? Is there any evidence to suggest that? Just asking....

vedu,
This is based on trackitt data.

[mesan123]

Is it true by default can people in EB3 file to EB2 ????

"What can go wrong is less EB1 spill over once pending app from 2011 start getting clear in 2012 and more porting since it will be 5th year after so many EB3 who had filled AOS, they might be eligible for EB2 just without doing master. "

What I think is there will be at least 5-6 k Porting and 2-3k people who could not file for AOS in 2007. total so far is 7-8k and each month average has 2.5k in 2007 upto july so if we take same then it will be another 12.5k from Aug - Dec 2007. which is 19-20k just before 2007 end.

Now if DOS sees there can be enough supply of visas in next year they will move date to that level. from history I can say that there is 20-30k visa supply to EB2 IC including their regular quota in last 2-3 years. going with same level date can move till Dec 2007 - March 2008 next year if all above assumptions true.


What can go wrong is less EB1 spill over once pending app from 2011 start getting clear in 2012 and more porting since it will be 5th year after so many EB3 who had filled AOS, they might be eligible for EB2 just without doing master.

[pch053]

Teddy, Veni,

You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.

kd2008 I agree you are probably right even though the dispute is related to H2B it sems to affect the entire process. Lets wait for further updates.

Does this imply that there will be no Labor certification and prevailing wage certification for new H1B applicants or any H1B transfer cases too?

[pch053]

Is it true by default can people in EB3 file to EB2 ????

"What can go wrong is less EB1 spill over once pending app from 2011 start getting clear in 2012 and more porting since it will be 5th year after so many EB3 who had filled AOS, they might be eligible for EB2 just without doing master. "

No, people from EB3 won't be eligible to apply in EB2 category by default. If an individual with an approved I140 under EB3 category, joins a new job that fulfills the requirement pertaining to EB2 category and the individual meets the necessary qualification, then s/he can apply for a green card under EB2 category. In this case, the individual can use the PD from the earlier approved I140 under EB3 category. The average estimate is that there are around 3K - 4K EB3 -> EB2 porting cases every year.

[mesan123]

Thank you for the reply..

No, people from EB3 won't be eligible to apply in EB2 category by default. If an individual with an approved I140 under EB3 category, joins a new job that fulfills the requirement pertaining to EB2 category and the individual meets the necessary qualification, then s/he can apply for a green card under EB2 category. In this case, the individual can use the PD from the earlier approved I140 under EB3 category. The average estimate is that there are around 3K - 4K EB3 -> EB2 porting cases every year.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

This month we made yet another small donation. ($85 Sankara Netralaya). This will cover one free cataract surgery for a needy person.

Some of the site users asked us if THIS SITE needed donations. Forunately we don't. But if you want to donate, then please donate to our Charity of the Month.

You can find individual credits listed at the top of the donations thread.

p.s. - Also for next month we have two suggestions so far. 1) Hrudaya 2) Udavum Karangal (Helping Hands). We can select one of these as our Charity of Month for next month (or any other if there are more suggestions). So please feel free to add more suggestions to the different thread - as long as the charity has a registered US based non-profit front to accept donations in US. I will add a poll to select one of these charities after 10th of this month.

[kolugc]

On a bit different note, are we heading to another recession or what? I am sure that would affect most of us in one way or other. I hope its not another recession coming and just small phase of recovery. Please share your inputs.

[ishore]

Friends, Do you think dates are going to retrogress this october because of new filings? i filed mine in july with PD Dec 29, 2006

[qesehmk]

IMHO any movement upto Mid July 2007 will not require retrogression.

Friends, Do you think dates are going to retrogress this october because of new filings? i filed mine in july with PD Dec 29, 2006