EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

If there is no surge in overall I140 receipts for q3 and q4, that proves that EB1 demand for H2 will be much less than H1.

[veni001]

Veni, you are correct. my bad. Could the delay be due to 2007 july fiasco and its load? I really don't know.

Based on I140 data almost all of July 2007 load (backlogs) was cleared by end of FY2009.

Veni,

originally with your calculations it appeared that fy2010 eb1 140 receipts < fy 2011 but based on the recent information, fy2011 140 receipts must be less thatn fy2010 (we need to wait for 1-2 months though) if not equal.

is this correct?

biber,
All we are trying to derive from the data is EB1 backlogs as of July 2011( EB1 to-date data availability).

From FY2009,FY2010 and FY2011 to-date data, it should be

EB1-140 Backlog = EB1-140 Receipts - EB1-140 Completions + "delta" (= EB1-140 backlog at the end of FY2008)

[qesehmk]

H1 = First half of year
H2 = Second half of year

Q
I agree with you regarding double dip , CNN also forecast the same few weeks ago.
what is H2 here ?

imdeng - whoever those PERMs belong to ... higher numbers means there are employers willing to sponsor PERMs!! Right? I do agree however that PERM labor market is not exactly same as general labor market. In other words .. the need for high skilled labor (H1 & EB1/2/3 GC) is somewhat different from normal labor market. But the fact is banks bounced back in 2010 big time, big businesses turned to significant profits ... which is exactly whats good for the high skilled labor.

I think you are right about future outlook for EB1 and EB2ROW receipts (not necessarily consumption though - which has some backlog built now).

Regarding your MBA experience - its very interesting. I do think that the allure of US MBA will go away as India and China (more so) continue to achieve parity in terms of salary offered for top MBAs. Obtaining jobs in US for Indians and Chinese MBA graduates is extremely tough even otherwise unless the job is highly analytical as in financial industry. If recession deepens ... its going to be uglier. When I graduated I remember almost 10% of MBAs were Indians in all schools and about 30% total were foreign students. Wonder if that % has dropped now?

Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC).

My PD is Aug-09 and I am hopeful that the lower 2009 numbers will be helpful. I am also encouraged by the continuing bad economy - it has to affect EB1/EB2-ROW negatively - which is good for EB2IC. I am aware of the placement figures for a top business school - and the year I graduated (2008) - almost all international students got US based jobs - maybe 5% went back - that too sometimes because of better options back home, the year after that some 25% had to go back, and for 2010 graduating class about half of international students went back to home countries. The pattern has been so severe that international student arrivals from IC in top business schools has reduced significantly. There still are a lot of Korean students coming - but a higher proportion of them tend to go back historically.

EB2 GC pipeline really originates at the H1B level, which is filled partially by the international students in US. Both of these are down significantly - and perhaps for many years considering the economy and hiring restrictions on international students. This is potentially a tailwind for EB2IC PD in the long term.

In the year 2008 , there was a huge scrutiny followed by the DoL , even they audited the perm by coming down to the employer's place. If the company had any lay offs earlier , employers certainly delayed the perm process of other employees. May be this is one among the various other reasons for high numbers in 2010

I agree. But I see all these scrutinies and throwing up different rules and change of procedures as ways to implement policy! In other words ... market has its own behavior in terms of labor market. But then the government also has a set of immigration policies to implement that usually go together with the market and political environment.

[bieber]

biber,
All we are trying to derive from the data is EB1 backlogs as of July 2011( EB1 to-date data availability).

From FY2009,FY2010 and FY2011 to-date data, it should be

EB1-140 Backlog = EB1-140 Receipts - EB1-140 Completions + "delta" (= EB1-140 backlog at the end of FY2008)

Thx veni, I understood that and how you arrived at ~2k could be the delta. My point is our Facts&Data section shows that EB1 I140 receipts for fy 2010 < fy2011 but in reality it could be quite opposite (based on recent CIS information)

[piratla]

In the year 2008 , there was a huge scrutiny followed by the DoL , even they audited the perm by coming down to the employer's place. If the company had any lay offs earlier , employers certainly delayed the perm process of other employees. May be this is one among the various other reasons for high numbers in 2010

The same continued later as well. For example Microsoft had lay-offs in the first half of 2009. They didn't encourage filing for new PERM applications almost till 2010 June. Also even though lay offs were in 2009, all those people who filed for PERM from MSFT in late 2008 got an audit in late 2009.

[soggadu]

guys... i understand all of you are spending great deal of time on these new calculations... Can some1 please post a bottom line analysis in lay man's words please.... will be helpful for all of us "the lurkers"...

[skpanda]

I do not think the 2010 PERM numbers (that we are discussing) will matter much:

Data from a previous discussion:

PERM Approvals:

EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

70K EB2IC primary applicants (About 150K GCs including family members - needed to clear the backlog).

Even if we consider Denials (140/485), People left for their own country etc, there will be around 55K EB2IC primary applicants (around 120K GCs needed including family members). Long way to go.

Hopefully the 7% country limit and counting the dependents are scrapped by passing a legislation in next 1 or 2 years. It should clear the backlog in a single shot.

[skpanda]

Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others...

Do we have better numbers than the below PERM ones?

Something like Approved EB2 I140 beyond Aug 2007? If yes, that would provide a good estimate (although there will be duplicate I140s for porting cases i think).

I do not think the 2010 PERM numbers (that we are discussing) will matter much:

Data from a previous discussion:

PERM Approvals:

EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

70K EB2IC primary applicants (About 150K GCs including family members - needed to clear the backlog).

Even if we consider Denials (140/485), People left for their own country etc, there will be around 55K EB2IC primary applicants (around 120K GCs needed including family members). Long way to go.

Hopefully the 7% country limit and counting the dependents are scrapped by passing a legislation in next 1 or 2 years. It should clear the backlog in a single shot.

[mesan123]

I agree with soggadu....i also belong to "the lukers" list

guys... i understand all of you are spending great deal of time on these new calculations... Can some1 please post a bottom line analysis in lay man's words please.... will be helpful for all of us "the lurkers"...

[leo4ever]

@Soggadu,

Why don't you read the whole thread rather than asking questions.
.
..
...
Just kidding man, i know you are comedy king :-)
Anyway, Mein ne app ko kahi pe dekha??????
Do you come on TV?

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends those of you who are looking for a brief summary, here is one.
- The resting point in the Sep VB will be between 15-MAY-2007 to 15-JUN-2007. Extreme scenarios like no movement or 01-AUG-2007 are unlikely.
- For next year the estimated SOFAD in the worst case doomsday scenario maybe 18K, this may just be able to set the date to 01-SEP-2007. In the best of the best case scenario we might see 35K SOFAD in the coming year something similar to this year with this number the dates will reach somewhere in Q1 2008. The real truth will be somewhere in between but it will be possible to predict this with some more visibility and information. A balanced guess at best for next year can be 25K which maybe sufficient to clear out most of 2007 likely will put dates somewhere in Dec 2007. Right now there are many factors that need to be watched a) EB1 and EB2 ROW approvals it needs atleast a quarter of observation b) I 140 approval rates.

[qesehmk]

on this thread and through private messages some of you are asking what the gist is:
a) Future outlook for EB2 in 2012 and beyond.
b) September bulletin

The answer to a) is outlook for EB2 is ok. I haven't done detailed calculation as others might have. But as I said .... the economy will help EB2IC. If others have the calculations pls provide. In any case I will undertake that work a couple of months down the line as 2011 is behind us.

The answer to b) is different depending on who you ask. I can give you my "opinion" more than "analysis". I think the dates will move at least upto first week of July. This is based on YTD trackitt trend that is converging very nicely to 30K NET SOFAD (i.e. 35K total sofad). That easily brings dates to July first weeek.

The movement could be much bigger if DoS goes for BTM.

p.s. - Teddy thanks for a nice summary. I think directionally we are aligned. The difference in terms of September movement is easily less than "NOISE". So I wouldn't worry about it.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others...

Do we have better numbers than the below PERM ones?

Something like Approved EB2 I140 beyond Aug 2007? If yes, that would provide a good estimate (although there will be duplicate I140s for porting cases i think).

You might like to look at the following, this is closest to what you are looking for.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

[sswaitinggc]

TeddyKoochu, I remember from previous posts (think 2 week back) thre prediction for sep vb was Mid Aug 2007, Did that change with any new data? Pls let me know.

Friends those of you who are looking for a brief summary, here is one.
- The resting point in the Sep VB will be between 15-MAY-2007 to 15-JUN-2007. Extreme scenarios like no movement or 01-AUG-2007 are unlikely.
- For next year the estimated SOFAD in the worst case doomsday scenario maybe 18K, this may just be able to set the date to 01-SEP-2007. In the best of the best case scenario we might see 35K SOFAD in the coming year something similar to this year with this number the dates will reach somewhere in Q1 2008. The real truth will be somewhere in between but it will be possible to predict this with some more visibility and information. A balanced guess at best for next year can be 25K which maybe sufficient to clear out most of 2007 likely will put dates somewhere in Dec 2007. Right now there are many factors that need to be watched a) EB1 and EB2 ROW approvals it needs atleast a quarter of observation b) I 140 approval rates.

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyKoochu, I remember from previous posts (think 2 week back) thre prediction for sep vb was Mid Aug 2007, Did that change with any new data? Pls let me know.

Many experts here have suggested that there is a possibility of 7-8K so that’s not entirely impossible, however personally I would attribute a very low probability to it. After the August bulletin I have maintained that the SOFAD for SEP will be ~ 3-4K which may just put the dates somewhere in June.

[soggadu]

Friends those of you who are looking for a brief summary, here is one.
- The resting point in the Sep VB will be between 15-MAY-2007 to 15-JUN-2007. Extreme scenarios like no movement or 01-AUG-2007 are unlikely.
- For next year the estimated SOFAD in the worst case doomsday scenario maybe 18K, this may just be able to set the date to 01-SEP-2007. In the best of the best case scenario we might see 35K SOFAD in the coming year something similar to this year with this number the dates will reach somewhere in Q1 2008. The real truth will be somewhere in between but it will be possible to predict this with some more visibility and information. A balanced guess at best for next year can be 25K which maybe sufficient to clear out most of 2007 likely will put dates somewhere in Dec 2007. Right now there are many factors that need to be watched a) EB1 and EB2 ROW approvals it needs atleast a quarter of observation b) I 140 approval rates.

Thank you Big T... very well put...

[soggadu]

@Soggadu,

Why don't you read the whole thread rather than asking questions.
.
..
...
Just kidding man, i know you are comedy king :-)
Anyway, Mein ne app ko kahi pe dekha??????
Do you come on TV?

yes i read the whole thread, in the mean while my wife asked something and i asked back...Who are You, Do i know you!!!... it took some time to come back... i thought there should be a better way ....

Leo bhai/ben... if u r asking abt my Avatar...yes i am featured in family guy... if you are asking at the personal level... You got to be kidding me or you are watching Discovery channel...

[murali83]

Many experts here have suggested that there is a possibility of 7-8K so that’s not entirely impossible, however personally I would attribute a very low probability to it. After the August bulletin I have maintained that the SOFAD for SEP will be ~ 3-4K which may just put the dates somewhere in June.

Hi Teddy,

If 3-4 K SOFAD can put it into mid-June, which is a 2 month movement (lets even say 1st week of june which makes it 7 week movement), looking at the numbers every month (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29) which indicate very similar numbers for every month between 2000 and 2500. Why do you predict that a 18000 SOFAD for the full yr will only take it to Sep 2007. And Q also had written a couple of pages back that 18000 sofad is enuf to take it to Mar 2008. He assumed that there 11 K in 2007 post July and 7 K can clear upto Mar 2008. Even if we account for 4 K between Mid June to July end, It should at least reach Jan 2008 with 18K SOFAD.

Am I missing something?

[TeddyKoochu]

Why do you predict that a 18000 SOFAD for the full yr will only take it to Sep 2007. And Q also had written a couple of pages back that 18000 sofad is enuf to take it to Mar 2008. He assumed that there 11 K in 2007 post July and 7 K can clear upto Mar 2008. Even if we account for 4 K between Mid June to July end, It should at least reach Jan 2008 with 18K SOFAD.

Am I missing something?

The prediction of 18K SOFAD for the next year is a absolute doomsday prediction by all experts here its not my individual one. We should all be positive and hope it does not happen. You are missing 14K folks who will also be there to grab the SOFAD a) Unapproved preadjudicated cases 5K b) PD Porting 6K c) PWMB - 3K. So what is left is just 4K for movement after 01-AUG-2007 in this scenario.

[nishant2200]

The prediction of 18K SOFAD for the next year is a absolute doomsday prediction by all experts here its not my individual one. We should all be positive and hope it does not happen. You are missing 14K folks who will also be there to grab the SOFAD a) Unapproved preadjudicated cases 5K b) PD Porting 6K c) PWMB - 3K. So what is left is just 4K for movement after 01-AUG-2007 in this scenario.

I would like to add that around 2.5k a month is a good rough estimate for demand in each month in post july 2007 to mid 2008.

[gc_usa]

Hi Teddy,

If 3-4 K SOFAD can put it into mid-June, which is a 2 month movement (lets even say 1st week of june which makes it 7 week movement), looking at the numbers every month (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29) which indicate very similar numbers for every month between 2000 and 2500. Why do you predict that a 18000 SOFAD for the full yr will only take it to Sep 2007. And Q also had written a couple of pages back that 18000 sofad is enuf to take it to Mar 2008. He assumed that there 11 K in 2007 post July and 7 K can clear upto Mar 2008. Even if we account for 4 K between Mid June to July end, It should at least reach Jan 2008 with 18K SOFAD.

Am I missing something?

What I think is there will be at least 5-6 k Porting and 2-3k people who could not file for AOS in 2007. total so far is 7-8k and each month average has 2.5k in 2007 upto july so if we take same then it will be another 12.5k from Aug - Dec 2007. which is 19-20k just before 2007 end.

Now if DOS sees there can be enough supply of visas in next year they will move date to that level. from history I can say that there is 20-30k visa supply to EB2 IC including their regular quota in last 2-3 years. going with same level date can move till Dec 2007 - March 2008 next year if all above assumptions true.


What can go wrong is less EB1 spill over once pending app from 2011 start getting clear in 2012 and more porting since it will be 5th year after so many EB3 who had filled AOS, they might be eligible for EB2 just without doing master.

[veni001]

Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others...

Do we have better numbers than the below PERM ones?

Something like Approved EB2 I140 beyond Aug 2007? If yes, that would provide a good estimate (although there will be duplicate I140s for porting cases i think).

Few things to note while estimating future demand based on PERM Certification Data:

1.Porting numbers are less than our estimates,and will not be significant while calculating demand from PERM data (Ex: 4.0k porting/year ~= 1K PERM)

2.In most cases while using PERM numbers, Porting out ~= Porting in(future), this will neutralize the effect for calculations.

3.PERM is a costly and time consuming process, So all most all PERM approvals will have 140 filing.

4.Based on PW data you can use following breakdown for EB2:EB3 to derive EB2/EB3 demand

IC - 75:25
ROWMP - 65:35

4. You can use following approval to denial ratio's at 140 stage in calculating 485 demand

EB1 - 81:19
EB2 - 87:13
EB3 - 97:3

or 15% across the board

5. At the end you can use i140 to 485 ratio to estimate 485 demand.

[neospeed]

aila eb1 data bit clear over here:

http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518

[srivi2007]

The prediction of 18K SOFAD for the next year is a absolute doomsday prediction by all experts here its not my individual one. We should all be positive and hope it does not happen. You are missing 14K folks who will also be there to grab the SOFAD a) Unapproved preadjudicated cases 5K b) PD Porting 6K c) PWMB - 3K. So what is left is just 4K for movement after 01-AUG-2007 in this scenario.

Hi Teddy,

If we assume the dates for Sep VB resides somewhere in June 07 in that case will it remain in the same date till next spill over season (May 2012) are there is a possibilty for the dates to move in the forthcoming VB's starting from Oct 2011.

Thanks

[soggadu]

aila eb1 data bit clear over here:

http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518

Woooowww...so it is really true that only 8.7K 140's approved till July 2011 for this FY...that might be around 17.5K total 485's...i.e. 22.5K spilover... even new 140 applications come after July 20 2011, they will take 4 months to process, so no more real demand.... What do you guys think???

Neo...thanks for the info...