EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[nishant2200]

I feel it. I have been at times thinking of doomsday sceanarios, and will be more realistically positive from now. A happy n clear mind leads to good direction.

I am glad ur husband is able to keep away. I am addicted to Q's forum

Thank you Q . Thats a A+++ .

Sorry I was emotional . Permanent Residentship is not going to make much diff in my life, except for travel , but without it there is a feeling of uncertainity in all aspects. I dont know how many of you feel it .

[Monica12]

Thank you Q . Thats a A+++ .

Sorry I was emotional . Permanent Residentship is not going to make much diff in my life, except for travel , but without it there is a feeling of uncertainity in all aspects. I dont know how many of you feel it .

JJ behen ( sister)...It's good to know you are female..we all have been calling you bhai all this time
Nishant, Q ... amen to that...realistically positive sounds good..good way to start the new month, so many hopes built in this month..
Q and others who are current. May all of you get your GC soon!
Good luck to everyone, including me who are hoping to be current in Sep VB!

[kd2008]

From Immigration-law.com



As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.

[veni001]

From Immigration-law.com

As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.

kd2008,
If my interpretation is correct, it is only affecting H2-B?

[TeddyKoochu]

From Immigration-law.com



As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.

This is only for H2B cases. Prevailing wage request is required even for H1.

The H-2B working visa is a nonimmigrant visa which allows foreign nationals to enter into the U.S. temporarily and engage in nonagricultural employment which is seasonal, intermittent, a peak load need, or a one-time occurrence.

[kd2008]

Teddy, Veni,

You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, Veni,

You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.

kd2008 I agree you are probably right even though the dispute is related to H2B it sems to affect the entire process. Lets wait for further updates.

[mesan123]

Eb1Statistics2011.JPG

just found this EB1 stats of Aila from other sites....may be it will be usefull for calculations

[veni001]

Eb1Statistics2011.JPG

just found this EB1 stats of Aila from other sites....may be it will be usefull for calculations

nnnnn123,
Please check few pages back, we analyzed this data extensively last Friday(07/29/11) itself.

[qesehmk]

veni

Looking at that post you referred ... I still don't see any reference to pending 485s as of end of FY 2008 and 2010. Perhaps you need to consider that.

But as you say ... we have beaten this to death. I guess you and spec were trying to figure out if there was a surge in EB1 processing. And the answer is absolutely there was a surge last year when they cleared all EB1 backlog.

Q,
Please check my post above and see if at all makes any sense, I have used data from FY2009.

Teddy, Veni,
You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.

KD you have become a de-facto Guru! Good find!


Everybody, thanks for the wishes! For those who are current - "Din hai suhana aaj pehali taarikh hain! Khush hain jamana aaj pehli tarikh hain"! Watch the song on youtube Bow to Kishorda!

August 1 has finally arrived.
The very best of luck to everybody who has become Current, particularly Q.
May all your cases be picked up early.

Q,
All the best, hope you will get approval this week.

Q and everyone who is current, all the very best may you all see approvals soon. All friends waiting good luck for the Sep VB.

..
Q and others who are current. May all of you get your GC soon!
Good luck to everyone, including me who are hoping to be current in Sep VB!

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Based on people's wishes from the poll we recently conducted - We will NOT be mandating registration to view Live Discussion forum.

Although I and some others had a different view - I guess - if majority feels differently then that's what we will do.

Thanks for participation.

[soggadu]

Friends

Eventhough all the available data denotes a low Spillover in the upcoming years , it is very hard to digest without a sugar coating . Too much of worst case scenario analysis breaks our heart (with later PDs) .

Actually, my husband who is the primary, never bothers for all these datas and number crunching . I , somehow got into this and ofcourse it is really interesting to read immigration related data analysis . But whenever I comeacross things like future of eb2 is indefinite , oh my God , ignorance is bliss.

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies " (The Shawshank Redemption )

Let me hope for the best .

Sorry :-( all the while i refered to u as u were JJ bhai...sorry JJ ben...

All the guys /gals who got current... jaldi khush kabri de doo...

[gc_usa]

Friends,

Based on people's wishes from the poll we recently conducted - We will NOT be mandating registration to view Live Discussion forum.

Although I and some others had a different view - I guess - if majority feels differently then that's what we will do.

Thanks for participation.

Thanks and good luck to you...

[veni001]

veni

Looking at that post you referred ... I still don't see any reference to pending 485s as of end of FY 2008 and 2010. Perhaps you need to consider that.

But as you say ... we have beaten this to death. I guess you and spec were trying to figure out if there was a surge in EB1 processing. And the answer is absolutely there was a surge last year when they cleared all EB1 backlog.

Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY.

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.

[mvinayam]

Good Luck to all who are Current. Hope you all receive your approvals at the earliest.

Q, is it possible for us to get any info from your source regarding the Sep VB. Also, Gurus what is the final intake on SPOFAD for EB2IC for Sep VB??

[qesehmk]

Yep fair enough.

Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY.

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.

[kd2008]

Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY.

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.

With reference to the item I have bolded (?) and underlined, it may not be necessarily true as lower number of approvals may be due to FBI name check delays, esp, in 2008/2009. So the delta can still be large. I would be expect this delta to be small this year do to the overall efficiency improvements in processing from USCIS but one cannot be always sure.

Q, thank you for your kind words. I contribute what I can just as everyone else.

[murali83]

Q,

One follow up question,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

Based on that perms in Jan 2008-June 2008 for example are more than Jan 2007 - June 2007, did the economy dip just lower what would have been more.

Kanmani ... ironically the bad ecomony and double dip will help EB2. The worst case for next year IMHO would be 18K SOFAD which is not too bad! So I wouldn't say EB2 has indefinite wait. EB2 has decent future. Its EB3 that doesn't look good at all. That's the reason why Indians and Chinese and ROW should join hands to abolish counting of dependents towards quota. Anyway ... keep happy. Getting GC is just a matter of time. Focus on things that are more valuable than GC

[veni001]

With reference to the item I have bolded (?) and underlined, it may not be necessarily true as lower number of approvals may be due to FBI name check delays, esp, in 2008/2009. So the delta can still be large. I would be expect this delta to be small this year do to the overall efficiency improvements in processing from USCIS but one cannot be always sure.

Q, thank you for your kind words. I contribute what I can just as everyone else.

kd2008,
We are talking about EB1-i140 backlogs, i don't think 140 processing has anything to do with FBI name-check delays?

[bieber]

Veni,

originally with your calculations it appeared that fy2010 eb1 140 receipts < fy 2011 but based on the recent information, fy2011 140 receipts must be less thatn fy2010 (we need to wait for 1-2 months though) if not equal.

is this correct?

[kd2008]

kd2008,
We are talking about EB1-i140 backlogs, i don't think 140 processing has anything to do with FBI name-check delays?

Veni, you are correct. my bad. Could the delay be due to 2007 july fiasco and its load? I really don't know.

[qesehmk]

murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?

Q,

One follow up question,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

Based on that perms in Jan 2008-June 2008 for example are more than Jan 2007 - June 2007, did the economy dip just lower what would have been more.

[murali83]

Yes Sir, It does make sense now.

murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?

[imdeng]

Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC).

My PD is Aug-09 and I am hopeful that the lower 2009 numbers will be helpful. I am also encouraged by the continuing bad economy - it has to affect EB1/EB2-ROW negatively - which is good for EB2IC. I am aware of the placement figures for a top business school - and the year I graduated (2008) - almost all international students got US based jobs - maybe 5% went back - that too sometimes because of better options back home, the year after that some 25% had to go back, and for 2010 graduating class about half of international students went back to home countries. The pattern has been so severe that international student arrivals from IC in top business schools has reduced significantly. There still are a lot of Korean students coming - but a higher proportion of them tend to go back historically.

EB2 GC pipeline really originates at the H1B level, which is filled partially by the international students in US. Both of these are down significantly - and perhaps for many years considering the economy and hiring restrictions on international students. This is potentially a tailwind for EB2IC PD in the long term.

murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?

[Spectator]

Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC).

imdeng,

I agree that the FY2010 PERM figures aren't as bad as they look.

In addition to the factors you have mentioned, a number must be due to PERM certified for Porting purposes. These will actually have an earlier PD to attach to it.

The underlying figures are probably no worse than FY2009, which was the lowest yearly total.