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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #5076
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    I don't know if this is of any interest to anyone.

    Based on the average rate of usage to date and purely prorating the numbers to the end of the year, EB1 and EB2-ROW would end up at:

    EB1 -------- 25,145
    EB2-ROW -- 24,648

    Generally, EB2-ROW has hovered at around that + or - for some time. EB1 has been nearer 24k + or -.

    You would need to add EB2-MP to those figures - I would guess around 3-3.5k. I don't have any good data on those.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  2. #5077
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    I read several instances on Trackitt that people with EB3 ROW 2006 PD are porting or considering porting, for ROW I don’t think its appropriate to call it porting a new application in EB2 works well. This trend is beginning to pickup this year because EB3 ROW folks are frustrated with the way it is moving for a variety of reasons. The numbers would be less than what we are used to see for India but It would not be surprising if this causes up 2K uptick in EB2 ROW demand.
    Teddy and others... If per country limit is removed for IC...then will EB2 ROW be current? little offtopic but i had this question .... this may also discourage EB3 ROW to port...

    P.S. I am not at all making this as a discussion grounds for merits and demerits of the per country limits issue... please take my question as it is...

  3. #5078
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I don't know if this is of any interest to anyone.

    Based on the average rate of usage to date and purely prorating the numbers to the end of the year, EB1 and EB2-ROW would end up at:

    EB1 -------- 25,145
    EB2-ROW -- 24,648

    Generally, EB2-ROW has hovered at around that + or - for some time. EB1 has been nearer 24k + or -.

    You would need to add EB2-MP to those figures - I would guess around 3-3.5k. I don't have any good data on those.
    Spec... good post... so in theory... when CO opened SO from EB1 this year, he was of the opinion that EB1 would not be able to use its regular numbers (24K) right... so doesnt this point us to more SO from EB1 itself... ~20K ( as 16K SO is usual from your numbers )...or did anything really change since Apr 2011?
    Last edited by soggadu; 07-29-2011 at 03:01 PM.

  4. #5079
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    Teddy and others... If per country limit is removed for IC...then will EB2 ROW be current? little offtopic but i had this question .... this may also discourage EB3 ROW to port...

    P.S. I am not at all making this as a discussion grounds for merits and demerits of the per country limits issue... please take my question as it is...
    Currently there is 75-80K I/C demand + 10K ROW demand for EB2. So in theory if the country limits were abolished today EB2PD will be somewhere in Q1 2008.

  5. #5080
    Veni

    for fy2010, the calculations you made for EB1, based on (total 140 receipts - Perm), is around 7000

    while http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png shows fy2010 total EB1 receipts 16,894

    I know perm numbers will not immediately materialize into 140 receipts considering the time it takes for perm to be approved and the front and back numbers should cancel each other.
    But the magnitude of inequality (almost double the number) is not suggesting just that

    What's ur take?
    Last edited by bieber; 07-29-2011 at 03:40 PM.

  6. #5081
    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    Veni

    for fy2010, the calculations you made for EB1, based on (total 140 receipts - Perm), is around 7000

    while http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png shows fy2010 total EB1 receipts 16,894

    I know perm numbers will not immediately materialize into 140 receipts considering the time it takes for perm to be approved and the front and back numbers should cancel each other.
    But the magnitude of inequality (almost double the number) is not suggesting that

    What's ur take?
    Hmm i believe no perm for eb1 ?.

  7. #5082
    Quote Originally Posted by neospeed View Post
    Hmm i believe no perm for eb1 ?.
    yes, total 140 receipts - perm (eb2+eb3) = total eb1 receipts

  8. #5083
    I have a general question and this has nothing to do with number crunching, so remove/delete if it is not appropriate. After the start of recession has there been a significant reduction in GC filing in EB2 I? The key word here is significant.
    Also are more people returning to India due to improved opportunities there or lack of opportunities here? I don't have a large circle of indian friends, so I am trying to get this information here.
    Thanks

  9. #5084
    Unless more data comes in, my final take now after today's information, for September 2011 bulletin is:

    1st June 2007 with 3k movement.

    I think EB1 approvals will pick up some steam beginning 1st August.

    (This is unless they have some idea of a BTM, to which I don't know what probability to assign to. My heart wants it, but somehow my mind is saying they will wait and see until late Q2 FY 2012)

  10. #5085
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    Quote Originally Posted by neospeed View Post
    Hmm i believe no perm for eb1 ?.
    You are correct, that's why we are using PERM data and i140 receipts from USCIS dashboardto derive EB1-i140 data.

    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    Veni

    for fy2010, the calculations you made for EB1, based on (total 140 receipts - Perm), is around 7000

    while http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png shows fy2010 total EB1 receipts 16,894

    I know perm numbers will not immediately materialize into 140 receipts considering the time it takes for perm to be approved and the front and back numbers should cancel each other.
    But the magnitude of inequality (almost double the number) is not suggesting that

    What's ur take?
    bieber,
    Very good point, which is bringing very good observation. After thoroughly examining the monthly PERM & i140 data , off set between PERM approval and i140 receipt is 2 months. Once you take this into account then i140 receipts data from USCIS dashboard matches with PERM approvals+EB1 i140 (validates FY2010 as well as FY2011 to-date)
    Last edited by veni001; 07-29-2011 at 03:59 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  11. #5086
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Unless more data comes in, my final take now after today's information, for September 2011 bulletin is:

    1st June 2007 with 3k movement.

    I think EB1 approvals will pick up some steam beginning 1st August.

    (This is unless they have some idea of a BTM, to which I don't know what probability to assign to. My heart wants it, but somehow my mind is saying they will wait and see until late Q2 FY 2012)
    Abhi final mat Karo yaar... Aur dus din bore hojayenge....

  12. #5087
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    bieber,
    Very good point, which is bringing very good observation. After thoroughly examining the monthly PERM & i140 data , off set between PERM approval and i140 receipt is 2 months. Once you take this into account then i140 receipts data from USCIS dashboard matches with PERM approvals+EB1 i140 (validates FY2010 as well as FY2011 to-date)
    So, instead of using the PD if we use (approval date + 2 months) that will yield the exact EB1 140 numbers?

    I was hoping either you or spec will discover something in the lines of just considering certified or certified+expired but that's a lot to expect

  13. #5088
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    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    So, instead of using the PD if we use (approval date + 2 months) that will yield the exact EB1 140 numbers?

    I was hoping either you or spec will discover something in the lines of just considering certified or certified+expired but that's a lot to expect
    bieber,
    That's correct. Not exact number but very close.

    I think we beat Certified/Ciertified+Expired PERM discussion to death long time back
    Last edited by veni001; 07-29-2011 at 04:30 PM.

  14. #5089
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    Few more observations from EB1-i140 statistics:

    EB1 -i140 completions (not including RFEs)
    FY2010
    13,744+3,886 = 17,630 (Avg. 1,500 per month)
    FY2011 to-date
    8,712+1,998 = 10,710 (Avg. 1,100 per month)

    EB1-i140 completions are 4% more than the receipts in FY2010.
    EB1-i140 completions are 24% less than the receipts in FY2011 to-date.

    2011 to-date receipts compared to 2010 receipts:
    EB11 - 3% decrease
    EB12 - 3% decrease
    EB13 - 6% increase
    Last edited by veni001; 07-30-2011 at 08:28 AM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  15. #5090
    Guys,
    The demand data as of July shows 6000 odd EB2I pending. Assuming by September the demand drops to 4000, starting next fiscal quota in October, will EB2 take in 2800 in one go as there is demand pending or will it allocate ~250 per month ?

  16. #5091
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stemcell View Post
    Guys,
    The demand data as of July shows 6000 odd EB2I pending. Assuming by September the demand drops to 4000, starting next fiscal quota in October, will EB2 take in 2800 in one go as there is demand pending or will it allocate ~250 per month ?
    Stemcell,
    In theory USCIS has to stick to monthly/quarterly limits from Q1-Q3. But based on the leads received for FY2011, USCIS issued all 2.8k to EB2I in the first half (Q1+Q2) of the year (~500 per month).
    IMHO, as long as EB1 usage is low then USCIS may repeat the same for FY2012!
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  17. #5092
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stemcell View Post
    Guys,
    The demand data as of July shows 6000 odd EB2I pending. Assuming by September the demand drops to 4000, starting next fiscal quota in October, will EB2 take in 2800 in one go as there is demand pending or will it allocate ~250 per month ?
    Stemcell,

    I agree with Veni.

    The law proscribes that only a maximum of 27% of the total visas can be issued in each of the first three quarters.

    Over the last 2 years, DOS has shown themselves to be quite creative within this law and has allocated 5-600 visas per month to EB2-I at the beginning of the year. I think they were able to do this without breaking the OVERALL limit for the month.

    Perhaps more worrying is that the EB1 statistics just released suggest far higher approvals in FY2012 and that the low approvals in FY2011 are more a function of longer processing times than lower actual demand.

    That may ties DOS hand in how many visas they can say will be unused, which is vital to strong movement earlier than July.

    It will be interesting to see how DOS handle that. They may have to flout the law a bit to get the next batch of cases beyond July 2007 in time to stand a chance of USCIS adjudicating them within FY2012.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  18. #5093
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Stemcell,

    I agree with Veni.

    The law proscribes that only a maximum of 27% of the total visas can be issued in each of the first three quarters.

    Over the last 2 years, DOS has shown themselves to be quite creative within this law and has allocated 5-600 visas per month to EB2-I at the beginning of the year. I think they were able to do this without breaking the OVERALL limit for the month.

    Perhaps more worrying is that the EB1 statistics just released suggest far higher approvals in FY2012 and that the low approvals in FY2011 are more a function of longer processing times than lower actual demand.

    That may ties DOS hand in how many visas they can say will be unused, which is vital to strong movement earlier than July.

    It will be interesting to see how DOS handle that. They may have to flout the law a bit to get the next batch of cases beyond July 2007 in time to stand a chance of USCIS adjudicating them within FY2012.

    Thank you Veni and Spec.

  19. #5094
    In 2010, found that Sep bulletin was released on the aug 9th, monday of the second business week. Hence maybe, we can expect it this year on the 8th, similar monday.

  20. #5095
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    In 2010, found that Sep bulletin was released on the aug 9th, monday of the second business week. Hence maybe, we can expect it this year on the 8th, similar monday.
    nishant,
    Hopefully demand data on Monday(08/08) and Bulletin on Tuesday (08/09)
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  21. #5096
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    July EB1 Statistics

    I've been looking at these a bit further to try to understand what it might mean for next year.

    First there is a slight inconsistency with the 2010 figures.

    We know that there were 41,026 I-485 approvals in FY2010

    The figures show 13,744 total EB1 I-140 approvals for 2010.

    This gives a ratio of 2.99 to reach 41,026. We know from the DHS Statistics that the ratio was 2.4, so this is inconsistent.

    Taking the figures at face value and assuming the same conversion ratios as 2010, 17,676 prorated receipts in 2011 should have turned into 14,380 I-140 approvals, which would be around 35k I-485 approvals. In fact, because denial rates are slightly lower in 2011, the number would be slightly higher than that.

    If we assume that the FY2011 figure will actually become 26k I-485 approvals, then that is c. 25% less than expected (about 3 months worth).

    If we assume that everything continues at the present rate in 2012, then we might expect at least 35k EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012. The substantially lower denial rate on EB1C, if continued, would bring the figure over the 40k allocation.

    This might cause some concern for spillover numbers in FY2012, since it suggests that EB1 will not contribute very much next year, when it has been the major contributor this year.

    Bear in mind that the above makes quite a few assumptions and is a rather rough calculation.

    This is not something we didn't know already, but I wanted to start the process of quantifying it and prompting discussion.
    Last edited by Spectator; 07-31-2011 at 10:11 AM.
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  22. #5097
    agreed. early 2nd week it is.
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    nishant,
    Hopefully demand data on Monday(08/08) and Bulletin on Tuesday (08/09)

  23. #5098
    thank you !
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    nishant,

    That's a fair point, but this is how I look at it.

    Processing times have increased this year by (for example) 3 months. So, 3 months worth of applications would have missed approval this year. So in effect, we only have 9/12 worth of approvals this year.

    If nothing changes, we will have 12/12 next year, so an increase.

    If processing times decreased to the previous level, we might get 15/12 in a year. Unlikely.

    Only if processing times increased a further 3 months next year would the same number of approvals be seen.

    Don't get hung up on the actual numbers, they are an example only to illustrate the point..

  24. #5099
    Spec,

    The 2010 I-485 approvals had a quite a few cases whose I-140 was approved in 2009. The same thing happened this year. Quite a few I-485 approvals this year had their I-140 approved in 2010.

    I think that data is good for two purposes: Understanding denial rates for EB-1 and %age of EB1 applications out of the total pool of I-140 applications.

  25. #5100
    One thing totally apparent to me is the stupid rule of one visa number per dependent. Suppose it was not so, then just 14k EB1, leading to 26k SO to EB2, which would clean out 55k 485s, even if the rule begins being applied right now, EB2 would have around a 2 year wait only at worst. Sorry for digressing, couldn't help but see the benefits of this hypothetical proposal. I think this one, plus of course re-capture, are the two most uncontroversial and suitable proposals in a legislative fix.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I've been looking at these a bit further to try to understand what it might mean for next year.

    First there is a slight inconsistency with the 2010 figures.

    We know that there were 41,026 I-485 approvals in FY2010

    The figures show 13,744 total EB1 I-140 approvals for 2010.

    This gives a ratio of 2.99 to reach 41,026. We know from the DHS Statistics that the ratio was 2.4, so this is inconsistent.

    Taking the figures at face value and assuming the same conversion ratios as 2010, 17,676 prorated receipts in 2011 should have turned into 14,380 I-140 approvals, which would be around 35k I-485 approvals. In fact, because denial rates are slightly lower in 2011, the number would be slightly higher than that.

    If we assume that the FY2011 figure will actually become 26k I-485 approvals, then that is c. 25% less than expected (about 3 months worth).

    If we assume that everything continues at the present rate in 2012, then we might expect at least 35k EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012. The substantially lower denial rate on EB1C, if continued, would bring the figure over the 40k allocation.

    This might cause some concern for spillover numbers in FY2012, since it suggests that EB1 will not contribute very much next year, when it has been the major contributor this year.

    Bear in mind that the above makes quite a few assumptions and is a rather rough calculation.

    This is not something we didn't know already, but I wanted to start the process of quantifying it and prompting discussion.

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