EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Veni thanks. I understood 13%. Great way of looking at it. What about 25% and 10 and 5%? Whats teh logic?

Q,
You are correct, 4.5K denials = 100%, i have updated my post above.
Once we assume one variable (X) we can bring it down to two variables and two equations with Y>Z constraint.

Q,
When i plug 19% EB1 denial ratio (FY 2011 data) in the equations then based on PERM breakdown
EB2-i140 denial rate will be ~13% and EB3-i140 denial rate will be ~3%.

[veni001]

Veni thanks. I understood 13%. Great way of looking at it. What about 25% and 10 and 5%? Whats teh logic?


Spec you are right. CP is incremental. But now that has made it complicated since CP should be at least 10K. Right?
As per beating this to death ... it always helps to look at it from multiple angles. May be we used this data source. May be I am being senile!



The difference is backlog (ALL ... not just EB2IC though).

Teddy.... veni might have used 2 because this ratio is applied for all over EB category than just EB2 IC... just wondering...

I am using 2.4 from EB1-140 to 485 ratio based info from our FACTS AND DATA section

My approach is use 10 months EB1-i140 approval data and 10-01-2010 EB1 pending inventory to calculate FY 2011 EB1 demand.

[neospeed]

http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

In the above article, what does he referring to:

The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waiters

[pch053]

Nishant the possibility for both the extremes 0 and 7K is extremely minimum the answer is probably closer to the middle. The extremes are theoretical possibilities at best. Roughly 30-32K SOFAD has happened, another 7K happening is the best of the best case scenario and nothing happening is way way too conservative. Realistically the pace of the September bulletin should be slightly less than Aug which was only 2.5K. Even though this may seem theoretical in reality the range for September seems to be in the range 2.5K to 3K. Even last year September was more of a finisher month this maybe even more true because Jul was way too long a shot they tested the waters sufficiently in July. Lets hope for the best in September. The only possibility of 7-8K movement is if the agencies are slightly unsure of Eb1 + EB2 ROW and they may just move the dates to 15-AUG-2007 to play safe. If that happens then only some not all people current will get approved.

Teddy,
My feeling (not backed by thorough number crunching though, just my hunch) is also similar to what you are saying that reality might be somewhere between two extremes of 0K and 7K and going by last year's trend, the Sep bulletin was more like putting the finishing touches on the yearly spillover. I will surely be happy if I am proven wrong and the option of dates moving to Aug'07 even though all the current PDs don't get approval should be also a good thing. In this scenario, at least all the PWMBs can apply for I485 and from next year onwards, PWMB will be a thing of the past!

[Spectator]

I think I am pretty much in line with TK.

There appears to be a mistake in the table for NSC 2010 RFE. Either the total is 4,003 based on 2,470 EB1C RFE, or it is the 3,003 shown, in which case the EB1C total should probably be 1,470.

Based on prorating the numbers for the rest of the year then I saw the following.

Receipts for 2011 would be 17.6k which is slightly higher than 2010.

Approvals for 2011 would be 10.9k, a reduction of 20.5% based on 2010.

At the fairly constant rate of 2.4 I-485 approvals per I-140 for EB1, this would translate to 26.2k. I feel that is possible slightly high.

Using Approvals and Denials as Completions, the Denial Rate in 2010 was 22% and is 19% in 2011 to date.

Broken down, the denial rates were :

2010
EB1A -- 40%
EB1B --- 9%
EB1C -- 16%

2011 to Date
EB1A -- 38%
EB1B --- 8%
EB1C -- 11%

The lower approvals seems to reflect much longer processing times.

The RFE rates were 38% in 2010 and 31% in 2011 to date based on the receipt numbers, although it is not clear whether RFEs also include previously backlogged cases as well.

Unless there are many more adjudicators handling EB1 cases at TSC, those people can expect a much longer wait for adjudication.

The % breakdown of Approvals per sub category in 2011 to date is :

EB1A -- 24%
EB1B -- 26%
EB1C -- 50%

which isn't that much different from last year.

All the above said, some strange patterns in EB1 approvals can be seen in the final 2 months of the FY. It is difficult to tell what will happen this year. There are factors for both continued healthy approvals and the drop usually seen.

Given the backlog, my best guess would be around 24k EB1 approvals for the year, although it could be slightly higher or lower. August will be an interesting month to watch.

[TeddyKoochu]

I am using 2.4 from EB1-140 to 485 ratio based info from our FACTS AND DATA section

My approach is use 10 months EB1-i140 approval data and 10-01-2010 EB1 pending inventory to calculate FY 2011 EB1 demand.

Veni, I mis-read your multiplication was actually for the 2 quarters thanks for clarifying. We are coming up with different outcomes and values based on different approaches. I will definitely hope that you are right. Sogaddu, Veni calculation is great .

[Spectator]

http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

In the above article, what does he referring to:

The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waiters

neospeed,

You are not alone.

I couldn't work out what that statement meant either!

[soggadu]

Soggadu

SO and SOFAD both gives the same meaning visas spilled from other categories . I dont find any diff

they may sound as same but i think the difference is with including the regular quota for IC in SOFAD..otherwise why would we have two acronyms... my lay man logic...

[soggadu]

http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

In the above article, what does he referring to:

The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waiters

Wait a minute... so as of July 2011 only 4200 EB1 140 approvals...if we can treat this document official, then why are we doing other calculations... 4200*2.x = ~8.5K ... if we even consider prev years 140's etc... we should still have atleast 20K+ from EB1 right... why are we not considering this document????

[veni001]

The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2

I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)

FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)

If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.

AOS(485) Breakdown

EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )

CP Breakdown(Based on AOS Vs CP %)

EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345

http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

In the above article, what does he referring to:

The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waiters

neospeed,

You are not alone.

I couldn't work out what that statement meant either!

Spec; neospeed,

Even though i have used 25% EB1 denial rate in my above analysis (actual is 19%), EB1 usage (AOS & CP) per month is averaging about 2k.
Since the EB1-i140 data is dated July 19, 2011, i am assuming that it is referring estimated EB1 usage for August and September.

[soggadu]

Spec; neospeed,

Even though i have used 25% EB1 denial rate in my above analysis, EB1 usage (AOS & CP) per month is averaging about 2k.
Since the EB1-i140 data is dated July 19, 2011, i am assuming that it is referring estimated EB1 usage for August and September.

Veni...it is clearly stated that "The statistics reflect that as of JULY 2011 the usage is 4.2K..." very clear that it is for the current FY upto July ... bache log... if this document is true... 20K + more from EB1... then the question why didnt they move the dates in August if that is the case... god...i hate who ever invented the words "if" and "but"... or might be there is more to the document which we need to read...

[veni001]

Veni...it is clearly stated that "The statistics reflect that as of JULY 2011 the usage is 4.2K..." very clear that it is for the current FY upto July ... bache log... if this document is true... 20K + more from EB1... then the question why didnt they move the dates in August if that is the case... god...i hate who ever invented the words "if" and "but"...

soggadu,
Here is the language....i am not an attorney

"Since it is a statistics compiled as of July 19, 2011, it is fresh enough to get the picture of the two Service Center's I-140 processing volumes and processing backlogs in EB-1 category and total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year. The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases."

[familyguy]

4.2K number is not from the official document... I think attorney added some masala (comments) ...

[soggadu]

soggadu,
Here is the language....i am not an attorney

"Since it is a statistics compiled as of July 19, 2011, it is fresh enough to get the picture of the two Service Center's I-140 processing volumes and processing backlogs in EB-1 category and total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year. The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases."

"total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year" ...doesnt it mean total annual number? here they use "or to be consumed" clause so that might be the reason why they used "Will consume" instead... then what is the 8.7K total number then?... might be out of 8.7K total approvals only 4.2K approvals are used for approving 485's?

[veni001]

These statistics are for I-140, so a further 4.2k I-140 would translate to 10k I-485.

Adding the 4.2k to the 8.7k already approved would give around 31k I-485.

Adding 4.2k I-485 approvals to the 21k implied by the I-140 figures to date would give 25.1k I-485 approvals, which sounds fairly sensible. If that were the case, the "excluding denied cases" is totally superfluous.

I still can't work out what is means, given the language used.

Spec,
The document is referring "EB-1 numbers consumed..." which i would take it as 485 instead of i140.

[veni001]

"total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year" ...doesnt it mean total annual number? here they use "or to be consumed" clause so that might be the reason why they used "Will consume" instead...

soggadu,
As i said i am not very good at interpreting language used by attorneys , but based on the trending (FY2011 to-date) i would take it as estimated EB1 usage for August and September.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
As i said i am not very good at interpreting language used by attorneys , but based on the trending (FY2011 to-date) i would take it as estimated EB1 usage for August and September.

i understand veni...all of us are trying to get the best out of it in our opinion's... my final take before i shut my brains off... 4.2K total 140 turing into 8.7K 485, i know not very convincing but... over and out...

[qesehmk]

Friends thanks to neospeed the data is quite useful. It establishes the biggest piece in SOFAD which is EB1. Looking at the data ... its clear EB1 will yield about 17K SOFAD (i.e. 23K full year usage.). Can the usage be more or less? Its possible. But the trend is towards 17K SOFAD which is wonderfully supported by trackitt calculations as well. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ed-projections

So its quite reasonable to assume that the mean of the two projections in the link above is a reasonable estimate. i.e. 29K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K EB2IC brings to 34.6K as mean scenario which predicts teh dates to be in first week of JULY if the movement is SFM.

Its absolutely possible that the movement could be larger than that but then that would be BTM.

p.s. - In terms of receipts one can clearly see that the fundamental demand hasn't come down at all between 2010 and 2011. In fact even denial rate was higher in 2010 than 2011. Its the suspended state of many 140s in RFEs which is a beneficial thing for EB2ICs. On another note if in 2010 there weren't the ROW PERM surge in Q2/Q3 then EB2IC would already start the year at Mar 2007 in OCt 2010. But that not meant to be!

Additionally porting has now started in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year

Teddy is it significant enough to make a dent? EB3IC which are large buckets are not seeing any significant porting (2-3K max). So how much do you think ROW will offer? Besides porting is not just a function of applicant's desperation, its a function of job market as well. So wonder if you think ROW will be substantial.

Kanmani,
Total AOS and CP demand calculated( Q1+Q2 )= 55.3k which include 2.8k EB2I approvals( based on CO statement) and 2k EB2C approvals(based on EB2C - PD movement)

All approvals for Q1+Q2 not including EB2IC = 55.3-4.8 = 50.5k , at this rate full year demand as 50.5*2 = 101k (not including EB2IC approvals, since it will be counted towards net SOFAD)

Now total SOFAD to EB2IC = 140 -101 = 39K

Hope this makes it clear.

That was the simplistic approach I had used earlier but Spec rightly pointed out that CP numbers are not in there. So 39K is not realistic.

Q,
When i plug 19% EB1 denial ratio (FY 2011 data) in the equations then based on PERM breakdown
EB2-i140 denial rate will be ~13% and EB3-i140 denial rate will be ~3%.

Thats great! I am feeling quite comfortable about EB1 SOFAD at around 17K.

There appears to be a mistake in the table for NSC 2010 RFE. Either the total is 4,003 based on 2,470 EB1C RFE, or it is the 3,003 shown, in which case the EB1C total should probably be 1,470.

Spec I think the reason those numbers don't add up is because they are not additive. There are ebs and flows of USCIS processing and only show snapshot of their work in progress.

[skpanda]

Veni...it is clearly stated that "The statistics reflect that as of JULY 2011 the usage is 4.2K..." very clear that it is for the current FY upto July ... bache log... if this document is true... 20K + more from EB1... then the question why didnt they move the dates in August if that is the case... god...i hate who ever invented the words "if" and "but"... or might be there is more to the document which we need to read...

Statment may be a mistake:

From the Table -
In 2011 - There were
13,794 Receipts <-> 8712 Approvals (includes some RFEs that got approved) <-> 1998 Denials <-> 4401 RFEs (includes some RFEs that got approved later)

This to me means 8712 Approvals have already happened i.e. 19,602 numbers are gone (8712 * 2.25 for family). There could be atleast 2 to 3K numbers consumption for EB1 for rest of the FY 2011. This would yild us around 18 to 19K SOFAD from EB1.

PS: In my opinion, some of the RFEs that got approved later on are double counted in Approvals and RFEs.

I could be wrong.. but this is my understanding. Please feel free to tear my logic apart.

[Spectator]

Veni,

I was being picky and have deleted my post.

I think we can all agree it is very poorly worded.

I agree on balance, it is talking about I-485. But the article is about I-140.

No mention is made of I-485 in the entire article. There is no context given to the comment. We can work out how many I-485 might have been consumed to date - most people cannot.

So to say 4,200 for the rest of the year, without saying how many might have already been consumed adds no value. And what do denied cases have to do with it - they will never become additions. Why not just say approvals?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy is it significant enough to make a dent? EB3IC which are large buckets are not seeing any significant porting (2-3K max). So how much do you think ROW will offer? Besides porting is not just a function of applicant's desperation, its a function of job market as well. So wonder if you think ROW will be substantial.

I read several instances on Trackitt that people with EB3 ROW 2006 PD are porting or considering porting, for ROW I don’t think its appropriate to call it porting a new application in EB2 works well. This trend is beginning to pickup this year because EB3 ROW folks are frustrated with the way it is moving for a variety of reasons. The numbers would be less than what we are used to see for India but It would not be surprising if this causes up 2K uptick in EB2 ROW demand.

[nishant2200]

when we say there is delays in processing of EB1 and huge backlog, which may impact next year, doesn't it also mean that apps coming in into next year will also be hence actually be given visas late, assuming the delays remain same, and hence effectively this wont affect SOFAD next year, unless they ramp up processing times.

[veni001]

That was the simplistic approach I had used earlier but Spec rightly pointed out that CP numbers are not in there. So 39K is not realistic.

Q,
If you look at my calculation it does include CP based on (AOS/CP ratios), in any event the difference is only 4k net at the end.

Veni,

I was being picky and have deleted my post.

I think we can all agree it is very poorly worded.

I agree on balance, it is talking about I-485. But the article is about I-140.

No mention is made of I-485 in the entire article. There is no context given to the comment. We can work out how many I-485 might have been consumed to date - most people cannot.

So to say 4,200 for the rest of the year, without saying how many might have already been consumed adds no value. And what do denied cases have to do with it - they will never become additions. Why not just say approvals?

Spec,
Agree.

[Spectator]

when we say there is delays in processing of EB1 and huge backlog, which may impact next year, doesn't it also mean that apps coming in into next year will also be hence actually be given visas late, assuming the delays remain same, and hence effectively this wont affect SOFAD next year, unless they ramp up processing times.

nishant,

That's a fair point, but this is how I look at it.

Processing times have increased this year by (for example) 3 months. So, 3 months worth of applications would have missed approval this year. So in effect, we only have 9/12 worth of approvals this year.

If nothing changes, we will have 12/12 next year, so an increase.

If processing times decreased to the previous level, we might get 15/12 in a year. Unlikely.

Only if processing times increased a further 3 months next year would the same number of approvals be seen.

Don't get hung up on the actual numbers, they are an example only to illustrate the point..

[soggadu]

nishant,

That's a fair point, but this is how I look at it.

Processing times have increased this year by (for example) 3 months. So, 3 months worth of applications would have missed approval this year. So in effect, we only have 9/12 worth of approvals this year.

If nothing changes, we will have 12/12 next year, so an increase.

If processing times decreased to the previous level, we might get 15/12 in a year. Unlikely.

Only if processing times increased a further 3 months next year would the same number of approvals be seen.

Don't get hung up on the actual numbers, they are an example only to illustrate the point..

very meaningful explanation...good point...