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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #5001
    Friends following is the YouTube link of Dr. Arora's testimony, I hope you will all find it useful. This link was posted by user smuggymba on IV, Iam posting it here for everyone’s benefit.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtRXsP1-jDM

  2. #5002
    It's a great testimony. Thanks for sharing.

    The current crazy long wait of green card is killing all the motivations of chinese and indian eb immigrants.

    Many talented eb immigrants got locked up for many years in the same spot. this system is killing all of us.

    It's hurting eb immigrants, but also hurting the employers. EB immigrants are not happy and I can't believe people can work hard when they are not happy.


    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Friends following is the YouTube link of Dr. Arora's testimony, I hope you will all find it useful. This link was posted by user smuggymba on IV, Iam posting it here for everyone’s benefit.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtRXsP1-jDM

  3. #5003
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post

    veni .... great. so we are converging nicely. Thats where my head is.
    Q,
    Actually i have to offset 9.6k for IC for full year in calculating SOFAD instead of 4.8k (half year) in my calculation. This brings net SOFAD from my calculations to 39k for FY2011.

    SOFAD Breakdown
    EB1-18,000
    EB2ROWMP - 8,400
    EB2IC Reg - 5,600
    EB3- 0
    EB4 -0
    EB5- 7,000
    Total = 39k

    I have updated my previous post.
    Last edited by veni001; 07-29-2011 at 08:48 AM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  4. #5004
    I have moved all the distractions from yesterday into our "dirty linen bucket" at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...t-Want-To-Read

    If anybody wants to further speak on all those topics ... then that's the thread. Lets refocus on what we do best here - calculations - predictions and clarity.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  5. #5005
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Leo, for some reason I thought you are on 22nd June, not 8th June. I felt actually remorseful writing 15th June, was thinking of you all the while

    Glad you are on the 8th, and sincerely hope you can make it!
    Nishant2200,

    Just for the mental statisfaction can you move the dates by one more week to June22 . It really makes you to worry a lot when you have wait till May2012 for the dates to move past Jun 20th .

  6. #5006
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Q,
    Actually i have to offset 9.6k for IC for full year in calculating SOFAD instead of 4.8k (half year) in my calculation. This brings net SOFAD from my calculations to 39k for FY2011.

    SOFAD Breakdown
    EB1-18,000
    EB2ROWMP - 8,400
    EB2IC Reg - 5,600
    EB3- 0
    EB4 -0
    EB5- 7,000
    Total = 39k

    I have updated my previous post.
    My dear veni... thanks a lot for the numbers... can you please please please also tell me how much will be left for this sep bulletin...

  7. #5007
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    My dear veni... thanks a lot for the numbers... can you please please please also tell me how much will be left for this sep bulletin...
    soggadu,

    Based on the inventory and demand data, at least 32K SOFAD must have been applied until August'11 Visa Bulletin.
    Assuming no surge in EB1/EB2ROWMP processing/demand in the second half of FY2011, we can expect additional 7k to be applied to EB2IC in September Visa Bulletin.

    Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  8. #5008

    no...

    Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .[/QUOTE]

    Don't say that please....

  9. #5009
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    soggadu,

    Based on the inventory and demand data, at least 32K SOFAD must have been applied until August'11 Visa Bulletin.
    Assuming no surge in EB1/EB2ROWMP processing/demand in the second half of FY2011, we can expect additional 7k to be applied to EB2IC in September Visa Bulletin.

    Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .
    Thank u so much veni... that means... this should clear the backlog or near end of backlog... which is good... i am tired looking at people's backs standing in the line...not that they are bad!!!... meera number aage laooooo.....

  10. #5010
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rahil1 View Post
    no...
    Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .

    Don't say that please....
    rahil1,
    Even though i am optimistic about Sept VB, i like to keep it conservative for predictions.
    Last edited by veni001; 07-29-2011 at 10:31 AM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  11. #5011
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    rahil1,
    Even though i am optimistic about Sept VB, i like to keep it conservative for predictions.
    Only if those AILA EB1 stats cud be seen now. I am afraid to ask my lawyer as he is kind of moody, n don't want to invoke his ire!

    Hopefully Someone will get it for us.

  12. #5012
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Only if those AILA EB1 stats cud be seen now. I am afraid to ask my lawyer as he is kind of moody, n don't want to invoke his ire!

    Hopefully Someone will get it for us.
    I hope some one can get this info. Does any one have a lawyer friend affiliated with aila that can share this doc ?.

  13. #5013

    EB-1 I-140 stats from Feb 2011

    I know this is not the latest data - the latest data has 485 approval info. This one is I-140 approvals for EB-1 posted in Feb 2011. Hope this helps!

    http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

  14. #5014
    EB1 data posted on immigration-law.com


  15. #5015
    kd2008, there is no one faster than you bringing the data to our forum, kudos to you

  16. #5016
    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    kd2008, there is no one faster than you bringing the data to our forum, kudos to you
    Yeah..kd2008.. that was super-fast. Thank you!
    I thought we would have to wait till next week before we'd find it

  17. #5017
    2011 total EB1 140 approvals sofar 8,712,
    According to Veni, Q1+Q2 approvals 75% of 7k = 5250

    Q3 is close to 3000, atleast avg 1000 per month which is higher than previous 6 months, so EB1 small surge is happened and hence the movement in Aug bulletin

    another observation

    EB1-C receipts increased from 47% to 53% of total EB1 from fy2010 to fy2011 while approval rate changed from 52% to 50%
    Last edited by bieber; 07-29-2011 at 11:43 AM.

  18. #5018
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    EB1 data posted on immigration-law.com
    Thanks KD for the info, that was fast
    Last edited by neospeed; 07-29-2011 at 11:59 AM.

  19. #5019
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    EB1 data posted on immigration-law.com
    Kd2008,
    Great information.

    Quick Summary

    EB1-i140 Denial rate
    2010 -23%
    2011 -14.5%
    Overall is about 19%

    EB1-i140 RFE rate
    2010 -37.6%
    2011 -31.2%
    Overall is about 35%

    Bottom line only 8,712 EB1-i140 approvals(FY2011) as of July 19, 2011 - which reflect to about 21k demand for almost 10 months or 25k demand for full year. Which is very close to waht we have calculated(27k) in our i140 data and calculations (FACTS AND DATA SECTION)
    Last edited by veni001; 07-29-2011 at 11:50 AM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  20. #5020
    Quote Originally Posted by neospeed View Post
    I hope some one can get this info. Does any one have a lawyer friend affiliated with aila that can share this doc ?.
    I am indeed srisanth it seems. I thought of this again, and voila, in few minutes, kd2008 got the info!

  21. #5021
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Kd2008,
    Great information.

    Quick Summary

    EB1-i140 Denial rate
    2010 -23%
    2011 -14.5%
    Overall is about 19%

    EB1-i140 RFE rate
    2010 -37.6%
    2011 -31.2%
    Overall is about 35%

    Bottom line only 8,712 EB1-i140 approvals(FY2011) as of July 19, 2011 - which reflect to about 21k demand for almost 10 months or 25k demand for full year. Which is very close to waht we have calculated(27k) in our i140 data and calculations (FACTS AND DATA SECTION)
    So it means we are still on course for the at least 4k SOFAD more, if I am interpreting correctly.?
    Last edited by nishant2200; 07-29-2011 at 12:03 PM.

  22. #5022
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Veni,
    Just a quick clarification: in your SOFAD calculation, you have 18K FD from EB1. From the above EB1 data, the yearly demand is estimated to be 25K; in that case we should be expecting 15K FD from EB1, right? Or in other words, the FY11 SOFAD for EB2-I/C will reduce by 3K from your estimate of 39K (i.e. ~around 36K). Or, in other words, we will have around 4K remaining for the Sep bulletin. Am I interpreting the data correctly?

  23. #5023
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Kd2008,
    Great information.

    Quick Summary

    EB1-i140 Denial rate
    2010 -23%
    2011 -14.5%
    Overall is about 19%

    EB1-i140 RFE rate
    2010 -37.6%
    2011 -31.2%
    Overall is about 35%

    Bottom line only 8,712 EB1-i140 approvals(FY2011) as of July 19, 2011 - which reflect to about 21k demand for almost 10 months or 25k demand for full year. Which is very close to waht we have calculated(27k) in our i140 data and calculations (FACTS AND DATA SECTION)
    These are 140 approvals.....does this mean these applicants are documentarily qualified as well? Will USCIS to able to attach a visa to all the applicants in time?
    Regards
    Nat
    Last edited by natvyas; 07-29-2011 at 12:08 PM.

  24. #5024
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    I am indeed srisanth it seems. I thought of this again, and voila, in few minutes, kd2008 got the info!
    Sri.. in that case, please start thinking more and more that....in Sep VB , dates move towards Veni's upward projected target of 7K

  25. #5025
    Numbers have come in. Now the Spec, Veni, Teddy and Q will rise again fun fun fun

    this is the moment we strive here for! New data!

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